Els set for glorious return

I'm quite sure all golf fans, and indeed all reasonable minded human beings, will take the opportunity to wish the nicest guy in sport, ERNIE ELS, a successful comeback after several months out with injury at this week's Nedbank Challenge at Sun City, South Africa. As always, 12 world-class players gather for this rich invitational event, with Ernie and compatriot Retief Goosen heading the market.

Between them, and Sergio Garcia, Goose and Ernie have made this tournament their own in recent years. Defending champion Goosen though, has been disappointing on recent outings and can't possibly be backed at a best price of 7/2, and Sergio remains unbackable while his putting remains in crisis. Its notable that Ernie has chosen this event as his comeback, as he originally targetted the New Year, so I'm expecting the Big Easy to be fit and ready. Certainly, Els has the natural talent to win straight after a lay-off. The undisputed King of Sun City, with three titles to his name, a fully-fit and in-form Ernie would be nearer 2/1 than the 9/2 on offer. Take the tip as I'm expecting a big comeback from a man known for starting the season well.

Of the rest, Jim Furyk looks way too short at single figures, while Adam Scott has to deal with very different conditions to the links he struggled on in Australia last week. I prefer CHRIS DIMARCO, who has moved up a level in world golf this year since his gutsy play-off defeat to Tiger at Augusta and his star performance at the Presidents Cup. Having shown some form at Sun City on previous visits, Chris shouldn't be far off the places and looks a decent trade at least.

I could just see LUKE DONALD finally nailing his first win of 2005 this late in the day. The lack of a win must be a disappointment to the Wycombe man but he's still performed with credit consistently all season in the States and remains an outstanding prospect. Sun City has been toughened up, placing a greater emphasis on tee to green accuracy, an area of the game in which Luke has few peers. The clinching factor for me is that Donald has remained in fine form at the end of the season when many others have lost interest.

Regular readers may have noticed a couple of weeks ago that I broke a self-imposed rule and paid the price for it. After numerous brainstorms, collapses and generally erratic golf, I made a rule earlier in the year to never back THOMAS BJORN again. Well, this week really is last chance saloon for Thomas and I, but I just can't resist the price of 12/1 to win the Hong Kong Open.

The case against is obvious. Despite possessing as much talent as the best, Bjorn has thrown in some real stinkers when in contention. Most famously, he blew a golden opportunity to win the 2003 Open when taking three shots to get out of a bunker, but I never really held that against him as he would hardly be the first to bottle a Major. What infuriated me was his persistent ability to find a bizarre double bogey from nowhere to ruin a hot birdie streak. This time last year in Asia, Bjorn looked in great nick and a certain winner only to self-destruct every time. Nevertheless since then, he may have buried that hoodoo by winning at Forest Of Arden in gritty fashion and then only losing out by a shot in the USPGA, having played a flawless back nine. The fact remains that those two performances at the Open and PGA are the closest any European has come to winning a Major this century. Bjorn remains a world class player, and in a limited field like this simply cannot be ignored. A repetition of his excellent fifth two outings ago in the same country would probably be enough to win this week.

The principal opposition comes from last week's winner PAUL CASEY and Colin Montgomerie. Casey's win at the weekend showed once again how little strength in depth there is in these Asian events and how a top player can win without being anywhere near his best. Despite missing two critical short putts in the closing stages, a barrage of lesser rivals failed miserably to go past Casey who sat in the clubhouse for an hour before returning to win a play-off. The Englishman has been extremely consistent just lately and will surely be on the premises again here as he aims for his third 2005 win in Asia.

Monty's chance is obvious were he to repeat the late season form that propelled him to an eighth Order of Merit but there is a strong suggestion that he is struggling to raise his game so quickly after an exhausting effort. Since winning the OOM at Valderrama, Colin's two efforts have been extremely disappointing. And as much as I don't want to take anything away from Monty, it should be remembered that his only victory in the past 20 months came in the Dunhill Links, where he looked anything but convinving on the final day and only won because his main opponent, Kenny Ferrie, literally fell apart when the pressure was on.

Last year four of the top five places in this tournament were filled by Miguel Angel Jiminez, Bjorn, Padraig Harrington and David Howell, so clearly this is a course where the cream can be expected to rise to the top. The case for the Europeans is strengthened further by the fact that the two leading Asians, Jaidee and Wiratchant, have very moderate records here. With Harrington and Howell absent, Jiminez in nowhere near the form of last year, and KJ Choi rather inconsistent of late, the only other leading contender who makes any appeal is NICK DOUGHERTY. Admittedly, I'm having to overlook last week's poor effort when Nick simply never got going in China, but on the basis of his overall 2005 form and particularly his fine effort on his penultimate outing in Hong Kong behind Howell and Woods, 25/1 still makes plenty of each-way appeal.

The ANZ Tour moves on to its regular venue at Coolum Resort for the Australian PGA Championship. Sadly again us Brits will once again be deprived of live televised coverage though, of course, this is no obstacle to my betting intentions. Moonah Links really delivered a beating to several players and it might be sensible to avoid those who suffered badly over the weekend.

A strong field is headed by US Open champ Michael Campbell and Stuart Appleby. Campbell is always to be feared down under, but is overlooked this week as he missed the cut on his only previous Coolum visit and might just be a bit tired after a hectic end to the campaign, just a few days after returning from the Grand Slam event in Hawaii. Appleby is more likely, having finished third here in 2003 and losing nothing in defeat at the weekend, where he very much had the worst of the weather. There was a stage early on Sunday that I thought Apples would complete a superb weekend comeback but he quickly faded. As this week's test is slightly less suitable and at single figure odds, I'm looking for bigger prices.

All things considered, I'm going to have to break an even tighter rule than the one concerning Thomas Bjorn and back perennial loser NICK O'HERN. Coolum was the scene of Nick's one and only career victory back in 1999, and I'm taking a chance that the positive memories can do the trick as surely he must win again soon. O'Hern's form in Europe over the past couple of years has been superbly consistent, and his last two efforts when 3rd behind Howell and Tiger in Hong Kong, and 2nd at the weekend's Australian Open very much mark the left-hander down as the man to beat. If recent outings on home turf are anything to go by, we should have little trouble getting into contention for at least a place - O'Hern has finished top-8 on six of his last seven outings in Australia.

One man I definitely have my eye on both this week and for the coming season is WADE ORMSBY. As a rookie in 2003, Ormsby was bang in contention here before dropping back to 7th on the final nine holes so obviously gets on with the course. Some decent finishes at the end of the European season suggested a profitable winter lay ahead for this fine prospect, and missing the cut at Moonah might work in his favour as he comes to Coolum fresh as opposed to so many others. 100/1 looks tremendous each-way value.

Finally, I'm taking a small each-way chance on another very hot prospect, CAMILIO VILLEGAS. I must confess my first hand viewings of Villegas are extremely limited as he plies his trade on the Nationwide Tour which is never televised here. But his results and reputation suggest he has a big future in the game and should be one of the most exciting recruits to the PGA Tour this coming season. The Colombian looked set for a place at the weekend before a couple of late bogeys, but his record in Australia shows he likes it out here and may well have been underestimated by the bookies at 50/1.

NEDBANK CHALLENGE

6pts win ERNIE ELS @ 9/2 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 16/1 (HILLS, BOYLES)
1.5pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (TOTESPORT)

HONG KONG OPEN

3pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
4pts win PAUL CASEY @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 25/1 (BETFRED, BET DIRECT, SKYBET)

AUSTRALIAN PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

2.5pts ew NICK O'HERN @ 14/1 (CORALS, LADBROKES)
1pt ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew WADE ORMSBY @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2005 STATISTICS: +69.25pts

Apples the bet at Moonah Links

For an insomniac such as myself, this week marks the beginning of one of my favourite stretches of the year as the Australasian season gets under way. The next three weeks sees the Australian PGA and Masters but first there is the small matter of the Australian Open at Moonah Links. At approximately the same time, there is a decent European Tour event taking place, the Volvo China Open. Both look great betting heats.

First to Australia. As we have seen time and again, links golf is a specialised art and usually the same contenders emerge in tournaments played on such courses, even more so on the tougher ones. Should the wind arrive, Moonah Links is reported to be one of the hardest around and I can see plenty of big numbers being run up by players struggling in the conditions and failing to reach greens in regulation. Defending champion Peter Lonard clearly has mastered the art of links, and is now aiming to become the first player to win three consecutive Opens for 59 years. Its a worry that he will be under such intense media attention as well as having to overcome jetlag and cope with vastly different greens than at last week's World Cup. Nevertheless, it would be foolish to write off Lonard, as his record at home is simply awesome. His last 11 events in Australia have yielded five wins and no finish below 8th.

All good runs must come to an end though, and I have a feeling that this year might just be the turn of STUART APPLEBY to win his second Open. Appleby is a genuinely world class links player, losing a play-off in the 2002 British Open being the career highlight, as well as numerous wins on the PGA Tour. Aussie Open champ in 2001, last year he was second to Lonard and the previous year at Moonah, Stuart started the final day as favourite before a disappointing finish. Another factor in his favour is that, along with favourite Adam Scott, his recent PGA Tour form stands out quite some way ahead of the rest of this field, most of whom play in the US. Its very hard to envisage circumstances where Appleby isn't in contention at the weekend, and I make him a confident each-way bet at 11/1.

Scott remains one of the outstanding young talents in golf, but he looks well worth opposing this week. His record in Australia is ordinary in comparison to the rest of his form, even more so on tough links courses as his poor British Open record shows. Nick O'Hern possesses a very obvious chance on his third place behind Howell and Woods in China, as well as a string of top notch efforts in Europe all season. On the downside though, he has proved time and again that he lacks the bottle to close out tournaments. Nick's short putting remains an issue of particular concern and he's bound to be left plenty of tricky short par-putts on this course, where he disappointed two years ago. Other obvious contenders with questions to answer are Robert Allenby, whose recent form has been poor, and Mark Hensby who partnered Lonard in Portugal last week and is unproven in his own country.

Another player who has flattered to deceive in his native Australia is GEOFF OGILVY, but recent form in the States suggests Geoff could be set for his most prosperous winter yet. After finally winning his maiden event earlier in the season, Ogilvy was playing some really consistent tee to green golf all summer, as 5th and 6th place in the final two Majors show. Consecutive top-ten finishes in this event in 2001 and 2002 confirm that St Andrews was no fluke and Geoff can handle conditions, so he looks worth a saver at least.

Normally I'd steer clear of RODNEY PAMPLING, as I have him down as a bottler, but the 33/1 price tag on offer this week means I simply can't pass up the opportunity. Winner of the International in 2004, Pampling has become a consistent performer on the PGA Tour, and has a fine Australian record with his three places from his last 5 starts at home. Blowing a five shot halfway lead in this last year no doubt remains an embarrassment but this doesn't alter the obvious value in his place odds.

For the fourth and final selection, take a chance on former champion GREG CHALMERS. The left-hander recently turned around a long bad run with a fine finish to the 2005 Nationwide Tour season, regaining his main Tour card in the process. Chalmers has sounded bullish about his prospects this winter in interviews recently, stressing that this is the first time in a while that he has felt fresh and fit from a well-earned break.

Last winter, backing the top Europeans and handful of leading Asians on the "Far-East Swing" proved a profitable strategy once again and I see very little reason to abandon it for the China Open. Of the leading Europeans two stand out, Englishmen PAUL CASEY and NICK DOUGHERTY. The only other Europeans that are anywhere near the same class - Stephen Dodd, Anders Hansen, Thomas Levet - are all at a disadvantage to their English rivals having travelled to and from Portugal in between Chinese events.

In any case, their form stands out. Casey won in China earlier in the year and has been in very solid recent form, with three top-10s from his last five starts, all in considerably stronger company. Dougherty looks even more obvious on the basis of third place behind Howell and Woods a fortnight ago. Despite taking longer to show his famous potential than young peers Donald and Casey, Nick's stock has risen considerably since winning his first event in Singapore in February. I've described Dougherty as a winner waiting to happen several times since and this looks the best opportunity to date.

With form and freshness questions surrounding so many of the other Europeans, it should pay to side with the two best performers on the Asian Tour, THONGCHAI JAIDEE and THAWORN WIRATCHANT. Time and again this pair have shown they can compete with the very best Europe can muster when conditions are in their favour and look in a different class to the rest of the 'home' contingent. Both look excellent each-way bets at 20/1.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

AUSTRALIAN OPEN

4pts ew STUART APPLEBY @ 12/1 (LADBROKES)
2pts ew GEOFF OGILVY @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew ROD PAMPLING @ 33/1 (LADBROKES)
1pt ew GREG CHALMERS @ 80/1 (LADBROKES)

VOLVO CHINA OPEN

4pts win PAUL CASEY @ 9/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew THONGCHAI JAIDEE @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew THAWORN WIRATCHANT @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2005 STATISTICS: +65.25pts

Murdoch channel in Michael Moore hatchet job shocker

Now I know its hardly newsworthy to find a Rupert Murdoch-owned channel producing low grade propoganda, but this week's hatchet job, Michael Moore and Me, really did plunge to new depths. Presented by the sometimes reality TV contestant, social commentator and 'yoof' tv pioneer Janet Street Porter, this tripe would surely have failed to pass GCSE Media Studies, such was its lack of content and balance.

Trailed for weeks on Sky as Janet's attempt to 'do a Michael Moore on Michael Moore', most of the programme consisted of Porter's failed attempts to track down the writer and film-maker. As she screamed 'Michael' in that intensely irritating voice from his front drive, she mused that he was probably avoiding her. Perhaps Moore was terrified of facing questioning from such a heavyweight political journalist, perhaps he peered out of the window and thought he was being stalked by a lunatic as I'd imagine there's every chance he's never seen or heard of her. Or perhaps he wasn't in. Nevertheless, Janet took her failure to find Moore as evidence that he was avoiding her and set about compiling a devastating dossier of evidence against him.

We learnt from a stage manager at the Camden Roundhouse that Moore was a bit of a prima donna, and from a disgruntled former employee that he didn't like being confronted. We even learnt the shocking revelation that Moore selectively edits his movies! I wonder how all those fair and balanced journalists at Sky reacted to the shocking news that such cynical tactics could be used. Whatever next on Sky? George Galloway on why Christopher Hitchens is a drink-soaked former Trotskyist popinjay? Maybe they'll scrutinise another journalist, one of their own number like the semi-literate right-wing propogandist Richard Littlejohn. Then again, these characters are Brits and Sky have obviously recognised that British viewers are more interested in exposes of American journalists so perhaps Bill O'Reilly is next on their hitlist.

But my favourite bit was the 5-second clip of an anonymous Flint lawyer who stated "Michael Moore is pure political poison", with no context or explanation for that view. The trailers had showed that bit as a highlight, which should have acted as a warning to the lack of strength behind JSP's argument. She seemed aware of this, and regularly drifted into personal attacks on Moore's physical appearance - the pot calling the kettle black if ever there was an instance. Just when I was struggling to stay awake, Janet produced another devastating charge, one that we've never heard before, that it was Moore's fault that Bush won the 2004 election! Well, obviously a best-selling film documenting the rampant corruption of the Bush administration, exposing the President's lack of a brain and demolishing the case for his unpopular war could only have helped Bush. Clearly his victory had nothing to do with John Kerry's complete lack of charisma and clarity, the similar hatchet jobs by Fox, Sinclair and all the Swiftboat veteran orientated blogs, the mobilisation of the Christian Right or indeed any of the many well documented explanations. At least Moore is one person who the Right would have failed to caricature as a 'flip-flopper". With Janet's air-fare apparently going to waste, she tried one last desparate tactic to try and locate the elusive Moore. She turned up at a celebrity gala, "Because its the sort of place you'd expect to find him", and screeched at a bemused looking George Clooney "Have you seen Michael Moore?" Pathetic.

If anything, this 'documentary' just served to prove how the Right-wing media will do anything to discredit a popular critic of Bush. Fans of Moore, far from being converted by this tripe, will surely now be even more convinced that he genuinely scares the neo-cons. And the millions of sceptics, who probably found some of Moore's claims of corruption a little outlandish, might now reflect that if this was the most damage a blatant hatchet job could do then perhaps there is some substance to Moore's accusations. More than anything, I was left wondering how much money Tony O'Reilly's Independent newspapers are paying a talentless buffoon like Janet Street-Porter and wondering if blogging is really the most lucrative way to go.

Tiger Unopposable in Phoenix

This week sees the final, and clearly the least prestigious, of the World Golf Championship events with the World Cup staged at Portugal's Victoria Club de Golfe. The World Cup is played in a pairs format and historically has been dominated by the US, though nowadays the Americans treat the tournament with contempt. Despite possessing five of the world's top 10 ranked players, apparently the best pair they can come up with are 25th ranked Stewart Cink and 49th best Zach Johnson. Both are decent players, but make little appeal in the Mediterranean where I've never seen either perform.

There is a real gulf in class amongst the 24 nations competing, with at least 6 way out of their depth and a further 8 representing little value despite odds of at least 40/1 so perhaps the best betting strategy is to use a process of elimination. Of the other 10, the US make no appeal, while the Australians have no previous record in the event to make their chance obvious despite a competitive looking pairing of Peter Lonard and Mark Hensby. 28/1 shots France could have been given a squeak on paper were it not for Thomas Levet's complete lack of recent form so if we rule out these 3, only 7 teams remain worthy of consideration.

The market is dominated by ENGLAND, SPAIN and Ireland. The English pairing of Luke Donald and last week's winner David Howell look certain to be on the premises, such is the consistency of both players' long game. Last year Donald, with partner Paul Casey, edged out the Spanish pairing of Sergio Garcia and Miguel Angel-Jiminez by a shot with Irish pair Padraig Harrington and Paul McGinley, (who won this event in the 1990s), a close third. Of the three, I marginally favour England for a successful defence of their title, as Howell and Donald look the most in-form pairing, but at 4/1 the bookies are hardly giving money away. I also recommend combining England and Spain with 'good thing' Tiger Woods in Japan - the odds equate to between 11/2 and 13/2.

For an each-way alternative, WALES look fair value at 25/1. Bradley Dredge has been extremely consistent in the latter half of 2005 while partner Stephen Dodd won twice earlier in the year and has three top-10 finishes from his last six events in Portugal. Both finished with sub-70 rounds at the weekend so come here in decent nick. Dredge in particular would look a winner waiting to happen if he were not so nervy on the final day. However such problems are often overcome in team golf, where the burden is shared and a player feels less lonely when the heat is on.

The other three teams with chances this week are South Africa, who would have been a selection were it not for injury doubts surrounding Trevor Immelman, big-hitting Argentine duo Angel Cabrera and Ricardo Gonzalez and Sweden. Swedish pair Henrik Stenson and Niclas Fasth look a danger but, in keeping with general trends about Stenson, look seriously underpriced.

The main singles event of the week is the Dunlop Phoenix Open in Japan. With only 8 players from the world's top 100, its very hard to see past a successful defence for TIGER WOODS. Last year Woods arrived in Japan on the back of a disastrous campaign by his own exceptional standards, having failed to win a single strokeplay event, only to answer his critics in the best possible way by with a facile 8 shot victory. Though still looking a bit wayward from the tee, his form has been incomparable in 2005 with 6 victories including two Majors and two World Golf Championships. Over the past fortnight, Woods has been unlucky to run into two inspired front-running performances from Bart Bryant and David Howell, and is unlikely to face such a challenge this week.

At least several of Tiger's pricincipal rivals have shown in the past that they won't flinch in a head to head with the great man over the weekend. Jim Furyk emerged trimuphant from his dual with Woods at the Western Open in July, while Michael Campbell's self belief has been transformed since his memorable triumph at the US Open. Pick of the opposition though is THOMAS BJORN, who beat Tiger in Dubai back in the days when just about everybody recoiled from a showdown such was Woods' aura of invincibility, despite playing all four rounds together. Denmark's finest has an awesome record in this event, winning twice in the last four years and never finishing worse than 12th. Last year he took the eye again, staying on strongly into 7th despite a disastrous first round. After a promising 5th in China at the weekend, this regular Asian winner looks set for a profitable winter.

An even more obvious favourite this week is Retief Goosen on a rare Sunshine Tour appearance in his native South Africa. Goose is a best priced 11/10 to deliver but this is a short price too far for a value seeker such as myself, especially considering his lacklustre final round performance at the Tour Championship and the driving problems he encountered both there and the previous week. Rivals are not exactly obvious with Charl Schwartzel disappointing in Europe of late while similar comments apply to Darren Fichardt. So for an interest, I recommend a couple of small each-way bets on RICHARD STERNE and TITCH MOORE.

Sterne is very highly rated and has a big future ahead of him. In the first half of 2005, he put together a very impressive consistent run of high finishes amongst far more competitive company on the European Tour. Though his form tailed off a bit, a closing 67 in China at the weekend suggests he might be coming into form again just in time for the forthcoming big tournaments on his home tour. Big-hitting Moore is very consistent at this level, with fifteen top-10 finishes on the Sunshine Tour over the past three winters, including 3 victories. Moore finished top-10 in the prestige Dunhill Links Championship recently and looks bound to be close up again this week in such weak company.

Good Luck!

WORLD CUP OF GOLF

3pts win ENGLAND @ 4/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew WALES @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

DUNLOP PHOENIX OPEN

8pts win TIGER WOODS @ 13/8 (SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 18/1 (BETFRED, UK BETTING, SPORTING ODDS)

2 X 2pts WIN DOUBLES ENGLAND/SPAIN @ TIGER WOODS (BEST PRICES WITH VICTOR CHANDLER)

LIMPOPO CLASSIC

1pt ew RICHARD STERNE @ 20/1 (STAN JAMES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew TITCH MOORE @ 28/1 (STAN JAMES, PADDY POWER)

2005 STATISTICS: +24.25pts

World stars to dominate in Japan

With both main Tours either side of the Atlantic now finished for the year, many golf fans and punters consider this time of the year to be the silly season. I, however, look forward to it with relish as I believe picking winners is far easier at this time of year. As the world's top players spread out across the globe, some to the Japanese Tour, some to the European Tour's "Far-East Swing", some down under for the ANZ Tour and some to South Africa, fields are often notable by their lack of strength in depth.

This week's Taiheyo Masters in Japan is a prime example. Top Europeans are always very much worth noting on their rare Japanese excursions. Lee Westwood won this event three years running in the 1990s and last year DARREN CLARKE won in a canter. This time round, Clarke and JUSTIN LEONARD are the only representatives from the World's top 50 players yet both are very fair prices at 8/1 and 14/1 respectively. A huge question mark has surrounded Clarke all year as his season has been seriously distracted by his wife's battle with cancer, and only a fortnight ago he pulled out at halfway during the Volvo Masters. In his previous event in Mallorca, Darren's game had looked in great nick when only a poor week on the greens prevented him from getting in a blow on runaway winner Raphael Jacquelin. As he said after pulling out, "Valderrama is not the place to be when you're mind is elsewhere" so I think we've got to forgive him that effort. This course, Gotemba, is much more straightforward and I expect a more relaxed Clarke to turn up. In fact, he is one of the few players who is probably at his best in such laid-back end of season tournaments - I've always held the view that he gets a bit too wound up when in contention in the more prestigious events.

Leonard is even more obvious at bigger odds. I presume his price is an over-reaction to a very moderate effort at the weekend's Tour Championship. Again, I wouldn't read too much into that. He is the only competitor from that event in Japan this week, and the next players in the betting - David Smail, Dean Wilson and the home players - would all be at least five times the price of Leonard if this were being held in the US. Unlike many of his fellow Americans, Justin has shown over the years that he can produce outside his home country, winning and playing well in several Opens and also Sun City. And lets not forget, 2005 has been the Texan's best year in a long time since beefing up, with two wins on the PGA Tour and four other top-15 finishes. Smail is the only other player from the world's top 100 here (he is number 80 as opposed to Clarke 20th and Leonard 29th), and has lots of winning form in Japan but has never really shone on this course so looks well worth taking on.

Far more attention will be focussed on the HSBC Champions Trophy in China, a new big money event which has managed to attract Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh and most of the top Europeans. What to make of Tiger's chances this week? Well, last weekend was infuriating. For three days, he hit the ball over the place and, as only Tiger can, still managed to somehow craft a competitive score. Then on Sunday, I thought he played well enough to normally have won on a tough course like East Lake, only to run into a player on an amazing streak in Bart Bryant. On that evidence, there's nothing wrong with the offer of 5/2 on the Tiger, but I'm going to look elsewhere for a pre-tournament bet as Woods' form in the lesser events hasn't matched his showing on the big stages this year.

At this stage of the year, it should prove fruitful to look for players who seem fresh and determined to still get something out of the season, as opposed to those winding down. PADRAIG HARRINGTON stands out as a man coming into form at the right time. Pod's season was going well, having landed his first two wins in the US, until his father died just before the Open and the distraction seemed to curtail any serious efforts this summer. Suddenly, a fortnight ago on a course he hates, Valderrama, Ireland's finest sprung back to form with three fine closing rounds. He kept up the good work with 7th place at East Lake and looks highly likely to contend over the next few weeks. It is always important in Asia to side with players who have proved they can cope with the humidity and the different pace of greens. On this count, Harrington again scores well with past wins in Hong Kong and Taiwan along with numerous other good efforts in this part of the world.

Another player who has prospered before in Asia is LEE WESTWOOD, who as I mentioned earlier has previously been prolific in Japan at this time of the year. All in all this prolific winner has six victories on this continent to his name, and is still desperately searching for his first win of 2005. Like Harrington, Westwood just missed out on the money at Valderrama, finishing 7th but comes here in good form and good heart. Asians Vijay Singh and KJ Choi also merit the utmost respect in these conditions, while Miguel Angel Jiminez and Thomas Bjorn also have shown they relish Asian conditions. However, for my final selection, I've simply got to stand by DAVID HOWELL for the time being despite a poor effort at Valderrama. As I've argued several times in recent weeks, Howell is the most improved player in the world and looks certain to really make his mark at a higher level soon. In a limited field, with fatigue an issue for many, the Swindon man looks a solid each-way bet.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

TAIHEYO MASTERS

8pts win DARREN CLARKE @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
4pts ew JUSTIN LEONARD @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

HSBC CHAMPIONS TROPHY

3pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 40/1 (SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew DAVID HOWELL @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

Furyk could prosper at Tour Championship

Apart from offering slightly grudging congratulations to Colin Montgomerie on his outstanding achievement of winning the Order of Merit for an incredible eighth time, there's no more golfing business to deal with in mainland Europe for a few months now. As we await the imminent start of the ANZ Tour and the European Tour's 'Far-East Swing', this week sees the big money finale to the PGA Tour in the US, the Tour Championship, along with the low key Southern Farm Classic.

The Tour Championship is open to the top 30 on the US money list and is this year being staged at East Lake for the third time in the last five years. With Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson absent, and huge question marks surrounding Vijay Singh, Retief Goosen and Sergio Garcia, this looks an outstanding opportunity for TIGER WOODS to land yet another prestige event. The case against Tiger rests on his persistent inaccuracy off the tee, an extremely rare missed cut last time out and the fact that he has rarely been seen at his best on par-70s. On the other hand, in the prestigious tournaments that matter to the great man, Woods has simply been awesome once again this year. As for the par-70 argument, this particular one is also longer than most so plays into Woods' hands on that count and he has finished runner-up here twice before. Winner of the Masters, British Open, NEC and Amex Championship, and placed in the other two Majors, Tiger remains very much the one to beat and impossible to leave out of the staking plan.
If he'd come into this in any form, defending champ Goosen would have been my selection but after an eagle on the first hole last week, his play was extremely shoddy - a comment that applies even more so to Singh who has now missed two consecutive cuts. Garcia remains in great form, and capable of bursts of unbelievable golf as we saw on his back nine on Saturday at Valderrama, but he must be devastated to have blown another winning chance in that tournament. The fact that he played poorly on his previous visits to East Lake also suggests the mercurial Spaniard is one to avoid this week.

So with Woods' immediate rivals unlikely to prosper, this week could offer a good opportunity for the next batch of players in the world rankings. In particular, JIM FURYK will surely be right at home on this tough par-70 track where he finished a close third in 1998. Jim comes into this week fresh having had a couple of weeks to recover from his shock last-gasp defeat to Wes Short at the Michelin Championship. Interestingly, the last time Furyk blew a tournament like that was at the Barclays Classic in June but he bounced right back from that disappointment to win the following week.

DAVID TOMS also looks highly likely to be there or thereabouts at a tasty 28/1 and looks a fair each-way bet, even though there are only four places on offer in this limited field. DT has finished in the top-11 on all three previous East Lake contests and looked in consistent form prior to last week's missed cut. Others I could make a case for here are TIM CLARK and BEN CRANE but prefer them in speciality markets.

With the top-30 at East Lake, the Southern Farm Classic looks a very low grade affair and one to keep stakes to a minimum. For an interest, I recommend a couple of small each-way bets on JOHN HUSTON, who won here in 2003, and the promising VAUGHAN TAYLOR. Huston has bounced back to somewhere near his best this year after a spell in the doldrums. His long game has looked in excellent shape and has resulted in four top-20 finishes in his last seven starts. In such a poor field, Huston's chance looks obvious.

Taylor remains very much on my players to follow list. He hasn't missed a cut since July and looks well capable of adding a second victory to his maiden success at the Reno-Tahoe Open. Regular readers will no doubt understand how infuriating watching Carl Pettersson win at the weekend was for me having tipped him at least three times recently at huge prices. That's all part of the mindgames that go with the territory of gambling, especially in golf tournaments where a player can perform well week in, week out and just miss out on the places. Taylor very much comes into this category, as does Bo Van Pelt who just missed out again at the weekend. Nevertheless, I'd be kicking myself if I didn't back at least one of the pair in this weak company.

Good Luck!

TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP

4pts win TIGER WOODS @ 11/4 (SKYBET, UK BETTING, VCBET)
3pts win JIM FURYK @ 14/1 (LADBROKES, UK BETTING)
2pts ew DAVID TOMS @ 25/1 (BET DIRECT, TOTE, VCBET, HILLS)

MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS

SUPPORT TIM CLARK
SUPPORT BEN CRANE

SOUTHERN FARM CLASSIC

1pt ew JOHN HUSTON @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew VAUGHAN TAYLOR @ 40/1 (STAN JAMES, TOTE)