Betting Previews for Volvo Masters & Chrysler Championship

The final act of this year's Order of Merit race is upon us as the 2005-2006 European Tour season comes to a conclusion at Valderrama this weekend. Before the 2006-2007 starts in a fortnight in Hong Kong, there's two more weeks of the US season left, with next week's Tour Championship to follow on from this week's Chrysler Championship. As always, the Volvo Masters Andalucia is an extremely lucrative affair, which means that we are still a long way from counting the winnings from OOM leader Paul Casey. With the first two prizes 666,660 and 444,440 Euros respectively, Casey needs to finish third to make Padraig Harrington or David Howell need the win rather than second place, while Robert Karlsson has a squeak if he can win the event and the others all finish 3rd or worse.

So far, not bothering with the saver has paid dividends. The only plausible saver is to lay Casey on Betfair at around 1/3, but I'm going to take my chances anyway. After all, its heavily odds-on that none of the contenders will win here, especially considering their ordinary course records, and as long as they don't run away with it a saver is always a possibility in-running. Having said that, I do make Casey very much one to oppose around the quirky layout of Valderrama. His main quality, length and strength, is fairly irrelevant around here, where accuracy is at an absolute premium.

One of the consequences of Valderrama's quirks is that few players relish the test, and many
have atrocious records yet still turn up for the guaranteed prize money. The two that really stand out are the two highest ranked players and market leaders, SERGIO GARCIA and LUKE DONALD. The bookies aren't giving much away at 7/1 and 9/1 respectively, but its very hard to see either being far away and will both probably at least trade much shorter. Garcia has finished runner-up for the last two years and never worse than 7th. I think this course suits him as well as any as it rewards his magnificent long game and penalises his inability to hole a putt less than most. The greens here are so hard very few lengthy birdie putts are holed by anyone. This also plays into Donald's hands, who rarely misses a green in regulation. Interestingly, Donald finished like a train last year in 3rd and looked to be getting the hang of a course that takes some knowing. After all, he has only played eight rounds here and for the first time, comes here fresh.

Another player who might have benefitted over the years because of the nature of the greens here is COLIN MONTGOMERIE, who is a very big price at 25/1 considering his great course record. Joint-winner in 2002, Monty looked set for another win here last year before he and Garcia shared a catastrophic final 2-ball to let in Paul McGinley. Like Sergio, Monty will be desperate to land his first win of the season, especially when it hasn't been so bad. After all, he probably came closer to winning a Major in 2006 than he ever has or will. And he was playing well enough last month to finish 6th in Germany under far less suitable conditions.

On the basis of his course record, rising star BRADLEY DREDGE also looks worth an each-way punt at 28/1. Dredge finished 3rd to Monty and Langer in 2002 and has made the top-15 on three out of four visits to Valderrama. After an improved 2005 where he promised much but consistently failed to produce the goods on the final day and some similar frustrations in 2006, last month's runaway win at Crans Sur Sierre may have marked a significant step in the Welshman's career. It was very interesting to see him finish runner-up to Harrington in his next start at the Dunhill Links, especially considering the fact that Bradley has never looked at his best on links courses. Clearly, Dredge's confidence at an all-time high, and should be persevered with when conditions suit, as they most certainly do here.

There was a period at the weekend where I thought I'd finally cracked the impossible PGA Tour with a 50/1 winner when Justin Rose was 8 shots ahead, but alas his putting fell apart over the weekend and we had to settle for a place behind Joe Durant, more in keeping with the usual Stateside winner in that he never even appeared on my radar. The Chrysler Championship, however, has produced top-class winners in recent years in the form of VIJAY SINGH, Retief Goosen and to a lesser extent Carl Pettersson and KJ Choi. For this reason, I'm prepared to lay out a bit more than in recent weeks here.

Furthermore, there's plenty of class on show, with Ernie Els playing here for the first time along with Singh, Goosen and Adam Scott from the world's top-10. The player I really like though is another course debutant, rising star TREVOR IMMELMAN. For my money, Immelman is the emerging player of 2006. He's been labelled a superstar in the making since practising with Els as a kid, and after steady progress on the Sunshine and European Tours, Trevor has at last come of age in the States. His win over Tiger and Vijay at the Western Open in July confirmed he has the temperament to compete in the highest company, and looking back over the past six months confirms that he is now one of the very best around and getting better. Immelman's last 13 starts have yielded 7 top-10s and the only two occasions he failed to make the top-20 were Majors - in fact his lowest position of 34th came after a lay-off for the birth of his first child. 14th place at the weekend was also slightly misleading as he threw in one disastrous triple-bogey at the end of round 3 that transformed his position on the leaderboard.

Deciding whether to include Vijay here was a real dilemma. He has been impossible to get right all season, much of the time looking like a player in decline but being the old warrior that he is, Vijay always seems to bounce back as soon as we start to write him off. His record at Copperhead is excellent, finishing runner-up in 2003 before winning in 2004, and then astounding favourite backers when missing a rare cut last year! But on the basis of Sunday's finish, Singh is more than capable of winning again soon. He started the last round eight shots behind yet still made the place money. I'm not going to get over-excited about his chances, but he probably has the best chance of the stars on show here, and 14/1 is very big considering the course record.

Its also hard not to make a case for STEWART CINK at 25/1 after he finished 3rd here last year. My only nagging doubt is that he's not the most prolific winner out there, but its also true that Cink has not played a bad event since the unsuitable Open Championship. One of very few Americans to emerge from the Ryder Cup debacle with any credit, Stewart also played well for the first three rounds the following week as Tiger ran away with the Amex. He also nearly won the previous WGC event at Firestone only to be touched off by the great man, one of four top-5 finishes in his last nine starts.

Though I don't rate him in quite the same league as Immelman, SEAN O'HAIR is another exciting prospect fancied to go well here. The US are clearly struggling to produce a new generation of stars ready to improve on a dire recent Ryder Cup record, but I rate O'Hair as highly as anyone. In stark contrast to Singh, a poor final round at the weekend turned a winning chance into an average week, but there was enough encouragement from the first three rounds to confirm that the form that brought two top-4 finishes in August and September is still there. Interestingly, Sean made the top-10 on his course debut last year. In my view, he's improved in the meantime and can take a hand in the finish.

Finally, at the crazy odds of 125/1, I've just got to have a small interest on Bay Hill winner ROD PAMPLING. Copperhead is a course that favours the best iron players, hence the good record of the leading players. Pampling normally relishes such courses, which goes some way to explain his Bay Hill win and a good record at Augusta. 4th place here in 2002 also confirms his liking for the course.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

VOLVO MASTERS

6pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 7/1 (BETFRED, LADBROKES, VCBET)
6pts win LUKE DONALD @ 9/1 (BETFRED, CORALS, PREMIERBET)
2pts ew COLIN MONTGOMERIE @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 28/1 WITH SPORTINGBET)
2pts ew BRADLEY DREDGE @ 28/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

CHRYSLER CLASSIC

3pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2.5pts ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 22/1 (BET DIRECT, PADDY POWER, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew STEWART CINK @ 28/1 (BET365, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew SEAN O'HAIR @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew ROD PAMPLING @ 125/1 (PADDY POWER, SKYBET)

Good Luck!

2006 STATS: +94.75pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Betting previews for Mallorca Classic and FUNAI Classic

The penultimate week of the European Tour is upon us, with a nailbiting weekend in store for us Paul Casey backers for the Order of Merit. Padraig Harrington's win at the Dunhill Links has brought him right into the argument and the Irishman has altered his schedule to contest the Mallorca Open, while Casey rests up before next week's lucrative decider at Valderrama. The situation is this: Casey holds a 218,000 Euro lead over Harrington, 243,000 over David Howell who is not playing in Mallorca, and 445,000 over Robert Karlsson who is in this week's field. The Mallorca prize money on offer is this: 1st, 291,660, 2nd, 194,440 3rd,109,550. So Harrington must win to take the lead before Valderrama, but a top-3 finish will tighten things up considerably.

So what strategy to pursue? Having a saver seems a bit pointless, as even a Harrington win would not eliminate Howell from the equation, whereas a Karlsson win would bring him closer. There is also a similar precedent. Back in 2002, I vividly recall holding a big ante-post voucher on Retief Goosen before Harrington again won the Dunhill Links and rescheduled to play in extra events to try and close the gap. Now I'm a big Harrington fan generally, but as the Ryder Cup in Ireland suggested, he doesn't seem to carry the burden of expectation very well. That year, he played miserably in the final couple of events and Goosen won without producing anything of note himself. So under the circumstances, this week has to be about cheering against Pod.

The opposition is no pushover anyway. This event has been seriously dominated by the home contingent, with SERGIO GARCIA and Jose-Maria Olazabal winning the last two runnings. Sergio was second last year as well, and on his penultimate outing at the Ryder Cup went a long way to banishing the memories of a poor season. I've still got huge reservations about his putting though. Garcia putted great at the K Club, but then he always has in that team format, with help and support from a partner. Whether he can carry it over to strokeplay is another matter, but I'm still putting him in as a saver as he is certain to be there or thereabouts come Sunday and will probably trade a lot shorter. His compatriot and foursomes partner Olazabal is reluctantly left out of the staking plan though despite a similarly exemplary record on a course he designed. Jose-Maria's problem is that, Ryder Cup aside, he just hasn't produced much this summer to warrant such short odds.

One player well overdue some reward for a generally consistent year is SIMON KHAN. 15th at St Andrews last time was a perfectly fair effort, considering he's not really the links type, so it would seem his solid summer form is still there. Khan loves this course too, having been top-5 in 2003 and 2004, and being right in contention last year before a poor weekend dropped him down to 21st. 40/1 looks very reasonable each-way value.

At the same odds, I'm giving JOSE-MANUEL LARA one more chance to gain a long overdue first victory. Lara's form at Pula is beyond question - runner-up last year and top-11 the two previous years. A fine player from tee to green if a little suspect with the putter, Pula is perfect for him. Generally he is very consistent in this part of the world so represents decent each-way value at least.

Austrian MARKUS BRIER opened his winning account in his native land earlier in the year, and has a fair chance of following up on a course that suits. Brier came 4th here a couple of years back having contended throughout, and made the top-22 on both other visits. Recent top-10s in Germany and Holland confirm his wellbeing and suggest 80/1 is simply too big at this level.
Finally, in my endless search for a 100/1 winner, I'm going for SIMON WAKEFIELD to get some reward for a good season. The general problem has been putting in three good rounds only to blow it with one disaster, but I'm sure he's well aware of this and must fancy his chances on a course where he made the frame last year.

After yet another barren week in the States, where yet another three-figured price winner delivered, there's more pro-am hell in store at the FUNAI Classic. The market here is headed by Vijay Singh and recent winner Davis Love. Singh makes no appeal whatsoever after the year he's had, and a very disappointing finish at St Andrews. Love does have plenty of course form in the book as well as recent form, but even when he was undoubtably world-class he wasn't a player to take short odds about and is readily swerved here. Once again, the strategy here is to keep stakes to a minimum.

My idea of the best bet is England's JUSTIN ROSE. Justin is another player overdue a win, but this summer has at least been knocking on the door again. The fact that he came third in this event last year is a massive positive, as are the four consecutive top-15 finishes in September. My second selection is also a European, though CARL PETTERSSON has a couple of wins to his name over here. Having just missed out on the Ryder Cup, I'm backing the big Swede to bounce back swiftly this side of the Atlantic. This event is another putting contest, in other words perfect for Pettersson who has made the top-15 two years running in this event and generally has a fine record in Florida.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

MALLORCA CLASSIC

5pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 6/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew SIMON KHAN @ 40/1 (STAN JAMES, LADBROKES, BET365)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MARKUS BRIER @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew SIMON WAKEFIELD @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

FUNAI CLASSIC

1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

Good Luck!

2006 STATS: +90pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Betting Preview for Frys.com Championship

A quite week in store, with no event on the European Tour. Paul Casey, Padraig Harrington, David Howell and Robert Karlsson will resume their enthralling battle for the Order of Merit next week, as the European season enters its final fortnight.

Instead we've got one event on the ever more random PGA Tour in the form of the Frys.com Championship at Summerlin, Nevada.
When Tiger is absent, as he is this week, finding a winner in the States is proving to be a nightmare. Even though last week's winner Davis Love was fairly near to the head of the market, there was nothing in his recent form profile to suggest a win was around the corner. The Summerlin event is played over five rounds, which theoretically should give the class a better chance to dominate, but against that we have seen 500/1 winners Andre Stolz, Wes Short and 125/1 Phil Tataurangi win this event in recent years. Its no surprise to see World No.2 Jim Furyk installed as a short-priced favourite. Jim has a tremendous record on this course, and after a fabulous summer its impossible to create a case against him, but odds of 9/2 are plenty short enough. A model of consistency he may be, but Furyk is no Tiger and has never been a particularly prolific winner.

So really the best advice is to keep stakes to a minimum, and just have a bit of fun. DAVID HOWELL makes a rare appearance this side of the Atlantic, and is a big price at 50/1 considering his status in Europe and the relatively weak nature of this field. The price is no doubt based on his recent injury worries and a poor week at St Andrews. However if the injuries don't hold him back, and you have to think he wouldn't be playing in a pro-am if they were, he would have a great chance here. This event is no more than a glorified putting contest, and there are few if any better putters in the world than the Swindon man.

I'm normally loathe to back David's namesake, CHARLES HOWELL III, as he is one of the most over-hyped and disappointing players on the scene. Since being billed as the next big thing in a country desperate to find some promising youngsters to back up Tiger and give them a chance in the Ryder Cup again, Charles has flattered to deceive more often than not. However, his natural talent is there for all to see and both recent and course form suggest he'll be on the premises this week. He played well when runner-up at the Lumber Classic recently, and has made the top-20 on four from six visits to Summerlin, including 5th and 6th placed finishes. What has been generally been a disappointing season has shown signs of turning around just lately too, with three top-20s from his last five starts.

NICK WATNEY has been on a great run recently, so I'm taking a chance he can keep it up. Watney hit the front a bit too early at the weekend for someone chasing their first PGA title, leading at halfway before a bad round 3. The way he stormed back in R4 bodes well though, and it was his 3rd top-10 in five weeks. Last year he managed an excellent 6th on his course debut, and has shown a liking for Nevada with two other top-10s in the state.

And if we're looking for another three figured priced winner, then BUBBA WATSON must be worth a look. The huge-hitting Watson is quite a prospect, and has impressed many in his rookie season. Following 6th place at the International, Watson's form has held up recently. 31st at the weekend and top-15 on his three previous starts were decent efforts. None of those courses favoured his flamboyant, if inexperienced game. There may well be some improvement to come this week, as his attacking style could overpower these easy resort courses.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

1pt ew CHARLES HOWELL III @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew DAVID HOWELL @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew NICK WATNEY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BUBBA WATSON @ 100/1 (BETFRED, STAN JAMES)

Good Luck!

2006 STATS: +98pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

New e-mail address

Apologies to anybody who's been trying to contact me via e-mail over the last couple of weeks. I've changed my address to golfpunter@tiscali.co.uk. Just a quick reminder that I can provide regular sports betting advice for just £20 per week.

Golf Betting Preview for W/E 8/10/06

Only three weeks left of the 2005-6 European Tour, along with this year's Order of Merit title. My ante-post selection Paul Casey is sitting pretty with a 120,000 Euro lead and is best priced at 1/2, but I wouldn't take anything for granted just yet. He looked knackered at The Grove last week, not surprising after a very tough stint that included a Ryder Cup and 130 odds holes at Wentworth previously. Casey is as fit as anyone so perhaps he'll bounce back at the lucrative Dunhill Links on Thursday, but realistically he's never been a great links player and I'd be happy to see him make the top-15. His closest pursuer by far is David Howell, who worryingly has a fine record in this event with three top-6 finishes. There is obviously a big temptation to have a saver but its not really worth it as Howell could quite conceivably make up the deficit without winning over the last two big scoring opportunities here and at Valderrama in 16 days. And I don't fancy Howell this week. His best form here has been when the scoring has been easy and conditions friendly. Looking at the weekend weather forecast, I doubt that will be the case and the very best links players will probably come to the fore. Though he's a fine player, I've never considered Howell in that bracket. Third placed Robert Karlsson is still within striking range from 360,000 Euros behind, and if fourth-placed fellow Swede HENRIK STENSON continues his excellent recent form and wins here, he could still be a factor.

The most interesting stat pointing to Stenson is that he finished 6th here in 2003 when nowhere near the player he is now. Last year he followed up with third place so obviously is happy with the format. Looking back at Stenson's overall season, its easy to make the case that he's going to follow up on his recent victory in Germany soon. Over the winter and in the early months, he was arguably the best player in Europe, culminating in 4th place at Sawgrass. At that stage he was hyped into roughly 6th favourite for the Masters, so perhaps its no surprise that his form took a nosedive for a short period while he became accustomed to his new status and expectations. But in recent weeks he's looked right back to his best with that German win, and was one of the unsung heroes of the Ryder Cup with some sparkling form.

I could also see PADRAIG HARRINGTON getting into this argument yet, but he absolutely has to win this week. That is no forlorn hope by any means as there are few better links players in the world than Harrington, as the Irishman's record in this event testifies. In the five runnings of the Dunhill Links, Pod won in 2002 and has twice made the top-5 in other years. Since the end of May, he has been runner-up three times and made the top six on three other occasions, and had a solid enough score back in 17th behind Tiger last week. Harrington is overdue a win, and this event probably represents as good a chance has he gets all season.

LEE WESTWOOD has improved with age as a links exponent. When he was at his globetrotting winning machine best back in the late 90s, he never looked a natural for this type of golf and even confessed to hating St Andrews, where two of this week's four rounds are played. Yet strangely despite his star slipping from that high since the early days, Westwood has put together a solid set of Open finishes, won this in 2003 and finished 5th and 7th in the two years since. Joint top points scorer in the Ryder Cup, and generally in good form throughout the late summer, 33/1 looks a very big price for the Worksop wonder to end an uncharacteristic losing streak.

All of these European contenders though will have to get past the formidable presence of ERNIE ELS, the finest links player of them all. Runner-up twice in four completions here, following on from the best overall record of anyone in its forerunner of the Dunhill Cup not to mention an awesome record in the Open Championship and other links affairs around the world, its very hard to see Ernie not winning this one before his career is out. Distant fifth behind Tiger last week suggests he's finally coming back to his best after injury. 8/1 may be considerably shorter than anyone else in the field, but its still not bad considering the conditions. If the weather is even moderately bad, I don't reckon we need look beyond about 15 players here.

Completing a more expensive staking plan than usual, I'm having a rare bet on DARREN CLARKE. As a renowned poor finisher, I tend to avoid Darren, but I can't quibble with either his overall links record or his absolutely brilliant form at the Ryder Cup. After a shortened season for well documented personal reasons, there must be a good chance Clarke will finish the year strongly. Again if the weather turns bad, there are few players I'd rather be on.

In the States, attention moves to the Chrysler Classic of Greensboro. With the favourite at 22/1 on this increasingly random tour, I'm considerably less confident about the outcome. However, course form at Forest Oaks has proved a very good guide in the past, so the selections almost picked themselves from a limited shortlist. I strongly fancy STEVE STRICKER to land an overdue win here. Since returning from a long lay-off with injury and form problems, Stricker's form has been splendidly consistent. In 14 starts he's made the top-10 in half of those, including in each of his last four starts. He must go well back on the course where he made the top-3 back in 1996. Even though he was a class player back then, I wonder if he ever notched up such a consistent set of figures as recently.

Again defending champ KJ CHOI cannot be ignored on the basis of a tremendous track record. Of the Korean's last 16 rounds here, 11 have been in the 60s and he's never finished worse than 7th on his last four visits to Forest Oaks. 2006 form is solid enough too. KJ made back-to-back top-10s in August including the USPGA and has only missed three cuts since April - forgiveable as they were the first three Majors.

Despite some indifferent form recently, I've got to back TIM CLARK as 33/1 looks too big for the best player in the event yet to win in the States. As a multiple winner worldwide, Clark has nothing to prove. Lets not forget he's finished runner-up at the Masters this year, and not missed a single cut. The South African is usually seen to his best on courses that favour accuracy and good iron play. Forest Oaks is such a track, as last year's 6th place suggests. Finally JONATHAN BYRD has a decent each-way chance at 40/1. Byrd finished top-5 here in both 2001 and 2002 before injuries set his career back. There have been plenty of signs of life recently, particularly 5th in Canada on his penultimate start.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

DUNHILL LINKS CHAMPIONSHIP

8pts win ERNIE ELS @ 15/2 (UKBETTING, SPORTING ODDS, BETFRED, BETFAIR)
2.5pts ew HENRIK STENSON @ 18/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew DARREN CLARKE @ 33/1 (BETDIRECT, SKYBET)

CHRYSLER CLASSIC

3pts ew STEVE STRICKER @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew KJ CHOI @ 22/1 (BETDIRECT, VCBET, SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew TIM CLARK @ 33/1 (BETDIRECT, BETFRED, CORAL)
1pt ew JONATHAN BYRD @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: +56pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1