Masters Snooker Preview
Despite the fact that it carries no ranking points, the Masters remains one of the most prestigious events in the snooker calendar, probably 3rd behind the World and UK Championships. Rightly so too, as this is the only tournament where all the top-ranked players are guaranteed to reach the last-16 stage. Normally, at least five or six bite the dust in the previous round, usually opening up the draw for lesser names to reach the latter stages. There's also the fact that there is only one table in use throughout, adding a further championship feel to the venue.
It all adds up to a tournament where the formbook has consistently stood up over the years. Nobody has won from beyond fourth place in the betting since the late Paul Hunter won the first of his three Masters titles in 2001, and that was hardly a massive surprise. Just as Stephen Hendry dominated this event when he ruled the snooker world back in the 1990s, RONNIE O'SULLIVAN has very much been 'Top Dog' at Wembley in recent years. Three times champion to date, Ronnie's last five Masters have produced two titles and two runners-up spots, losing deciding frames in the final on both occasions. Even last year's first-round exit was hardly a disgrace, as it came at the hands of World No.2 Stephen Maguire, again in a decider. This venue, near enough to enable him to return home between matches, generally seems to bring out the best of O'Sullivan in front of an adoring crowd.
As always, Ronnie is a very unreliable betting proposition. As far as I can recall, this is the first time I've ever tipped him before an event. Because of his massive popularity, Ronnie nearly always starts at terrible value odds. This was always the case in the 33 months that he went without winning a ranking title up until December 2007. However, on his form since then 3/1 is a perfectly reasonable price, with three ranking titles during that period including a third World Championship. Indeed had he defended his UK title last month, I doubt Ronnie would be starting at more than 2/1 now. He didn't win that event though, courtesy of a disastrous session that instantly rekindled memories of past misdemeanours. Having looked in quite awesome form in the first part of the match, he lost the last seven frames to Joe Perry, including one conceded when just 23 points down with several reds remaining.
That was indefensible, and has to be factored in as a possibility whenever considering a bet on O'Sullivan. And it doesn't help that he is drawn to meet Perry, who was quite outstanding in that session, in the first round at Wembley. This looks poised to be a great match, as even before the Telford result, their last two matches had gone to a deciding frame. I fancy Ronnie to win, playing impressively, and sparking a typically massive gamble. Remember the last time Ronnie let himself down in the UK Championships, when walking out of the 2006 quarter-final? His response was a determined, disciplined performance at Wembley, slaughtering Ding Junhui in the final. History could well repeat itself.
Though there are many other potential challengers, none have consistently shown their best form for a while. Maguire looks the main threat in Ronnie's half of the draw, and has at least reached a couple of semis this year, but still played some pretty erratic snooker when reaching that position in Telford. Nevertheless, he should reach the semis again at least.
Shaun Murphy turned a terrible run around to win that latest event, though again hasn't convinced me that he's at quite the consistent standard seen throughout 2007. Murphy's draw is anything but straightforward too, snared in a quarter that includes four plausible winners in the form of himself, Ding, Grand Prix champion John Higgins and Telford runner-up Marco Fu. Expect a series of close matches to determine that mini-race to the semi-final.
It would be easy to make a case for defending champion Mark Selby, were it not for single-figured odds. He's clearly a class performer bubbling under the surface, ready to return to his world-class best at any time. It may be of some relevance that Selby last week won the first group of the latest Championship League, so there is some very recent form in the book. And if he can repeat his superb performance in the Premier League semi when thrashing Hendry 5-0, I doubt anybody could live with Selby. But looking purely at results, he's simply not reliable enough to take such short prices about. After all, the Masters remains one of only two professional titles to his name. Even his first-round doesn't look entirely straightforward, as both potential opponents have beaten him in big matches recently; Ricky Walden in the Shanghai Masters semi-final and Mark King in the World Championship.
In the same top quarter, I prefer MARK ALLEN. I'm convinced this prolific break-builder is going to the very top, and am determined to stay loyal until he wins his first event. While he's available at 33/1 that remains a perfectly legitimate strategy. Moreover, I make him the bet of the first round to beat fellow prodigy Judd Trump at 8/11. The pair met in the penultimate ranking tournament in Bahrain, with Allen scoring a resounding 5-1 win. No doubt Trump is a star of the future, but for me he still looks very tactically naive. At this stage, Allen looks further ahead on their respective roads to the top.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
20pts win RONNIE O'SULLIVAN @ 3/1 (CORAL, BETFAIR, (11/4 BOYLESPORTS, REFUND IF MURPHY WINS)
3pts ew MARK ALLEN @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 35/1 BOYLESPORTS)
ROUND 1
15pts MARK ALLEN @ 8/11 (VS TRUMP) (GENERAL)
N.B. I shall also be writing a daily tipping column for the Betfair blog throughout the tournament, which can be found here http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/masters/
It all adds up to a tournament where the formbook has consistently stood up over the years. Nobody has won from beyond fourth place in the betting since the late Paul Hunter won the first of his three Masters titles in 2001, and that was hardly a massive surprise. Just as Stephen Hendry dominated this event when he ruled the snooker world back in the 1990s, RONNIE O'SULLIVAN has very much been 'Top Dog' at Wembley in recent years. Three times champion to date, Ronnie's last five Masters have produced two titles and two runners-up spots, losing deciding frames in the final on both occasions. Even last year's first-round exit was hardly a disgrace, as it came at the hands of World No.2 Stephen Maguire, again in a decider. This venue, near enough to enable him to return home between matches, generally seems to bring out the best of O'Sullivan in front of an adoring crowd.
As always, Ronnie is a very unreliable betting proposition. As far as I can recall, this is the first time I've ever tipped him before an event. Because of his massive popularity, Ronnie nearly always starts at terrible value odds. This was always the case in the 33 months that he went without winning a ranking title up until December 2007. However, on his form since then 3/1 is a perfectly reasonable price, with three ranking titles during that period including a third World Championship. Indeed had he defended his UK title last month, I doubt Ronnie would be starting at more than 2/1 now. He didn't win that event though, courtesy of a disastrous session that instantly rekindled memories of past misdemeanours. Having looked in quite awesome form in the first part of the match, he lost the last seven frames to Joe Perry, including one conceded when just 23 points down with several reds remaining.
That was indefensible, and has to be factored in as a possibility whenever considering a bet on O'Sullivan. And it doesn't help that he is drawn to meet Perry, who was quite outstanding in that session, in the first round at Wembley. This looks poised to be a great match, as even before the Telford result, their last two matches had gone to a deciding frame. I fancy Ronnie to win, playing impressively, and sparking a typically massive gamble. Remember the last time Ronnie let himself down in the UK Championships, when walking out of the 2006 quarter-final? His response was a determined, disciplined performance at Wembley, slaughtering Ding Junhui in the final. History could well repeat itself.
Though there are many other potential challengers, none have consistently shown their best form for a while. Maguire looks the main threat in Ronnie's half of the draw, and has at least reached a couple of semis this year, but still played some pretty erratic snooker when reaching that position in Telford. Nevertheless, he should reach the semis again at least.
Shaun Murphy turned a terrible run around to win that latest event, though again hasn't convinced me that he's at quite the consistent standard seen throughout 2007. Murphy's draw is anything but straightforward too, snared in a quarter that includes four plausible winners in the form of himself, Ding, Grand Prix champion John Higgins and Telford runner-up Marco Fu. Expect a series of close matches to determine that mini-race to the semi-final.
It would be easy to make a case for defending champion Mark Selby, were it not for single-figured odds. He's clearly a class performer bubbling under the surface, ready to return to his world-class best at any time. It may be of some relevance that Selby last week won the first group of the latest Championship League, so there is some very recent form in the book. And if he can repeat his superb performance in the Premier League semi when thrashing Hendry 5-0, I doubt anybody could live with Selby. But looking purely at results, he's simply not reliable enough to take such short prices about. After all, the Masters remains one of only two professional titles to his name. Even his first-round doesn't look entirely straightforward, as both potential opponents have beaten him in big matches recently; Ricky Walden in the Shanghai Masters semi-final and Mark King in the World Championship.
In the same top quarter, I prefer MARK ALLEN. I'm convinced this prolific break-builder is going to the very top, and am determined to stay loyal until he wins his first event. While he's available at 33/1 that remains a perfectly legitimate strategy. Moreover, I make him the bet of the first round to beat fellow prodigy Judd Trump at 8/11. The pair met in the penultimate ranking tournament in Bahrain, with Allen scoring a resounding 5-1 win. No doubt Trump is a star of the future, but for me he still looks very tactically naive. At this stage, Allen looks further ahead on their respective roads to the top.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
20pts win RONNIE O'SULLIVAN @ 3/1 (CORAL, BETFAIR, (11/4 BOYLESPORTS, REFUND IF MURPHY WINS)
3pts ew MARK ALLEN @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 35/1 BOYLESPORTS)
ROUND 1
15pts MARK ALLEN @ 8/11 (VS TRUMP) (GENERAL)
N.B. I shall also be writing a daily tipping column for the Betfair blog throughout the tournament, which can be found here http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/masters/
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:29 PM
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