Resurgent Olly big value at Memorial

Its back to the usual sub-standard fare in Europe this week. Despite good prize money and a great course at Celtic Manor, hardly any of the big names on show at Wentworth over the weekend have stayed on for the Wales Open. The market leader is Miguel-Angel Jiminez, who hit one of the rounds of 2005 with a last day 62 to win the title here. Despite his best ever Wentworth finish confirming Jiminez is in good form, he makes no appeal at a best price of 10/1. Neither does the other challenger for favouritism, Michael Campbell, make much appeal after a disappointing weekend where he confessed afterwards to not really hitting the heights of last season just yet.

This looks primed for another big-priced winner, (though probably not as unlikely as Jeff Maggert last week!). The only obvious contender for me is the homegrown BRADLEY DREDGE. We saw recently with Francesco Molinari how a national Open can often bring the best out in a player, and Dredge certainly represents the best of the Welsh. 2005 was undoubtably Bradley's best year to date with a series of good finishes, even if his last day putting was a regular concern. Recent weeks have suggested he is coming to form just in time for the summer events and a charge for a Ryder Cup spot. In four weeks since an early-season break, Dredge has made all four cuts and has two top-10 finishes.

Having backed him several times recently, it would be madness to leave out last year's runner-up JOSE-MANUEL LARA. Regular readers will know the reasons inside out by now. He has an outstanding long game, and is generally best on the tougher courses where putting isn't such an issue. Having shown his liking for Celtic Manor, this must represent a good chance to open his European Tour account.

Finally, for an outsider, take a chance on JOSE-FELIPE LIMA. The young French player looks an excellent prospect to me, with a series of good efforts to his name over the past three years. Three consecutive top-20 finishes in April suggested the form was becoming more consistent, though his last couple of efforts in better company have been a tad disappointing. Nevertheless, he has won already on Tour so there shouldn't be any worries on that score, and came a promising 8th place on this course last year.

Without a doubt, the attention of most golf fans will migrate back to the US this week for the Memorial Tournament. A genuine world-class field is on show, with only Tiger Woods missing from the world's top 5. This event is normally won by one of the top players, but there are many problems with pursuing that strategy. Phil Mickelson deserves to start favourite, but I wonder whether he will be fully tuned up on his first start for 3 weeks. This is the beginning of the run-up to the US Open, where Mickelson will bid for the second leg of the Grand Slam. If recent years have been anything to go by with regard to Lefty's preparation, expect him to start peaking next week. Ernie Els has a fine record here, but shows little sign of regaining his pre-injury form just yet. Similarly on past Memorial form, we should be remortgaging our houses to take the 16/1 about Vijay Singh, but his last three efforts have been, frankly, poor. Adam Scott has never shown his best form here.

So of the leading players, we're left by default with JIM FURYK and RETIEF GOOSEN. Of Furyk's last 12 starts, 5 have resulted in top-10 finishes with three further top-20s. At Memorial his record is even better, with a win and three other top-10s from his last eight visits and never missing the cut. 14/1 about an infrequent winner like Furyk is hardly giving money away, but his chance is extremely obvious round here. As for Goosen, 2006 has been solid if unspectacular so far which enables us to take generous odds of 16/1. I'm not concerned in the least with a disappointing effort at Wentworth, where he has never prospered and instead prefer to look at his US Tour form. Four of his last five US starts have resulted in top-10s, with three places. Encouragingly, Goose has made the top-8 on both visits to Muirfield Village too.

The one player on either side of the Atlantic whose price really screams value though is JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL. Sunday's fast-finishing 14th place at Wentworth was a more than acceptable return on his first start for six weeks. He should be well primed for a run at Muirfield Village, a course that will surely suit this world-class iron player. Lets just remind ourselves of Olly's 2006 form. 7th at Sawgrass, 2nd at Sugarloaf and 3rd at Augusta in consecutive weeks in March/April. This following on from 2nd place at Warwick Hills and two other top-20 finishes. Clearly OIly is back to his world-class best, and he should be nowhere near 50/1 for any event when in this form.

Good Luck!

WALES OPEN

2pts ew BRADLEY DREDGE @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JOSE-FELIPE LIMA @ 100/1 (LADBROKES)

MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT

2pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew JIM FURYK @ 14/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew RETIEF GOOSEN @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-66pts)2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Aussie Scott can star at wet Wentworth

This week's BMW PGA Championship represents the highlight so far of the 2006 European Tour. For once, the field over here is immeasurably superior to the one on show in the States. They've been playing the PGA Championship at the West Course for as long as I've been watching golf, so hopefully good use can be made of the bank of past Wentworth form in finding some value this week. In the past, usually when we've seen dry, fast-running conditions, outsiders have flourished in this prestige event. Recent shock winners include 500/1 Scott Drummond and 200/1 Andrew Oldcorn. I suspect there's much less of that happening at Wentworth now that Ernie Els has overseen various changes to the West Course, including lengthening of over 300 yards. The key to success here over the years has always been accuracy, but the changes, coupled with drenched fairways this week, suggests that length off the tee is of equal importance. As with all great golf courses, waywardness will be severely penalised and the number of potential winners may be limited to the cream of the crop and a handful of players who hit it long and straight.

One might think Els, a 6-time winner of the World Matchplay on this course, would have an advantage having designed the changes. It does seem amazing that he's never won this event, and its been a long time since he started in double figures but frankly he just hasn't impressed recently. Retief Goosen makes even less appeal as he's never even threatened to win here. The player whom I think will most appreciate conditions this week is ADAM SCOTT. Scotty comes here in much better form than those two, with consecutive top-3 finishes in the US. The Aussie seems to absolutely revel in wet conditions, which suit his superb long game and I also feel negates his achilles heel - chipping and putting around dry, fast greens.

As with Els, it seems ridiculous that MICHAEL CAMPBELL has never won a PGA despite challenging on numerous occasions. It was disappointing to see him fail to get into contention in Ireland at the weekend, but close inspection of his card suggests a repetition of the solid form Cambo showed the previous week. From +3 in the first six holes, finishing in 12th place just five shots behind the winner was a decent effort. 3 weeks into his main summer schedule, Campbell should be approaching peak form just about now.

LUKE DONALD gets onto my shortlist in almost every event he plays in, so I can't ignore 20/1 against a European Tour field. 18th place in 2005 was a moderate course debut for a player of his ability, but I'm still convinced he has the perfect game for Wentworth. There is arguably nobody better on narrow, penal courses like this than the consistent Donald, who rarely misses fairways. My only slight nagging doubt is his comparative lack of length off the tee, but if you look back throughout his career, Luke has often prospered on long courses as a result of his superb long irons.

Finally, I was very surprised to see the resurgent JARMO SANDELIN quoted in three-figures. In recent weeks Jarmo has had no peers as far as this week's central requirement is concerned, long, straight driving. Missing the cut at unsuitable, linksy Carton House came as no surprise to me, especially after two consecutive weeks in contention previously. A six-time winner in Europe, Sandelin is a man to take seriously when in form. Two top-10s here in 1996 and 1999 show he can play the course well when in form. Subsequent poor efforts are readily overlooked because his game has been all over the place in that period.

There's also loads of course form to analyse for the US event, the Fedex St Jude Classic at Southwind, though not all of it is entirely relevant as there have been significant course changes in recent years. DAVID TOMS' record here is nothing short of magnificent, finishing 4th and 2nd either side of wins in 2003 and 2004. The problem with backing him confidently at single figure odds is a best finish of 15th from his last six starts. Prior to that of course, Toms had been in superb nick so recent disappointments are probably just a blip and with so few other obvious winners I have to include DT in the staking plan. Fellow major winner and defending champion Justin Leonard similarly has a superb course record, but hasn't finished in the top-25 since February. Bob Estes is another with an outstanding record at Southwind but is a measly 28/1 for such a Tour also-ran.

The one player with good course and recent form is a player I'm adamant will get off the mark in the US soon, FREDDY JACOBSEN. Top-6 on all three Southwind visits, Jacobsen has done better here than anywhere else on the PGA Tour, and last weekend's just off the pace effort had the hallmark of an imminent winner. Again the price hardly screams value, but he must be backed nonetheless as the opposition isn't terrifying.

Good Luck!

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP

3pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 20/1 (BET DIRECT, LADBROKES, SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JARMO SANDELIN @ 125/1 (BET DIRECT, BLUESQ)

FEDEX ST-JUDE CLASSIC

3pts win DAVID TOMS @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew FREDDY JACOBSEN @ 22/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 25/1 WITH BLUESQ)

2006 STATS: (-43pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

New`Sports Betting Advisory Service

As you can see, I provide a weekly analysis of the best golf bets on this site free of charge, along with the occasional snooker or politics preview. These make up a very small percentage of my turnover every week and are basically just an introduction to the events in question.I am now also providing a subscription service for a more comprehensive daily analysis of the day's best value.There will be a mixture of outright bets, and in-running trades.Two subscription options are available. For £10 per week, you'll get the comprehensive golf analysis which will consist of at least three e-mails each week. At the start of the week, I'll pinpoint the early trading value and then after Rounds 2 and 3, I'll advise you of all the best trades ahead of that day's play.The other option is, at £20 per week, a comprehensive analysis of all the sporting events that my attention will be focussed on. Apart from golf, the main sports I cover are cricket, snooker, international football, top-class National Hunt racing and the occasional tennis tournament. As well as these, I'll share any politics betting advice if and when a suitable market arises. There will be a Paypal option on the site very soon, but for now you'll have to contact me to arrange payment. You can either e-mail me at paulmotty@hotmail.com or leave a message and e-mail address below.Good Luck!

Casey and Cabrera to launch money list bids

At last, we've reached that great time of the year when, for the next 5 months, we are pretty much guaranteed two world-class events on either side of the Atlantic every week. The European Tour begins a spell of lucrative tournaments with the British Masters at The Belfry and therefore the race for the Order of Merit now starts in earnest. All is still to play for as leader David Howell has only 1M Euros to his name, almost certainly no more than 40% of the total required to win. It looks even more wide open than ever this year with usual jolly Ernie Els struggling for form. To win the OOM, you need some big showings in the Majors and WGC events, especially if like Els, dual-champ Goosen, Garcia, Donald and Olazabal you only play in a limited number of European events. The betting at present is ridiculously biased in favour of the four market leaders and offers no end of each-way value.

The four contenders according to the betting are Howell, Henrik Stenson, Els and Goosen. I've already mentioned Els' lack of form. Goosen proved again last year that he is disinterested in a third OOM, and will miss key events at the end of the year. In any case, he's not playing at The Belfry so his price won't shorten in the short-term. I do rate Stenson very highly, and Howell certainly has a great chance if he can reproduce the European form of the last two summers. But those two are hardly in another league to the likes of PAUL CASEY, ANGEL CABRERA, MICHAEL CAMPBELL and others who are at least eight times the price just because they trail be a few hundred thousand at this early stage. Ladbrokes are still offering generous each-way terms of 1/4 odds the first 4 so I recommend backing Casey and Cabrera each-way with them.

Both of these two are also in my staking plan for this week. But as far as the OOM is concerned, 66/1 chance Cabrera finished 5th last year, along with two 11th places in the previous three years. The huge hitting Argentinian always plays well at this stage of the year in Europe, and has the potential to surprise some of the bigger names in the Majors. In the past his prize money tally has suffered as a consequence of the infrequency of his wins, but he isn't a bottler. The way Cabrera won the Volvo PGA last year for instance, was exemplary. With a bit of luck at the right time, he could easily emerge as a world-class player. Casey's price of 33/1 is even crazier. Paul plays a very heavy European schedule, and has been an absolute model of consistency since last autumn. He's had no luck in recent final rounds, but another win is surely around the corner. If he were to win this week, on a course where he won the last event played there, Casey would probably be single figures on Monday to win the money list, let alone finish in the first 4. As for Campbell, 66/1 would be massive if he were to recapture his 2005 form. I'm not overly concerned that this streaky player hasn't done anything notable since January as, like Cabrera, his season never seems to get going until the big money events in May. Backing him this week without a recent outing would be a risky business, but expect Cambo to be right back in the groove for Wentworth and his US Open defence. His price with Ladbrokes is much shorter than the best, so I recommend a win only bet on him with Skybet.

So onto this week's event at The Belfry. I don't think this event is too difficult a puzzle to solve. The course is not straightforward by any means, favouring the longer hitters and best iron players. I'll be surprised if more than 25 players finish under par. After working my way through the first 30 or so in the betting, I was left with a shortlist of only nine players who I give a decent chance to. Of those 9, I'm overlooking Colin Montgomerie whose form I am unconvinced about. Richard Green also bites the dust on the grounds that he doesn't win very often and bottled an outstanding chance to turn over Woods and Els in Dubai. The Aussie left-hander remains worth keeping an eye on in speciality bets, especially match bets and finishing positions. David Howell is reluctantly ignored due to a less than impressive course record, though it should be remembered the course form available is from 2000-2003, when Howell was nowhere near the player he is now. The biggest danger to my selections though, has to come from Padraig Harrington. Pod famously blew the B & H International here 6 years ago by being disqualified for signing an incorrect scorecard when 5 clear with a round to go. He also finished in the first three in 2002 and 2003. Clearly this is about a perfect a course for Harrington's usually world-class iron play, but I just can't find anything this season to suggest he's about to win. In fact, he has yet to post a top-10 finish in 2006. Were he to turn it around though, I could live to regret ignoring the 16/1 available here and more to the point, the 25/1 available for the Order of Merit.

Anyway, that leaves us with a shortlist of 5. Casey, impressive winner of the last event played here in 2003, is a very obvious choice. I've already argued his case for the Order of Merit, and this is a great opening opportunity. Cabrera too has a course record to die for, winner in 2002, runner-up the previous year and never worse than 9th. Ignore last week's missed cut in Italy, as that event was probably a warm-up before his favourite spell of the season. There was nothing wrong with his form 4 weeks ago at the Masters.

This course was the scene of HENRIK STENSON's first professional win at a huge price back in 2001. Clearly the Swede is about a hundred times more accomplished nowadays and must fancy his chances. After the win in Qatar and third-place at Sawgrass, 14/1 for an event in Europe would have seemed a bit fanciful but a couple of poor efforts and blowing a last round lead in China has seen his odds drift. When it comes to the central requirement at The Belfry, hitting it long and straight, nobody fits the bill better in this field than Stenson.

The other two selections are bigger prices, NICK DOUGHERTY and JOSE-MANUEL LARA. Dougherty is becoming expensive to follow, but I'm adamant he'll win this summer and at 40/1 he'll pay for all the previous losing weeks and some more. It would be pretty meaningless to look at Dougherty's disappointing efforts here in 2002 and 2003 when he was still very inexperienced. More interesting is 12th place behind Stenson back in his rookie year. In Nick's last event, he hit four sub-70 rounds so there's no reason to doubt his form. He too, should possess the credentials for this course. Finally Lara has to be included at massive odds of 80/1. I know he is yet to win a tournament, but his odds don't reflect the ultra-consistent form from tee to green Lara has shown lately. He is definitely one for speciality markets, such as a sell of his finishing position in the mid-30s.

Whereas in Europe, my bets are based around a belief that the winner will come from one of the market leaders, I take the completely opposite view of the US event, the Byron Nelson Classic. With Woods, Mickelson and Goosen absent, there are question marks surrounding so many of the contenders. Ernie Els and Sergio Garcia are struggling. Vijay Singh was a massive disappointment at the weekend, where a last round 81 when still in contention led some people to suggest he may be in terminal decline. A similar thing happened to Vijay at Sawgrass so its not an argument to be dismissed out of hand, but it would take a very brave man to write off this gutsy workaholic. It would be typical of Singh, with his pride wounded, to bounce back here but for now my patience with him has snapped. Adam Scott has never played here and is not generally suited to short par-70 courses. This leaves last week's winner Jim Furyk with a very big chance, but I wouldn't dream of backing him at odds of 10/1 to land rare back-to-back wins. His career form at Las Colinas is only fair, and he's never been a prolific winner.

Looking down the field, the candidates don't fare much better either. Geoff Ogilvy, Tim Clark and Luke Donald might have been considered were it not for either poor course form or injury worries. Scott Verplank looks bound to be there or thereabouts as usual, but rarely wins and makes more appeal in speciality markets. By process of elimination, I think its a fair punt that FRED COUPLES can land this, 19 years after last winning the event. As you'd expect for a player who has long fought against back trouble, Couples' record here is mixed. Aside the win in 1987, Freddy finished runner-up in 1998 and has another three top-10s to his name. 2006 has been his best year for a decade, with only a poor putting stroke on the final holes costing him victory at the Nissan Open and letting Mickelson get away from him on the back 9 at Augusta. I'm sure Freddy was instantly gutted to lose his chance in the Masters in that fashion, but on reflection he must be proud to have finished 3rd and shown that he can still compete at the very highest level. I'll be closing my eyes if he has a testing 3-footer to win on Sunday, but that shouldn't deter an interest at 40/1.

There's been a few big priced winners over the years in this event, with Robert Damron, Ted Purdy, Loren Roberts and John Cook all starting at three figure odds in the last decade. With so many of the shorter priced players unfancied, I've found a batch of outsiders who might represent a bit of value. Accuracy from tee to green is very much required on these courses, which must bring JERRY KELLY into calculations at 80/1. Kelly is usually seen to his best on such courses, and confirmed his wellbeing with a solid 5th place at Hilton Head Island last month. That was a third top-10 of the year for Jerry, who has shown before he is only just below top-class under the right conditions. Both he and Couples are also well worth a look in speciality markets.

2006 has been the best ever year for Australian golf, with Appleby, Pampling, Ogilvy and Baddeley landing 5 US Tour events between them already. The next Aussie to join that list could well be STEPHEN LEANEY. A multiple winner in Europe and Australasia, Leaney's career highlight has to be finishing runner-up to Jim Furyk in the 2003 US Open. He is another who is usually seen to best effect on courses that reward his accuracy, and has finished a creditable 7th and 27th in the last two years here. Just lately his stats have been particularly impressive without managing to string four good rounds together to seriously alert the judges. At 125/1, its worth having a punt that this is the week this proven winner finally clicks in the States.

My final two selections are extremely speculative. CHARLEY HOFFMAN and DAVID BRANSHAW have both run up some nice figures recently based around their tee to green game. At 150/1, a continuation of that form would give them an outside squeak. Slight preference is for Branshaw, who also finished 14th on his sole visit in 2004.

Good Luck!

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1 (LADBROKES)
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1 (LADBROKES)
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1 (SKYBET)

BRITISH MASTERS

3pts ew HENRIK STENSON @ 14/1 (BET DIRECT)
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 18/1 (BET DIRECT, BET365, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 80/1 (365, CORAL, PADDY POWER)

BYRON NELSON CLASSIC

1pt ew FRED COUPLES @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JERRY KELLY @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew STEPHEN LEANEY @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew DAVID BRANSDON @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 200/1 WITH SPORTING ODDS/BET)
0.5pts ew CHARLEY HOFFMAN @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-2.25pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

NOTE: LAST WEEK'S STATS WERE SLIGHTLY WRONG. I HAD FORGOTTEN TO ADD THE PLACE RETURNS OF JOSE-MANUEL LARA THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

The European Tour moves on to the Italian Open this week. The market leader and classiest player on show by some way is, at 7/1 Argentinian Angel Cabrera. I've no doubt he will be there or thereabouts, as he invariably is on European Tour outings. He makes no betting appeal though as a rare winner, and hasn't won this event at the last attempts (though he did lead going into the final round two years ago.

The best course form on offer comes from ANDERS HANSEN. The Dane has finished 9th and 2nd over the past two years so he must come into the reckoning on the back of some solid form in February and March. In particular, a replication of his effort in 4th place behind Woods and Els in Dubai would make Hansen a shoe-in amongst this company.

Several inexperienced prospects have done well on this course. Graeme McDowell won two years ago and Richard Finch was runner-up last year. On the basis that inexperience clearly isn't too much of a disadvantage, my other three selections are players who are nowhere near fulfilling their potential. Firstly, and quite obviously this looks a chance for Italian FRANCESCO MOLINARI to gain reward for some very solid recent form. Molinari looked very promising over the winter in the globet-trotting stage of the European Tour. Top-tens on world class courses at Perth and in the SA Open at Fancourt marked him down as a player to follow, so he must have a chance in his national Open on a course where he has registered two top-20 finishes already. Molinari also warmed up in the perfect style, playing four good rounds in Spain but never getting beyond the fringes of contention.

100/1 looks a big price for DAVID GRIFFITHS after his weekend exploits. I was particularly impressed with the way he bounced back from the worst possible start to his final round, watching a 2 shot lead disintegrate into an impossible deficit in minutes. Take out six holes when understandably feeling the pressure in a new situation, and Griffiths' week was nothing short of outstanding, an excellent follow up on another recent top-10 in the Algarve. Hopefully David will have learned from that experience, and can continue his progress this week.

The final selection is a small each-way punt on another hot prospect, ANDRES ROMERO. This young Argentinian is a recent graduate from the Challenge Tour, and is being tipped for great things by all sorts of judges. He did indeed look a very exciting prospect when third in Portugal last month. It would asking a lot to win at this early stage in his career, but 150/1 looks worth the risk. Like Molinari, he has already shown decent form here when even less experienced, finishing a highly respectable 21st last year.

I'm really hoping I can get to see some of the US Tour event this week, the Wachovia Championship at Quail Hollow. This venue has really established itself over the last couple of years, and the event attracts as strong a field as you'll find outside the Majors and Sawgrass. Of the players that matter, only Tiger Woods is missing from the field this week, spending time with his dying father.

In Tiger's absence, I am a bit surprised to see odds of 7/1 about Phil Mickelson chalked up. Lets just recap his recent record. He wins the Bellsouth Classic effectively after two rounds, and follows up with his second Masters victory pretty much assured by the back 9. On his first outing back, and probably a bit rusty, he makes a slow start before getting slowly into contention on Sunday only to finish with some bogeys chasing the title. Mickelson is clearly the best player in this field on current form and feared greatly, but perhaps he's done his share of winning for a while. Better to look for bigger prices I think.

On a proper test like Quail Hollow, I suspect this will be fought out by the top players. Of them, there's just too many doubts about Ernie Els' form and fitness to back him at the moment while compatriot Retief Goosen was unimpressive again at the weekend and has never played the course. Sergio Garcia would have a massive chance if he were to show any hint of form with the putter, but recent displays in that department have been truly desperate. David Toms and Chris Dimarco are out of form, and Stuart Appleby has a poor course record.

With doubts about all of these, the case for VIJAY SINGH retaining the title gains strength. Vijay must owe me a fortune now after all my losses on him in the last year, but I'm adamant that there is very little difference between Singh's form now and 18 months ago when he was World No 1. The key is a struggle with the putter, but nowhere near as pronounced as Garcia's problems. Quail Hollow will place a much greater emphasis on greens in regulation than usual, so putting should be less of a factor. No wonder then that the Fijian, who has few peers if any in the long game department, has finished 1st, 2nd and 10th here on three visits.

Similarly with doubts surrounding his main rivals, 33/1 about LUKE DONALD looks an absolutely massive price. Since winning the Honda Classic, and being widely greeted as a Major winner in waiting, a few bad weeks has seen his price shoot right back up to attractive levels. Struggling at Sawgrass and Augusta are hardly evidence of a great loss of form, and I expect Luke to bounce back very soon. Though his best finish from two previous attempts is a moderate 15th, Quail Hollow looks made for an accurate iron player like Donald.

As in recent weeks, I'm sticking with GEOFF OGILVY to continue his steady rise up the golfing echelons. The World Matchplay winner has barely had a bad round for months, and generally seems to be seen at his best on the tougher courses like this one and Major venues. A solid 22nd and 10th on his two previous visits, the logic of his overall improvement implies he must be a contender.

Finally its too early in the week to scour the match bets as few firms will have priced any up yet. If I get a chance to look, I'll let you know, but I will say this much. Look to oppose Stuart Appleby who is bound to be well rated on the back of a win and a fourth place in the last fortnight. It means very little - Apples has poor records on several courses he doesn't like, and hasn't done anything much in three Quail Hollow attempts.

Good Luck!

ITALIAN OPEN

2pts ew ANDERS HANSEN @ 25/1 (SPORTING BET/ODDS, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew FRANCESCO MOLINARI @ 33/1 (SPORTING BET, BET365, EXPEKT)
0.5pts ew DAVID GRIFFITHS @ 100/1 (SPORTING BET,EXPEKT)
0.5pts ew ANDRES ROMERO @ 150/1 (CORAL)

WACHOVIA CHAMPIONSHIP

3pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 14/1 (SPORTING BET, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew GEOFF OGILVY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-90.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts