Malta Cup Snooker Preview
Though its always nice to see some televised snooker, there have been a couple of early disappointments already ahead of next week's Malta Cup. Firstly Ronnie O'Sullivan's decision to miss the event is a blow, not so much to a tournament that he never takes seriously anyway, but to my punting plans. Opposing him at short-odds in these overseas events has been a goldmine over the years.
Secondly, there is a new format to come to terms with. A field of 20 are split into four groups, to play six frame matches on a round-robin league basis. The winner of each group qualifies for the semi-finals. We're already used to round robin in the Grand Prix, and to six frame matches where the draw is a possibility from the Premier League. The unique characteristic here though is that with only one qualifier from each group, there are going to be an awful lot of meaningless matches towards the end of the group stage.
Nevertheless, all of this makes little or no difference to whether there is any punting value to be found. In fact, given the restricted field and rather lop-sided draw this may not turn out to be the hardest puzzle to solve. Of the 20 starters, home stars Drago and Borg can be confidently written off. Given the propensity in snooker over recent years to produce shock winners, particularly in second division events like this, everybody else holds some sort of chance. Indeed the player third from last in the betting, Dominic Dale, has already won a ranking event this season.
However, on the basis of their performances this season and most recently at Wembley, there are a number of players I couldn't consider backing. Peter Ebdon and Graeme Dott were woeful, and though he reached the final their conqueror Stephen Lee looks a very unlikely winner on all recent form.
The draw could make matters easier. Three of the top-five in the betting - Maguire, Selby and Murphy - are in the same group, meaning only one can reach the semis. As any games between those three look toss of a coin affairs, there's no sense in betting on them until we know which one has emerged from the group stage.
In the same half of the draw, albeit in a much easier group, is DING JUNHUI. Ding hardly screams value at just 13/2 considering he hasn't made a final for over a year, but looks way ahead of the rest of his group. The struggling Ebdon, Dott and Dale are all in this section along with MARK WILLIAMS so I recommend backing Ding and Williams in the hope of building a strong trading position for the semi-final stage.
Its been a long time since I backed former dual world champ Williams, who is struggling to maintain his top-32 place and by extension his career. However, I felt he played much, much better in the last two events and was a bit unlucky to bump into Maguire and then a back-to-form Ken Doherty. 40/1 in this limited field is certainly worth a crack, especially as he's one of the few to have produced his best in these overseas events.
The crucial point with the draw though is that it leaves only one 'heavyweight' in the top-half - John Higgins. And while the world champion is always respected, there's no doubt that he too has struggled for form and focus this season. There was little sign of improvement at Wembley, so I'll be surprised to see him bounce back quickly in an event for which he too could struggle to motivate himself.
I much prefer the two players in Higgins' group that are now vying for the status of "Best player yet to win on the main tour', RYAN DAY and ALI CARTER, now that Mark Selby has got that monkey off his back. With outsider Borg and average Joe Perry the other members of this group, Day and Carter look by far the most likely beneficiaries of a Higgins slip and reasonable betting value at 21 and 26 respectively.
The other group in the top-half looks more tricky, with Lee, KEN DOHERTY, Joe Swail, Neil Robertson and Marco Fu scrapping out what should be a series of tight matches for a place in the semis. Preference here is for Doherty, who played by far the best snooker of these at Wembley. Again, Ken is another player who should always be respected in this overseas events given a strong record.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
8pts DING JUNHUI @ 13/2 (BETDIRECT, STAN JAMES)
3pts ew RYAN DAY @ 20/1 (GENERAL)
3pts ew ALI CARTER @ 25/1 (GENERAL)
2pts ew KEN DOHERTY @ 20/1 (SPORTING BET)
2pts ew MARK WILLIAMS 40/1 (VCBET, SPORTINGBET)
Secondly, there is a new format to come to terms with. A field of 20 are split into four groups, to play six frame matches on a round-robin league basis. The winner of each group qualifies for the semi-finals. We're already used to round robin in the Grand Prix, and to six frame matches where the draw is a possibility from the Premier League. The unique characteristic here though is that with only one qualifier from each group, there are going to be an awful lot of meaningless matches towards the end of the group stage.
Nevertheless, all of this makes little or no difference to whether there is any punting value to be found. In fact, given the restricted field and rather lop-sided draw this may not turn out to be the hardest puzzle to solve. Of the 20 starters, home stars Drago and Borg can be confidently written off. Given the propensity in snooker over recent years to produce shock winners, particularly in second division events like this, everybody else holds some sort of chance. Indeed the player third from last in the betting, Dominic Dale, has already won a ranking event this season.
However, on the basis of their performances this season and most recently at Wembley, there are a number of players I couldn't consider backing. Peter Ebdon and Graeme Dott were woeful, and though he reached the final their conqueror Stephen Lee looks a very unlikely winner on all recent form.
The draw could make matters easier. Three of the top-five in the betting - Maguire, Selby and Murphy - are in the same group, meaning only one can reach the semis. As any games between those three look toss of a coin affairs, there's no sense in betting on them until we know which one has emerged from the group stage.
In the same half of the draw, albeit in a much easier group, is DING JUNHUI. Ding hardly screams value at just 13/2 considering he hasn't made a final for over a year, but looks way ahead of the rest of his group. The struggling Ebdon, Dott and Dale are all in this section along with MARK WILLIAMS so I recommend backing Ding and Williams in the hope of building a strong trading position for the semi-final stage.
Its been a long time since I backed former dual world champ Williams, who is struggling to maintain his top-32 place and by extension his career. However, I felt he played much, much better in the last two events and was a bit unlucky to bump into Maguire and then a back-to-form Ken Doherty. 40/1 in this limited field is certainly worth a crack, especially as he's one of the few to have produced his best in these overseas events.
The crucial point with the draw though is that it leaves only one 'heavyweight' in the top-half - John Higgins. And while the world champion is always respected, there's no doubt that he too has struggled for form and focus this season. There was little sign of improvement at Wembley, so I'll be surprised to see him bounce back quickly in an event for which he too could struggle to motivate himself.
I much prefer the two players in Higgins' group that are now vying for the status of "Best player yet to win on the main tour', RYAN DAY and ALI CARTER, now that Mark Selby has got that monkey off his back. With outsider Borg and average Joe Perry the other members of this group, Day and Carter look by far the most likely beneficiaries of a Higgins slip and reasonable betting value at 21 and 26 respectively.
The other group in the top-half looks more tricky, with Lee, KEN DOHERTY, Joe Swail, Neil Robertson and Marco Fu scrapping out what should be a series of tight matches for a place in the semis. Preference here is for Doherty, who played by far the best snooker of these at Wembley. Again, Ken is another player who should always be respected in this overseas events given a strong record.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
8pts DING JUNHUI @ 13/2 (BETDIRECT, STAN JAMES)
3pts ew RYAN DAY @ 20/1 (GENERAL)
3pts ew ALI CARTER @ 25/1 (GENERAL)
2pts ew KEN DOHERTY @ 20/1 (SPORTING BET)
2pts ew MARK WILLIAMS 40/1 (VCBET, SPORTINGBET)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 7:11 AM
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