Ashes 2006 Betting Preview
14 months ago, when England completed that amazing first Ashes victory in two decades at The Oval, there was much talk of a new world order in cricket. At last the Australian juggernaut had shown sign of cracks, and at last there was a genuinely world-class pace bowling attack capable of regularly dismissing that awesome batting line-up had emerged. Sadly, that all seems a brief moment in time now. While we can hope for another thrilling Ashes series and dream that England may once again be able to give as good as they get, its hard to see anything but a comprehensive victory for the hosts.
Reverting to 2005, there were several key reasons behind England's triumph. First and foremost, all the pace bowlers were outstanding and a permanent threat. The prodigious reverse-swing achieved by Simon Jones in particular wrought havoc upon the Australian middle-order, with Shane Warne and Brett Lee left to drag the total to respectability on more than one occasion. Michael Vaughan's inspirational captaincy. Home advantage was also a factor, and it certainly helped England's cause that Glenn McGrath missed three Tests. Some Australians have suggested their preparation was less than perfect after a gruelling tour of India.
There are so many different conditions to take into account this time. England's pace attack is a pale shadow of its former self. Jones is absent, Flintoff has spent most of the year out injured and Steve Harmison is badly out of form. Matthew Hoggard will doubtless be his normal dependable self, and will have to put in some long, tiring spells in the heat this winter. On the plus side, Monty Panesar is a great find and brings a new dimension to England's repertoire. I also still rate James Anderson as a bowler of potential, well capable of doing some damage with the new ball on Australian pitches. However, the bowling threat will be further weakened in comparison to 2005 by the fact that there will be less swing on offer.
Equally the Australians look stronger, and with home advantage as formidable opponent as one is ever likely to encounter in Test cricket. The direct swap of Michael Hussey to the middle-order in favour of Simon Katich is a massive improvement. Whereas Katich averaged just 27.5 from nine laboured innings in England, Hussey has looked inpenetrable since making a belated Test debut in the following series. In eleven Tests, he has already amassed 1139 runs at an average of just under 76. And this time, it is Australia who have enjoyed the perfect, long preparation. Meanwhile England have to make do without skipper Michael Vaughan and Marcus Trescothick.
If there's a glimmer of hope for England, it would seem the Australian bowling attack is less potent than others faced on recent Ashes tours. Warne remains the key threat as he chases his 700th wicket, but McGrath has lost a yard of pace and whilst still a canny, economical bowler is not the threat of old. Brett Lee is a decent strike bowler but not noticeably better than his English opposites. In the matches he plays, I shall be buying Stuart Clark's wickets. Another player who has come into the side later in his career than most, Clark was outstanding on the South African tour, doing a very passable impression of Glenn McGrath with his nagging line and length. From 4 Tests, Clark has an impressive return of 21 wickets at an average of 18.76, and so should not be underestimated. But if England can somehow limit the Warne effect, they have a chance.
From a betting perspective, the problem is that bookies seem to agree entirely with my analysis. There's not a lot of sense in backing Australia to win the series at a completely prohibitive 1/5. I usually find the best market for Test series betting is the correct score market. Statistics prove comprehensively that Test match draws are very rare in this part of the world. Only 3 of the last 37 have not produced a result, with Australia winning an incredible 31. England aren't exactly draw specialists either with only 7 draws in their last 29 competitive Tests (discounting Bangladesh and Zimbabwe). Only 2 of the last 16 Ashes Tests have failed to produce a result. Both sides have naturally attacking batsmen so the fast run-rate normally ensures a result unless the weather intervenes. Even looking at the two drawn matches last time, both were severely weather affected, and at Old Trafford, England only needed one more wicket for the victory.
So with results expected, and with Australia apparent certainties at 1.2 (Betfair), I like a combination of 3-1 and 4-1 as the series scoreline. At 6/1 and 9/1 respectively, this looks far more attractive as a betting proposition. The combined odds here are just over 3/1, and if the early matches at least produce favourable results there will be potential savers to bank profit out of the bet towards the end of the series.
If you're looking for an interest on the spreads here, the one market I like the look of is Sporting Index's "Tails of the Unexpected" which is the cumulitive score of Australia's batsmen from 8-11 and we can buy at 325. This would have yielded a handsome profit in the last Ashes, and we've still got Shane Warne and Brett Lee on our side against a signicantly less effective bowling line-up. Remember the trouble England had eliminating Sri Lanka's tail in the early summer? It transformed the series. Even Glenn McGrath shared a century stand a few years ago so the sky's the limit for this bet as far as I'm concerned. And there is also one potential dream scenario - that at some stage a night-watchman is required, and Adam Gilchrist bats at number 8.
The other spread price I shall be looking for tomorrow is that of Stuart Clark in the 1st Test. As I alluded to above, he could be seriously under-estimated. Unfortunately there are no current prices available and may not be until the team is confirmed, so a decision will have to be taken at the very last minute.
Good Luck!
SERIES CORRECT SCORE
20pts AUSTRALIA TO WIN 3-1 @ 6/1 (PREMIERBET, 7.4 ON BETFAIR)
14pts AUSTRALIA 4-1 @ 9/1 (LADBROKES, 10.5 ON BETFAIR)
SPREADS
BUY AUSTRALIAN TAILS OF THE UNEXPECTED 1pt @ 325 (SPORTING INDEX)
LOOK OUT FOR STUART CLARK MATCH OR SERIES WICKET SPREAD PRICES TOMORROW
Reverting to 2005, there were several key reasons behind England's triumph. First and foremost, all the pace bowlers were outstanding and a permanent threat. The prodigious reverse-swing achieved by Simon Jones in particular wrought havoc upon the Australian middle-order, with Shane Warne and Brett Lee left to drag the total to respectability on more than one occasion. Michael Vaughan's inspirational captaincy. Home advantage was also a factor, and it certainly helped England's cause that Glenn McGrath missed three Tests. Some Australians have suggested their preparation was less than perfect after a gruelling tour of India.
There are so many different conditions to take into account this time. England's pace attack is a pale shadow of its former self. Jones is absent, Flintoff has spent most of the year out injured and Steve Harmison is badly out of form. Matthew Hoggard will doubtless be his normal dependable self, and will have to put in some long, tiring spells in the heat this winter. On the plus side, Monty Panesar is a great find and brings a new dimension to England's repertoire. I also still rate James Anderson as a bowler of potential, well capable of doing some damage with the new ball on Australian pitches. However, the bowling threat will be further weakened in comparison to 2005 by the fact that there will be less swing on offer.
Equally the Australians look stronger, and with home advantage as formidable opponent as one is ever likely to encounter in Test cricket. The direct swap of Michael Hussey to the middle-order in favour of Simon Katich is a massive improvement. Whereas Katich averaged just 27.5 from nine laboured innings in England, Hussey has looked inpenetrable since making a belated Test debut in the following series. In eleven Tests, he has already amassed 1139 runs at an average of just under 76. And this time, it is Australia who have enjoyed the perfect, long preparation. Meanwhile England have to make do without skipper Michael Vaughan and Marcus Trescothick.
If there's a glimmer of hope for England, it would seem the Australian bowling attack is less potent than others faced on recent Ashes tours. Warne remains the key threat as he chases his 700th wicket, but McGrath has lost a yard of pace and whilst still a canny, economical bowler is not the threat of old. Brett Lee is a decent strike bowler but not noticeably better than his English opposites. In the matches he plays, I shall be buying Stuart Clark's wickets. Another player who has come into the side later in his career than most, Clark was outstanding on the South African tour, doing a very passable impression of Glenn McGrath with his nagging line and length. From 4 Tests, Clark has an impressive return of 21 wickets at an average of 18.76, and so should not be underestimated. But if England can somehow limit the Warne effect, they have a chance.
From a betting perspective, the problem is that bookies seem to agree entirely with my analysis. There's not a lot of sense in backing Australia to win the series at a completely prohibitive 1/5. I usually find the best market for Test series betting is the correct score market. Statistics prove comprehensively that Test match draws are very rare in this part of the world. Only 3 of the last 37 have not produced a result, with Australia winning an incredible 31. England aren't exactly draw specialists either with only 7 draws in their last 29 competitive Tests (discounting Bangladesh and Zimbabwe). Only 2 of the last 16 Ashes Tests have failed to produce a result. Both sides have naturally attacking batsmen so the fast run-rate normally ensures a result unless the weather intervenes. Even looking at the two drawn matches last time, both were severely weather affected, and at Old Trafford, England only needed one more wicket for the victory.
So with results expected, and with Australia apparent certainties at 1.2 (Betfair), I like a combination of 3-1 and 4-1 as the series scoreline. At 6/1 and 9/1 respectively, this looks far more attractive as a betting proposition. The combined odds here are just over 3/1, and if the early matches at least produce favourable results there will be potential savers to bank profit out of the bet towards the end of the series.
If you're looking for an interest on the spreads here, the one market I like the look of is Sporting Index's "Tails of the Unexpected" which is the cumulitive score of Australia's batsmen from 8-11 and we can buy at 325. This would have yielded a handsome profit in the last Ashes, and we've still got Shane Warne and Brett Lee on our side against a signicantly less effective bowling line-up. Remember the trouble England had eliminating Sri Lanka's tail in the early summer? It transformed the series. Even Glenn McGrath shared a century stand a few years ago so the sky's the limit for this bet as far as I'm concerned. And there is also one potential dream scenario - that at some stage a night-watchman is required, and Adam Gilchrist bats at number 8.
The other spread price I shall be looking for tomorrow is that of Stuart Clark in the 1st Test. As I alluded to above, he could be seriously under-estimated. Unfortunately there are no current prices available and may not be until the team is confirmed, so a decision will have to be taken at the very last minute.
Good Luck!
SERIES CORRECT SCORE
20pts AUSTRALIA TO WIN 3-1 @ 6/1 (PREMIERBET, 7.4 ON BETFAIR)
14pts AUSTRALIA 4-1 @ 9/1 (LADBROKES, 10.5 ON BETFAIR)
SPREADS
BUY AUSTRALIAN TAILS OF THE UNEXPECTED 1pt @ 325 (SPORTING INDEX)
LOOK OUT FOR STUART CLARK MATCH OR SERIES WICKET SPREAD PRICES TOMORROW
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 4:35 PM
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