Harrington set for boost ahead of Augusta

This is always one of the trickiest weeks of the year for golf punters, sandwiched between the Players' Championship and the forthcoming US Masters. A world-class field always assemble at TPC Sugarloaf for the Bellsouth Classic, but there's always half a concern that players' minds are elsewhere. There's probably no good justification for that as this week's market leaders, Retief Goosen and Phil Mickelson have won the event three times in the last six years. The picture is further clouded though, by the fact that so many of the field had to endure the draining, nerve-racking experience of windy Sawgrass and the literally impossible greens we witnessed over the weekend.

Just what damage that experience might have had on some players' short-term confidence is anyone's guess. Aaron Oberholser, for instance, would have been a certain selection of mine had he not just hit 81 on Sunday, having led the tournament on his own on the 17th tee on Saturday. Goosen is another player I fear enormously here, on a course tailor-made for him and following a superb last 63 holes at Sawgrass. I'm almost certain to back Goose next week at Augusta but single-figure odds are just too short on this occasion. A safer strategy must be to side with players who would come into calculations anyway but are a little fresher having missed those two final rounds.

Conditions at Sugarloaf, should the wind blow as expected, tend to favour players used to chipping and putting on exposed greens. Naturally, the British, Irish and Australian players raised on such courses often come into their own here. Nobody fits the identikit of a Sugarloaf winner more than PADRAIG HARRINGTON, as two top-10s from three visits testifies. Pod also has a history of winning or being in contention the week before a Major, that fits a theory I have about him. Renowned for his work ethic on the range, Harrington has a tendency to peak just in time for the big event, only to get himself agitated at key moments in the Majors. The week before, though, we often see him relaxed and in peak-form. Missing the cut at Sawgrass, where he must have fancied his chances, may now work in his favour.

Moderate recent form can be the only justification for the 66/1 available on course specialist STEWART CINK. Cink clearly relishes the demands of Sugarloaf, having finished in the top-10 six times in the last 8 years. The last few weeks have been disappointing, but he had three top-15s at the start of the season. I'm sure we'll see a different player this week, on probably his best opportunity of the year. I've also got to include MATTHEW GOGGIN, who I've mentioned a couple of times this year at huge odds. A fortnight ago, when I'd overlooked him for the Honda Classic, the young Aussie only just missed out on the places and conditions aren't too dissimilar this week. Certainly, his form on windy, exposed Australian courses suggests he will go well this week so, aside a small each-way bet at 200/1 I suggest Goggin is worth a closer look for 2-balls and spreads.

The European Tour event, the Algarve Open, looks an absolute minefield for punters. A moderate field is headed by Nick Dougherty, who represents the class in the field along with Niclas Fasth and Bradley Dredge. None of those look particularly favoured by the short, narrow layout and I have a strong suspicion this could be won by a rank outsider.

Just a few small bets at decent prices looks the order of the day then. A fair strategy in this part of the world is to look for players from the region, who might feel more comfortable with the conditions, and three of my four selections are from Southern Europe. Firstly, though, England's DAVID LYNN looks the most likely player from the market leaders to produce his best form. Lynn has become a model of consistency lately with nine consecutive top-27 finishes, often in fields of greater depths. His chance looks extremely obvious on a course that he finished 5th 2 years ago.

Its high time Spain's JOSE-MANUEL LARA won again on the European Tour, with only a small win 8 years ago to his name. Much like Lynn, Lara is one of the most consistent players around without threatening to win nearly often enough. Only a few months ago, Lara finished 2nd and 6th in consecutive weeks in Spain. Back now in his favourite part of the world, and having finished close 9th here in 2004, 50/1 looks a nice price for a player bound to be there or thereabouts come the weekend.

I was also very surprised to see Lara's countryman GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO available at three figures back in Southern Europe. Rookie of the Year in 2005, this prodigy has been likened in some (excitable) quarters to a young Seve Ballesteros. Whatever the merits of that comparison, he has looked an exciting prospect in similar standard European Tour events, most notably when showing a mature temperament to win the Dutch Open. That win came at Hilversum, a short, narrow course not entirely dissimilar to Le Meridien Penina. Finally, have a small each-way bet on Italian EMANUELLE CANONICA. I never thought I'd see the day I'd tip this guy as he'd always looked a bottler but he put all that behind him with victory in last season's Italian Open. Canonica showed a liking for this place with consecutive top-10s on his last two visits, and has some good recent form with 9th place behind Tiger and co in Dubai.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

ALGARVE OPEN

1pt ew DAVID LYNN @ 28/1 (SKYBET, BET365)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO @ 100/1 (LADBROKES, CORALS)
0.5pts ew EMANUELLE CANONICA @ 80/1 (BETDIRECT, BET365)

BELLSOUTH CLASSIC

1pt ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 25/1 (SPORTING ODDS, SKYBET)
1pt ew STEWART CINK @ 66/1 (HILLS, LADBROKES, BET DIRECT)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 200/1 (SPORTING ODDS)

2006 STATS: (-106pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

TPC Sawgrass Preview

Hopefully this week offers a chance to reverse my poor recent form as the Players' Championship at Sawgrass is one of my three favourite events of the year. Widely known as the 5th Major, from next year this will have an even higher profile as it is moved to May. From a betting perspective, the unique demands of this stadium course usually offers more opportunities than the predictable Masters or the guessing game known as the USPGA. Players seem to either love or hate Sawgrass, with its tight rough, fast greens and stomach-churning finish. The island par-3 17th hole and long, water-threatened 18th represents the toughest finish in golf, with no lead absolutely certain to be enough as the finale approaches. Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Retief Goosen have never looked like winning here while Vijay Singh's record is patchy at best. Tiger Woods did win and come 2nd here when at his absolute peak, but has generally struggled and will need to be much more accurate than he has generally been of late to contend.

I doubt there's a course better suited to the talents of rising British star LUKE DONALD. Luke looks every inch a world class player nowadays, but on many courses a worry remains that he doesn't have the length off the tee that nearly all the other leading players possess. At Sawgrass, however, length is pretty much irrelevant compared to keeping the ball in play and away from the many hazards so with his ultra-consistent long game I expect Donald to build up a bank of high finishes in the 5th Major over the years. Despite landing a win in the invitational Target Challenge just before Christmas, victory in the Honda Classic a fortnight ago was a pivotal moment in his short career, as it showed he can win a top class event from the front after a few missed chances. Leading going into the final round here last year, I thought he lost nothing in defeat in one of the most exciting finishes of 2005.

Another player right in the thick of it last year was 2004 winner ADAM SCOTT. Scott was bidding for a very unlikely defence on that occasion in an event where defending champions have a dire record, but only lost his chance on the 71st hole. Despite a disappointing effort last week, I'm sticking with him as he looks far more likely to contend than nearly all the similarly or shorter priced contenders. The young Aussie also rates my best match bet of the week against David Toms, who hasn't finished higher than 12th in his last ten Sawgrass visits.

Much of the best value lies in the speciality markets this week. The Players' Championship is generally won by a class act, so there's a strong argument for choosing from amongst the top players in the outright market, but from further down the list, the same names appear in the top-10 and top-20 year after year. I have a shortlist of six Americans likely to go well but its best to play all of them in the top American market where we needn't take on either of the main selections. I'd be very disappointed to not get at least one place.

In particular two prices stand out here, TOM LEHMAN at 50/1 and JERRY KELLY at 80/1. US Ryder Cup captain Lehman has every chance of making his own team as a player and he holds a superb record on this course. I was amazed to get 80/1 on him for the same market last year when he tied for second with Donald and SCOTT VERPLANK. Arguably Lehman is in better form this time around and looks probably double the correct price here.

Accurate Kelly is another course specialist, with three top-11 finishes in five years. He certainly comes into the event in the best form for a long while, finishing 2nd and 7th in consecutive weeks before a missed cut at Bay Hill. I would have advised Kelly at 125/1 for the outright if it wasn't for the better value 80/1 for top American. Ultra-consistent Verplank must also be worth an interest here at 20/1 when he's only 33/1 against the whole field. Making up my US team are CHAD CAMPBELL, ZACH JOHNSON and DAVIS LOVE. Love's chance is obvious having twice won the event and shown his best form for a long while recently when reaching the World Matchplay final. Campbell has only the one good Sawgrass showing to his name, but plays hard courses well and has been much more consistent all year. As for Johnson, this accurate player looks made for Sawgrass and looked as likely a winner as anyone for a long way last year. He's come into form at just the right time with top efforts at the Matchplay and Ford Championship.

Several of these players represent good value for match bets. Campbell must be backed to beat Chris Dimarco on the well used horses for courses argument. As much as my respect for Dimarco has grown lately, I don't expect him to do anything this week on a course where he's never made the top-20. Alternatively Campbell is yet to miss a cut in 2006 so a high finish will be required to finish above him. Johnson and Lehman are worth siding with against the same player, Rory Sabbatini. Big-hitting Sabbatini has never looked suited to Sawgrass as five missed cuts and a 42nd place from six starts testifies.

Two spread bets also look worthy of a mention. Aside from Scott, I fancy two other Australians, NICK O'HERN and ROBERT ALLENBY, and spread look the best route. O'Hern has become the match and spread bet king in recent years, as well as the man you'd most like to lay when favourite. Despite apparently having no bottle, the left-hander is as consistent as they come and should love Sawgrass. On his first visit last year, Nick came back well from an opening 76 to finish a respectable 24th. I recommend a sell of his finishing position at 36, and a sell of Allenby at 33. I've always had Allenby down as a potential Sawgrass winner, but the clinching factor was a fine effort at Bay Hill at the weekend. Bob's form in his native Australia over the winter was genuinely world-class but it was re-assuring to see this multiple winner do something good in the States.

Betfair have at last added a top-10 market, along with Stan James and Skybet. This has always been a favourite market of mine, and I recommend backing several of these players here. Lehman is simply massive at 8/1, as are O'Hern, Allenby and Johnson at 8/1, 5/1 and 6/1 respectively. The best value though, has to be US Open champ MICHAEL CAMPBELL at 10/1. This is a classic case of over-reaction to one bad week. Missing the cut at Bay Hill was a disappointing effort but Cambo's schedule has been very light so far in 2006. Two of his last three Sawgrass efforts, when a fraction of the player he is today, resulted in top-15 finishes so clearly the course suits.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

3pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

TOP US PLAYER

1pt ew TOM LEHMAN @ 50/1 (STAN JAMES)
1pt ew JERRY KELLY @ 80/1 (BLUESQ)
1pt ew SCOTT VERPLANK @ 20/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET)
1pt ew CHAD CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 33/1 (BLUESQ, STAN JAMES)
1pt ew DAVIS LOVE @ 22/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

72-HOLE MATCH BETS

11pts ADAM SCOTT TO BEAT DAVID TOMS @ 10/11(BETFAIR, LADBROKES, BETFRED, TOTE)
11pts CHAD CAMPBELL TO BEAT CHRIS DIMARCO @ 10/11 (BETFRED, VICTOR CHANDLER)
11pts TOM LEHMAN TO BEAT RORY SABBATINI @ 10/11 (LADBROKES)
6pts ZACH JOHNSON @ 10/11 TO BEAT RORY SABBATINI @ 10/11 (TOTE)

TOP 10 FINISH

3pts MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 10/1 (STAN JAMES)
3pts NICK O'HERN @ 8/1 (SKYBET, STAN JAMES)
2pts TOM LEHMAN @ 8/1 (STAN JAMES)
2pts ROBERT ALLENBY @ 5/1 (STAN JAMES)
2pts ZACH JOHNSON @ 6/1 (STAN JAMES)
2pts JERRY KELLY @ 8/1 (STAN JAMES)

SPREADS

SELL NICK O'HERN FINISHING POSITION 3pts @ 36
SELL ROBERT ALLENBY FINISHING POSITION 2pts @ 33

2006 STATS: (-95.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

Cheltenham Day Two Advice

Well, yesterday wasn't exactly a dream start for myself and others who fancied the early favourites but don't let that put you off. I'm going for exactly the same bet of buying Racing Post Favourites as today's batch of jollies look very strong. Even in the wide open races, the RP fav looks by far the strongest of the market leaders.

The one good piece of news yesterday was Martin Pipe drawing a blank. Paul Nicholls certainly has an opportunity to sew up that match bet and with it the trainers' title today with big chances in every race. The two horses persistently touted as festival bankers both run today, and are both Nicholls trained, in Denman and KAUTO STAR. Both run in races where favourite backers have historically done well and its very hard to see either beaten. At the odds, preference is for the latter. The Queen Mother Champion Chase always seems to be dominated by the handful of superstar 2m chasers. In this field, only two fit that bill in the Nicholls favourite and legend Moscow Flyer. There's no reason for sentiment concerning the latter, who has looked well past his best this season. Perhaps there were valid excuses as some suggest, but lets not forget this horse won his first 19 completed chases in all sorts of conditions. This year's form suggests the inevitable decline of a 12yo. Alternatively, Kauto Star has put up the best performance this season by some way, with a mightly impressive Tingle Creek win over Ashleybrook. As for the rest, they just don't look in the same league or capable of the required level of improvement. According to Timeform's infamous ratings, Kauto Star is rated a massive 11lb ahead of the next best Fota Island, and possesses much more scope for improvement. Compare that margin to Denman, for example, who is 7lb ahead of the rest taking on all sorts of unexposed novices at only just above Evens.

The nap, though, has to be THE LISTENER in the 2.35. I can't see why this one isn't favourite based on his outstanding form this season. Time and again, we've seen that the credentials required for this race are jumping ability and stamina which this one has in abundance. I can only assume the inflated odds are a consequence of his unexpected fall at Lingfield last time. Take no notice - that mistake came completely out of the blue, the jockey was partly at fault and The Listener was in the process of delivering a beating to some decent rivals. I see this horse as potentially next year's Gold Cup winner, perhaps improving on the fortunes of top-class staying chaser stablemates Sir Rembrandt and Kingscliff. The RP fav in this one is Pipe's Commercial Flyer, the only one of the spread selections I don't particularly want to be with, but bearing in mind the stable's record with similar types he does come very much into the reckoning.

The Coral Cup at 4.00 is the usual cavalry charge and not a race for big hitters. Nevertheless, having studied it at length I reckon you can put a line through at least a third of the field, so with five places available at Paddy Power, Bluesq, Bet365, Stan James and Bet Direct there might be some value about. The one I like is IL DUCE at 25/1. His in-form trainer Alan King has two in the race, with Mughas the other. Mughas has a very solid chance having placed in the same race off a higher mark two years ago, so it may mean something that Robert Thornton has chosen Il Duce. Having only his fourth race of a light campaign, and as a horse with plenty of scope over this trip, I'm confident this one will run a big race. The RP fav here, the McCoy/McManus No Where To Hyde is the only one of the market leaders even in my calculations here.

Another race where the initial perception of lottery may be wrong is the Kim Muir Chase, for amateur riders at 4.40. Many of the runners here either won't stay, don't possess sufficient jumping prowess or are just badly out of form. Again the RP fav, Nicky Henderson's LIBERTHINE, stands out and looks an excelllent asset for the spread market. This was my biggest winner at Cheltenham last year, clearly the horse excels off a strong pace at Cheltenham. There are few shrewder stables in races of this type than Henderson, who reports the horse in great form and laid out for the race. As well as being the clear pick on the formbook, Liberthine could enjoy a jockey advantage over many of the others as his pilot Sam Waley-Cohen always rides and has proved himself more than competent.

The Bumper, at 5.40, has been dominated by Willie Mullins in the past so its no surprise to see him dominate the market, with what appears to be the first choice on jockey bookings Equus Maximus currently a hot favourite. However, I think the Mullins' factor might be a bit of an over-reaction as the two that stand out as the best prospects to me are KICKS FOR FREE and Wichita Linesman. The latter is ridden by questionable amateur JP Magnier so preference must be for the Nicholls runner, who has looked extremely impressive so far.

Good Luck!

BUY RACING POST FAVOURITES 5 @ 49

2.35 4pts win THE LISTENER (NAP)
3.15 8pts win KAUTO STAR
4.00 1pt ew IL DUCE
4.40 2pts win LIBERTHINE
5.15 3pts win KICKS FOR FREE

Chinese event vulnerable to English invaders

With all this 24 hour cricket and Cheltenham to trade, I've barely had the time this week to write a lengthy preview of the week's events but here is the betting advice anyway. The two events are the TCL Classic in China, and one of the big US Tour events of the year in the Bay Hill Invitational. China looks by far the better heat for pre-tournament bets, with a weak field likely to be dominated by a handful of world class performers in DAVID HOWELL, defending champ PAUL CASEY, Nick Dougherty, Paul McGinley and CHARL SCHWARTZEL.

It was infuriating to see Nick Dougherty's putter go cold at the weekend thus making him come up painfully short of shock winner Mardan Mamat, who holed everything in sight. Notably, the winning score was a few shots behind the previous winning scores at Laguna National by Dougherty and Colin Montgomerie. My theory is that Dougherty should have won by a few shots against a weak field, and had there been one more class act around they would probably have won instead. The way my form has been with tipping Dougherty he'll probably win but this week is a glorified putting contest and he will have to improve massively in that department to justify shorter odds than last week. Another potential drawback for Nick is that he was suffering from blisters on his feet in last week's humid conditions. Having won in China before Christmas, Howell is clearly taking this event seriously enough as I would have expected him to be at Bay Hill. There's a big gulf in class between Howell and 99% of this field, none of whom would expect to have enough to finish top-12 at Doral as Howell did on his last start, let alone top the Order of Merit. His chance is extremely obvious and the odds far from prohibitive.

Some say defending champions are poor value, as they have so much extra pressure and media work to contend with. There's probably some merit to that in the more competitive events but all winter we've been seeing defending champions follow up on these minor tours. Casey has been a model of consistency in recent months and has won twice in China now. He defeated McGinley in a play-off last year, the other obvious candidate I'm prepared to overlook as he is just too short a price for an infrequent winner, though his form in the States has been excellent.

Instead, I'm going for a player at double the price of that quartet, but who will probably achieve more in the game eventually than any of them. Laguna National was never the type of course where we could expect to see the best of CHARL SCHWARTZEL, and his disappointing weekend may account for what seem inflated odds this week. On the evidence of last year, this course is a birdie-fest tailor-made for big hitters like Schwartzel and defending champion Casey.

As for Bay Hill, its never done much for me gambling wise. That probably has much to do with Tiger Woods' previous infallibility here when he won four years in a row from 2000 - 2003. However, it is interesting that since Woods' accuracy from the tee deteriorated two years ago, he has failed miserably on this course. On the basis of his exceptional start to 2006, I was tempted to pile into the Tiger as a certainty, but on reflection that accuracy is yet to return so I'd rather sit out for the time being and trade his price in-running.

This event is normally won by a class act, but question marks also surround the form of fellow superstars Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen. Sergio Garcia has claims on past course forms if for once he has a good putting week, but with all these overlooked ADAM SCOTT ends up in the staking plan almost by process of elimination. His 2nd placing at the Nissan Open confirm that the Aussie is in form, and his long straight driving are a pivotal asset here, as 3rd place behind Chad Campbell in 2004 shows. This is a big time of the year for Scott, who also has a big chance at Sawgrass next week.

The best value bet in the event though has to be MICHAEL CAMPBELL at 66/1. For years, Cambo was the biggest underachiever in the game, especially in the States, but Bay Hill was the one US venue where the old-style Cambell ever excelled, having finished runner-up to Tiger there. Since winning the US Open in June, Michael is now a completely different player on the world stage and a threat to all in any event he tees it up. I doubt we'll see these kind of odds around for much longer, including next week's Sawgrass jamboree in which he must be a contender.

Finally, have a point each-way on SCOTT VERPLANK. I don't like backing this guy to win as he has shown major bottling tendencies, but he has a very obvious chance this week to get into the shake-up. Extremely consistent from tee to green, essential on this track, Verplank finished tied 3rd with Scott in 2003 and will fancy his chances of a big week on the back of an excellent 2006 campaign so far.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

TCL CLASSIC

8pts win DAVID HOWELL @ 8/1 (LADBROKES)
4pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 11/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew CHARL SCHWARTZEL @ 28/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

BAY HILL INVITATIONAL

1.5pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 22/1 (SKYBET)
1pt ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew SCOTT VERPLANK @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-68.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

Cheltenham Day One Advice

Having studied Timeform and what seems a like a million other guides obsessively for the last few days, I've drawn some fairly strong conclusions about the first day. As hard as I try to find decent-priced value, I just keep coming back to some very obvious favourites. The dilemma then is always whether their short prices are worth the risk, but thankfully there's a much better way of siding with all of todays 'good things' while not suffering too much heartache if one runs a cracker and gets touched off in a photo-finish.

The bet is to buy the Racing Post Favourites Index at 47. Scoring is calculated at 25 points per win, 10 points per 2nd placing, 5 pts per third. So two winners out of six will guarantee a profit, while only a truly disastrous day would be especially costly. The first five selections all have blindlingly obvious chances. In the first, SWEET WAKE creates exactly the type of price dilemma I referred to. The optimism and money behind this unexposed animal suggests we could well be getting a preview of next year's Champion Hurdle winner, but is less than 3/1 value in such a competitive field? I suspect he is, as I'm struggling too many dangerous rivals, but prefer the spread betting route in case he comes second.

The Arkle is the highlight of the day in my opinion, and RACING DEMON represents my bet of the day. This one was my nap at last year's festival, and I was absolutely gutted to see a 25/1 winner go down the pan when he was caught on the line by No Refuge having traded 1.01 in-running. As high quality as the field is, I do think Racing Demon has by far the greatest potential, and probably boasts the best form on offer in his beating of Hoo La Baloo. Henrietta Knight's cotton-wool strategy has meant we've seen less of this prospect than might have otherwise been the case, hence the attractive 5/1 on offer. Its impossible to not draw comparisons with Best Mate, and Knight knew exactly what she was doing when shielding her superstar from unnecessary races in unsuitable conditions.

In the Champion, Brave Inca is a lovely horse to have onside in the spread bet, but I think the price is plenty short enough at 2/1, especially with the dangerous Arcalis around. Here. my idea of the each-way value is Nicky Richards' FAASEL. Despite the poor record of 5yos in this race, I'm expecting we'll see his best run of the season today as he simply loves the conditions today, with a fast pace guaranteed.

Similarly in the 4.00, once again there is a question mark surrounding the value of favourite, MOULIN RICHE. A winner at the Festival last year, I think this one could be thrown in but there are still plenty of dangers around such as Dun Doire and No Half Session. With JP expected to play, I doubt any more than 4/1 will be available on Moulin Riche, but I'm delighted to have him onside with the RP Favourites spread bet.

The Sporting Index Cross-Country Chase (4.35) looks a nightmare punting race. Edna Bolger probably has the solution with three solid contenders, the best of which looks to be GOOD STEP who is our spread bet selection. I have a suspicion here that the race will be wide open, and the market leaders might be a bit short. Try a couple of each-way bets on horses certain to stay the marathon trip and who like the course in LORD JACK and MRS BEE.

The final race, the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle, looks exactly the type of lottery one might expect from the race title with none of the 24 runners confidently ruled out. However, using the ever-wise Timeform previews, I might just have found one thrown in. ROSECLIFF looks a guarateed improver who has been laid out for this by his shrewd connections. It was no surprise to see lots of money around for this one last night. Also in this race, I think Paul Nicholls' runner OPERA MUNDI has some improvement and rates a decent each-way bet at attractive odds. Our spread selection in this race is Nicky Henderson's ROYALS DARLING, which is the one of our selections I don't fancy particularly but obviously you'd never write off a Henderson runner in such a contest.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

BUY RACING POST FAVOURITES INDEX 3pts @ 47

2.35 4pts win RACING DEMON @ SP
3.15 1pt ew FAASEL @ SP
4.40 1pt ew LORD JACK @ 25/1 (SPORTING ODDS, UKBETTING)
4.40 1pt ew MRS BEE @ 20/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
5.20 2pts win ROSECLIFF @ 9/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
5.20 0.5pts ew OPERA MUNDI @ SP

For several reasons, this week's Singapore Masters at Laguna National has consistently proved to be the one Asian event in which the Europeans have been completely dominant. One explanation may be that, as this is played at the tail-end of the Far East Swing, the Europeans have acclimatised and become used to the very different greens. Another may be the linksy type fairways that are as in keeping with Britain as they are with the Asian norm. While it usually pays to keep leading locals like Thongchai Jaidee and Jyoti Randhawa on side in this part of the world, none of the top Asians have any great record at the course.

Last year's event was a classic case in point, as Europeans filled 8 of the top 10 places. The class acts in the field, Colin Montgomerie and Thomas Bjorn, dominated affairs alongside eventual winner NICK DOUGHERTY. The only player on show worthy of mentioning in the same breath as that lot is Sweden's Niclas Fasth. Fasth played poorly on his sole visit so the main selection has to be the Englishman. That win last year was a breakthrough for Nick, who then went on to have a tremendously consistent summer in much higher company. As I've said before with bad timing, he is one of the rising stars in world golf and I expect at least one win in 2006. Two top-tens in the Middle East last month show good recent form, and this is the best chance he will have. 14/1 looks a rock-solid each-way bet.

I don't fancy Jaidee at all this week, who has never prospered at Laguna, and while Randhawa holds the course record, he has been very disappointing lately. The best Asian chance probably lies with promising Indian Shiv Kapur, but I prefer the chances of last week's runner-up ANDREW BUCKLE. Buckle is a former Australian amateur champion, and pulled off the impressive and rare feat of winning his first ever professional tournament in Queensland four years ago. A consistent contender on the Asian Tour, Buckle's recent form in much better company in the Middle East prior to a fine effort last weekend suggests he is quite a prospect. Certainly, I didn't think he lost anything in defeat as Simon Dyson hit a superb final round. Buckle's chance was lost with one disastrous quadruple bogey and otherwise played well. He should see that missed opportunity as a learning curve and I expect the good form to continue this week.

A player I've always thought capable of winning a run of the mill European event is Ireland's PETER LAWRIE. Since graduating from the Challenge Tour after a series of wins, Lawrie has been in contention several times and was voted rookie of the year. He hasn't looked too fazed by the pressure on those occasions, and like most Irish players is comfortable with linksy conditions. 5th last year, Peter looks a very fair bet at big odds to step up on that in a much weaker line up.

Lawrie's fellow Irishman Padraig Harrington is in the States this week to defend his Honda Classic title at Mirasol, Palm Beach, Florida. The Sunrise course can become extremely testing if the wind blows, though early forecasts suggest nothing too horrific. Either way, a top class short game is essential here as the greens are elevated and difficult to hold. It is also very much a thinking man's course, so the experienced players could possibly have an advantage not seen on the regular, straightforward target golf courses we see so often on the PGA Tour.

The chance of many of the market leaders is obvious, but for various reasons they make little betting appeal to me. David Toms is a worthy favourite after an impressive run of figures but by his own admission is struggling with his long game. Davis Love's chance would stand out on a course he finished runner-up two years ago, but this is his third week in a row and played 126 holes at the World Matchplay. He's talking a good game about his current fitness, but 14/1 under such circumstances on a player with notorious back problems doesn't interest me. Love's conquerer at La Costa, Geoff Ogilvy, would probably have been in the staking plan but is now half the price having entered the big league and back to back wins are rare anyway. Robert Allenby is another whose ongoing health worries deter me from a bet. As for Harrington, he could very well defend his title as he certainly possesses all the right attributes, but hasn't shown anywhere near enough in 2006 to merit a bet at less than 20/1.

So further down the betting, I've found a couple of old hands who might represent a bit of value on a course that should suit. JESPER PARNEVIK won this event on a different track five years ago before his game entered the doldrums but has shown much promise so far in 2006. Jesper has only missed one cut so far this year, finished second at the Bob Hope and tenth the following week at Torrey Pines. Ignore two midfield finishes on both previous visits here, as his game was all over the place at the time. I would be especially excited about the Swede's chances were the wind to blow, as he has proved consistently to be world class under those conditions.

Veteran BRAD FAXON showed he was still capable of winning at this level at the Buick Championship last August, and has started the season solidly enough without disturbing the judges. One of the finest putters and chippers around, Faxon is clearly suited to this week's demands as top ten finishes on both visits to the course demonstrate.

Finally at three figure odds, lets give NATHAN GREEN a chance to re-establish his early season promise. I've known about Green from following the Australasian Tour for years, where he has consistently performed well on the tougher golf courses. It was no surprise therefore to see this new graduate to the PGA Tour perform so well at tough Waialae and Torrey Pines with two top-5 finishes. It has to be accepted that on the second occasion he fell apart under pressure from Tiger, but he'd hardly be the first rookie to do the same and hopefully it will serve as a useful experience.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

SINGAPORE MASTERS

4pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ANDREW BUCKLE @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PETER LAWRIE @ 100/1 (LADBROKES)

HONDA CLASSIC

1pt ew JESPER PARNEVIK @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BRAD FAXON @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew NATHAN GREEN @ 125/1 (SPORTING ODDS, HILLS, PADDY POWER)

2006 STATS: (-68.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

Vijay Can Land Long Overdue Doral Triumph

Though slightly lacking the stature of a Major championship, this week's Ford Championship at Doral comes pretty close for status with the strongest field assembled for a strokeplay event anywhere so far in 2006 with nine of the world's top ten on show. The course, the Blue Monster, partly lives up to its name with water hazards galore. Time was when accuracy from tee to green was everything at Doral, though in recent years the long-hitters have begun to come into their own with improved technology making a long drive into the rough no great handicap for Woods et al. In fact, looking at recent results here, Doral looks almost as favourable to the elite players as any course on tour with the exception of Augusta. There's always a temptation to pick out big-priced each-way fancies, but there seems little point this week as I expect at least four of those market leaders to make the top-10.

In perfect scoring conditions last year, a resurgent TIGER WOODS regained his World No 1 slot, touching off a peak form Phil Mickelson with a quality leaderboard trailing far behind. Mickelson is in nowhere near the form of last year, and is readily opposed on a course where previously he had always struggled on the greens. But Woods simply must be in the shake up, and there seems to be some over-reaction in his price to a completely irrelevant defeat in 18-hole matchplay to Chad Campbell last week. Tiger's form in the first round against Stephen Ames was absolutely scintillating and proves he is somewhere near his best. And he has already shown in Dubai and Torrey Pines this year that he doesn't have to play at his absolute peak to defeat world class fields.

VIJAY SINGH, though, looks the best each-way bet on the basis of an extremely consistent course record despite never winning, with five top-5 finishes from his last eight visits, including the last three years consecutively. This time last year he arrived as the world's leading player though Tiger has since laid any of that talk to rest. Nevertheless, at 10 points bigger than Woods, the Fijian has to come into the equation. I was quite impressed with his form at La Costa last week on a course and format that have never suited and 7th on his previous outing at Pebble Beach confirmed that he remains in form. With Vijay, everything revolves around the weakest part of his game with the putter, but he looked slightly more confident in that area last week. Having failed so far to follow up on the promise of his fine showing at the Mercedes in the opening event of the year, this could be the moment for a first win of 2006.

Others who must come into it are previous champions Jim Furyk and Ernie Els. Furyk may well have made the staking plan on a course he adores, were it not for the fact that his odds have been duly shortened. I fear Ernie greatly too, but I'm still not entirely convinced everything is 100% with his game following a long injury. Similarly, Retief Goosen would come into it on past form, but looked below his peak at La Costa.

The European Tour moves on to Indonesia, but with Doral dominating the schedule its no surprise to see a very weak turnout. The leading Asians dominate the market and will take plenty of beating. Thongchai Jaidee is favourite as usual, but hardly qualifies as value at 7/1. I'm going to give another chance to defending champion THAWORN WIRATCHANT, despite a poor weekend carrying our money in Malaysia recently. To my mind, there's very little between him and Jaidee for the honour of leading Asian, with Indians Jyoti Randhawa and Shiv Kapur close up behind. In fact, the bet of the week is to get with all four of them in IGSport's Asian hotshots market. The scoring works like this: 20 points for a top-10 finish, 20 points bonus for winning, 20 points bonus if all 4 make the cut. The market can be bought at 42 which looks very cheap considering how poor the opposition is.

In such a poor field, some of the lesser, consistent players have to come into contention. Australian MARCUS FRASER regularly makes cuts and top-30s in higher company, which is form to be taken seriously at this level. Fraser has actually shown at least equivalent form in this part of the world than in his native Australia so looks well worth a speculative each-way punt at 80/1

It wouldn't surprise me in the least were a three figure winner to emerge this week. So at 125/1, have a small interest on Sweden's FREDRIK WIDMARK. Widmark was a revelation on the Challenge Tour last season and has started fairly well in the higher grade so far, going well for a long way in Malaysia recently. Twice a winner on the lesser Tour last year among a string of consistent high finishes, at least we know he's capable of holding it together when the pressure is on. Even if this isn't his week, he's a big-priced player to keep an eye on this season.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

INDONESIAN OPEN

2pts ew THAWORN WIRATCHANT @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, BET365, CORALS GO 18/1)
1pt ew MARCUS FRASER @ 80/1 (PADDY POWER, VICTOR CHANDLER)
0.5pts ew FREDRIK WIDMARK @ 125/1 (BETFRED, VICTOR CHANDLER, HILLS)

BUY ASIAN HOTSHOTS @ 42 (IGSPORT)

FORD CHAMPIONSHIP AT DORAL

6pts win TIGER WOODS @ 7/2 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, BLUESQ GO 14/1)