BMW and Deutsche Bank golf betting previews

And so it continues. Tiger Woods may have won his fourth event in a row at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at the weekend, but at least some weekend blips kept the event interesting as a spectacle and punting medium. This week he attempts No.5 and faces a field at the Deutsche Bank Championship significantly weaker than those he's beaten in the last fortnight. One might think 13/8 is a very reasonable proposition under the circumstances, but Firestone showed again that you usually get bigger in-running - though his odds only reached 7/2. This event starts a day later than usual on Friday, so lets first deal with the BMW International Open which starts in Europe on Thursday.

The BMW could be a pivotal event in the outcome of this year's Order of Merit. Paul Casey did his chances no harm at all with a lucrative high finish at Firestone, but David Howell still leads the way by just under 300,000 Euros. That's not as big a margin as it first appears, with several big-money events to come. In fact as well as Howell, Casey and Robert Karlsson, PADRAIG HARRINGTON, Henrik Stenson, Ernie Els and Colin Montgomerie could still come into this with a late-season flourish. Howell defends the title in Munich this week and would have a fine chance if back to his best, but his form has completely disappeared in recent weeks. I think he'll probably still need to earn at least another 400,000 euros, not easy when your best finish in seven starts is 35th place.

Casey must be full of confidence after a good weekend exchanging blows with the best, and has an outstanding chance of scoring in Germany. This wide-open course suits his massive hitting perfectly, as four consecutive top-7 finishes from 2001 - 2004 prove beyond doubt. Ignore last year's missed cut as his game was in crisis at the time. If we leave aside the lingering doubts over his ability to finish tournaments off, its very hard to see Paul out of the places here.

Harrington has endured a frustrating season, but again has the perfect conditions to make his mark now. Since a purple patch in the early summer when finishing in the top-6 four out of five weeks on both sides of the Atlantic,including the US Open, there's no doubt he has been disappointing. Pod is another who I think is seen to his best when there are few penalties off the tee. He has twice finished runner-up in this event, and has six top-20s from seven visits. Two solid rounds at the weekend at Firestone might be suitable preparation for a return to form back on the European Tour. Certainly his attractive odds justify a bet.

Provided he has no ill-effects from a virus that caused him to miss the final day at Firestone, I'm expecting another very big run from LEE WESTWOOD as he stakes his claim for a Ryder Cup place. A former winner at this Munich venue, Westwood has looked in very good nick recently - 4th at the K Club was followed by 2nd at the Deutsche Bank, and he even went well for a long way in the USPGA at Medinah. Surely the time has come for this serial winner to end a barren three year stretch.

There must also be a chance that many of the big guns will be winding down after a big fortnight in the States, leaving the way open for somebody like RAPHAEL JACQUELIN who has the advantage of coming into this fresh. There's nothing wrong with the Frenchman's recent figures of two top-10s from his last three starts, and he has shown plenty of liking for the course, finishing 3rd, 22nd and 9th on his last three visits. The only lingering question is Jacquelin's suspect temperament under pressure, but hopefully that long-awaited first win in 2005 will have calmed his nerves a bit.

Onto the Deutsche Bank Championship then, and Woods' bid for a five-timer. In 2003 and 2004, the first two runnings of the event, all evidence pointed to a big advantage to the big-hitters. The first two winners were ADAM SCOTT and Vijay Singh, and Scott finished runner-up on the second occasion. Tiger Woods, in nowhere near the imperious form of the past month, finished top-10 on both occasions. But last year a spanner was thrown in the works, with medium-hitting Olin Browne landing a huge-priced touch on behalf of the grateful bookies and Tiger out with the washing in 40th place. In his current mood, its hard to see any repeat of that and Singh and Scott once again provide the principal opposition. It will take a long time for me to completely write off Vijay as past his best, but there can be no doubting a serious decline in standards recently. Having missed out on the previous four though, I'm hardly likely to advise Woods now at these odds, and once again suggest betting in the "Without Woods" market whilst trading his price in-running.

Scott has looked an imminent winner lately and is strongly fancied to make the frame at least. Perhaps the best way to back him is in a widely available match bet against Singh, but I also think 13/2 is quite reasonable to beat everyone bar Woods. Following on from a fast finishing 3rd at the PGA, Scott went well for most of the week at Firestone - a course he's always struggled on. Back on one of his favourite tracks, I expect he'll take a lot of beating.

As I've said several times recently, CAMILIO VILLEGAS is very much one to keep an eye on, and this week's tough test could well bring the best out in him. Don't worry about building up losses on this guy, as he will reap rewards for us in the long-term. I see him as a challenger for Majors in just two years from now, and in the meantime expect him to rack up lots of high finishes on the suitable US courses. Having finished second here last year, we know JASON BOHN likes the track. And prior to his last two missed cuts, one on a respectable score the other in the USPGA, he was putting together a very consistent set of figures. At 50/1 he looks worth a small interest here without the favourite.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

BMW INTERNATIONAL

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 33/1 (HILLS, CORAL)
1pt ew RAPHAEL JACQUELIN @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP

BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS

5pts win ADAM SCOTT @ 13/2 (STAN JAMES, BET365, PADDY POWER)
1.5pts ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 50/1 (STAN JAMES, BET365, 66/1 WITH EXPEKT)
1pt ew JASON BOHN @ 50/1 (STAN JAMES, BET365)

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

2006 STATS: (-111.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

WGC Bridgestone Invitational Betting Preview

Before I get to the golf advice, I must give a quick mention to the bookmakers Paddy Power, who proved once again they truly are the best in the business as far as punters are concerned with their response to Sunday's cricketing fiasco. They decided to both pay out on an England win, and void all losing bets on Pakistan and the draw - a decision notably not repeated by most of their rivals. Without going into this too much, this was in my view the only reasonable approach to a terrible situation for gamblers on all sides. I'm quite sure that, had a flood of money come for England at massive odds during the tea interval there would have been a stewards enquiry into betting patterns and many would have hid behind the dubious palpable error rule. Certainly I would have expected that from William Hill, who used that excuse only days earlier to void snooker bets from their live in-running market because they had forgotten to update them.

Following another facile Major win at Medinah, his 12th in an unbelievable 9 years as a professional, Tiger Woods bids for his fourth consecutive tournament win at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club against a limited field, but one that includes all of the world's leading players. There will no doubt be a school of thought that Woods may suffer a reaction to winning and take this week less seriously, but don't bet on it. Tiger takes these lucrative WGC events as seriously as anyone, and Firestone suits him as well as pretty much any course in the States. His course record is predictably awesome. In 8 visits, he's won 4 and never finished worse than 5th. So with a 50% strike record and perfect recent form, 13/8 doesn't seem like such a bad price. In fact I expect him to win this easily, by several shots. However rather than taking these short odds now, I'll wait and see if he drifts at all in-running. At that price, it won't take very much.

Woods looks almost back to his absolute best, as he displayed when winning four consecutive Majors in 2000/2001. As usual all the critics were out in force after Medinah, blaming the opposition for nor giving Tiger a test on the final day. However while Luke Donald will undoubtably be very disappointed with his final round efforts in his first serious chance of winning a Major, blaming the opposition does Woods no justice. The reality is that he came within one shot of his own Major scoring record, just weeks after again threatening the same record in another uncontested Major victory. The truth is that on his day, he's simply too good for anyone alive and quite possibly getting better. Improvement would come as no surprise as the overwhelming majority of golfers don't peak until their thirties.

For once I called it right at the USPGA, at least in terms of which market to play. Though Luke Donald and Adam Scott ultimately fell short of winning the "Without Tiger" market and would have yielded slightly higher place returns in the main market, the last day would have been extremely dull without having those bets to cheer on. Once again, this is where our attention should lie. This event isn't as competitive as many, with several players never taking well to Firestone. Phil Mickelson used to do particularly well here until the course was toughened up. In any case, he looked some way below his best last week. Ernie Els has only two top-10s in his last eight visits, Retief Goosen one from four. Vijay Singh is relatively suited by Firestone's demands, but comes into this on the back of second consecutive missed cut in the Majors. Even Adam Scott, who looked a winner in waiting at Medinah, can't be recommended after three no-shows on the course.

With so many players unfancied, a process of elimination implies JIM FURYK is worth including at 12/1. Medinah was a disappointment for Furyk, but he wasn't too far away for a long time before fading on Sunday. I'm happy to ignore that as his previous efforts had been right out of the top drawer. The most consistent player of 2006, now ranked No.3 in the world, has always enjoyed the test of Firestone. Among four top-10s from seven visits, the lasting memory of Furyk on this course was losing a multi-hole play-off to an in-form Tiger. Something similar would probably be required to win this week, but less so to win the market without the favourite.

Its also worth taking a chance that LUKE DONALD will be unaffected by the disappointments of Sunday night. Even when it was all going wrong, there was little sign of any weaknesses in that fantastic long game, rather it was his short game that went to pieces. No less of a judge than Bernhard Langer reckons Luke is the best iron player in the world, which is a the essential requirement for Firestone. As he has been 16th and 6th on his previous visits, I'll be surprised if he's not there or thereabouts once again.

It may be a good time to look to the next generation of stars. Whether either of them will ever reach a level that will threaten Tiger's dominance is a matter for speculation, but there can be little doubt that TREVOR IMMELMAN and HENRIK STENSON show every sign of joining the elite ranks pretty soon. In Immelman's case, the secret is already out of the bag after his impressive win in the Western Open - just the latest in a series of high class performances against the best in the States. Had last week not been his first event after a break for the birth of his first child, Immelman would have come in for very careful consideration at Medinah. As it was, four solid rounds without ever getting into contention could prove the perfect warm-up. Nobody would doubt that the South African prospect has improved considerably recently, so 9th at Firestone in 2003 when still very novicey bodes well.

Stenson looks to have found his form again after a tricky summer, and could be set for a late charge at the Order of Merit. When the Swede finished 3rd at Sawgrass, after an extremely impressive and consistent run in Europe, everyone was tipping him for glory and his odds for the Masters were crazy at less than 40/1. But last week's efforts suggest he's overcome any reaction to that. Understandably, Stenson hit a poor round on Saturday when leading the event in the final two-ball, but otherwise did very little wrong in landing his best Major finish to date. As with Immelman, the clinching point is some positive previous form on the course. Opening with a 66, Stenson looked capable of springing a shock for a long way here last year, and can reasonably be expected to go well again.

Good Luck!

BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS

STAKING PLAN

3pts ew JIM FURYK @ 12/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, TOTE)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, BETFRED)
2pts ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 33/1 (BETFRED, PADDY POWER, SKYBET, STAN JAMES)
1pt ew HENRIK STENSON @ 50/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, STAN JAMES)

2006 STATS: (-107.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

USPGA Championship Betting Preview

The final Major of the year, the USPGA Championship, starts on Thursday from Medinah CC, Illinois. Always the least fashionable of the Majors, this one has tended to yield more shock winners than the other two - Jeff Sluman, John Daly, Rich Beem and Shaun Micheel spring to mind. This year in my view it represents the best chance yet for a trio of world-class golfers still aiming for their first Major.

Not so long ago, it was widely understood that there was a 'Big 5', that represented an elite band operating in a slightly higher stratosphere. Not any more. Since April 2005 when this sentiment was most regularly used, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have won five of the seven Majors contested to very much set up their own private dual. Moreover, the other three members of the five, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen have all struggled with form and fitness and Jim Furyk, now ranked No.4, probably represents the greatest immediate threat to the front two.

First a word about Tiger and Mickelson. When the PGA was last held here in 1999, Woods landed his second Major while Mickelson never got going. Mickelson hasn't really shown for a few months that he's quite in the form when winning this event last year, and is readily opposed but Tiger's chances are the subject of much debate. The great man is undoubtably in form, as facile victories in the Open Championship and at Warwick Hills on his last two outings testify. Having won fairly easily in 1999 on this course - Sergio Garcia's memorable late challenge withstanding - one might assume he is a shoe-in here again. But equally, for both of those recent wins Woods was able to avoid taking driver - his problem club - for most of the week. Medinah has been lengthened to new extremes so he has no such option here. And in the intervening 7 years, technology has come along that has narrowed the advantage he has on such courses. The truth is I'm at a loss as far as predicting Tiger this week, he could yet again destroy the event as a gambling spectacle as at Hoylake but still looks atrocious value at 9/4. The best strategy is to try and bet in markets that don't include him.

Furyk is the danger, as he is enjoying his best season to date. Top-10 here in 1999, Jim has finished no worse than 4th in his last four outings, including two Majors. Only Tiger bettered him at Warwick Hills last time, but I'm not greatly enamoured by the outright price. While first impressions of the length of the course suggest short-hitters like Furyk may be disadvantaged a detailed look at the 1999 result suggests otherwise. Though the front pair, Woods and Garcia, are among the longest hitters, extremely short-hitter Mike Weir led going into final round while Furyk, Jay Haas and Nick Price also made the top-10 so it seems greens in regulation - the pivotal stat for Majors - is the one to look at.

So my three for the USPGA are ADAM SCOTT, LUKE DONALD and TIM CLARK. All three definitely possess the ability to win a Major, but only Clark has a good record in recent ones. Scott in particular has underperformed in Majors. My view is the reason for that is an inexperienced short game that, at Augusta or on an Open course, is cruelly exposed. Similar comments apply to Donald, but Medinah should be more conventional than most. Scott's efforts when 8th at Hoylake suggests he's getting the hang of Majors, and I'm pleased to see he is coming in fresh and presumably well prepared. It seems the best attribute to own is the ability to consistently drive it long and straight. There are few better than Scott in this regard.

Like Furyk, the relatively short-hitting Donald could be disadvantaged here, but the evidence suggests otherwise. His world-class long-iron play more than compensates for a lack of length from the tee and as he monotonously hits fairways, bogey can be taken out of the equation on most holes on this tough course. In any case, some of Donald's best efforts have come on similarly long courses. As a PGA Tour rookie, arguably his best effort was top-15 at the monster Bethpage Black in the US Open back in 2002.

In terms of length, Clark is the middle of my three selections. The South African has shown several times in recent Majors just how suited he is to tough golf courses. Runner-up in this year's Masters, 3rd in the 2005 US Open and 3rd in the 2004 PGA, Clark looks a likely contender in all the US Majors these days. His ultra-accurate game looks perfect for Medinah.
The question is which market to play? 33/1, 40/1 and 80/1 respectively are available for my three selections, but I'd rather take Tiger Woods out of the equation. Paddy Power's 'without-Tiger' market offers 25/1 twice and 66/1 for the same players so I suggest thats the best route. If you're more inclined to take the outright market, there are some good offers around. Paddy Power offer a refund of losing win stakes should a European win, Tote do the same if Mickelson wins and Sean Graham offer a free £25 Ryder Cup bet if you stake £25 on the USPGA.

Others expected to go well this week are GEOFF OGILVY, MIKE WEIR and AARON OBERHOLSER. Ogilvy also has the perfect game for this set-up. If it wasn't for the fact he's already won a Major this year I'd be backing him for sure. However, the odds are now far closer to the correct mark and lets face it, unless you're name is Tiger you don't win two Majors in the same season. Weir emerged in the big-time when the event was last played at Medinah. As a rank outsider, he led going into the final day only to collapse with 80. He's not looked far off his Masters-winning best this year, so is also worth keeping an eye on, especially in the speciality markets. As for Oberholser, a reduced schedule this year has reaped dividends. He's been on the fringes in both previous US Majors and Sawgrass since winning at Pebble Beach so it stands to reason he'll go well again. In particular, he looks good value at 50/1 in the top-US without Tiger market.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS

3pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 25/1 (PADDY POWER)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 25/1 (PADDY POWER)
1.5pts ew TIM CLARK @ 66/1(PADDY POWER)

TOP US WITHOUT TIGER WOODS

1pt ew AARON OBERHOLSER (PADDY POWER)

MATCH BETS, 3-BALLS AND SPREADS

SUPPORT JIM FURYK
SUPPORT GEOFF OGILVY
SUPPORT MIKE WEIR
SUPPORT AARON OBERHOLSER
OPPOSE PHIL MICKELSON

2006 STATS: (-128.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Northern Ireland Open Snooker Preview

Halleluhah! After the depressing summer months, the snooker season is once again upon us with the Northern Ireland Classic starting tomorrow. Another pleasant surprise in the fact that this is now a ranking event with a full-sized field. Last year's event, won by Matthew Stevens, was a limited field invitational event characterised by the blatant lack of preparation and form by the top stars. I suspect the big names may once again be underprepared which could yield massive betting value.

Of course we're guessing about form at this early stage, but as in every event last year we've got a rather lop-sided draw to capitalise upon. Snooker is so wide open nowadays that the rankings increasingly mean very little. For instance, the second quarter contains three serious World Championship contenders in Ronnie O'Sullivan, Mark Williams and Matthew Stevens along with rising stars Ryan Day, Mark Allen and Barry Hawkins. I could envisage backing any of them at some stage in the year.

In contrast the top quarter looks very weak. Graeme Dott may be world champion but he remains a very rare winner and no more than a solid top-16 player. It will be interesting to see how the gutsy Scot copes with the added pressure and expectation this year. The man he beat at Sheffield, Peter Ebdon, is also in this part of the draw but rarely has started the season strongly. Like so many top-stars, he tends to only peak from December onwards as the bigger prizes await. Sheffield semi-finalist Marco Fu would be interesting if he could repeat that week's heroics, but again has rarely shown it in these type of events. The one who really stands out for me in this section is MARK SELBY who could just be ahead of the bookies. Selby is a classic example of the bias in the rankings towards the top-32. He's been a serious prospect for years, and even reached a ranking final back in 2003. But because he struggled in qualifiers, he's only just broken into the top-32 which gives him a real chance of stamping his mark on a tournament. He made it due to a fantastic win at Sheffield over last year's leading player, John Higgins. Selby was superb in that game, and lost nothing in his subsequent defeat to an in-form Williams. There are no such threats from this draw, and he has a straightforward opener against Tony Drago to build form and confidence. In the same section, whoever wins the first-round match between Joe Swail and Gerard Greene will be worth a serious look on home territory. But as that match is far from straightforward to predict, best to wait until we know who progresses.

As I said, the second quarter is a minefield, and the best strategy is to sit back and watch carnage ensue knowing only one player can reach the semis. It is worth adding though, that you'd have to be enjoying Class A drugs to consider a bet on Ronnie O'Sullivan. His will to win is always dubious, but I'll be surprised if he's bothered with a low-grade event like this. The third quarter looks between Higgins, Ding Junhui and Ken Doherty if the formbook is to be believed, but until we've seen them play I'm reserving judgement.

So the other value bet is in the final quarter. The player I have the highest hopes for this season is Aussie prodigy NEIL ROBERTSON. Since the slow demise of Stephen Hendry began, snooker has lacked a consistent, dominating player. However the standard is certainly average enough for someone to emerge and for me the most likely candidates are Robbo and Ding Junhui. I've already backed Robertson for next year's World Championship at 40/1, and 25/1 looks a nice price here bearing in mind a likely easy first round win. The ante-post bet is outstanding value in my view and very strongly recommended.

Should he make it that far, Robertson's last eight opponent will probably be one of Stephen Hendry, Stephen Lee, STUART BINGHAM or Ian McCulloch. The first two of those are well worth opposing in an event like this, and Bingham should beat David Roe easily enough in the first round. Last year, the Essex player started the year on fire and this player of considerable potential is worth a bet to do so again.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

3pts ew MARK SELBY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 25/1 (STAN JAMES)
1.5pts ew STUART BINGHAM @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

ANTE-POST

10pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 40/1 (LADBROKES)

Betting previews for KLM Dutch Open and The International

On the back of a really bad run of golf results, I couldn't be less enthusiastic about the week's events. In Europe, we have the Dutch Open played on a course that hasn't been used since 1990, while the US tournament is that annual punting minefield known as The International. The latter has attracted a world-class field, and rather than the usual strokeplay format is played under a stableford scoring system which can produce dramatic swings on the leaderboard, and has been known to produce completely unfathomable winners.

Aside Tiger Woods giving the false impression that golf betting is easy and dull, the last few weeks have produced two such unfathomable winners in Corey Pavin and Mark Warren. The Dutch Open has all the hallmarks of another shock result, if the favourite gets beaten. The course is short, and apparently not too dissimilar to the linksy course this event is usually played on at Hilversum. COLIN MONTGOMERIE is by far and away the class act in this field and 9/1 is seriously tempting. He's only got to stay broadly in the thick of it for those odds to shorten. Prior to missing the cut at the Open, he'd had seven solid weeks of form including that near-miss at Winged Foot. This grade is well below the level he usually competes on, and we've seen in the Far East in recent years that Monty still enjoys beating lesser players for less prestigious events. He also wouldn't be here, just a week before the USPGA, if he wasn't serious about winning.

Next best in the betting are Ryder Cup hopefuls Paul McGinley and Paul Broadhurst, but that sort of added pressure rarely produces tournament winners in my experience, and these two are hardly prolific anyway. So I'm skipping quite a few runners to go for a couple of big priced each-way bets. As we have no course form to go on, the key attributes here are fair recent form and a solid greens in regulation record. The two that I like are MARKUS BRIER and TOM WHITEHOUSE. Brier, a runaway winner in his native Austria earlier this season, has a very solid long game and is always a serious threat at the lower European level. As for Whitehouse, last weekend's 7th place was his third top-10 of a promising season.

To add to all the question marks at the International, punting is always harder the week before a Major with doubts surrounding the motivation of the big players. With Woods absent, there's every reason to think PHIL MICKELSON will want to make hay. He is better suited than anyone to this attacking format, holds the tournament scoring record and did run away with the Bellsouth Classic the week before his 2nd Masters title. No doubt he will be using this event to practice shots made for Medinah, but he's good enough to get away with that and so rates a saver at least.

I find it easier to justify backing Phil at shortish odds here because I really want to take on the course specialists, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen. An on-song Ernie would be favourite in an event he loves, but despite his Open third I'm still not convinced. Els managed to stay in contention during the last Major because he is one of the greatest scramblers ever, but I still thought his game looked out of sorts over that weekend. As for Goosen, the last couple of efforts have been an improvement but the putter still remains very cold. And surely in this birdie-fest, the putter is going to be very important. For the same reason, obviously Sergio Garcia must be overlooked.
With the format favouring attacking players and 5 points for every eagle, it stands to reason that the longer and more attacking players will prosper. One guy who fits that bill perfectly is PAUL CASEY. More importantly, Casey has form under this format. Not only did he finish 10th on his last event here, but this rising English star also won the ANZ Championship a few years back when that event was played under stableford scoring. Also ace putter LUCAS GLOVER should like this format, and after a return to form at the weekend, could be set for a strong run to finish a very promising season.

CAMILIO VILLEGAS gave us a decent run for our money at 150/1 last week, and though the odds are significantly shorter at 66/1 now, I'm sticking with the Colombian. This superb prospect has the length, the iron play and attacking game to prosper under these conditions. It won't be long before he's challenging for Majors, but for now I prefer his chances in events where birdies and eagles are rewarded most.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

KLM DUTCH OPEN

6pts win COLIN MONTGOMERIE @ 9/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MARKUS BRIER @ 66/1 (BET365, TOTE, HILLS)
1pt ew TOM WHITEHOUSE @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

THE INTERNATIONAL

4pts PHIL MICKELSON @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PAUL CASEY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LUCAS GLOVER @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 66/1 (BET365, BET DIRECT, TOTE, BETFRED)

2006 STATS: (-108.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Betting previews for Scandinavian Masters and Buick Open

The venue for this week's Scandinavian Masters has proved very lucrative for me in the past. Barseback is the type of course that strongly favours the best players from tee to green, and subsequently the top-10 is normally packed with the obvious candidates. The problem this year is the lack of world-class players, certainly nobody fits the bill as obviously as Colin Montgomerie, Adam Scott or Luke Donald, the last three Barseback winners.

The betting is inevitably dominated by Swedes. Despite having 5 wins between them this year, Robert Karlsson and Johan Edfors have to cede favouritism to Ryder Cup probables CARL PETTERSSON and HENRIK STENSON. If Karlsson can reproduce last week's golf in Germany, he'd be a match for anyone in the world and a shoe-in here but back to back winners are very rare unless your name is Tiger Woods. Pettersson though, looks perfectly primed to contend again this week. Forget last week's missed cut, that came straight off a top-ten finish at the Open. Twice a winner in the States in the last nine months, Pettersson's form is at a higher level than anyone else in the field. There's course form on offer too - he finished 6th here in 2003 when half the player of today.

Stenson has the greatest long-term potential of the home contingent, and must rate worthy of a saver. His form over the winter, culminating in a magnificent 3rd place on his Sawgrass debut, seemed to establish Stenson as a world-class player. The problem is that his form has been moderate at best since an April win in Asia. As Henrik was a very creditable runner-up to Donald in 2004 on a course that very clearly suits, I'd still expect him to be there or thereabouts.

Another player just perfect for Barseback is SOREN HANSEN. 9th place in 2001 is the best of a moderate record for the Dane at Barseback. This is strange as Soren has always hit a high percentage of greens in regulation. 2006 has probably been his most consistent to date, making his last nine cuts and finishing runner-up on consecutive weeks in June. His two most recent outings at Loch Lomond and Gut Kaden have yielded top-15 finishes in markedly stronger company so a repetition would put him right in the thick of it here.

The similarly named PETER HANSEN also looks a sound each-way investment. A winner in Portugal last year, Hansen is generally no more than a consistent top-30 man in Europe but he usually comes to life on the courses that suit his rock-solid long game. He tied with Stenson in distant 2nd to Luke Donald here two years ago and also finished 9th in 2001. And finally in Europe, JARMO SANDELIN is yet another Swede worth a punt. Jarmo has been in better form recently than for years. After finishing the weekend strongly, this six-time European Tour winner looks a very likely contender here.

I'm probably unique in being primarily interested in events in Sweden this week as Tiger Woods makes a swift return from another facile Major win at the Buick Championship. I must confess to being a bit depressed after Tiger's Open stroll - not due to any dislike of the great man, rather its effect on golf betting. I have to be very confident about his motivation before backing him to win at less than 3/1, while at the same time worrying that he will end each event as a contest by Sunday. At least in compensation there's always some fun to be had trading his price in-running. Woods certainly has a superb course record. In seven outings at Warwick Hills, Tiger has won once, been runner-up twice and has a worst finish of 11th. Clearly he's going to be in contention so should his price drift after a slow start, I'll probably back him then. But for now I can't take short-odds on someone who has still not proved to have overcome driving troubles.

Spicing things up further, we have the spectacle of VIJAY SINGH chasing a third consecutive Buick win and a fourth career win at Warwick Hills. This ultra-proud workaholic will be desperate to set the record straight after Hoylake and a very rare missed cut in a Major. Prior to the Open, he'd looked quite resurgent over the previous three weeks, winning the Barclays Classic and finishing top-6 in the other two events. I suspect the Open was an aberration - he's never been a great links player anyway - and find it very hard to see Vijay out of the top-10 this week.

When you look at the course record of JIM FURYK, it is confirmed that this course favours the best players. Though the odds seem short, all the big three are highly likely to be in contention on Sunday. 2003 Buick winner Furyk has finished top-10 in six of the last seven years, and only once out of the top-20 in nine visits. Considering his game is as good as ever, testified by three consecutive top-4s including two Majors and an all-time high world ranking of 5th place, its hard to leave Furyk out of calculations despite miserly odds of 10/1.

Looking at the rest of the field, the only other players who stand out on course form are Open runner-up CHRIS DIMARCO and US Open champ Geoff Ogilvy. Regular readers will hopefully remember my long advocacy of Ogilvy as a prospect at big odds, but I just can't bring myself to back him at a best quote of 20/1. He now has the reputation of a Major winner to defend. But Dimarco is still pretty reasonable at 28/1. The only negative for me is that his Open heroics came out of the blue after an awful run of form. After a magnificent match-winning effort at last year's Presidents Cup and an early 2006 win in Abu Dhabi I really expected Dimarco to do big things this year. I don't see why Hoylake shouldn't be the turning point, as Chris seeks to cement a good run of form prior to the Ryder Cup where he will be a pivotal player.

As I said the rest of the field make little appeal, with two exceptions. I'm giving yet another chance to ZACH JOHNSON to build on a growing reputation. Zach is another one I expect to play a key Ryder Cup role, is well overdue a second Tour win and finished 2nd on his course debut last year. An even better value alternative is CAMILIO VILLEGAS at 150/1. This outstanding prospect has gone off the boil slightly after an outstanding first half of the season. Nevertheless he seems to prosper on the best courses and is likely to be threatening leaderboards again before very long.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

SCANDINAVIAN MASTERS

4pts ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 14/1 (BETFRED, BLUESQ, PADDY POWER, HILLS)
4pts win HENRIK STENSON @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew SOREN HANSEN @ 28/1 (BET365, EXPEKT, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew PETER HANSON @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JARMO SANDELIN @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

BUICK OPEN

4pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 11/1 (BETFRED, SKYBET, STAN JAMES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
4pts win JIM FURYK @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 28/1 (BET365, BET DIRECT, TOTE, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 150/1 (STAN JAMES)

2006 STATS: (-72.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1