Something quite significant has happened in snooker this season. For several years, since the decline of Stephen Hendry and subsequently the 'big 4' of Hendry, O'Sullivan, Williams and Higgins, snooker had become one of the most open and unpredictable sports around. Virtually none of the top players were reliable and consistent, and the name of the game as far as gambling was concerned was to constantly seek out attractively priced each-way value.
Up until November of last year , 13 players had shared the last 16 titles between them. The first two winners of this season, Dominic Dale and Marco Fu both started the event at 150/1 or bigger. The SPs of the last three World Champions has been 150/1, 66/1 and 14/1.
But since the NI classic in November, everything has changed. At last we may have seen the emergence of a new elite, akin to that previous 'big 4'. Stephen Maguire, Shaun Murphy, Ronnie O'Sullivan and Mark Selby have shared the last six events, and only two other players have reached a final during that period. Consequently, only two other players start this week at less than 20/1, defending champion Higgins and Ding Junhui. neither of whom have been at their best recently.
No disrespect to the likes of Dott and Ebdon, but their successes came on the back of long, grinding victories without too many high breaks. In my view this year's winner will in my view be somebody who can regularly win frames in one visit. So rather than the old strategy of trading down big prices, for now it would be folly to look to try and get the big names beaten early on. Of the new big 4, only Maguire's first-round opponent looks even vaguely threatening.
As usual, its essential to be wary about perenially dodgy favourite Ronnie O'Sullivan. After his outburst in China, he could come under some very serious scrutiny from the media and snooker authorities which given his extremely fragile temperament could lead to a withdrawal or non-trying. Alternatively, if he gets an easy ride from the authorities and starts happy, O'Sullivan has a peach of a draw. The only potential stumbling blocks through to the semi-final would be Ken Doherty or a rejuvenated Mark Williams, though either would be trounced by a peak-form Ronnie.
I'm not about to break the habit of a lifetime and advise a bet on him to win the event. I expect him to progress but would have grave concerns about his ability to maintain interest and form over a marathon latter stages encounter against a top-class opponent. However his tasty draw does suggest he'll reach those latter stages, which makes him worthy of inclusion in the 'Nominate the Finalists' market, to which I'll return later.
The top quarter looks wide open, with at least six of the eight players in with a decent chance of reaching the semis. Higgins opens his defence on Saturday with a potentially tough game against one of the best never to have won a World title, Matthew Stevens. I say potentially, because Stevens form and motivation is something of a mystery. Besides winning his qualifying match for Sheffield easily, the Welshman has done precisely nothing this year, leading some to assume he's lost interest. However, I wouldn't write him off just yet as every year he seems to improve tenfold for the longer matches here.
Higgins too has struggled for focus and form this year, and many champions have lost that opening day fixture down the years. However, if he is at his best this week, Higgins would be the man to follow in the top half of the draw. If not, its wide-open. In his quarter, fairly similar chances could be given to Ding, Marco Fu, RYAN DAY or Mark Allen. Though he may be the same odds as most of those, there is no way Stephen Hendry will be winning an eighth world title.
Ding remains massively over-rated. Having reached just one low grade final since breaking down in tears at Wembley during a confidence-shattering mauling at the hands of O'Sullivan, I wonder how long it will be before punters give up on the Chinese star. In fact, one of the bets of the first round must be his first round opponent Marco Fu at 6/4. Grand Prix champion Fu has produced some of his best snooker at the Crucible, most memorably when losing a deciding frame to Ebdon in the 2006 semi.
So despite letting me down on more occasions than I care to remember, once again I'm having a small each-way wager on Welshman Day. Arguably the best player yet to win a ranking event, Day is the only one in this section who can be confidently predicted to win his opening match, and on 2008 form shouldn't particularly fear anyone else he's scheduled to meet before the semis. He's reached a couple of finals over the past 18 months, and has played well at the Crucible before when less experienced, coming close to causing major upsets against O'Sullivan and Higgins.
The other three members of the 'big 4' are in the bottom half, amongst whom the best value of all lies, not for the first time, with 2005 champion SHAUN MURPHY. As a local lad, Murphy always looks comfortable at the Crucible - as opposed for instance to O'Sullivan who probably hates the idea of being away from home for 17 days. His record in the event suggests Murphy particularly thrives over these long matches. And he remains by far the most under-rated player in the world. Having reached 8 of his last 11 ranking semis, I can see no justification for his being only fourth in the betting. Indeed, according the provisional rankings, Murphy is the best in the world.
For my money, the winner is the player that emerges from a potential quarter-final between Murphy and Mark Selby. Selby is very much the man of the moment, having finally won a couple of titles since losing in last year's final. A slow grinder in the mould of former champs Cliff Thorburn or Peter Ebdon, 'The Jester from Leicester' will be perfectly happy if his matches go on way past midnight....again.
But from a betting perspective, Selby is poor value in comparison. Whereas Murphy should have very little trouble reaching the quarters, Selby will have to negotiate a tricky last-16 match against the winner of the Ebdon/Jamie Cope first-round match. No certainty by any means, and seeing as I would price Selby v Murphy as a more or less even game, there's no contest for which represents better value between 8/1 Murphy and 6/1 Selby.
The odds suggest the bottom quarter will be dominated by the man I've been banging on about for years to little avail, Stephen Maguire. Twice a winner this year, including the latest China Open, Maguire must have a great chance of improving on last year's semi-final defeat. Nothing has shifted in my long-held view that, at his very best, 'On Fire Maguire' is the man to beat simply because he is such a heavy scorer, knocking in flawless centuries for fun like his old practice partner Hendry used to.
But is he worth a bet at just 7/1? As someone who has paid the price for having too much faith in him before, I'm loathe to bet at these odds. Twice at the Crucible, against Ronnie and Higgins, he has crumbled having held seemingly unassailable leads. And he is no certainty from this draw. I doubt his capable first-round opponent Antony Hamilton will spring an upset, but I wouldn't write off NEIL ROBERTSON in round two. This time last year, Robbo was a shorter price to win the World title than Maguire, and equally hyped as a future champion. And in both of the last two years he's reserved some of his best snooker for the Crucible, arguably being unlucky to lose classic matches to Dott (13-12) and O'Sullivan (13-11). He's had a disappointing season, but has looked in fine touch in recent Champions League matches and must potentially be a threat to all.
So alongside outright bets on Murphy, Robertson and Day, I also suggest four bets including O'Sullivan in the 'Nominate the Finalists' market. Here I've chosen two from each of the bottom quarters to meet Ronnie in the final, with the combined odds equating to around 2/1.
I've also written five preview articles for the Betfair blog, links to which can be found at the bottom.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
10pts SHAUN MURPHY @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 20/1 (GENERAL, 25/1 SUPERSOCCER)
2pts ew RYAN DAY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
NOMINATE THE FINALISTS (ALL WITH PADDY POWER)
8pts O'SULLIVAN/SELBY @ 8/1
7pts O'SULLIVAN/MAGUIRE @ 10/1
6pts O'SULLIVAN/MURPHY @ 12/1
3pts O'SULLIVAN/ROBERTSON @ 25/1
http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/world-snooker-championship-betting/match-previews/crucible-odds-the-pick-of-the-first-round-betting-160408.html
http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/world-snooker-championship-betting/world-snooker-championship-betting-market-focus-new-cha-150408.html
http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/world-snooker-championship-betting/world-snooker-championship-betting-market-focus-player-150408.html
http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/world-snooker-championship-betting/world-snooker-championship-betting-market-focus-147-sco-150408.html
http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/world-snooker-championship-betting/crucible-betting-2008-forget-likeability-its-reliabilit-150408.html
