For several reasons, this week's Singapore Masters at Laguna National has consistently proved to be the one Asian event in which the Europeans have been completely dominant. One explanation may be that, as this is played at the tail-end of the Far East Swing, the Europeans have acclimatised and become used to the very different greens. Another may be the linksy type fairways that are as in keeping with Britain as they are with the Asian norm. While it usually pays to keep leading locals like Thongchai Jaidee and Jyoti Randhawa on side in this part of the world, none of the top Asians have any great record at the course.
Last year's event was a classic case in point, as Europeans filled 8 of the top 10 places. The class acts in the field, Colin Montgomerie and Thomas Bjorn, dominated affairs alongside eventual winner NICK DOUGHERTY. The only player on show worthy of mentioning in the same breath as that lot is Sweden's Niclas Fasth. Fasth played poorly on his sole visit so the main selection has to be the Englishman. That win last year was a breakthrough for Nick, who then went on to have a tremendously consistent summer in much higher company. As I've said before with bad timing, he is one of the rising stars in world golf and I expect at least one win in 2006. Two top-tens in the Middle East last month show good recent form, and this is the best chance he will have. 14/1 looks a rock-solid each-way bet.
I don't fancy Jaidee at all this week, who has never prospered at Laguna, and while Randhawa holds the course record, he has been very disappointing lately. The best Asian chance probably lies with promising Indian Shiv Kapur, but I prefer the chances of last week's runner-up ANDREW BUCKLE. Buckle is a former Australian amateur champion, and pulled off the impressive and rare feat of winning his first ever professional tournament in Queensland four years ago. A consistent contender on the Asian Tour, Buckle's recent form in much better company in the Middle East prior to a fine effort last weekend suggests he is quite a prospect. Certainly, I didn't think he lost anything in defeat as Simon Dyson hit a superb final round. Buckle's chance was lost with one disastrous quadruple bogey and otherwise played well. He should see that missed opportunity as a learning curve and I expect the good form to continue this week.
A player I've always thought capable of winning a run of the mill European event is Ireland's PETER LAWRIE. Since graduating from the Challenge Tour after a series of wins, Lawrie has been in contention several times and was voted rookie of the year. He hasn't looked too fazed by the pressure on those occasions, and like most Irish players is comfortable with linksy conditions. 5th last year, Peter looks a very fair bet at big odds to step up on that in a much weaker line up.
Lawrie's fellow Irishman Padraig Harrington is in the States this week to defend his Honda Classic title at Mirasol, Palm Beach, Florida. The Sunrise course can become extremely testing if the wind blows, though early forecasts suggest nothing too horrific. Either way, a top class short game is essential here as the greens are elevated and difficult to hold. It is also very much a thinking man's course, so the experienced players could possibly have an advantage not seen on the regular, straightforward target golf courses we see so often on the PGA Tour.
The chance of many of the market leaders is obvious, but for various reasons they make little betting appeal to me. David Toms is a worthy favourite after an impressive run of figures but by his own admission is struggling with his long game. Davis Love's chance would stand out on a course he finished runner-up two years ago, but this is his third week in a row and played 126 holes at the World Matchplay. He's talking a good game about his current fitness, but 14/1 under such circumstances on a player with notorious back problems doesn't interest me. Love's conquerer at La Costa, Geoff Ogilvy, would probably have been in the staking plan but is now half the price having entered the big league and back to back wins are rare anyway. Robert Allenby is another whose ongoing health worries deter me from a bet. As for Harrington, he could very well defend his title as he certainly possesses all the right attributes, but hasn't shown anywhere near enough in 2006 to merit a bet at less than 20/1.
So further down the betting, I've found a couple of old hands who might represent a bit of value on a course that should suit. JESPER PARNEVIK won this event on a different track five years ago before his game entered the doldrums but has shown much promise so far in 2006. Jesper has only missed one cut so far this year, finished second at the Bob Hope and tenth the following week at Torrey Pines. Ignore two midfield finishes on both previous visits here, as his game was all over the place at the time. I would be especially excited about the Swede's chances were the wind to blow, as he has proved consistently to be world class under those conditions.
Veteran BRAD FAXON showed he was still capable of winning at this level at the Buick Championship last August, and has started the season solidly enough without disturbing the judges. One of the finest putters and chippers around, Faxon is clearly suited to this week's demands as top ten finishes on both visits to the course demonstrate.
Finally at three figure odds, lets give NATHAN GREEN a chance to re-establish his early season promise. I've known about Green from following the Australasian Tour for years, where he has consistently performed well on the tougher golf courses. It was no surprise therefore to see this new graduate to the PGA Tour perform so well at tough Waialae and Torrey Pines with two top-5 finishes. It has to be accepted that on the second occasion he fell apart under pressure from Tiger, but he'd hardly be the first rookie to do the same and hopefully it will serve as a useful experience.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
SINGAPORE MASTERS
4pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ANDREW BUCKLE @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PETER LAWRIE @ 100/1 (LADBROKES)
HONDA CLASSIC
1pt ew JESPER PARNEVIK @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BRAD FAXON @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew NATHAN GREEN @ 125/1 (SPORTING ODDS, HILLS, PADDY POWER)
2006 STATS: (-68.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
Last year's event was a classic case in point, as Europeans filled 8 of the top 10 places. The class acts in the field, Colin Montgomerie and Thomas Bjorn, dominated affairs alongside eventual winner NICK DOUGHERTY. The only player on show worthy of mentioning in the same breath as that lot is Sweden's Niclas Fasth. Fasth played poorly on his sole visit so the main selection has to be the Englishman. That win last year was a breakthrough for Nick, who then went on to have a tremendously consistent summer in much higher company. As I've said before with bad timing, he is one of the rising stars in world golf and I expect at least one win in 2006. Two top-tens in the Middle East last month show good recent form, and this is the best chance he will have. 14/1 looks a rock-solid each-way bet.
I don't fancy Jaidee at all this week, who has never prospered at Laguna, and while Randhawa holds the course record, he has been very disappointing lately. The best Asian chance probably lies with promising Indian Shiv Kapur, but I prefer the chances of last week's runner-up ANDREW BUCKLE. Buckle is a former Australian amateur champion, and pulled off the impressive and rare feat of winning his first ever professional tournament in Queensland four years ago. A consistent contender on the Asian Tour, Buckle's recent form in much better company in the Middle East prior to a fine effort last weekend suggests he is quite a prospect. Certainly, I didn't think he lost anything in defeat as Simon Dyson hit a superb final round. Buckle's chance was lost with one disastrous quadruple bogey and otherwise played well. He should see that missed opportunity as a learning curve and I expect the good form to continue this week.
A player I've always thought capable of winning a run of the mill European event is Ireland's PETER LAWRIE. Since graduating from the Challenge Tour after a series of wins, Lawrie has been in contention several times and was voted rookie of the year. He hasn't looked too fazed by the pressure on those occasions, and like most Irish players is comfortable with linksy conditions. 5th last year, Peter looks a very fair bet at big odds to step up on that in a much weaker line up.
Lawrie's fellow Irishman Padraig Harrington is in the States this week to defend his Honda Classic title at Mirasol, Palm Beach, Florida. The Sunrise course can become extremely testing if the wind blows, though early forecasts suggest nothing too horrific. Either way, a top class short game is essential here as the greens are elevated and difficult to hold. It is also very much a thinking man's course, so the experienced players could possibly have an advantage not seen on the regular, straightforward target golf courses we see so often on the PGA Tour.
The chance of many of the market leaders is obvious, but for various reasons they make little betting appeal to me. David Toms is a worthy favourite after an impressive run of figures but by his own admission is struggling with his long game. Davis Love's chance would stand out on a course he finished runner-up two years ago, but this is his third week in a row and played 126 holes at the World Matchplay. He's talking a good game about his current fitness, but 14/1 under such circumstances on a player with notorious back problems doesn't interest me. Love's conquerer at La Costa, Geoff Ogilvy, would probably have been in the staking plan but is now half the price having entered the big league and back to back wins are rare anyway. Robert Allenby is another whose ongoing health worries deter me from a bet. As for Harrington, he could very well defend his title as he certainly possesses all the right attributes, but hasn't shown anywhere near enough in 2006 to merit a bet at less than 20/1.
So further down the betting, I've found a couple of old hands who might represent a bit of value on a course that should suit. JESPER PARNEVIK won this event on a different track five years ago before his game entered the doldrums but has shown much promise so far in 2006. Jesper has only missed one cut so far this year, finished second at the Bob Hope and tenth the following week at Torrey Pines. Ignore two midfield finishes on both previous visits here, as his game was all over the place at the time. I would be especially excited about the Swede's chances were the wind to blow, as he has proved consistently to be world class under those conditions.
Veteran BRAD FAXON showed he was still capable of winning at this level at the Buick Championship last August, and has started the season solidly enough without disturbing the judges. One of the finest putters and chippers around, Faxon is clearly suited to this week's demands as top ten finishes on both visits to the course demonstrate.
Finally at three figure odds, lets give NATHAN GREEN a chance to re-establish his early season promise. I've known about Green from following the Australasian Tour for years, where he has consistently performed well on the tougher golf courses. It was no surprise therefore to see this new graduate to the PGA Tour perform so well at tough Waialae and Torrey Pines with two top-5 finishes. It has to be accepted that on the second occasion he fell apart under pressure from Tiger, but he'd hardly be the first rookie to do the same and hopefully it will serve as a useful experience.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
SINGAPORE MASTERS
4pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ANDREW BUCKLE @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PETER LAWRIE @ 100/1 (LADBROKES)
HONDA CLASSIC
1pt ew JESPER PARNEVIK @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BRAD FAXON @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew NATHAN GREEN @ 125/1 (SPORTING ODDS, HILLS, PADDY POWER)
2006 STATS: (-68.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:33 AM
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