World Snooker Championship Betting Preview
There is no better illustration of just how open a sport snooker has become than the list of recent tournament winners. The 13 main knockout events since the beginning of 2006 have yielded 11 different winners, with only Graeme Dott and Neil Robertson winning two. I can also think of at least four other players who I consider to have decent chances in the highlight of the gambling year, the 888.com World Championship which begins on Saturday in Sheffield.
Dott looks a better player than he did a year ago when landing one of my most memorable punts at 66/1. Far from turning out to be a fluke, he has defied many expectations and is now provisionally ranked World No 1. This year the odds are merely 14/1, shortened since an impressive win in the recent China Open and a very manageable draw. History is against him though, with no player having ever successfully defended their first World Championship at the Crucible. And back-to-back tournament winners just don’t seem to happen anymore. For all his qualities as a match player, Dott remains vulnerable to a top-class opponent and no value for a repeat triumph.
In fact that top quarter looks open to an upset in my view. The obvious players are Dott and Stephen Maguire, while Mark Williams would be a massive contender if he somehow could return to form. There’s been no sign of that this year from the twice former World Champion, and Maguire too remains wildly inconsistent. The other five players in the quarter all have plenty of previous Crucible form. Marco Fu reached the semis last year, Ian McCulloch the same in 2005. Joe Swail reached the semis back in 2001 and remains a Crucible favourite, while Antony Hamilton and Joe Perry have both made the quarter-finals. Rather than looking for the tournament winner in this quarter, I’m having a speculative punt on Swail and Perry at decent odds to win the quarter.
With snooker so open the season rankings are not always very reflective and consequently, lop-sided draws are frequent. Its no different this year with the ‘Quarter of Death’ containing Ronnie O’Sullivan, Ding Junhui, John Higgins, Neil Robertson, Ryan Day and Barry Hawkins. For anyone who managed to get 40/1 about Robbo when I advised it last year, I suggest laying the bet off at half the odds leaving a free bet. The young Australian does have a fine chance, but every match of the tournament looks certain to be a tough test from that draw.
The same comment applies to the tournament favourite, Ronnie O’Sullivan. As always, the tournament’s destiny depends on the Rocket’s state of mind and form. My suspicion is that, having been given the worst possible first-round draw he will beat Ding impressively. That will spark the usual crazy plunge on the public’s favourite player, but I have great doubts that Ronnie will maintain his best form for 17 days. And opponents like Robertson and Higgins will be every bit as tough as Ding even before the semi-finals.
Higgins is the best bet in the top-half in my view. I still hold the view that Higgins has been a better player over the last decade than his one world title suggests. This time last year it was he who went off at far too short odds with a tough draw and duly lost in the first-round. This time round I fancy him to get past Michael Holt and Barry Hawkins without too much trouble before it gets difficult from the quarter-finals onwards. This year’s rather generous double-figure odds are the consequence of a generally disappointing year, partially blamed on a mid-season cue change. But Higgins looked in much better form in China, and had previously played top quality snooker in York and Kilkenny so should be well-prepared now. The only player in the top-half of the draw who I’d make favourite against him is Ronnie, and even there I would give Higgins a very decent chance.
The bottom half of the draw looks far less competitive, especially in terms of the non-seeds. In the third quarter, its hard to see beyond SHAUN MURPHY, Ken Doherty and MATTHEW STEVENS. Murphy has played the best snooker out of these three in the past year, especially in Malta and Wales since the turn of the year. He looks more than capable of reproducing the scintillating potting form shown when landing a shock first tournament in this flagship event at 150/1 two years ago. First-round opponent Judd Trump is widely mentioned as a future World Champion, but his qualifying results don’t suggest he’s ready to contend here just yet. Should Murphy land the odds here, he would then at worst ways face Steve Davis in the last-16, a man he’s trounced in both of the last two years over best-of-25. Murphy seems to prefer the longer matches and looks very much the one to beat in this section.
Stevens too could be overpriced given his Crucible record. Despite consistently failing in the season’s bread and butter tournaments where most games are played over best of 9, the Welshman has only failed to reach the last-8 at Sheffield once since 1998 and has twice gone agonisingly close to becoming World Champion only to get touched off in memorable finals by Murphy and Williams. Despite a declining ranking, Stevens retains all his ability and is no forlorn hope to yet land the sport’s ultimate prize. The odds of 22/1 look good value, especially considering a relatively straightforward opener against Mark Delaney.
In the bottom quarter, Stephen Hendry and PETER EBDON dominate the betting, but don’t rule out 40/1 chance MARK SELBY. Hendry and Ebdon both have easy starts against Dave Gilbert and Nigel Bond so will probably trade shorter than their current odds as other seeds bite the dust early on. If they do meet in the quarters my preference would be for Ebdon who looks the better player over long matches nowadays. I’m not worried about Ebdon’s indifferent form since winning the UK Championship last December when he decisively beat Hendry in the final. He’s another player who distinctly improves over longer frames and seems to plan his season around the Crucible. Like Higgins, a second world title would be the icing on a tremendous career.
But to get to the quarters, Ebdon may have to beat Selby in the last-16. The only thing deterring me from backing Selby on the outright is that, because of his non-seed status, backing him in some sort of game by game accumulator will probably represent better value than the 40/1 available. I make him my first round nap at 4/5 to eliminate Stephen Lee and will press on from there if he wins. My strategy would be to re-invest any profit from the Lee match on an each-way outright bet before the second round.
Selby needs a good run to make the elite top-16 for next season, progress that has taken longer than expected after he burst onto the scene reaching the 2003 Scottish Open final as an unknown. He played some brilliant snooker at the Crucible last year to eliminate Higgins and emerged with credit from a cracking second-round match against Williams. I’m very confident Selby will break his tournament duck sooner rather than later, and though its asking a lot to win your first tournament at the Crucible but that hasn’t stopped Dott and Murphy in the last two years.
Good Luck!
888.COM WORLD SNOOKER CHAMPIONSHIPS
ADVISED BETS
5pts ew JOHN HIGGINS @ 14/1 (BETFRED)
5pts win SHAUN MURPHY @ 10/1 (PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES)
5pts ew PETER EBDON @ 14/1 (BETFRED, EXPEKT)
3pts ew MATTHEW STEVENS @ 22/1 (CORALS)
1ST ROUND
15pts MARK SELBY @ 4/5 (VS STEPHEN LEE)
TO WIN 1ST QUARTER
2.5pts JOE PERRY @ 14/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
2.5pts JOE SWAIL @ 16/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
Dott looks a better player than he did a year ago when landing one of my most memorable punts at 66/1. Far from turning out to be a fluke, he has defied many expectations and is now provisionally ranked World No 1. This year the odds are merely 14/1, shortened since an impressive win in the recent China Open and a very manageable draw. History is against him though, with no player having ever successfully defended their first World Championship at the Crucible. And back-to-back tournament winners just don’t seem to happen anymore. For all his qualities as a match player, Dott remains vulnerable to a top-class opponent and no value for a repeat triumph.
In fact that top quarter looks open to an upset in my view. The obvious players are Dott and Stephen Maguire, while Mark Williams would be a massive contender if he somehow could return to form. There’s been no sign of that this year from the twice former World Champion, and Maguire too remains wildly inconsistent. The other five players in the quarter all have plenty of previous Crucible form. Marco Fu reached the semis last year, Ian McCulloch the same in 2005. Joe Swail reached the semis back in 2001 and remains a Crucible favourite, while Antony Hamilton and Joe Perry have both made the quarter-finals. Rather than looking for the tournament winner in this quarter, I’m having a speculative punt on Swail and Perry at decent odds to win the quarter.
With snooker so open the season rankings are not always very reflective and consequently, lop-sided draws are frequent. Its no different this year with the ‘Quarter of Death’ containing Ronnie O’Sullivan, Ding Junhui, John Higgins, Neil Robertson, Ryan Day and Barry Hawkins. For anyone who managed to get 40/1 about Robbo when I advised it last year, I suggest laying the bet off at half the odds leaving a free bet. The young Australian does have a fine chance, but every match of the tournament looks certain to be a tough test from that draw.
The same comment applies to the tournament favourite, Ronnie O’Sullivan. As always, the tournament’s destiny depends on the Rocket’s state of mind and form. My suspicion is that, having been given the worst possible first-round draw he will beat Ding impressively. That will spark the usual crazy plunge on the public’s favourite player, but I have great doubts that Ronnie will maintain his best form for 17 days. And opponents like Robertson and Higgins will be every bit as tough as Ding even before the semi-finals.
Higgins is the best bet in the top-half in my view. I still hold the view that Higgins has been a better player over the last decade than his one world title suggests. This time last year it was he who went off at far too short odds with a tough draw and duly lost in the first-round. This time round I fancy him to get past Michael Holt and Barry Hawkins without too much trouble before it gets difficult from the quarter-finals onwards. This year’s rather generous double-figure odds are the consequence of a generally disappointing year, partially blamed on a mid-season cue change. But Higgins looked in much better form in China, and had previously played top quality snooker in York and Kilkenny so should be well-prepared now. The only player in the top-half of the draw who I’d make favourite against him is Ronnie, and even there I would give Higgins a very decent chance.
The bottom half of the draw looks far less competitive, especially in terms of the non-seeds. In the third quarter, its hard to see beyond SHAUN MURPHY, Ken Doherty and MATTHEW STEVENS. Murphy has played the best snooker out of these three in the past year, especially in Malta and Wales since the turn of the year. He looks more than capable of reproducing the scintillating potting form shown when landing a shock first tournament in this flagship event at 150/1 two years ago. First-round opponent Judd Trump is widely mentioned as a future World Champion, but his qualifying results don’t suggest he’s ready to contend here just yet. Should Murphy land the odds here, he would then at worst ways face Steve Davis in the last-16, a man he’s trounced in both of the last two years over best-of-25. Murphy seems to prefer the longer matches and looks very much the one to beat in this section.
Stevens too could be overpriced given his Crucible record. Despite consistently failing in the season’s bread and butter tournaments where most games are played over best of 9, the Welshman has only failed to reach the last-8 at Sheffield once since 1998 and has twice gone agonisingly close to becoming World Champion only to get touched off in memorable finals by Murphy and Williams. Despite a declining ranking, Stevens retains all his ability and is no forlorn hope to yet land the sport’s ultimate prize. The odds of 22/1 look good value, especially considering a relatively straightforward opener against Mark Delaney.
In the bottom quarter, Stephen Hendry and PETER EBDON dominate the betting, but don’t rule out 40/1 chance MARK SELBY. Hendry and Ebdon both have easy starts against Dave Gilbert and Nigel Bond so will probably trade shorter than their current odds as other seeds bite the dust early on. If they do meet in the quarters my preference would be for Ebdon who looks the better player over long matches nowadays. I’m not worried about Ebdon’s indifferent form since winning the UK Championship last December when he decisively beat Hendry in the final. He’s another player who distinctly improves over longer frames and seems to plan his season around the Crucible. Like Higgins, a second world title would be the icing on a tremendous career.
But to get to the quarters, Ebdon may have to beat Selby in the last-16. The only thing deterring me from backing Selby on the outright is that, because of his non-seed status, backing him in some sort of game by game accumulator will probably represent better value than the 40/1 available. I make him my first round nap at 4/5 to eliminate Stephen Lee and will press on from there if he wins. My strategy would be to re-invest any profit from the Lee match on an each-way outright bet before the second round.
Selby needs a good run to make the elite top-16 for next season, progress that has taken longer than expected after he burst onto the scene reaching the 2003 Scottish Open final as an unknown. He played some brilliant snooker at the Crucible last year to eliminate Higgins and emerged with credit from a cracking second-round match against Williams. I’m very confident Selby will break his tournament duck sooner rather than later, and though its asking a lot to win your first tournament at the Crucible but that hasn’t stopped Dott and Murphy in the last two years.
Good Luck!
888.COM WORLD SNOOKER CHAMPIONSHIPS
ADVISED BETS
5pts ew JOHN HIGGINS @ 14/1 (BETFRED)
5pts win SHAUN MURPHY @ 10/1 (PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES)
5pts ew PETER EBDON @ 14/1 (BETFRED, EXPEKT)
3pts ew MATTHEW STEVENS @ 22/1 (CORALS)
1ST ROUND
15pts MARK SELBY @ 4/5 (VS STEPHEN LEE)
TO WIN 1ST QUARTER
2.5pts JOE PERRY @ 14/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
2.5pts JOE SWAIL @ 16/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 6:07 AM
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