Thursday, November 04, 2004

The Beginning Of The End For The US Empire

What a bad, bad week for anybody with even the vaguest of progressive political beliefs. Having had our hopes lifted by the widespread expectation of a Kerry victory early Wednesday morning, Bush’s comfortable re-election came as a cruel hammer blow.

For the last 4 years, I’d often found myself defending the country against the tide of anti-Americanism brought about by Bush and his crusaders. I felt it was harsh to blame the country as only 1 in 4 eligible US citizens actually voted Republican in 2000. He didn’t win the popular vote and without their chums in the Supreme Court, Al Gore would have been president. Having won with a clear majority on a much higher turnout, this argument no longer holds. It has to be accepted that US culture is now firmly entrenched in a mire of religious conservatism, with prejudices so deeply felt that many have decided to ignore reason and evidence in favour of believing whatever spin their ‘commander-in-chief’ and his corporate allies offer them.

Of course, all the sympathy in the world must go to the 50 million Americans who did see through it. One can only imagine what it must be like to have your country hijacked by evangelicals. I’m sure nobody would blame any of them who decided to emigrate to Canada or Europe. As for the rest of us, we must now get used to the fact that the greatest democracy on earth is now a theocratic oligarchy and that the post-war era of progressive world leadership from the US is now well and truly over.

And this is where, if there is any, consolation can be found. Under the neo-conservatives, the American empire is unsustainable. Having been left as the world’s only superpower after the demise of the USSR, power has gone to the heads of America’s military industrial complex. They seem to have come to the conclusion that sheer economic and military strength is enough on its own to yield whatever results they want.

This is wrong and, typically of the neo-conservatives, simply the fantasy result of their own biased analysis of recent history. The US attained its current hegemony role by leading a progressive alliance since WW2. The growth of multi-lateral institutions and international law, the rebirth of Japan and South-East Asian ‘tiger’ economies and the development of Nato were the result of pragmatic engagement from successive Presidents. Kennedy caught the mood of people around the world with his progressive civil rights agenda, Nixon engaged with China, Reagan and Bush Snr showed admirable leadership in bringing the Cold War to a close. Clinton’s peace process in the Middle East, despite ultimately failing, continued to convey the impression that the US were ultimately conciliators rather than crusaders.

Along with political leadership, dynamic US capitalism and Hollywood successfully promoted the country’s image across the globe. In the aftermath of 9/11, the almost universal sympathy and goodwill summed up the positive view most of the world – disregarding the tiny percentage of political extremists – felt towards the US. Despite the misgivings most foreign governments already had about Bush, he had no trouble developing a coalition to drive the Taliban out of Afghanistan.

It seems incredible that in just 3 years, directly as a result of the Bush presidency, most of that goodwill has been squandered. American voters may remain ignorant of the quagmire that has become Iraq while Fox and other Republican friendly media avoid asking challenging questions, but this can’t last forever. If Bush has any intent whatsoever of US troops leaving a stable Iraq, he will need help from other countries beyond the UK, Australia and Poland. Yet there seems little if any chance of the rifts being mended, especially while Haliburton continue to win closed contracts and ideologues like Rumsfeld, Cheney and Wolfowitz continue to deliberately undermine the UN. Instead, buoyed by their apparent new electoral mandate, a more conciliatory approach is very unlikely.

The exhorbitant costs of this war are the first real sign of the US suffering imperial overstretch. Bush has turned a massive budget surplus into a huge and rising deficit, just as unemployment as risen and the price of oil touches $50 a barrel. This is a circle that can’t be squared. The US economy is more dependent on cheap oil than any other yet the country’s actions in the Middle East are doing nothing to calm markets. Long-term, with India and China consuming more oil by the day, the days of cheap oil will disappear forever. And if the neo-cons have their way and the US adopts an even more aggressive stance towards Iraq, Syria, Venezuela or anyone else who dares to oppose the will of corporate America, all of these problems will get much, much worse.

I’m sure there will be many a wry smile on the face of Democrats as Bush is forced to deal with the consequences of his actions. So far, he has managed to keep his electoral coalition together as the public have given his atrocious economic record the benefit of the doubt in order to unite around fear and religious superstition. Yet here again, by playing to the prejudices of his audience with fundamentalist stances on abortion and gay marriage, Bush has dealt his country’s image around the world another enormous blow.

Things haven't quite reached the position of apartheid South Africa yet, but Bush seems unconcerned about creating more enemies abroad. The anti-Bush coalition now consists of environmentalists, liberals (or indeed anyone of a vaguely moderate perspective), gays, Muslims, scientists and even Conservative Europeans. There will certainly come a time when the US needs to turn to the world again. When it does it may find we’ve all looked the other way.