Garcia the one to beat in Euro finale

After recent winners like Wes Short and Lucas Glover, punters could be forgiven for losing faith with pre-tournament golf betting, but with both of this week's tournaments being staged at venues with a history of favouring the market leaders, I have a feeling normal service will be resumed. The 2005 European Tour reaches its conclusion with the megabucks Volvo Masters at its regular venue, Valderrama in Spain. This is last chance saloon for my Order of Merit tip MICHAEL CAMPBELL who must finish at least 4th to have a chance of catching Colin Montgomerie. I feel I must allow myself a minor moan about this bet as Campbell has done us proud and I was right that his main rival Retief Goosen was worth laying as he wouldn't take the prize seriously. If there were any justice in the betting world, we would now be celebrating as the Goose fails to bother to turn up for the deciding event but the astonishing and completely unpredictable return to brilliance of seven times OOM winner Monty has propelled the moody Scot past the Kiwi wonder! Lets just hope his highly controversial Indonesian prize money is not all that separates the two come Sunday night.

Nevertheless, I have a suspicion that justice may yet prevail and Campbell will finish his finest season ever with another big money triumph. Valderrama is a very difficult golf course that drives many to distraction. Course form is more important here than most, as is accuracy from tee to green. The US Open champ has now proved beyond doubt that he is capable of truly world class golf under such conditions and has shown a liking for Valderrama in the past. Ignore his catastrophic performance at last year's event as his game was all over the place at the time. On his previous two visits, Michael finished 7th and 9th in a more competitive Amex field in 2000.

The market revolves around Spanish enigma SERGIO GARCIA, who is very much the player to beat. He is the best player in the field on world rankings and status, has never finished out of the top-7 here, has finished top 3 in three of his last four performances and has home support. It is inconceivable that Sergio will go through his career without winning at Valderrama, and only failed last year by missing a very short birdie putt on the last. Putting remains the only thing keeping Garcia from giving Tiger Woods a regular run for his money and, frankly, he looked awful with the short stick in Mallorca last week. Obviously this is a deterrant to piling in but it is also important to remember that the greens are so hard on this course that everybody struggles, minimising the usual disadvantages faced by a poor putter. His chance is so obvious that I can't leave him out of the staking plan.

If there is an obvious rival for Europe's best player this season, DAVID HOWELL would have as good a claim as anyone. Howell has emerged as a world-class player in 2005 and deserves a big win to round the season off. Seven top-6 finishes from his last eleven starts make tremendous reading, with a gutsy win in Germany finally ridding him of the dreaded bottler tag. Considering the fact that he proved last year that he can play Valderrama well with a strong finish to make the top 5, Howell again looks a rock-solid value each-way bet.

For my final European selection, once again I shall take a chance on my nemesis LEE WESTWOOD. I've lost count of how much has been lost backing Westwood in the past year but I've got to stand by him as he will surely win again, soon, and probably more than once. On many occasions, often in world class company in the States, Lee has looked every inch a world class player again but strangely he keeps ruining his chance with one really poor round. His time is bound to come again soon and Valderrama is one place he will be very confident about. If you take away two efforts in 2002 and 2003 when his game was in a shocking state, Westwood's last four results here have been 7th, 2nd, 4th and 2nd.

Match and spread bets are more attractive than usual this week as there is no halfway cut which ensures we get four full rounds of competition, allowing for a poor start. I strongly fancy BRADLEY DREDGE will go well here as he has in the past. Bradley's barely had a poor tournament all summer and generally makes appeal in such markets as opposed to the win market. Alternatively three players well worth opposing are PADRAIG HARRINGTON, MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ and PAUL MCGINLEY. Pod has never liked Valderrama and is expected to struggle unless his long game dramatically improves on recent efforts. One of the finest performances of Jimenez's distinguished career came here when losing a play-off to Tiger Woods back in 1999, yet surprisingly he's done absolutely nothing on this course in the five years since and hasn't looked entirely convincing of late. In five visits to Valderrama, McGinley has yet to make the top 30, a poor figure in such limited fields, so I see no reason to expect a drastic turnaround.

Huge priced winners like Glover and Short prove the phenomenal strength in depth on the other side of the Atlantic and I am generally loathe to back favourites in the US but I must make an exception this week. The last two runnings at Westin Innesbrook have been dominated by VIJAY SINGH and RETIEF GOOSEN yet both look well overpriced. Goosen in particular seems a big price here at 14/1 considering that he's already won on his course debut in 2003. His odds seem an over-reaction to a recent injury and an uninspired return last week. I'm happy to ignore last week's effort and if the injury was still bothering him surely the Goose wouldn't be playing a run of the mill tournament like this. Looking at the bare facts, he has won three of his last six strokeplay starts and just a month ago, Retief looked the hottest player on the planet at the Presidents Cup. A final and decisive reason for siding with the quiet South African is an awesome record for winning tournaments at this time of the year, when plenty of others have had enough.

As for Singh, last year he led the field a merry dance here with a facile 5 shot win and the World No 2 also finished runner-up in 2003. After a few disappointing results culminating in last week's shock missed cut, Vijay seems out of favour but this relentless competitor will be desperate to bounce back and the fact that this week's event will be far less of a putting contest is very much in his favour. Prior to last week's blip, seven of his previous eight starts had yielded a top-10 finish despite being below his best while five of his last seven visits to Florida have yielded a top-3 finish! Like Goosen, the stats speak for themselves.

At this time of the year, its always useful to keep an eye out for players chasing a place in the top 30 on the US Money List which qualifies them for the lucrative forthcoming Tour Championship. In 37th place at present and in need of a big week is KJ CHOI. KJ did us a massive favour on his penultimate start when obliging at 40/1 and he looks to have found his form just in time. Choi is always at his best when faced with bentgrass greens and a course that particularly rewards strong iron play. The Korean relished such conditions when winning this tournament 3 years ago and a similar combination sparked his recent win at Greensboro. Interestingly, he avoided a potential earner last week and so will arrive fresh and prepared for one of his best opportunities of the year.

Finally, for a change I also recommend doubling up the four obvious selections each side of the Atlantic. Garcia, Howell, Singh and Goosen all look rock-solid contenders and highly likely to at least get places. A place double will at least cover our stake while two winners would be very lucrative!

Good Luck!

VOLVO MASTERS

4pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 7/1 (UKBETTING, LADBROKES, TOTE)
2pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (HILLS, SKYBET, BETDIRECT)
1.5pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS

SUPPORT BRADLEY DREDGE
OPPOSE PADRAIG HARRINGTON
OPPOSE MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ
OPPOSE PAUL MCGINLEY

CHRYSLER CHAMPIONSHIP

3pts win RETIEF GOOSEN @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew KJ CHOI @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

4 X 1pt ew doubles GARCIA/HOWELL @ SINGH/GOOSEN

2005 STATISTICS (-7pts)

Garcia the one to beat in Euro finale

After recent winners like Wes Short and Lucas Glover, punters could be forgiven for losing faith with pre-tournament golf betting, but with both of this week's tournaments being staged at venues with a history of favouring the market leaders, I have a feeling normal service will be resumed. The 2005 European Tour reaches its conclusion with the megabucks Volvo Masters at its regular venue, Valderrama in Spain. This is last chance saloon for my Order of Merit tip MICHAEL CAMPBELL who must finish at least 4th to have a chance of catching Colin Montgomerie. I feel I must allow myself a minor moan about this bet as Campbell has done us proud and I was right that his main rival Retief Goosen was worth laying as he wouldn't take the prize seriously. If there were any justice in the betting world, we would now be celebrating as the Goose fails to bother to turn up for the deciding event but the astonishing and completely unpredictable return to brilliance of seven times OOM winner Monty has propelled the moody Scot past the Kiwi wonder! Lets just hope his highly controversial Indonesian prize money is not all that separates the two come Sunday night.

Nevertheless, I have a suspicion that justice may yet prevail and Campbell will finish his finest season ever with another big money triumph. Valderrama is a very difficult golf course that drives many to distraction. Course form is more important here than most, as is accuracy from tee to green. The US Open champ has now proved beyond doubt that he is capable of truly world class golf under such conditions and has shown a liking for Valderrama in the past. Ignore his catastrophic performance at last year's event as his game was all over the place at the time. On his previous two visits, Michael finished 7th and 9th in a more competitive Amex field in 2000.

The market revolves around Spanish enigma SERGIO GARCIA, who is very much the player to beat. He is the best player in the field on world rankings and status, has never finished out of the top-7 here, has finished top 3 in three of his last four performances and has home support. It is inconceivable that Sergio will go through his career without winning at Valderrama, and only failed last year by missing a very short birdie putt on the last. Putting remains the only thing keeping Garcia from giving Tiger Woods a regular run for his money and, frankly, he looked awful with the short stick in Mallorca last week. Obviously this is a deterrant to piling in but it is also important to remember that the greens are so hard on this course that everybody struggles, minimising the usual disadvantages faced by a poor putter. His chance is so obvious that I can't leave him out of the staking plan.

If there is an obvious rival for Europe's best player this season, DAVID HOWELL would have as good a claim as anyone. Howell has emerged as a world-class player in 2005 and deserves a big win to round the season off. Seven top-6 finishes from his last eleven starts make tremendous reading, with a gutsy win in Germany finally ridding him of the dreaded bottler tag. Considering the fact that he proved last year that he can play Valderrama well with a strong finish to make the top 5, Howell again looks a rock-solid value each-way bet.

For my final European selection, once again I shall take a chance on my nemesis LEE WESTWOOD. I've lost count of how much has been lost backing Westwood in the past year but I've got to stand by him as he will surely win again, soon, and probably more than once. On many occasions, often in world class company in the States, Lee has looked every inch a world class player again but strangely he keeps ruining his chance with one really poor round. His time is bound to come again soon and Valderrama is one place he will be very confident about. If you take away two efforts in 2002 and 2003 when his game was in a shocking state, Westwood's last four results here have been 7th, 2nd, 4th and 2nd.

Match and spread bets are more attractive than usual this week as there is no halfway cut which ensures we get four full rounds of competition, allowing for a poor start. I strongly fancy BRADLEY DREDGE will go well here as he has in the past. Bradley's barely had a poor tournament all summer and generally makes appeal in such markets as opposed to the win market. Alternatively three players well worth opposing are PADRAIG HARRINGTON, MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ and PAUL MCGINLEY. Pod has never liked Valderrama and is expected to struggle unless his long game dramatically improves on recent efforts. One of the finest performances of Jimenez's distinguished career came here when losing a play-off to Tiger Woods back in 1999, yet surprisingly he's done absolutely nothing on this course in the five years since and hasn't looked entirely convincing of late. In five visits to Valderrama, McGinley has yet to make the top 30, a poor figure in such limited fields, so I see no reason to expect a drastic turnaround.

Huge priced winners like Glover and Short prove the phenomenal strength in depth on the other side of the Atlantic and I am generally loathe to back favourites in the US but I must make an exception this week. The last two runnings at Westin Innesbrook have been dominated by VIJAY SINGH and RETIEF GOOSEN yet both look well overpriced. Goosen in particular seems a big price here at 14/1 considering that he's already won on his course debut in 2003. His odds seem an over-reaction to a recent injury and an uninspired return last week. I'm happy to ignore last week's effort and if the injury was still bothering him surely the Goose wouldn't be playing a run of the mill tournament like this. Looking at the bare facts, he has won three of his last six strokeplay starts and just a month ago, Retief looked the hottest player on the planet at the Presidents Cup. A final and decisive reason for siding with the quiet South African is an awesome record for winning tournaments at this time of the year, when plenty of others have had enough.

As for Singh, last year he led the field a merry dance here with a facile 5 shot win and the World No 2 also finished runner-up in 2003. After a few disappointing results culminating in last week's shock missed cut, Vijay seems out of favour but this relentless competitor will be desperate to bounce back and the fact that this week's event will be far less of a putting contest is very much in his favour. Prior to last week's blip, seven of his previous eight starts had yielded a top-10 finish despite being below his best while five of his last seven visits to Florida have yielded a top-3 finish! Like Goosen, the stats speak for themselves.

At this time of the year, its always useful to keep an eye out for players chasing a place in the top 30 on the US Money List which qualifies them for the lucrative forthcoming Tour Championship. In 37th place at present and in need of a big week is KJ CHOI. KJ did us a massive favour on his penultimate start when obliging at 40/1 and he looks to have found his form just in time. Choi is always at his best when faced with bentgrass greens and a course that particularly rewards strong iron play. The Korean relished such conditions when winning this tournament 3 years ago and a similar combination sparked his recent win at Greensboro. Interestingly, he avoided a potential earner last week and so will arrive fresh and prepared for one of his best opportunities of the year.

Finally, for a change I also recommend doubling up the four obvious selections each side of the Atlantic. Garcia, Howell, Singh and Goosen all look rock-solid contenders and highly likely to at least get places. A place double will at least cover our stake while two winners would be very lucrative!

Good Luck!

VOLVO MASTERS

4pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 7/1 (UKBETTING, LADBROKES, TOTE)
2pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (HILLS, SKYBET, BETDIRECT)
1.5pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS

SUPPORT BRADLEY DREDGE
OPPOSE PADRAIG HARRINGTON
OPPOSE MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ
OPPOSE PAUL MCGINLEY

CHRYSLER CHAMPIONSHIP

3pts win RETIEF GOOSEN @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew KJ CHOI @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

4 X 1pt ew doubles GARCIA/HOWELL @ SINGH/GOOSEN

2005 STATISTICS (-7pts)

INTERESTING TIMES AHEAD

Working on the dangerous assumption that David Cameron will be the new Conservative leader we could be in for a truly fascinating spell in British politics. I say the assumption is dangerous because, though the contest has been a profitable one, I would much rather see Dr Liam Fox emerge from nowhere to lead the party further into oblivion and improve my bank account in the process. But dream scenarios aside, nobody can be quite sure exactly what to expect over the next four years.

The potential pitfalls of choosing a man who has only been in Parliament for four years and has never had to take a tough political decision on the basis of one impressive but vacuous speech and a slick campaign are obvious. Many within the New Labour hierachy will be relieved that they won't be up against the popular Ken Clarke or down to earth hardman David Davis. In those four years in Parliament, Cameron's only front bench post has been shadowing Education Secretary Ruth Kelly. Now Kelly does have an element of bureaucratic competance about her, but great orator she ain't and many shrewd observers guessed that Michael Howard had given his protege the job as a great opportunity to look good and build up a leadership profile. Yet despite media uproar over A-Levels, school dinners and failing city academies, the nicest thing you could say about Cameron's performance has been that he has been anonymous. Blair and Brown have eaten bigger beasts for breakfast.

Prime Minister's Questions should make for interesting if slightly surreal viewing. Tony Blair versus Tony Blair Mark II. Alternatively of course, the younger man could instantly give the Tories a bounce in the polls and quicken Blair's long overdue exit. Then the media's latest darling will at least have the youth advantage over dour Gordon Brown. And does performance in Parliament matter anyway? The Tory backbench tribes warm to combative leaders like William Hague and Michael Howard but there's little to suggest it does anything more for the electorate than re-inforce their distaste for macho adversarial politics. Cameron's greatest strength is his conversational style which seems very much in tune with the modern electorate - particularly critical swing female voters who have abandoned the Tories since 1992 as the infamous Newsnight focus group experiment showed starkly. His comments on last week's Question Time, "If the government do something I agree with, its right that I should say so. People are fed up with punch and judy politics" drew loud applause and shows an understanding gained from his previous job at Carlton TV that some of his older colleagues could learn from.

The crucial question here is whether his colleagues in Parliament can embrace this new style. My suspicion is that, with all the hype that surrounds Cameron now, the Tories will get that instant boost in the polls when he takes over. This should at least keep the critics at bay for that early honeymoon period. But ultimately, there will need to be some substance as well as style and this will be the toughest hurdle to clear. If the media briefings from Cameron's team are to be believed, the new leadership will dramatically overhaul the party's focus. There will be much less on immigration, crime and Europe and more on public services, social exclusion and even global poverty. According to a journalist one would assume to have close links to the Notting Hill Set, Andrew Pierce of The Times, Cameron would reject the agenda of the Daily Mail, even if cost the party up to 7% of its vote in the interim as the prize of the soul of the party was worth more. That's a very laudable goal but smacks of naivety to me. The Mail sells 2.5 million copies for a reason. There has always been and always will be a significant proportion of Britons who agree with their reactionary agenda. It is their unwavering support that has kept the party in business during the darkest days of the past 10 years.

I vividly recall a youthful William Hague inheriting the leadership, dressing in baseball caps at the Notting Hill Carnival, supporting gay marriage and defying the party moralists with the shocking stance of sharing a room with his fiance at the party conference. Within a couple of years he realised such wanton liberalism was destabilising his own position and Hague soon reverted to his 'Skinhead Bill' image, jumping on every bandwagon from the free Tony Martin campaign to backing the fuel protesters. When he inevitably slid to another crushing defeat in 2001, the modernisers and most media pundits blamed the latter strategy but it is also quite possible that it wasn't the issues that lost him support, but the fact that he went about it in such a shamelessly opportunistic fashion. A similar argument can be made for Howard's demise. It wasn't that the public didn't sympathise with Tory positions - polls show they were the favoured party on crime, immigration and Europe - but that they just didn't believe anything uttered by a politician like Howard with a long history of opportunism and insincerity.

And some of the policies advocated by Cameron's team are far more controversial. He has advocated a UN-led process of legalisation and regulation of the global drugs industry. He supports desperately unpopular measures like tuition fees and road pricing. Personally, I applaud him for all three stances as they are based on the sort of pragmatic thinking that I want from politicians but I wonder whether public opinion will respond to such refreshing rhetoric. The genius of Tony Blair and New Labour has been to jump as far behind public opinion as the circumstances will allow while still managing to avoid looking too cynical. Witness the way Blair has snatched the unreal 'Respect' agenda as his own, surely having read the results of focus groups during the 2005 election campaign. I am absolutely certain that the New Labour spin machine has carefully studied every one of Cameron's remarks and expect him to be swiftly labelled as 'soft on drugs' while the government happily pursues all the policies that they know Cameron agrees with so as to eliminate lines of attack. We could even be in the unchartered territory of the Tories opposing Labour from the Left!

On the other hand though, New Labour are deeply unpopular. They managed only 35% of the vote last time. In four years, with the prospect of economic gloom on the horizon and a Labour legacy that once we move beyond the early achievements of the minimum wage and the Northern Ireland peace process looks rather threadbare, Cameron may be left facing the political equivalent of an open goal. All that may be required to blow away their shallow support would be an elimination of the negative traits associated with the Conservative Party. As the author of the content-lite 2005 manifesto, Cameron has shown he is quite happy to use populist slogans that chime with public opinion too.

Equally, the Lib Dems have prospered for the last decade by stealing the votes of moderate, small 'c' Conservatives, exactly the type of voter Cameron looks capable of luring back to the fold. Ultimately, we need to look at the electoral map to see the potential effects. There are a few dozen supermarginals now where a revived Tory party, that has now learnt the art of targetting, should mop up - most notably in Kent and the East Midlands. If they win all of these and snap up a maximum of 20 seats from the Lib Dems then, with a boost of another 20 or so from redrawn boundaries, the Tory tally could rise to about 270. However, this is still fifty odd short of an overall majority and it becomes very tricky to identify where these extra 50 are to come from. It is here that the question of image could backfire. Choosing a posh, liberal modernising young leader should work wonders in winning back some of the lost AB voters, but will it help in places like Cleethorpes and Brigg, let alone a seat like Hartlepool where once the Tories could contend but now they finish an embarrassing fourth in by-elections? It is perfectly feasible that the next election yields an utterly indecisive result that ushers in Charles Kennedy's vision of three party politics. To repeat the title of this article, these are very interesting times ahead.

Take on Tiger and co in Disney putting contest

With the European Tour staying in Spain this week for the Mallorca Classic, Sergio Garcia makes a rare appearance this side of the Atlantic to defend his title and is a clear 4/1 favourite to do so. There a few bigger fans of Sergio than me and last year I was left to regret ignoring him purely because of the odds but I'm going to do so again for two reasons. Firstly, the field is considerably stronger than last year and secondly, though Sergio retains a long game that is in my opinion probably the best in the world, his putting is nothing short of atrocious and from what I've seen getting worse. Fellow Spaniards Miguel Angel Jiminez and Jose Maria Olazabal also hold big chances here but again make little appeal at the odds on offer. Jiminez won here on his last visit but just hasn't looked at his best since winning in Wales earlier in the summer. Olly holds a more obvious chance and it would be typical if he were to win this week after I've backed him so many times this year but he's not exactly outstanding value at a best priced 12/1.

Accuracy is the name of the game on this short track so I'm going for a trio of players whose long game is in peak form to upset the home contingent. Firstly, PAUL BROADHURST stands out at 33/1 despite last week's surprise missed cut. A winner in Portugal earlier in the year, 2005 has seen a resurgence in form for this English veteran. Prior to last week, Broady had been in fine form with three consecutive top-16 finishes in much more competitive fields than this. This course takes some knowing so the fact he's finished in 5th and 7th in the last two years bodes well, as does his penchance for windy conditions which can be expected. Its very hard to see Paul out of the top-15 here so as well as backing him in the outright market, he looks a must for spread bets.

Another player whose recent stats for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation make very promising reading is MAARTEN LAFEBER, who looks overpriced at 50/1. Maarten has had another consistent year without winning despite going close in Scotland and his native Holland. On his sole visit to Pula in 2003, he made a very solid start before finishing tenth and has almost certainly improved since then. If he can retain his recent accuracy from the tee, again it seems highly unlikely that Lafeber will be too far away on Sunday.

For my final selection in Spain, I'm going to have a small punt on STEPHEN O'HARA at the huge odds of 150/1. The former Walker Cup star remains a player of fair potential who seems to struggle for consistency. Despite some disappointing efforts lately, there have been several decent finishes this year with four top-10 finishes and his recent long game stats are outstanding. The other factor that brings the Scot into contention here is that he is another player who often prospers in wet and windy conditions.

In the States, we've got yet another pro-am with the Funai Classic at the Walt Disney resort in Florida. As with last week, there is every chance of another huge-priced unfathomable winner despite the presence of dual champion Tiger Woods and fellow superstars Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen. Vijay makes no appeal at all on his 2005 putting form while Tiger's long game is clearly not in the sort of peak form that would justify a bet at 5/2. Goosen was nothing short of outstanding recently in Europe and in the Presidents Cup and is worth a second look at twice Vijay's odds but in a putting contest as wide open as this, I think its better to go for bigger prices.

One player who definitely owes me a few quid is GEOFF OGILVY, who I must have backed twenty times to win his first PGA tournament before missing out on his triumph at the Chrysler Classic of Tucson. This talented Aussie has been playing eye-catchingly consistent golf in the States for the last couple of years, not least with top 10 finishes here over the past couple of years, and has progressed further this year with that victory and 5th place at the Open. He had a winning opportunity going into the final round of Sunday's pro-am and looks set to be there or thereabouts again.

I have absolutely no explanation for the huge price of 125/1 available for JOEY SINDELAR. Though this veteran doesn't immediately stand out as an obvious winner against Tiger and co, he is exactly the kind of consistent, accurate player who prospers on such easy tracks. Joey was 4th here last year, his fourth top-20 finish in the last six runnings of this event. And more to the point, this has been his best year for ages, with three top-10s and five top-20s from his last eight starts. Again, Joey looks a very obvious player to side with in spread markets too.

I'm also going for two of the best prospects in the US this week. As I said last week, we have just got to stick with the mightily impressive JASON GORE while he remains backable at big odds. A multiple winner on the Nationwide Tour, Gore has won an army of admirers with his bold style of play at the US Open and in Pennsylvania when winning his first PGA event last month. At the weekend, I got excited about another bumper pay day a couple of times as Jason surged on to the leaderboard only to see him throw away his chance with some reckless disaster holes. Nevertheless, this birdie machine is capable of demolishing these easy pro-am courses.

Finally, VAUGHAN TAYLOR looks to have a decent chance of landing his second win of the year. I wouldn't put Taylor in quite the same class as Gore as far as long term potential is concerned, but make no mistake he is an excellent player coming on leaps and bounds. Since running away with the Reno Tahoe Open for his maiden triumph, he has followed up with five solid efforts including a fine third in top company at the Deutsche Bank Championship. Back on a course where he finished an impressive tenth on his course debut, Vaughan could well go close considering his improvement in the interim.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

MALLORCA CLASSIC

3pts ew PAUL BROADHURST @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MAARTEN LAFEBER @ 50/1 (HILLS, TOTE)
0.5pts ew STEPHEN O'HARA @ 150/1 (HILLS, SKYBET, LADBROKES)

FUNAI CLASSIC

1pt ew GEOFF OGILVY @ 50/1 (VCBET, BET DIRECT, BETFRED)
1pt ew JOEY SINDELAR @ 125/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BETFRED)
1pt ew JASON GORE @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew VAUGHAN TAYLOR @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

Stick with Gore while he's still 50/1

The Madrid Open has developed a reputation in recent years as a tournament for outsiders and there is every reason to believe that trend will continue. There are only four world class players who have bothered to make the long trip back from South Africa and I have serious doubts about three of them.

After two tremendous weeks, Colin Montgomerie seeks to extend his Order of Merit lead in a tournament that he has only recently added to his schedule. Some might take that as a tip but I really can't see 42 year-old Monty managing to produce three weeks in a row with two of them interrupted by jetlag. Without taking anything away from his recent successes, I just don't believe he can produce it as consistently as at his peak so Colin must rate a good lay at less than 8/1.

Next in the betting is Darren Clarke, who has a decent record at Club De Campo but such a bad career win ratio that single figure odds make no appeal whatsoever, especially bearing in mind his stop-start season as his wife's illness has distracted his attention. Miguel Angel Jiminez has never done much here despite generally performing on home soil, so almost by process of elimination JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL looks the obvious main selection.

Spanish legend Olly must rate the unluckiest player not to win in 2005 after a series of fine efforts either side of the Atlantic but he has a good chance of finally hitting the jackpot this week. Last time out in Europe he finished runner-up and his final round at the weekend in San Francisco was his best of the week. With home support I'm sure he'll be busting a gut to win this event and he looks the one to beat.

I'm also prepared to give STEVE WEBSTER one last chance in 2005. After waiting what seemed like an eternity to land his first professional victory, this talented player was widely tipped to finally fulfil his considerable potential. Despite a few good efforts since, I think its fair to say we're still waiting. I vividly recall a previous visit to Club De Campo in 2001 though, when Steve put up what at the time was his best career effort when only being denied by Retief Goosen in a play-off so lets see if positive associations do the trick here.

There really doesn't seem to much strength in depth once you look past the first four and with the tournament prone to yielding shock winners I'm going for a couple of small, speculative punts at huge odds. This event is always played at the end of the season and often players battling to save their Tour cards have come to the fore. Last season I recall being impressed by WADE ORMSBY as he won his card with three fine closing rounds. When he turned pro a couple of years back, Ormsby was being touted as the latest Aussie prospect and there have been several highly promising performances even if the youngster hasn't really produced the goods yet. Positive memories of Club De Campo could encourage a big run this week. One player in need of a big finish to the year to retain his card is talented South African HENNIE OTTO. Otto is capable of winning in good company on his day and his best efforts in Europe have usually come in Spain. After some solid efforts in minor events at home, I expect a decent showing on his first European excursion for a while. The PGA Tour moves on to its regular fixture in Las Vegas, the Michelin Pro-Am Championship. As always in such events, one of the key attributes will be patience with fourballs including two amateurs expected to produce rounds in excess of 6 hours. Normally I'm not enthusiastic about betting in this type of tournament but this year several players seem to stand out.

Anyone who saw the recent 84 Lumber Classic must now be in no doubt about the massive potential of JASON GORE. Since arriving on the world scene as a no-hoper in June at the US Open where he played superbly for the first three days, Gore continued his winning ways on the Nationwide Tour before landing his first PGA win in Pennsylvania. This attacking prospect is a birdie machine and I could see him taking easy Summerlin apart. Certainly while he is still available at 50/1+ Jason remains very much a player to keep on your side.

With scoring certain to be very low, only the most in-form putters can be expected to contend so I simply have to include BEN CRANE in the staking plan. After a fine summer, Crane is no secret to the bookies as his best price of 33/1 indicates. Nevertheless, such has been his consistency lately that he looks a better value bet than anyone above him in the betting. He's already managed two top-20s here in the past three years when barely a shadow of his present confident self and has shown promise in pro-ams before. As one of the slowest players on tour, Crane at least will be happy with the snails pace of this tournament.

Sweden's CARL PETTERSSON has taken the eye in recent weeks with a solid run of figures without ever really threatening to win. He finished last year in similar vein including 5th place here so is clearly happy with the pro-am format. I could see this fine putter shooting very low on this easy set-up so Carl looks worth chancing at the tasty odds of 80/1.

Though he doesn't particularly stand out on recent form, I can't ignore the massive price of 80/1 for LEE WESTWOOD. Despite two years without a win, plenty of his golf during this time has been top class and I'm sure a win is just around the corner. Though it was 8 years ago, Lee remains one of the few Europeans to have actually won in the States. He was only beaten by three shots a fortnight ago at the Dunhill Links where he was only 20/1 in a field of only slightly lower quality so this price makes plenty of appeal. Lets not forget, too, that Westwood has won pr0-ams in Scotland and South Africa before so shouldn't be fazed by the format.

Good Luck!

MADRID OPEN

2pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew STEVE WEBSTER @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew WADE ORMSBY @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew HENNIE OTTO @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

MICHELIN CHAMPIONSHIP

2pts ew JASON GORE @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BEN CRANE @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 80/1 (SKYBET)

2005 STATISTICS: (-9pts)

Hawkins the answer to snooker puzzle

After what has seemed like an eternal wait, at long last the first ranking tournament of the snooker season is upon us. The game is in such a terrible state, with very few sponsors interested, that there is considerable uncertainty about the motivation of many of the top players. Ronnie O'Sullivan was complaining again a few days ago about the lack of tournaments - there are only six ranking tournaments where once there was 15 - and suggested that his new career on the US Pool circuit would take precedence. Besides Ronnie, many of the top players seem more interested in developing their poker careers and can't be relied upon to be fully wound up for this week's Grand Prix, which carries few ranking points. The one star who should be prepared is Mark Williams, who must perform this year to rescue his place amongst the game'e elite top 16, but I'd want to see some evidence of his resurgence before parting with cash.

In the past, this tournament has been renowned for producing shocks. The top 16 players usually haven't played competitive snooker since the World Championships while the rest are match fit from a series of qualifying events. Without a doubt, many seeds will fall in the early stages so the sensible strategy must be to find plausible winners at big prices who are fancied to survive the first few rounds. The one that really stands out to me is BARRY HAWKINS at 100/1. The top half of the draw is dominated by World No 1 Ronnie and the player most likely to knock him off his perch, Stephen Maguire. My view is that Maguire is the man to beat this year but he could still be worth taking on this early in the year and I will never trust Ronnie again at short odds after his virtual nervous breakdown at Sheffield. Should these two get turned over, Hawkins looks as likely as anyone else in that half of the draw to reach the final. His first-round match against Tony Drago looks a shoe-in before potentially facing Peter Ebdon in Round 2. In recent years, Ebdon's form in early season best of nine matches has been nothing out of the ordinary whereas Hawkins looks the younger, hungrier player. In any case, there would be little to choose between the two on last year's form so I see no reason to warrant Hawkins' price tag.

Another contender at a big price in the top half could be PAUL HUNTER, in his first tournament back after cancer surgery. Paul is 50/1 to pull off what would be an extremely popular win, and though it is asking a hell of a lot, that price could look enormous should the draw open up for him. The Leeds man couldn't have been given an easier opening match against the limited Rory Mcleod and could trade at a much lower price just after that first match. Finally in the top half, have a tiny speculative punt on JAMIE COPE at 500/1. Though I've never had the pleasure of watching Cope play, many good judges speak very highly of him and Jamie's results in qualifying have been very impressive. Again, should he successfully negotiate a tough first round match against Joe Perry, only ordinary opposition would stand in the way of a good run.

The bottom half looks a lot tighter, with plenty of close matches in prospect. I'm going to break the habit of the lifetime here and recommend a trade on snooker legend STEPHEN HENDRY at 10/1. Hendry is normally the last player I'd back in a tournament like this, as his motivation and concentration are definitely suspect these days but I'm very confident that he will get through the early stages and trade at much, much shorter. The Scot has started the season well, playing well to reach the final of the Invitational Northern Ireland Classic in August and showing some nice form on the friendly Premier League circuit. Anything close to a reproduction of that form will surely be enough to get past Dominic Dale and Mark King and as other seeds fall, Hendry's price will definitely contract. However, should Hendry reach the last 8 I strongly recommend closing out this trade at shortish prices.

Similarly in the final quarter, JOHN HIGGINS looks a very reasonable trade at 16/1. For reasons that I can't fathom, the Wizard of Wishaw has developed a worrying tendency to lose concentration over the last few years despite apparently retaining all the ability that made him World Champion and the one to beat a few years ago. The only players who look capable of stopping him reaching the last 8 are Ian McCulloch and Ryan Day who, though dangerous, would start a match against Higgins as big outsiders. As with Hendry, if and when Higgins reaches the latter stages, he would be worth laying back at short prices.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

2pts ew BARRY HAWKINS @ 100/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, UK BETTING)
0.25pts ew JAMIE COPE @ 500/1 (BET DIRECT)
2pts win PAUL HUNTER @ 50/1 (BET365) (Lay back at less than 10/1)
4pts win STEPHEN HENDRY @ 10/1 (WIDELY AVAILABLE) (Lay back at less than 4/1)
4pts win JOHN HIGGINS @ 16/1 (SPORTING ODDS) (Lay back at less than 5/1)