Weekly Golf Column Update
As anyone who has been following my weekly golf column will need no reminding, I have been on a truly terrible run. After the glory days of 2008, where my annual profit topped 600 points, with just a few weeks left of the 2009 campaign I'm well over 200 points down. All I can do is apologise to those who have been following my tips, and to say that I genuinely do share your suffering. This has been my worst run of golf betting in over a decade, and most certainly since turning professional six years ago.
Now anyone who knows anything about gambling will surely understand that bad runs do happen, and with that in mind I'm trying to stay positive. However, I'd be lying if I didn't admit that last week in particular was an utterly depressing experience.
The right course of action is to constantly assess and scrutinise strategies while always keeping an eye on the longer term trends. Here are some of my current thoughts on the matter, and if anyone has any further opinions or constructive criticism to add, they'll be gratefully received.
I'm loathe to discuss luck, lest I sound like a whinging gambler. It is important, however, to accept that luck always plays a key part in gambling, whether good or bad. During that magnificent 2008 run, I had more than my share of good luck. Players winning close contests with a great putt on the final hole, or opponents making a critical mistake on the final green. I'm reminded particularly of Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano winning the British Masters at 80/1 after several play-off holes, having repeatedly looked looked down and out.
Such things make or break a season, and this time the worm has completely turned. See at the bottom of this article, my list of wins and second places from 2009. Then compare them to the 2008 list. I've backed 24 runners-up this time, so given that each winner is worth an average of about 60 points, four winners would have covered the entire annual loss.
Whereas Castano, or 150/1 winner Felipe Aguilar built my reputation, I've had no such luck with the big priced candidates this time around. 125/1 chance Ross McGowan led by two with five to play before getting caught, 80/1 Peter Lawrie by a similar margin. 125/1 Scott Piercy led by four at one stage in the FBR Open, yet ended up returning virtually nothing in a five-way tie for 5th. Equally, Gareth Maybin has twice approached the closing holes with a winning chance at a big price, only to collapse and finish 6th. Narrowly missing the places has been a regular frustration this year, and again over the year, it really adds up.
Its impossible to estimate the exact impact, but I reckon the 'luck differential' between 2008 and 2009 must have been worth at least 400 points. However, it can't explain everything.
Much more can be explained by some of the results this year. I would feel a lot worse if I was missing winners every week, but many of this year's champions have been completely unbackable, particularly in Europe which is bad for me as I tend to lay out more on the Euro Tour. All four major winners were 100/1+ outsiders, and I would defy anyone to say they picked any of Wen-Tang Lin, Anthony Kang, Shane Lowry, Jeppe Huhldahl, Christian Cevear, Rafael Cabrera-Bello or Michael Jonzon in the week they won at enormous odds.
All of this, though frustrating, is a lesser concern to me than the wider lack of players in contention. Last week, eleven selections failed to produce a single top-10, and that to me is indefensible. But why? Is there something I'm doing differently?
I don't think so. I'm still using the same selection techniques, the same in-depth statistical analysis of each venue and the players concerned, yet its not producing anywhere near the same number of contenders.
Some of this may be explained by course conditions. It seems that more than ever in 2009, we've had wet golf courses, producing softened conditions and target golf, most memorably in the US Open. Those conditions tend to produce putting contests, and critically from my perspective, previous course form in drier conditions becomes almost irrelevant. Hopefully, this is a blip and normality will resume before long.
I realise it must be very frustrating to see the repeated selection of players who have let us down; see for instance Ian Poulter, Ross Fisher and Danny Willett. This is a real conundrum; knowing when to abandon a player. Earlier in the year, I tipped the promising Rafael Cabrera-Bello several times before abandoning him, only to see him pop up at an enormous price a couple of months later. In this last case though, I have no regrets as he was completely out of form.
A player like Willett is different though. Not only is he an outstanding prospect, but he has a very good return this year in terms of top-10 finishes and is normally available at decent odds. We did get a place at 90/1 at Celtic Manor, and that pays for quite a few losing bets, but overall he definitely deserves a payout week. My feeling is that, on certain types of course that favour his low-scoring game, he must be perservered with.
Fisher and Poulter are less clear-cut. With the former, the market has responded to his progress, and while he will eventually win again, he's too short to stick with blindly. However, Poulter's career win ratio is impressive, and I do believe he's improved markedly in the last 18 months. So I expect that Ian will be retained as a regular pick for some time.
Likewise, we must remember Paul Casey. During the summer of 2008, I identified Casey as a big improver and backed him several times at decent odds without success. Almost as soon as I stopped, he won three times in a short space of time and shot up to No.3 in the world. Frustratingly, I only backed one of those three wins, and that was at a much shorter price than we'd been used to just a few weeks earlier.
The other key factor worth mentioning is 'confidence'. Some gamblers try to take a more rigid, mathematical outlook but my years of gambling experience has left me sceptical of too rigid an approach. If the answers can be found mathematically, bookmakers will soon learn the right techniques too. With golf betting in particular, one needs to have a 'feel' for a course, or a tournament, or whether a player is 'overdue' a change of luck and a place payout.
This last point is the hardest thing to address, because nobody is immune to positive or negative thinking. When all is going well in gambling, its easy to be positive and that tends to produce good results. Likewise, the opposite is true. I'm still tearing myself apart over the penultimate two events, won by Lee Westwood and Martin Laird. Both were on my final shortlist, and both had been selected very recently. Ultimately though, both ever so slightly missed out on the final staking plan. Inevitably, one goes through the psychological torment of constantly re-assessing those decisions.
So what now? Its critically important not to panic. Largely, I think I'm doing the right things, and that they'll pay off in the long-term. All I can really say is that; I will continue to put in the hours, scour the formbook and apply these previously very successful strategies.
2009 WINNERS
NEDBANK CHALLENGE - HENRIK STENSON 7/1
OPEN DE ANDALUCIA - SOREN KJELDSEN 33/1
AP INVITATIONAL - TIGER WOODS 13/5
BALLANTINES C'SHIP - THONGCHAI JAIDEE 33/1
PLAYERS C'SHIP - HENRIK STENSON 50/1
BMW PGA C'SHIP - PAUL CASEY 16/1
ST JUDE CLASSIC - BRIAN GAY 35/1
BRITISH SENIORS OPEN - LOREN ROBERTS 20/1
BUICK OPEN - TIGER WOODS 15/8
WGC-BRIDGESTONE - TIGER WOODS 7/4
2009 RUNNERS-UP
MEMORIAL - JIM FURYK 25/1
SINGAPORE OPEN - ERNIE ELS 12/1
HONG KONG OPEN - FRANCESCO MOLINARI 45/1
DUNLOP PHOENIX - GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO 25/1
WORLD CUP - SPAIN 16/1
JOBURG OPEN - ANDREW MCLARDY 28/1
MERCEDES - ANTHONY KIM 9/1
ABU DHABI - MARTIN KAYMER 20/1
HEINEKEN - ROSS MCGOWAN 125/1
INDONESIAN OPEN - SIMON DYSON 20/1
INDONESIAN OPEN - ALEXANDER NOREN 25/1
AP INVITATIONAL - SEAN O'HAIR 33/1
PORTUGESE MASTERS - GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO 25/1
ST JUDE CLASSIC - DAVID TOMS 16/1
US OPEN - PHIL MICKELSON 20/1
TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP - DAVID TOMS 25/1
US BANK CHAMPIONSHIP - JOHN MALLINGER 33/1
BRITISH SENIORS OPEN - FRED FUNK 25/1
US SENIORS OPEN - GREG NORMAN 14/1
RENO-TAHOE OPEN - MARTIN LAIRD 66/1
KLM OPEN - PETER LAWRIE 66/1
BARCLAYS CLASSIC - ERNIE ELS 40/1
BARCLAYS CLASSIC - PADRAIG HARRINGTON 22/1
BMW CHAMPIONSHIP - JIM FURYK 25/1
Now anyone who knows anything about gambling will surely understand that bad runs do happen, and with that in mind I'm trying to stay positive. However, I'd be lying if I didn't admit that last week in particular was an utterly depressing experience.
The right course of action is to constantly assess and scrutinise strategies while always keeping an eye on the longer term trends. Here are some of my current thoughts on the matter, and if anyone has any further opinions or constructive criticism to add, they'll be gratefully received.
I'm loathe to discuss luck, lest I sound like a whinging gambler. It is important, however, to accept that luck always plays a key part in gambling, whether good or bad. During that magnificent 2008 run, I had more than my share of good luck. Players winning close contests with a great putt on the final hole, or opponents making a critical mistake on the final green. I'm reminded particularly of Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano winning the British Masters at 80/1 after several play-off holes, having repeatedly looked looked down and out.
Such things make or break a season, and this time the worm has completely turned. See at the bottom of this article, my list of wins and second places from 2009. Then compare them to the 2008 list. I've backed 24 runners-up this time, so given that each winner is worth an average of about 60 points, four winners would have covered the entire annual loss.
Whereas Castano, or 150/1 winner Felipe Aguilar built my reputation, I've had no such luck with the big priced candidates this time around. 125/1 chance Ross McGowan led by two with five to play before getting caught, 80/1 Peter Lawrie by a similar margin. 125/1 Scott Piercy led by four at one stage in the FBR Open, yet ended up returning virtually nothing in a five-way tie for 5th. Equally, Gareth Maybin has twice approached the closing holes with a winning chance at a big price, only to collapse and finish 6th. Narrowly missing the places has been a regular frustration this year, and again over the year, it really adds up.
Its impossible to estimate the exact impact, but I reckon the 'luck differential' between 2008 and 2009 must have been worth at least 400 points. However, it can't explain everything.
Much more can be explained by some of the results this year. I would feel a lot worse if I was missing winners every week, but many of this year's champions have been completely unbackable, particularly in Europe which is bad for me as I tend to lay out more on the Euro Tour. All four major winners were 100/1+ outsiders, and I would defy anyone to say they picked any of Wen-Tang Lin, Anthony Kang, Shane Lowry, Jeppe Huhldahl, Christian Cevear, Rafael Cabrera-Bello or Michael Jonzon in the week they won at enormous odds.
All of this, though frustrating, is a lesser concern to me than the wider lack of players in contention. Last week, eleven selections failed to produce a single top-10, and that to me is indefensible. But why? Is there something I'm doing differently?
I don't think so. I'm still using the same selection techniques, the same in-depth statistical analysis of each venue and the players concerned, yet its not producing anywhere near the same number of contenders.
Some of this may be explained by course conditions. It seems that more than ever in 2009, we've had wet golf courses, producing softened conditions and target golf, most memorably in the US Open. Those conditions tend to produce putting contests, and critically from my perspective, previous course form in drier conditions becomes almost irrelevant. Hopefully, this is a blip and normality will resume before long.
I realise it must be very frustrating to see the repeated selection of players who have let us down; see for instance Ian Poulter, Ross Fisher and Danny Willett. This is a real conundrum; knowing when to abandon a player. Earlier in the year, I tipped the promising Rafael Cabrera-Bello several times before abandoning him, only to see him pop up at an enormous price a couple of months later. In this last case though, I have no regrets as he was completely out of form.
A player like Willett is different though. Not only is he an outstanding prospect, but he has a very good return this year in terms of top-10 finishes and is normally available at decent odds. We did get a place at 90/1 at Celtic Manor, and that pays for quite a few losing bets, but overall he definitely deserves a payout week. My feeling is that, on certain types of course that favour his low-scoring game, he must be perservered with.
Fisher and Poulter are less clear-cut. With the former, the market has responded to his progress, and while he will eventually win again, he's too short to stick with blindly. However, Poulter's career win ratio is impressive, and I do believe he's improved markedly in the last 18 months. So I expect that Ian will be retained as a regular pick for some time.
Likewise, we must remember Paul Casey. During the summer of 2008, I identified Casey as a big improver and backed him several times at decent odds without success. Almost as soon as I stopped, he won three times in a short space of time and shot up to No.3 in the world. Frustratingly, I only backed one of those three wins, and that was at a much shorter price than we'd been used to just a few weeks earlier.
The other key factor worth mentioning is 'confidence'. Some gamblers try to take a more rigid, mathematical outlook but my years of gambling experience has left me sceptical of too rigid an approach. If the answers can be found mathematically, bookmakers will soon learn the right techniques too. With golf betting in particular, one needs to have a 'feel' for a course, or a tournament, or whether a player is 'overdue' a change of luck and a place payout.
This last point is the hardest thing to address, because nobody is immune to positive or negative thinking. When all is going well in gambling, its easy to be positive and that tends to produce good results. Likewise, the opposite is true. I'm still tearing myself apart over the penultimate two events, won by Lee Westwood and Martin Laird. Both were on my final shortlist, and both had been selected very recently. Ultimately though, both ever so slightly missed out on the final staking plan. Inevitably, one goes through the psychological torment of constantly re-assessing those decisions.
So what now? Its critically important not to panic. Largely, I think I'm doing the right things, and that they'll pay off in the long-term. All I can really say is that; I will continue to put in the hours, scour the formbook and apply these previously very successful strategies.
2009 WINNERS
NEDBANK CHALLENGE - HENRIK STENSON 7/1
OPEN DE ANDALUCIA - SOREN KJELDSEN 33/1
AP INVITATIONAL - TIGER WOODS 13/5
BALLANTINES C'SHIP - THONGCHAI JAIDEE 33/1
PLAYERS C'SHIP - HENRIK STENSON 50/1
BMW PGA C'SHIP - PAUL CASEY 16/1
ST JUDE CLASSIC - BRIAN GAY 35/1
BRITISH SENIORS OPEN - LOREN ROBERTS 20/1
BUICK OPEN - TIGER WOODS 15/8
WGC-BRIDGESTONE - TIGER WOODS 7/4
2009 RUNNERS-UP
MEMORIAL - JIM FURYK 25/1
SINGAPORE OPEN - ERNIE ELS 12/1
HONG KONG OPEN - FRANCESCO MOLINARI 45/1
DUNLOP PHOENIX - GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO 25/1
WORLD CUP - SPAIN 16/1
JOBURG OPEN - ANDREW MCLARDY 28/1
MERCEDES - ANTHONY KIM 9/1
ABU DHABI - MARTIN KAYMER 20/1
HEINEKEN - ROSS MCGOWAN 125/1
INDONESIAN OPEN - SIMON DYSON 20/1
INDONESIAN OPEN - ALEXANDER NOREN 25/1
AP INVITATIONAL - SEAN O'HAIR 33/1
PORTUGESE MASTERS - GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO 25/1
ST JUDE CLASSIC - DAVID TOMS 16/1
US OPEN - PHIL MICKELSON 20/1
TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP - DAVID TOMS 25/1
US BANK CHAMPIONSHIP - JOHN MALLINGER 33/1
BRITISH SENIORS OPEN - FRED FUNK 25/1
US SENIORS OPEN - GREG NORMAN 14/1
RENO-TAHOE OPEN - MARTIN LAIRD 66/1
KLM OPEN - PETER LAWRIE 66/1
BARCLAYS CLASSIC - ERNIE ELS 40/1
BARCLAYS CLASSIC - PADRAIG HARRINGTON 22/1
BMW CHAMPIONSHIP - JIM FURYK 25/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 9:47 AM
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