Vijay Can Land Long Overdue Doral Triumph
Though slightly lacking the stature of a Major championship, this week's Ford Championship at Doral comes pretty close for status with the strongest field assembled for a strokeplay event anywhere so far in 2006 with nine of the world's top ten on show. The course, the Blue Monster, partly lives up to its name with water hazards galore. Time was when accuracy from tee to green was everything at Doral, though in recent years the long-hitters have begun to come into their own with improved technology making a long drive into the rough no great handicap for Woods et al. In fact, looking at recent results here, Doral looks almost as favourable to the elite players as any course on tour with the exception of Augusta. There's always a temptation to pick out big-priced each-way fancies, but there seems little point this week as I expect at least four of those market leaders to make the top-10.
In perfect scoring conditions last year, a resurgent TIGER WOODS regained his World No 1 slot, touching off a peak form Phil Mickelson with a quality leaderboard trailing far behind. Mickelson is in nowhere near the form of last year, and is readily opposed on a course where previously he had always struggled on the greens. But Woods simply must be in the shake up, and there seems to be some over-reaction in his price to a completely irrelevant defeat in 18-hole matchplay to Chad Campbell last week. Tiger's form in the first round against Stephen Ames was absolutely scintillating and proves he is somewhere near his best. And he has already shown in Dubai and Torrey Pines this year that he doesn't have to play at his absolute peak to defeat world class fields.
VIJAY SINGH, though, looks the best each-way bet on the basis of an extremely consistent course record despite never winning, with five top-5 finishes from his last eight visits, including the last three years consecutively. This time last year he arrived as the world's leading player though Tiger has since laid any of that talk to rest. Nevertheless, at 10 points bigger than Woods, the Fijian has to come into the equation. I was quite impressed with his form at La Costa last week on a course and format that have never suited and 7th on his previous outing at Pebble Beach confirmed that he remains in form. With Vijay, everything revolves around the weakest part of his game with the putter, but he looked slightly more confident in that area last week. Having failed so far to follow up on the promise of his fine showing at the Mercedes in the opening event of the year, this could be the moment for a first win of 2006.
Others who must come into it are previous champions Jim Furyk and Ernie Els. Furyk may well have made the staking plan on a course he adores, were it not for the fact that his odds have been duly shortened. I fear Ernie greatly too, but I'm still not entirely convinced everything is 100% with his game following a long injury. Similarly, Retief Goosen would come into it on past form, but looked below his peak at La Costa.
The European Tour moves on to Indonesia, but with Doral dominating the schedule its no surprise to see a very weak turnout. The leading Asians dominate the market and will take plenty of beating. Thongchai Jaidee is favourite as usual, but hardly qualifies as value at 7/1. I'm going to give another chance to defending champion THAWORN WIRATCHANT, despite a poor weekend carrying our money in Malaysia recently. To my mind, there's very little between him and Jaidee for the honour of leading Asian, with Indians Jyoti Randhawa and Shiv Kapur close up behind. In fact, the bet of the week is to get with all four of them in IGSport's Asian hotshots market. The scoring works like this: 20 points for a top-10 finish, 20 points bonus for winning, 20 points bonus if all 4 make the cut. The market can be bought at 42 which looks very cheap considering how poor the opposition is.
In such a poor field, some of the lesser, consistent players have to come into contention. Australian MARCUS FRASER regularly makes cuts and top-30s in higher company, which is form to be taken seriously at this level. Fraser has actually shown at least equivalent form in this part of the world than in his native Australia so looks well worth a speculative each-way punt at 80/1
It wouldn't surprise me in the least were a three figure winner to emerge this week. So at 125/1, have a small interest on Sweden's FREDRIK WIDMARK. Widmark was a revelation on the Challenge Tour last season and has started fairly well in the higher grade so far, going well for a long way in Malaysia recently. Twice a winner on the lesser Tour last year among a string of consistent high finishes, at least we know he's capable of holding it together when the pressure is on. Even if this isn't his week, he's a big-priced player to keep an eye on this season.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
INDONESIAN OPEN
2pts ew THAWORN WIRATCHANT @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, BET365, CORALS GO 18/1)
1pt ew MARCUS FRASER @ 80/1 (PADDY POWER, VICTOR CHANDLER)
0.5pts ew FREDRIK WIDMARK @ 125/1 (BETFRED, VICTOR CHANDLER, HILLS)
BUY ASIAN HOTSHOTS @ 42 (IGSPORT)
FORD CHAMPIONSHIP AT DORAL
6pts win TIGER WOODS @ 7/2 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, BLUESQ GO 14/1)
In perfect scoring conditions last year, a resurgent TIGER WOODS regained his World No 1 slot, touching off a peak form Phil Mickelson with a quality leaderboard trailing far behind. Mickelson is in nowhere near the form of last year, and is readily opposed on a course where previously he had always struggled on the greens. But Woods simply must be in the shake up, and there seems to be some over-reaction in his price to a completely irrelevant defeat in 18-hole matchplay to Chad Campbell last week. Tiger's form in the first round against Stephen Ames was absolutely scintillating and proves he is somewhere near his best. And he has already shown in Dubai and Torrey Pines this year that he doesn't have to play at his absolute peak to defeat world class fields.
VIJAY SINGH, though, looks the best each-way bet on the basis of an extremely consistent course record despite never winning, with five top-5 finishes from his last eight visits, including the last three years consecutively. This time last year he arrived as the world's leading player though Tiger has since laid any of that talk to rest. Nevertheless, at 10 points bigger than Woods, the Fijian has to come into the equation. I was quite impressed with his form at La Costa last week on a course and format that have never suited and 7th on his previous outing at Pebble Beach confirmed that he remains in form. With Vijay, everything revolves around the weakest part of his game with the putter, but he looked slightly more confident in that area last week. Having failed so far to follow up on the promise of his fine showing at the Mercedes in the opening event of the year, this could be the moment for a first win of 2006.
Others who must come into it are previous champions Jim Furyk and Ernie Els. Furyk may well have made the staking plan on a course he adores, were it not for the fact that his odds have been duly shortened. I fear Ernie greatly too, but I'm still not entirely convinced everything is 100% with his game following a long injury. Similarly, Retief Goosen would come into it on past form, but looked below his peak at La Costa.
The European Tour moves on to Indonesia, but with Doral dominating the schedule its no surprise to see a very weak turnout. The leading Asians dominate the market and will take plenty of beating. Thongchai Jaidee is favourite as usual, but hardly qualifies as value at 7/1. I'm going to give another chance to defending champion THAWORN WIRATCHANT, despite a poor weekend carrying our money in Malaysia recently. To my mind, there's very little between him and Jaidee for the honour of leading Asian, with Indians Jyoti Randhawa and Shiv Kapur close up behind. In fact, the bet of the week is to get with all four of them in IGSport's Asian hotshots market. The scoring works like this: 20 points for a top-10 finish, 20 points bonus for winning, 20 points bonus if all 4 make the cut. The market can be bought at 42 which looks very cheap considering how poor the opposition is.
In such a poor field, some of the lesser, consistent players have to come into contention. Australian MARCUS FRASER regularly makes cuts and top-30s in higher company, which is form to be taken seriously at this level. Fraser has actually shown at least equivalent form in this part of the world than in his native Australia so looks well worth a speculative each-way punt at 80/1
It wouldn't surprise me in the least were a three figure winner to emerge this week. So at 125/1, have a small interest on Sweden's FREDRIK WIDMARK. Widmark was a revelation on the Challenge Tour last season and has started fairly well in the higher grade so far, going well for a long way in Malaysia recently. Twice a winner on the lesser Tour last year among a string of consistent high finishes, at least we know he's capable of holding it together when the pressure is on. Even if this isn't his week, he's a big-priced player to keep an eye on this season.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
INDONESIAN OPEN
2pts ew THAWORN WIRATCHANT @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, BET365, CORALS GO 18/1)
1pt ew MARCUS FRASER @ 80/1 (PADDY POWER, VICTOR CHANDLER)
0.5pts ew FREDRIK WIDMARK @ 125/1 (BETFRED, VICTOR CHANDLER, HILLS)
BUY ASIAN HOTSHOTS @ 42 (IGSPORT)
FORD CHAMPIONSHIP AT DORAL
6pts win TIGER WOODS @ 7/2 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, BLUESQ GO 14/1)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 2:28 AM
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