TPC Sawgrass Preview
Hopefully this week offers a chance to reverse my poor recent form as the Players' Championship at Sawgrass is one of my three favourite events of the year. Widely known as the 5th Major, from next year this will have an even higher profile as it is moved to May. From a betting perspective, the unique demands of this stadium course usually offers more opportunities than the predictable Masters or the guessing game known as the USPGA. Players seem to either love or hate Sawgrass, with its tight rough, fast greens and stomach-churning finish. The island par-3 17th hole and long, water-threatened 18th represents the toughest finish in golf, with no lead absolutely certain to be enough as the finale approaches. Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Retief Goosen have never looked like winning here while Vijay Singh's record is patchy at best. Tiger Woods did win and come 2nd here when at his absolute peak, but has generally struggled and will need to be much more accurate than he has generally been of late to contend.
I doubt there's a course better suited to the talents of rising British star LUKE DONALD. Luke looks every inch a world class player nowadays, but on many courses a worry remains that he doesn't have the length off the tee that nearly all the other leading players possess. At Sawgrass, however, length is pretty much irrelevant compared to keeping the ball in play and away from the many hazards so with his ultra-consistent long game I expect Donald to build up a bank of high finishes in the 5th Major over the years. Despite landing a win in the invitational Target Challenge just before Christmas, victory in the Honda Classic a fortnight ago was a pivotal moment in his short career, as it showed he can win a top class event from the front after a few missed chances. Leading going into the final round here last year, I thought he lost nothing in defeat in one of the most exciting finishes of 2005.
Another player right in the thick of it last year was 2004 winner ADAM SCOTT. Scott was bidding for a very unlikely defence on that occasion in an event where defending champions have a dire record, but only lost his chance on the 71st hole. Despite a disappointing effort last week, I'm sticking with him as he looks far more likely to contend than nearly all the similarly or shorter priced contenders. The young Aussie also rates my best match bet of the week against David Toms, who hasn't finished higher than 12th in his last ten Sawgrass visits.
Much of the best value lies in the speciality markets this week. The Players' Championship is generally won by a class act, so there's a strong argument for choosing from amongst the top players in the outright market, but from further down the list, the same names appear in the top-10 and top-20 year after year. I have a shortlist of six Americans likely to go well but its best to play all of them in the top American market where we needn't take on either of the main selections. I'd be very disappointed to not get at least one place.
In particular two prices stand out here, TOM LEHMAN at 50/1 and JERRY KELLY at 80/1. US Ryder Cup captain Lehman has every chance of making his own team as a player and he holds a superb record on this course. I was amazed to get 80/1 on him for the same market last year when he tied for second with Donald and SCOTT VERPLANK. Arguably Lehman is in better form this time around and looks probably double the correct price here.
Accurate Kelly is another course specialist, with three top-11 finishes in five years. He certainly comes into the event in the best form for a long while, finishing 2nd and 7th in consecutive weeks before a missed cut at Bay Hill. I would have advised Kelly at 125/1 for the outright if it wasn't for the better value 80/1 for top American. Ultra-consistent Verplank must also be worth an interest here at 20/1 when he's only 33/1 against the whole field. Making up my US team are CHAD CAMPBELL, ZACH JOHNSON and DAVIS LOVE. Love's chance is obvious having twice won the event and shown his best form for a long while recently when reaching the World Matchplay final. Campbell has only the one good Sawgrass showing to his name, but plays hard courses well and has been much more consistent all year. As for Johnson, this accurate player looks made for Sawgrass and looked as likely a winner as anyone for a long way last year. He's come into form at just the right time with top efforts at the Matchplay and Ford Championship.
Several of these players represent good value for match bets. Campbell must be backed to beat Chris Dimarco on the well used horses for courses argument. As much as my respect for Dimarco has grown lately, I don't expect him to do anything this week on a course where he's never made the top-20. Alternatively Campbell is yet to miss a cut in 2006 so a high finish will be required to finish above him. Johnson and Lehman are worth siding with against the same player, Rory Sabbatini. Big-hitting Sabbatini has never looked suited to Sawgrass as five missed cuts and a 42nd place from six starts testifies.
Two spread bets also look worthy of a mention. Aside from Scott, I fancy two other Australians, NICK O'HERN and ROBERT ALLENBY, and spread look the best route. O'Hern has become the match and spread bet king in recent years, as well as the man you'd most like to lay when favourite. Despite apparently having no bottle, the left-hander is as consistent as they come and should love Sawgrass. On his first visit last year, Nick came back well from an opening 76 to finish a respectable 24th. I recommend a sell of his finishing position at 36, and a sell of Allenby at 33. I've always had Allenby down as a potential Sawgrass winner, but the clinching factor was a fine effort at Bay Hill at the weekend. Bob's form in his native Australia over the winter was genuinely world-class but it was re-assuring to see this multiple winner do something good in the States.
Betfair have at last added a top-10 market, along with Stan James and Skybet. This has always been a favourite market of mine, and I recommend backing several of these players here. Lehman is simply massive at 8/1, as are O'Hern, Allenby and Johnson at 8/1, 5/1 and 6/1 respectively. The best value though, has to be US Open champ MICHAEL CAMPBELL at 10/1. This is a classic case of over-reaction to one bad week. Missing the cut at Bay Hill was a disappointing effort but Cambo's schedule has been very light so far in 2006. Two of his last three Sawgrass efforts, when a fraction of the player he is today, resulted in top-15 finishes so clearly the course suits.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
3pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
TOP US PLAYER
1pt ew TOM LEHMAN @ 50/1 (STAN JAMES)
1pt ew JERRY KELLY @ 80/1 (BLUESQ)
1pt ew SCOTT VERPLANK @ 20/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET)
1pt ew CHAD CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 33/1 (BLUESQ, STAN JAMES)
1pt ew DAVIS LOVE @ 22/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
72-HOLE MATCH BETS
11pts ADAM SCOTT TO BEAT DAVID TOMS @ 10/11(BETFAIR, LADBROKES, BETFRED, TOTE)
11pts CHAD CAMPBELL TO BEAT CHRIS DIMARCO @ 10/11 (BETFRED, VICTOR CHANDLER)
11pts TOM LEHMAN TO BEAT RORY SABBATINI @ 10/11 (LADBROKES)
6pts ZACH JOHNSON @ 10/11 TO BEAT RORY SABBATINI @ 10/11 (TOTE)
TOP 10 FINISH
3pts MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 10/1 (STAN JAMES)
3pts NICK O'HERN @ 8/1 (SKYBET, STAN JAMES)
2pts TOM LEHMAN @ 8/1 (STAN JAMES)
2pts ROBERT ALLENBY @ 5/1 (STAN JAMES)
2pts ZACH JOHNSON @ 6/1 (STAN JAMES)
2pts JERRY KELLY @ 8/1 (STAN JAMES)
SPREADS
SELL NICK O'HERN FINISHING POSITION 3pts @ 36
SELL ROBERT ALLENBY FINISHING POSITION 2pts @ 33
2006 STATS: (-95.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
I doubt there's a course better suited to the talents of rising British star LUKE DONALD. Luke looks every inch a world class player nowadays, but on many courses a worry remains that he doesn't have the length off the tee that nearly all the other leading players possess. At Sawgrass, however, length is pretty much irrelevant compared to keeping the ball in play and away from the many hazards so with his ultra-consistent long game I expect Donald to build up a bank of high finishes in the 5th Major over the years. Despite landing a win in the invitational Target Challenge just before Christmas, victory in the Honda Classic a fortnight ago was a pivotal moment in his short career, as it showed he can win a top class event from the front after a few missed chances. Leading going into the final round here last year, I thought he lost nothing in defeat in one of the most exciting finishes of 2005.
Another player right in the thick of it last year was 2004 winner ADAM SCOTT. Scott was bidding for a very unlikely defence on that occasion in an event where defending champions have a dire record, but only lost his chance on the 71st hole. Despite a disappointing effort last week, I'm sticking with him as he looks far more likely to contend than nearly all the similarly or shorter priced contenders. The young Aussie also rates my best match bet of the week against David Toms, who hasn't finished higher than 12th in his last ten Sawgrass visits.
Much of the best value lies in the speciality markets this week. The Players' Championship is generally won by a class act, so there's a strong argument for choosing from amongst the top players in the outright market, but from further down the list, the same names appear in the top-10 and top-20 year after year. I have a shortlist of six Americans likely to go well but its best to play all of them in the top American market where we needn't take on either of the main selections. I'd be very disappointed to not get at least one place.
In particular two prices stand out here, TOM LEHMAN at 50/1 and JERRY KELLY at 80/1. US Ryder Cup captain Lehman has every chance of making his own team as a player and he holds a superb record on this course. I was amazed to get 80/1 on him for the same market last year when he tied for second with Donald and SCOTT VERPLANK. Arguably Lehman is in better form this time around and looks probably double the correct price here.
Accurate Kelly is another course specialist, with three top-11 finishes in five years. He certainly comes into the event in the best form for a long while, finishing 2nd and 7th in consecutive weeks before a missed cut at Bay Hill. I would have advised Kelly at 125/1 for the outright if it wasn't for the better value 80/1 for top American. Ultra-consistent Verplank must also be worth an interest here at 20/1 when he's only 33/1 against the whole field. Making up my US team are CHAD CAMPBELL, ZACH JOHNSON and DAVIS LOVE. Love's chance is obvious having twice won the event and shown his best form for a long while recently when reaching the World Matchplay final. Campbell has only the one good Sawgrass showing to his name, but plays hard courses well and has been much more consistent all year. As for Johnson, this accurate player looks made for Sawgrass and looked as likely a winner as anyone for a long way last year. He's come into form at just the right time with top efforts at the Matchplay and Ford Championship.
Several of these players represent good value for match bets. Campbell must be backed to beat Chris Dimarco on the well used horses for courses argument. As much as my respect for Dimarco has grown lately, I don't expect him to do anything this week on a course where he's never made the top-20. Alternatively Campbell is yet to miss a cut in 2006 so a high finish will be required to finish above him. Johnson and Lehman are worth siding with against the same player, Rory Sabbatini. Big-hitting Sabbatini has never looked suited to Sawgrass as five missed cuts and a 42nd place from six starts testifies.
Two spread bets also look worthy of a mention. Aside from Scott, I fancy two other Australians, NICK O'HERN and ROBERT ALLENBY, and spread look the best route. O'Hern has become the match and spread bet king in recent years, as well as the man you'd most like to lay when favourite. Despite apparently having no bottle, the left-hander is as consistent as they come and should love Sawgrass. On his first visit last year, Nick came back well from an opening 76 to finish a respectable 24th. I recommend a sell of his finishing position at 36, and a sell of Allenby at 33. I've always had Allenby down as a potential Sawgrass winner, but the clinching factor was a fine effort at Bay Hill at the weekend. Bob's form in his native Australia over the winter was genuinely world-class but it was re-assuring to see this multiple winner do something good in the States.
Betfair have at last added a top-10 market, along with Stan James and Skybet. This has always been a favourite market of mine, and I recommend backing several of these players here. Lehman is simply massive at 8/1, as are O'Hern, Allenby and Johnson at 8/1, 5/1 and 6/1 respectively. The best value though, has to be US Open champ MICHAEL CAMPBELL at 10/1. This is a classic case of over-reaction to one bad week. Missing the cut at Bay Hill was a disappointing effort but Cambo's schedule has been very light so far in 2006. Two of his last three Sawgrass efforts, when a fraction of the player he is today, resulted in top-15 finishes so clearly the course suits.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
3pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
TOP US PLAYER
1pt ew TOM LEHMAN @ 50/1 (STAN JAMES)
1pt ew JERRY KELLY @ 80/1 (BLUESQ)
1pt ew SCOTT VERPLANK @ 20/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET)
1pt ew CHAD CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 33/1 (BLUESQ, STAN JAMES)
1pt ew DAVIS LOVE @ 22/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
72-HOLE MATCH BETS
11pts ADAM SCOTT TO BEAT DAVID TOMS @ 10/11(BETFAIR, LADBROKES, BETFRED, TOTE)
11pts CHAD CAMPBELL TO BEAT CHRIS DIMARCO @ 10/11 (BETFRED, VICTOR CHANDLER)
11pts TOM LEHMAN TO BEAT RORY SABBATINI @ 10/11 (LADBROKES)
6pts ZACH JOHNSON @ 10/11 TO BEAT RORY SABBATINI @ 10/11 (TOTE)
TOP 10 FINISH
3pts MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 10/1 (STAN JAMES)
3pts NICK O'HERN @ 8/1 (SKYBET, STAN JAMES)
2pts TOM LEHMAN @ 8/1 (STAN JAMES)
2pts ROBERT ALLENBY @ 5/1 (STAN JAMES)
2pts ZACH JOHNSON @ 6/1 (STAN JAMES)
2pts JERRY KELLY @ 8/1 (STAN JAMES)
SPREADS
SELL NICK O'HERN FINISHING POSITION 3pts @ 36
SELL ROBERT ALLENBY FINISHING POSITION 2pts @ 33
2006 STATS: (-95.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 12:25 AM
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