Cheltenham Day Two Advice
Well, yesterday wasn't exactly a dream start for myself and others who fancied the early favourites but don't let that put you off. I'm going for exactly the same bet of buying Racing Post Favourites as today's batch of jollies look very strong. Even in the wide open races, the RP fav looks by far the strongest of the market leaders.
The one good piece of news yesterday was Martin Pipe drawing a blank. Paul Nicholls certainly has an opportunity to sew up that match bet and with it the trainers' title today with big chances in every race. The two horses persistently touted as festival bankers both run today, and are both Nicholls trained, in Denman and KAUTO STAR. Both run in races where favourite backers have historically done well and its very hard to see either beaten. At the odds, preference is for the latter. The Queen Mother Champion Chase always seems to be dominated by the handful of superstar 2m chasers. In this field, only two fit that bill in the Nicholls favourite and legend Moscow Flyer. There's no reason for sentiment concerning the latter, who has looked well past his best this season. Perhaps there were valid excuses as some suggest, but lets not forget this horse won his first 19 completed chases in all sorts of conditions. This year's form suggests the inevitable decline of a 12yo. Alternatively, Kauto Star has put up the best performance this season by some way, with a mightly impressive Tingle Creek win over Ashleybrook. As for the rest, they just don't look in the same league or capable of the required level of improvement. According to Timeform's infamous ratings, Kauto Star is rated a massive 11lb ahead of the next best Fota Island, and possesses much more scope for improvement. Compare that margin to Denman, for example, who is 7lb ahead of the rest taking on all sorts of unexposed novices at only just above Evens.
The nap, though, has to be THE LISTENER in the 2.35. I can't see why this one isn't favourite based on his outstanding form this season. Time and again, we've seen that the credentials required for this race are jumping ability and stamina which this one has in abundance. I can only assume the inflated odds are a consequence of his unexpected fall at Lingfield last time. Take no notice - that mistake came completely out of the blue, the jockey was partly at fault and The Listener was in the process of delivering a beating to some decent rivals. I see this horse as potentially next year's Gold Cup winner, perhaps improving on the fortunes of top-class staying chaser stablemates Sir Rembrandt and Kingscliff. The RP fav in this one is Pipe's Commercial Flyer, the only one of the spread selections I don't particularly want to be with, but bearing in mind the stable's record with similar types he does come very much into the reckoning.
The Coral Cup at 4.00 is the usual cavalry charge and not a race for big hitters. Nevertheless, having studied it at length I reckon you can put a line through at least a third of the field, so with five places available at Paddy Power, Bluesq, Bet365, Stan James and Bet Direct there might be some value about. The one I like is IL DUCE at 25/1. His in-form trainer Alan King has two in the race, with Mughas the other. Mughas has a very solid chance having placed in the same race off a higher mark two years ago, so it may mean something that Robert Thornton has chosen Il Duce. Having only his fourth race of a light campaign, and as a horse with plenty of scope over this trip, I'm confident this one will run a big race. The RP fav here, the McCoy/McManus No Where To Hyde is the only one of the market leaders even in my calculations here.
Another race where the initial perception of lottery may be wrong is the Kim Muir Chase, for amateur riders at 4.40. Many of the runners here either won't stay, don't possess sufficient jumping prowess or are just badly out of form. Again the RP fav, Nicky Henderson's LIBERTHINE, stands out and looks an excelllent asset for the spread market. This was my biggest winner at Cheltenham last year, clearly the horse excels off a strong pace at Cheltenham. There are few shrewder stables in races of this type than Henderson, who reports the horse in great form and laid out for the race. As well as being the clear pick on the formbook, Liberthine could enjoy a jockey advantage over many of the others as his pilot Sam Waley-Cohen always rides and has proved himself more than competent.
The Bumper, at 5.40, has been dominated by Willie Mullins in the past so its no surprise to see him dominate the market, with what appears to be the first choice on jockey bookings Equus Maximus currently a hot favourite. However, I think the Mullins' factor might be a bit of an over-reaction as the two that stand out as the best prospects to me are KICKS FOR FREE and Wichita Linesman. The latter is ridden by questionable amateur JP Magnier so preference must be for the Nicholls runner, who has looked extremely impressive so far.
Good Luck!
BUY RACING POST FAVOURITES 5 @ 49
2.35 4pts win THE LISTENER (NAP)
3.15 8pts win KAUTO STAR
4.00 1pt ew IL DUCE
4.40 2pts win LIBERTHINE
5.15 3pts win KICKS FOR FREE
The one good piece of news yesterday was Martin Pipe drawing a blank. Paul Nicholls certainly has an opportunity to sew up that match bet and with it the trainers' title today with big chances in every race. The two horses persistently touted as festival bankers both run today, and are both Nicholls trained, in Denman and KAUTO STAR. Both run in races where favourite backers have historically done well and its very hard to see either beaten. At the odds, preference is for the latter. The Queen Mother Champion Chase always seems to be dominated by the handful of superstar 2m chasers. In this field, only two fit that bill in the Nicholls favourite and legend Moscow Flyer. There's no reason for sentiment concerning the latter, who has looked well past his best this season. Perhaps there were valid excuses as some suggest, but lets not forget this horse won his first 19 completed chases in all sorts of conditions. This year's form suggests the inevitable decline of a 12yo. Alternatively, Kauto Star has put up the best performance this season by some way, with a mightly impressive Tingle Creek win over Ashleybrook. As for the rest, they just don't look in the same league or capable of the required level of improvement. According to Timeform's infamous ratings, Kauto Star is rated a massive 11lb ahead of the next best Fota Island, and possesses much more scope for improvement. Compare that margin to Denman, for example, who is 7lb ahead of the rest taking on all sorts of unexposed novices at only just above Evens.
The nap, though, has to be THE LISTENER in the 2.35. I can't see why this one isn't favourite based on his outstanding form this season. Time and again, we've seen that the credentials required for this race are jumping ability and stamina which this one has in abundance. I can only assume the inflated odds are a consequence of his unexpected fall at Lingfield last time. Take no notice - that mistake came completely out of the blue, the jockey was partly at fault and The Listener was in the process of delivering a beating to some decent rivals. I see this horse as potentially next year's Gold Cup winner, perhaps improving on the fortunes of top-class staying chaser stablemates Sir Rembrandt and Kingscliff. The RP fav in this one is Pipe's Commercial Flyer, the only one of the spread selections I don't particularly want to be with, but bearing in mind the stable's record with similar types he does come very much into the reckoning.
The Coral Cup at 4.00 is the usual cavalry charge and not a race for big hitters. Nevertheless, having studied it at length I reckon you can put a line through at least a third of the field, so with five places available at Paddy Power, Bluesq, Bet365, Stan James and Bet Direct there might be some value about. The one I like is IL DUCE at 25/1. His in-form trainer Alan King has two in the race, with Mughas the other. Mughas has a very solid chance having placed in the same race off a higher mark two years ago, so it may mean something that Robert Thornton has chosen Il Duce. Having only his fourth race of a light campaign, and as a horse with plenty of scope over this trip, I'm confident this one will run a big race. The RP fav here, the McCoy/McManus No Where To Hyde is the only one of the market leaders even in my calculations here.
Another race where the initial perception of lottery may be wrong is the Kim Muir Chase, for amateur riders at 4.40. Many of the runners here either won't stay, don't possess sufficient jumping prowess or are just badly out of form. Again the RP fav, Nicky Henderson's LIBERTHINE, stands out and looks an excelllent asset for the spread market. This was my biggest winner at Cheltenham last year, clearly the horse excels off a strong pace at Cheltenham. There are few shrewder stables in races of this type than Henderson, who reports the horse in great form and laid out for the race. As well as being the clear pick on the formbook, Liberthine could enjoy a jockey advantage over many of the others as his pilot Sam Waley-Cohen always rides and has proved himself more than competent.
The Bumper, at 5.40, has been dominated by Willie Mullins in the past so its no surprise to see him dominate the market, with what appears to be the first choice on jockey bookings Equus Maximus currently a hot favourite. However, I think the Mullins' factor might be a bit of an over-reaction as the two that stand out as the best prospects to me are KICKS FOR FREE and Wichita Linesman. The latter is ridden by questionable amateur JP Magnier so preference must be for the Nicholls runner, who has looked extremely impressive so far.
Good Luck!
BUY RACING POST FAVOURITES 5 @ 49
2.35 4pts win THE LISTENER (NAP)
3.15 8pts win KAUTO STAR
4.00 1pt ew IL DUCE
4.40 2pts win LIBERTHINE
5.15 3pts win KICKS FOR FREE
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:49 AM
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