Chinese event vulnerable to English invaders
With all this 24 hour cricket and Cheltenham to trade, I've barely had the time this week to write a lengthy preview of the week's events but here is the betting advice anyway. The two events are the TCL Classic in China, and one of the big US Tour events of the year in the Bay Hill Invitational. China looks by far the better heat for pre-tournament bets, with a weak field likely to be dominated by a handful of world class performers in DAVID HOWELL, defending champ PAUL CASEY, Nick Dougherty, Paul McGinley and CHARL SCHWARTZEL.
It was infuriating to see Nick Dougherty's putter go cold at the weekend thus making him come up painfully short of shock winner Mardan Mamat, who holed everything in sight. Notably, the winning score was a few shots behind the previous winning scores at Laguna National by Dougherty and Colin Montgomerie. My theory is that Dougherty should have won by a few shots against a weak field, and had there been one more class act around they would probably have won instead. The way my form has been with tipping Dougherty he'll probably win but this week is a glorified putting contest and he will have to improve massively in that department to justify shorter odds than last week. Another potential drawback for Nick is that he was suffering from blisters on his feet in last week's humid conditions. Having won in China before Christmas, Howell is clearly taking this event seriously enough as I would have expected him to be at Bay Hill. There's a big gulf in class between Howell and 99% of this field, none of whom would expect to have enough to finish top-12 at Doral as Howell did on his last start, let alone top the Order of Merit. His chance is extremely obvious and the odds far from prohibitive.
Some say defending champions are poor value, as they have so much extra pressure and media work to contend with. There's probably some merit to that in the more competitive events but all winter we've been seeing defending champions follow up on these minor tours. Casey has been a model of consistency in recent months and has won twice in China now. He defeated McGinley in a play-off last year, the other obvious candidate I'm prepared to overlook as he is just too short a price for an infrequent winner, though his form in the States has been excellent.
Instead, I'm going for a player at double the price of that quartet, but who will probably achieve more in the game eventually than any of them. Laguna National was never the type of course where we could expect to see the best of CHARL SCHWARTZEL, and his disappointing weekend may account for what seem inflated odds this week. On the evidence of last year, this course is a birdie-fest tailor-made for big hitters like Schwartzel and defending champion Casey.
As for Bay Hill, its never done much for me gambling wise. That probably has much to do with Tiger Woods' previous infallibility here when he won four years in a row from 2000 - 2003. However, it is interesting that since Woods' accuracy from the tee deteriorated two years ago, he has failed miserably on this course. On the basis of his exceptional start to 2006, I was tempted to pile into the Tiger as a certainty, but on reflection that accuracy is yet to return so I'd rather sit out for the time being and trade his price in-running.
This event is normally won by a class act, but question marks also surround the form of fellow superstars Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen. Sergio Garcia has claims on past course forms if for once he has a good putting week, but with all these overlooked ADAM SCOTT ends up in the staking plan almost by process of elimination. His 2nd placing at the Nissan Open confirm that the Aussie is in form, and his long straight driving are a pivotal asset here, as 3rd place behind Chad Campbell in 2004 shows. This is a big time of the year for Scott, who also has a big chance at Sawgrass next week.
The best value bet in the event though has to be MICHAEL CAMPBELL at 66/1. For years, Cambo was the biggest underachiever in the game, especially in the States, but Bay Hill was the one US venue where the old-style Cambell ever excelled, having finished runner-up to Tiger there. Since winning the US Open in June, Michael is now a completely different player on the world stage and a threat to all in any event he tees it up. I doubt we'll see these kind of odds around for much longer, including next week's Sawgrass jamboree in which he must be a contender.
Finally, have a point each-way on SCOTT VERPLANK. I don't like backing this guy to win as he has shown major bottling tendencies, but he has a very obvious chance this week to get into the shake-up. Extremely consistent from tee to green, essential on this track, Verplank finished tied 3rd with Scott in 2003 and will fancy his chances of a big week on the back of an excellent 2006 campaign so far.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
TCL CLASSIC
8pts win DAVID HOWELL @ 8/1 (LADBROKES)
4pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 11/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew CHARL SCHWARTZEL @ 28/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
BAY HILL INVITATIONAL
1.5pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 22/1 (SKYBET)
1pt ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew SCOTT VERPLANK @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-68.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
It was infuriating to see Nick Dougherty's putter go cold at the weekend thus making him come up painfully short of shock winner Mardan Mamat, who holed everything in sight. Notably, the winning score was a few shots behind the previous winning scores at Laguna National by Dougherty and Colin Montgomerie. My theory is that Dougherty should have won by a few shots against a weak field, and had there been one more class act around they would probably have won instead. The way my form has been with tipping Dougherty he'll probably win but this week is a glorified putting contest and he will have to improve massively in that department to justify shorter odds than last week. Another potential drawback for Nick is that he was suffering from blisters on his feet in last week's humid conditions. Having won in China before Christmas, Howell is clearly taking this event seriously enough as I would have expected him to be at Bay Hill. There's a big gulf in class between Howell and 99% of this field, none of whom would expect to have enough to finish top-12 at Doral as Howell did on his last start, let alone top the Order of Merit. His chance is extremely obvious and the odds far from prohibitive.
Some say defending champions are poor value, as they have so much extra pressure and media work to contend with. There's probably some merit to that in the more competitive events but all winter we've been seeing defending champions follow up on these minor tours. Casey has been a model of consistency in recent months and has won twice in China now. He defeated McGinley in a play-off last year, the other obvious candidate I'm prepared to overlook as he is just too short a price for an infrequent winner, though his form in the States has been excellent.
Instead, I'm going for a player at double the price of that quartet, but who will probably achieve more in the game eventually than any of them. Laguna National was never the type of course where we could expect to see the best of CHARL SCHWARTZEL, and his disappointing weekend may account for what seem inflated odds this week. On the evidence of last year, this course is a birdie-fest tailor-made for big hitters like Schwartzel and defending champion Casey.
As for Bay Hill, its never done much for me gambling wise. That probably has much to do with Tiger Woods' previous infallibility here when he won four years in a row from 2000 - 2003. However, it is interesting that since Woods' accuracy from the tee deteriorated two years ago, he has failed miserably on this course. On the basis of his exceptional start to 2006, I was tempted to pile into the Tiger as a certainty, but on reflection that accuracy is yet to return so I'd rather sit out for the time being and trade his price in-running.
This event is normally won by a class act, but question marks also surround the form of fellow superstars Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen. Sergio Garcia has claims on past course forms if for once he has a good putting week, but with all these overlooked ADAM SCOTT ends up in the staking plan almost by process of elimination. His 2nd placing at the Nissan Open confirm that the Aussie is in form, and his long straight driving are a pivotal asset here, as 3rd place behind Chad Campbell in 2004 shows. This is a big time of the year for Scott, who also has a big chance at Sawgrass next week.
The best value bet in the event though has to be MICHAEL CAMPBELL at 66/1. For years, Cambo was the biggest underachiever in the game, especially in the States, but Bay Hill was the one US venue where the old-style Cambell ever excelled, having finished runner-up to Tiger there. Since winning the US Open in June, Michael is now a completely different player on the world stage and a threat to all in any event he tees it up. I doubt we'll see these kind of odds around for much longer, including next week's Sawgrass jamboree in which he must be a contender.
Finally, have a point each-way on SCOTT VERPLANK. I don't like backing this guy to win as he has shown major bottling tendencies, but he has a very obvious chance this week to get into the shake-up. Extremely consistent from tee to green, essential on this track, Verplank finished tied 3rd with Scott in 2003 and will fancy his chances of a big week on the back of an excellent 2006 campaign so far.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
TCL CLASSIC
8pts win DAVID HOWELL @ 8/1 (LADBROKES)
4pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 11/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew CHARL SCHWARTZEL @ 28/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
BAY HILL INVITATIONAL
1.5pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 22/1 (SKYBET)
1pt ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew SCOTT VERPLANK @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-68.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:43 AM
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