China Open Snooker Preview
We've only three weeks to wait until the highlight of the snooker season, (and in my view the sporting season), the World Championships. Before then though, starting early tomorrow, we have the China Open.
The proximity of this event to the World Championship, as with others that had previously been unfortunate enough to take this late position in the annual schedule, has a habit of playing havoc with the formbook. Some of the leading candidates, in particular Ronnie O'Sullivan, have viewed an overseas trip at this time to be an unwelcome diversion. Others, such as last year's champion Peter Ebdon, have suddenly found form following a poor year, presumably because they'd been working hard ahead of the big one.
Most of them are at least 'match fit', as last week saw the final two groups of the Championship League. Marco Fu emerged as champion, but I think we must treat that form with a very large pinch of salt. The format of that league event, where the top-four progress to a best of five knockout stage, often means those producing the best overall form don't win. That was certainly the case with Fu. Based on the superior guide of total frames won, last week's most in-form players were Mark Williams, Peter Ebdon, STEPHEN MAGUIRE, Jamie Cope and MARK ALLEN.
Any of those are very plausible winners in China, but as usual the draw makes certain picks more obvious than others. Williams and Cope, for instance, meet one another in the last-32, after which they would be scheduled to play world no.1 John Higgins. In short, both the top and bottom quarters are extremely competitive, and I am therefore happy to leave those sections alone throughout the opening rounds, until we see who emerges.
The other two are markedly weaker. The third quarter contains at best just three plausible winners, one of whom is Joe Perry, who has endured an awful year. The others are O'Sullivan and ALI CARTER. Such a draw means Ronnie deserves more respect than he normally would in a low-grade overseas event, but he's still well worth taking on. By process of elimination, the efficient Carter looks a solid bet at 5/1 to win this quarter. He's very good at beating inferior opponents, and wouldn't have to play Ronnie until the decisive quarter-final.
The second quarter contains many more capable players, but most have struggled this year. Nevertheless, I will be keeping an eye on the likes of Ryan Day and Barry Hawkins in the early stages to see if they improve. You may recall in the last ranking event, we had a couple of speculative bets on Hawkins and Higginson from a similar draw, that promised much before ultimately disappointing. I'm tempted with both, especially Higginson, but will wait to see how he gets on in his wildcard match first, as an odds-on win there shouldn't make much difference to his outright price.
The two big guns in here are Maguire and Allen at 14/1 and 20/1 respectively, which represents decent each-way value. They are hot favourites against Hawkins and Graeme Dott respectively in their openers, and would play one another should both deliver. If as expected, one of them reaches the quarters, we would be on roughly a 15/2 shot to win the event and a 7/2 shot to reach the final. Whoever they play in that quarter, our man would be favourite. Moreover, as this top half is significantly easier - with no O'Sullivan, Higgins or Murphy - the semi final task won't be impossible either.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
10pts ALI CARTER TO WIN 3RD QUARTER @ 5/1 (BOYLESPORTS)
OUTRIGHT
8pts ew STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 14/1 (SKYBET, BETFRED, TOTE, CORALS)
6pts ew MARK ALLEN @ 20/1 (TOTE, BETFRED, BLUESQ, HILLS)
The proximity of this event to the World Championship, as with others that had previously been unfortunate enough to take this late position in the annual schedule, has a habit of playing havoc with the formbook. Some of the leading candidates, in particular Ronnie O'Sullivan, have viewed an overseas trip at this time to be an unwelcome diversion. Others, such as last year's champion Peter Ebdon, have suddenly found form following a poor year, presumably because they'd been working hard ahead of the big one.
Most of them are at least 'match fit', as last week saw the final two groups of the Championship League. Marco Fu emerged as champion, but I think we must treat that form with a very large pinch of salt. The format of that league event, where the top-four progress to a best of five knockout stage, often means those producing the best overall form don't win. That was certainly the case with Fu. Based on the superior guide of total frames won, last week's most in-form players were Mark Williams, Peter Ebdon, STEPHEN MAGUIRE, Jamie Cope and MARK ALLEN.
Any of those are very plausible winners in China, but as usual the draw makes certain picks more obvious than others. Williams and Cope, for instance, meet one another in the last-32, after which they would be scheduled to play world no.1 John Higgins. In short, both the top and bottom quarters are extremely competitive, and I am therefore happy to leave those sections alone throughout the opening rounds, until we see who emerges.
The other two are markedly weaker. The third quarter contains at best just three plausible winners, one of whom is Joe Perry, who has endured an awful year. The others are O'Sullivan and ALI CARTER. Such a draw means Ronnie deserves more respect than he normally would in a low-grade overseas event, but he's still well worth taking on. By process of elimination, the efficient Carter looks a solid bet at 5/1 to win this quarter. He's very good at beating inferior opponents, and wouldn't have to play Ronnie until the decisive quarter-final.
The second quarter contains many more capable players, but most have struggled this year. Nevertheless, I will be keeping an eye on the likes of Ryan Day and Barry Hawkins in the early stages to see if they improve. You may recall in the last ranking event, we had a couple of speculative bets on Hawkins and Higginson from a similar draw, that promised much before ultimately disappointing. I'm tempted with both, especially Higginson, but will wait to see how he gets on in his wildcard match first, as an odds-on win there shouldn't make much difference to his outright price.
The two big guns in here are Maguire and Allen at 14/1 and 20/1 respectively, which represents decent each-way value. They are hot favourites against Hawkins and Graeme Dott respectively in their openers, and would play one another should both deliver. If as expected, one of them reaches the quarters, we would be on roughly a 15/2 shot to win the event and a 7/2 shot to reach the final. Whoever they play in that quarter, our man would be favourite. Moreover, as this top half is significantly easier - with no O'Sullivan, Higgins or Murphy - the semi final task won't be impossible either.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
10pts ALI CARTER TO WIN 3RD QUARTER @ 5/1 (BOYLESPORTS)
OUTRIGHT
8pts ew STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 14/1 (SKYBET, BETFRED, TOTE, CORALS)
6pts ew MARK ALLEN @ 20/1 (TOTE, BETFRED, BLUESQ, HILLS)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 7:18 AM
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