Northern Ireland Trophy Snooker Betting Preview
Just when you thought snooker couldn't get any more unpredictable, up pop Dominic Dale and Marcu Fu to win the first two ranking events of the season. Add that to the incredible statistic that 13 different players have won the last 16 events, and you'd have to be insane to consider backing anyone at single-figure odds before a tournament starts.
Its not even as if those 13 different winners reflect the top-13 in the world. Top players such as Stephen Maguire, Ryan Day, Stephen Hendry, Matthew Stevens are all winless over that period.The Northern Ireland Trophy starts on Sunday, and as a tournament with no more stature than the two that preceded it, nothing would surprise me.
As always the key to solving the puzzle is to study the draw and find the weaker sections. There looks to be an obvious uneven split, with the first and fourth quarters looking much stronger. The fourth quarter in particular looks ultra-competitive, including tournament favourite Ronnie O'Sullivan, world champ John Higgins, Mark Selby and Ali Carter.
In the top section, only one of Ding Junhui and Maguire can possibly reach the last eight even assuming dangerous floaters Joe Perry or Stuart Bingham don't wreck their plans. The battle to be their quarter-final opponent looks more open though, as the obvious choice Neil Robertson has looked woefully out of sorts so far this season. JAMIE COPE also disappointed in the Grand Prix, but at 40/1 still represents decent each-way value as the next best in this mini-section. After all, Cope did reach two ranking finals last year and remains one of the game's brightest young stars.
Overall, the best value in my view is SHAUN MURPHY at 14/1, the one player who has consistently performed well in 2007. Since winning the Welsh Open, he's made the semis in Malta, Sheffield and Aberdeen. In those last two, he looked a certainty to make the final before being stung by brilliant comebacks from Selby and then O'Sullivan. The obvious dangers in his quarter - Hendry, Ebdon and Stevens - all look inferior. Ebdon and Stevens are rarely seen to best effect in best-of 9 tournaments, while Hendry looks less likely to ever win again with each tournament failure.
With good draws, I could see MARK ALLEN and JOE SWAIL making good use of their home support to get a run going here. Swail is in the same quarter as Murphy, and looks better value than the others mentioned. Joe played pretty well in Aberdeen before being predictably beaten by O'Sullivan, and at 125/1, he's worth a nibble each-way. Swail may not be the most obvious winner but no less likely than Dale or Fu.
Allen didn't set Aberdeen alight, but could be more dangerous back on home turf. 2 years ago he claimed some good scalps in this tournament when it was still an invitational. Furthermore, he is positioned in the weakest section. The biggest names in the third quarter are Mark Williams, Graeme Dott and Ken Doherty. Williams looks finished at the top level, and while I wouldn't completely rule out a return to form for the latter pair, both will have to improve massively on their dire efforts of a fortnight ago. There's also a lack of dangerous outsiders in this section, with John Parrott, Rod Lawler and Mike Dunn representing little threat.
I much prefer RYAN DAY to his more experienced rivals in this weak quarter. Having lost the final in Shanghai to Dale, Day looked set for another good run in the Grand Prix before running into class act Murphy. The Welshman remains one of the best players yet to win a ranking event, a run that will surely end soon.
4pts ew SHAUN MURPHY @ 14/1 (PADDY POWER)
2pts ew RYAN DAY @ 33/1 (SPORTING BET)
1.5pts ew JAMIE COPE @ 40/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew MARK ALLEN @ 80/1 (CENTREBET, PADDY POWER)
1pt ew JOE SWAIL @ 125/1 (STAN JAMES)
Its not even as if those 13 different winners reflect the top-13 in the world. Top players such as Stephen Maguire, Ryan Day, Stephen Hendry, Matthew Stevens are all winless over that period.The Northern Ireland Trophy starts on Sunday, and as a tournament with no more stature than the two that preceded it, nothing would surprise me.
As always the key to solving the puzzle is to study the draw and find the weaker sections. There looks to be an obvious uneven split, with the first and fourth quarters looking much stronger. The fourth quarter in particular looks ultra-competitive, including tournament favourite Ronnie O'Sullivan, world champ John Higgins, Mark Selby and Ali Carter.
In the top section, only one of Ding Junhui and Maguire can possibly reach the last eight even assuming dangerous floaters Joe Perry or Stuart Bingham don't wreck their plans. The battle to be their quarter-final opponent looks more open though, as the obvious choice Neil Robertson has looked woefully out of sorts so far this season. JAMIE COPE also disappointed in the Grand Prix, but at 40/1 still represents decent each-way value as the next best in this mini-section. After all, Cope did reach two ranking finals last year and remains one of the game's brightest young stars.
Overall, the best value in my view is SHAUN MURPHY at 14/1, the one player who has consistently performed well in 2007. Since winning the Welsh Open, he's made the semis in Malta, Sheffield and Aberdeen. In those last two, he looked a certainty to make the final before being stung by brilliant comebacks from Selby and then O'Sullivan. The obvious dangers in his quarter - Hendry, Ebdon and Stevens - all look inferior. Ebdon and Stevens are rarely seen to best effect in best-of 9 tournaments, while Hendry looks less likely to ever win again with each tournament failure.
With good draws, I could see MARK ALLEN and JOE SWAIL making good use of their home support to get a run going here. Swail is in the same quarter as Murphy, and looks better value than the others mentioned. Joe played pretty well in Aberdeen before being predictably beaten by O'Sullivan, and at 125/1, he's worth a nibble each-way. Swail may not be the most obvious winner but no less likely than Dale or Fu.
Allen didn't set Aberdeen alight, but could be more dangerous back on home turf. 2 years ago he claimed some good scalps in this tournament when it was still an invitational. Furthermore, he is positioned in the weakest section. The biggest names in the third quarter are Mark Williams, Graeme Dott and Ken Doherty. Williams looks finished at the top level, and while I wouldn't completely rule out a return to form for the latter pair, both will have to improve massively on their dire efforts of a fortnight ago. There's also a lack of dangerous outsiders in this section, with John Parrott, Rod Lawler and Mike Dunn representing little threat.
I much prefer RYAN DAY to his more experienced rivals in this weak quarter. Having lost the final in Shanghai to Dale, Day looked set for another good run in the Grand Prix before running into class act Murphy. The Welshman remains one of the best players yet to win a ranking event, a run that will surely end soon.
4pts ew SHAUN MURPHY @ 14/1 (PADDY POWER)
2pts ew RYAN DAY @ 33/1 (SPORTING BET)
1.5pts ew JAMIE COPE @ 40/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew MARK ALLEN @ 80/1 (CENTREBET, PADDY POWER)
1pt ew JOE SWAIL @ 125/1 (STAN JAMES)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:28 AM
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