World Snooker Championship Betting Preview
Forget Christmas, Easter and the rest, the best 17 days of the calendar are at last upon us in the form of the Betfred.com World Snooker Championships.
To look at the betting, it would be easy to conclude that snooker was a one-horse race. Defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan starts his bid for a fourth title at just 9/4, which I'm pretty sure is the shortest that this perennially under-priced character has ever been at Sheffield.
The reality is very different, pointing to a sport that is as wide open as ever. The eight top-grade tournaments this season have produced seven different winners, 13 different finalists and 19 different semi-finalists.
In making Ronnie such a short price, no doubt people are thinking back to last year, when the Rocket swept all before him without breaking out of a sweat. But there is one very good reason to expect things to be different this time around; the draw. Last year, the only realistic threat he faced on route to the final came from Mark Williams, and even his opponent in the final, Ali Carter, had never previously won a ranking tournament.
Ronnie's trouble over the years at Sheffield has been maintaining his focus for the full 17 days, tending to ruin his chance by losing one session badly in one of the longer, latter-stage matches. While his attitude has generally improved from its lowest points, (such as walking out of the 2006 UK Championship quarter-final), he is still not totally reliable. Its only five months since he effectively gave up against Joe Perry in that same event, conceding one frame when only 20 odd points behind. Those weaknesses weren't an issue last year, arguably because none of his opponents put him under any serious pressure. Even if Ronnie had lost interest in one match, he would have been too far in front for it to make a difference.
This time, I'm sure he will be tested on more than one occasion. First round opponent Stuart Bingham seems unlikely to present too many difficulties, but the likely opponents in every round afterwards are more than capable of capitalising should Ronnie start giving them opportunities. Probable last-16 opponent Mark Allen is an outstanding prospect, and well capable of winning their match. In the quarters, Ronnie would likely meet either Ryan Day, conquerer of the defending champion last year and undisputed holder of the "Best player never to have won a ranking event' title, or PETER EBDON.
Ebdon is particularly interesting. The 2002 champion had looked finished as a top-class player until bouncing back to win last month's China Open. There are few players better suited to the long, high-pressure matches of the Crucible than Ebdon, who has reached the quarters here a hugely impressive eleven times. It seems that as he's got older, Ebdon has saved all his best snooker for the spring.
Furthermore there is no love lost between him and Ronnie and should they meet in the quarters, parallels will inevitably be drawn with their 2005 clash at the same stage. On that occasion, slow-playing Ebdon drove his opponent to distraction and ground out a 13-11 win.
In truth, even if Ebdon could represent a bit of value at a nice price, I expect O'Sullivan to come through these early tests, though the danger is that they might take a lot out of him. And that could be costly in the latter stages, with his main rivals yet to come. If the draw pans out as expected, he will face either Mark Selby or John Higgins in the semis, either of whom would present a massive obstacle over the longer matches. Indeed, Higgins ended Ronnie's challenge two years ago on the way to his second title, and again in China last month.
I find it very hard to take a strong view about which player will reach the final from that top half of the draw. All three of those big-names hold strong chances, and there are several other potential challengers. I've already mentioned Day and Ebdon in Ronnie's quarter, and in the next section Joe Perry, Jamie Cope, Graeme Dott and Ricky Walden are all well capable of springing an upset.
All of this points to focussing most of my attention, and cash, on the other half of the draw instead. Having made a fool of myself tipping him in the past, I'm wary of going in too heavily on STEPHEN MAGUIRE, but its hard not to be attracted by his 8/1 quote. Quite simply, I cannot see anybody stopping Maguire reaching the quarter-finals, by which stage he will be a shorter price and hopefully have played himself into form.
Maguire is too good to go through his career without ever winning this title. (OK, I know the same could have been said about Jimmy White). On his day, he is a breakbuilding machine; comparable to Ronnie and Hendry at their peak. I was fortunate enough earlier in the season to witness his destruction of NEIL ROBERTSON in the Masters from close up, and it was as good a performance as I can remember. That's not the first time he's annihalated Robertson; Maguire hammered the Aussie star 8-0 in one session here last year. On that form, only Ronnie and perhaps Higgins could live with him. And he won't meet either of them until the final, if at all.
For all his talent, Stephen has let himself down at crucial moments at the Crucible. After despatching Robertson in last year's championship, he never found the same fluency in the quarter-final, enabling Joe Perry to cause the upset of the round. A year earlier, he led Higgins 14-10 going into the final session of the semi, only to crumble under pressure. Nevertheless, you have to think that at some stage in his career, 'On Fire' Maguire will put it all together when it matters.
After what look like a couple of straightforward rounds, Maguire is scheduled to meet either Carter or Robertson. Its hard to see anyone else in this bottom quarter reaching the semis, as all the qualifiers look weak. On this year's form Carter would have to be the pick, but at twice the odds Robbo looks slightly better value.
After all, while the 'Melbourne Machine' has rarely impressed this year apart from when winning the Bahrain Championship, he is a class act and has produced the goods at the Crucible before. Three years ago, he was painfully unlucky to lose to eventual winner Graeme Dott, and was edged out in a classic last-16 match against O'Sullivan in 2007. The suspicion with Robertson is that he's perhaps not the most dedicated professional over the whole year, but its worth taking a chance at these odds that he's ready for the season's premiere event.
The third quarter contains at least four plausible winners. 2005 champion Shaun Murphy is the shortest price to add to his UK title, and is greatly respected given an excellent record at the Crucible, which is close to his home. However, while I expect he'll trade at shorter odds, and should have little trouble getting past Andrew Higginson in round one, Murphy hasn't been particularly impressive this season, even when winning that UK title.
My view is that he could come a cropper against MARCO FU in the last-16. When the pair met in the UK final, Murphy edged out the Hong Kong player in a decider, but that miniscule difference isn't enough to warrant the wide disparity in their odds. Fu is arguably the most under-rated player around; not flashy by any means, but a very effective break-builder with a solid temperament. 33/1 certainly seems a big price for the player at No.7 in the provisional rankings.
Its frankly an insult to Fu, and others for that matter, that he is a bigger price than Ding Junhui. Ding's 20/1 quote seems based on the hype a couple of years back, when he was widely predicted to challenge O'Sullivan for the No.1 spot. Since breaking down in tears in the 2007 Masters final at Wembley, Ding hasn't reached a single ranking event semi-final and he arrives in Sheffield with his top-16 spot seriously in peril. The best bet of the first round could be fellow Chinese prodigy Liang Wenbo to take out his more famous opponent at 2/1, an upset that would ensure the odds about Maguire, Robertson and Fu all tumble.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
12pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 8/1 (GENERAL, 10.0 BETFAIR)
3pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 25/1 (GENERAL)
3pts ew MARCO FU @ 33/1 (SPORTINGBET, STANJAMES, BETFRED, PADDYPOWER, CENTREBET)
1.5pts ew PETER EBDON @ 40/1 (GENERAL)
N.B. As well as several pre-tournament articles, I shall also be writing a daily tips column for the Betfair blog. They can be found at http://betting.betfair.com
To look at the betting, it would be easy to conclude that snooker was a one-horse race. Defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan starts his bid for a fourth title at just 9/4, which I'm pretty sure is the shortest that this perennially under-priced character has ever been at Sheffield.
The reality is very different, pointing to a sport that is as wide open as ever. The eight top-grade tournaments this season have produced seven different winners, 13 different finalists and 19 different semi-finalists.
In making Ronnie such a short price, no doubt people are thinking back to last year, when the Rocket swept all before him without breaking out of a sweat. But there is one very good reason to expect things to be different this time around; the draw. Last year, the only realistic threat he faced on route to the final came from Mark Williams, and even his opponent in the final, Ali Carter, had never previously won a ranking tournament.
Ronnie's trouble over the years at Sheffield has been maintaining his focus for the full 17 days, tending to ruin his chance by losing one session badly in one of the longer, latter-stage matches. While his attitude has generally improved from its lowest points, (such as walking out of the 2006 UK Championship quarter-final), he is still not totally reliable. Its only five months since he effectively gave up against Joe Perry in that same event, conceding one frame when only 20 odd points behind. Those weaknesses weren't an issue last year, arguably because none of his opponents put him under any serious pressure. Even if Ronnie had lost interest in one match, he would have been too far in front for it to make a difference.
This time, I'm sure he will be tested on more than one occasion. First round opponent Stuart Bingham seems unlikely to present too many difficulties, but the likely opponents in every round afterwards are more than capable of capitalising should Ronnie start giving them opportunities. Probable last-16 opponent Mark Allen is an outstanding prospect, and well capable of winning their match. In the quarters, Ronnie would likely meet either Ryan Day, conquerer of the defending champion last year and undisputed holder of the "Best player never to have won a ranking event' title, or PETER EBDON.
Ebdon is particularly interesting. The 2002 champion had looked finished as a top-class player until bouncing back to win last month's China Open. There are few players better suited to the long, high-pressure matches of the Crucible than Ebdon, who has reached the quarters here a hugely impressive eleven times. It seems that as he's got older, Ebdon has saved all his best snooker for the spring.
Furthermore there is no love lost between him and Ronnie and should they meet in the quarters, parallels will inevitably be drawn with their 2005 clash at the same stage. On that occasion, slow-playing Ebdon drove his opponent to distraction and ground out a 13-11 win.
In truth, even if Ebdon could represent a bit of value at a nice price, I expect O'Sullivan to come through these early tests, though the danger is that they might take a lot out of him. And that could be costly in the latter stages, with his main rivals yet to come. If the draw pans out as expected, he will face either Mark Selby or John Higgins in the semis, either of whom would present a massive obstacle over the longer matches. Indeed, Higgins ended Ronnie's challenge two years ago on the way to his second title, and again in China last month.
I find it very hard to take a strong view about which player will reach the final from that top half of the draw. All three of those big-names hold strong chances, and there are several other potential challengers. I've already mentioned Day and Ebdon in Ronnie's quarter, and in the next section Joe Perry, Jamie Cope, Graeme Dott and Ricky Walden are all well capable of springing an upset.
All of this points to focussing most of my attention, and cash, on the other half of the draw instead. Having made a fool of myself tipping him in the past, I'm wary of going in too heavily on STEPHEN MAGUIRE, but its hard not to be attracted by his 8/1 quote. Quite simply, I cannot see anybody stopping Maguire reaching the quarter-finals, by which stage he will be a shorter price and hopefully have played himself into form.
Maguire is too good to go through his career without ever winning this title. (OK, I know the same could have been said about Jimmy White). On his day, he is a breakbuilding machine; comparable to Ronnie and Hendry at their peak. I was fortunate enough earlier in the season to witness his destruction of NEIL ROBERTSON in the Masters from close up, and it was as good a performance as I can remember. That's not the first time he's annihalated Robertson; Maguire hammered the Aussie star 8-0 in one session here last year. On that form, only Ronnie and perhaps Higgins could live with him. And he won't meet either of them until the final, if at all.
For all his talent, Stephen has let himself down at crucial moments at the Crucible. After despatching Robertson in last year's championship, he never found the same fluency in the quarter-final, enabling Joe Perry to cause the upset of the round. A year earlier, he led Higgins 14-10 going into the final session of the semi, only to crumble under pressure. Nevertheless, you have to think that at some stage in his career, 'On Fire' Maguire will put it all together when it matters.
After what look like a couple of straightforward rounds, Maguire is scheduled to meet either Carter or Robertson. Its hard to see anyone else in this bottom quarter reaching the semis, as all the qualifiers look weak. On this year's form Carter would have to be the pick, but at twice the odds Robbo looks slightly better value.
After all, while the 'Melbourne Machine' has rarely impressed this year apart from when winning the Bahrain Championship, he is a class act and has produced the goods at the Crucible before. Three years ago, he was painfully unlucky to lose to eventual winner Graeme Dott, and was edged out in a classic last-16 match against O'Sullivan in 2007. The suspicion with Robertson is that he's perhaps not the most dedicated professional over the whole year, but its worth taking a chance at these odds that he's ready for the season's premiere event.
The third quarter contains at least four plausible winners. 2005 champion Shaun Murphy is the shortest price to add to his UK title, and is greatly respected given an excellent record at the Crucible, which is close to his home. However, while I expect he'll trade at shorter odds, and should have little trouble getting past Andrew Higginson in round one, Murphy hasn't been particularly impressive this season, even when winning that UK title.
My view is that he could come a cropper against MARCO FU in the last-16. When the pair met in the UK final, Murphy edged out the Hong Kong player in a decider, but that miniscule difference isn't enough to warrant the wide disparity in their odds. Fu is arguably the most under-rated player around; not flashy by any means, but a very effective break-builder with a solid temperament. 33/1 certainly seems a big price for the player at No.7 in the provisional rankings.
Its frankly an insult to Fu, and others for that matter, that he is a bigger price than Ding Junhui. Ding's 20/1 quote seems based on the hype a couple of years back, when he was widely predicted to challenge O'Sullivan for the No.1 spot. Since breaking down in tears in the 2007 Masters final at Wembley, Ding hasn't reached a single ranking event semi-final and he arrives in Sheffield with his top-16 spot seriously in peril. The best bet of the first round could be fellow Chinese prodigy Liang Wenbo to take out his more famous opponent at 2/1, an upset that would ensure the odds about Maguire, Robertson and Fu all tumble.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
12pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 8/1 (GENERAL, 10.0 BETFAIR)
3pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 25/1 (GENERAL)
3pts ew MARCO FU @ 33/1 (SPORTINGBET, STANJAMES, BETFRED, PADDYPOWER, CENTREBET)
1.5pts ew PETER EBDON @ 40/1 (GENERAL)
N.B. As well as several pre-tournament articles, I shall also be writing a daily tips column for the Betfair blog. They can be found at http://betting.betfair.com
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 8:48 AM
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