Harrington set for boost ahead of Augusta

This is always one of the trickiest weeks of the year for golf punters, sandwiched between the Players' Championship and the forthcoming US Masters. A world-class field always assemble at TPC Sugarloaf for the Bellsouth Classic, but there's always half a concern that players' minds are elsewhere. There's probably no good justification for that as this week's market leaders, Retief Goosen and Phil Mickelson have won the event three times in the last six years. The picture is further clouded though, by the fact that so many of the field had to endure the draining, nerve-racking experience of windy Sawgrass and the literally impossible greens we witnessed over the weekend.

Just what damage that experience might have had on some players' short-term confidence is anyone's guess. Aaron Oberholser, for instance, would have been a certain selection of mine had he not just hit 81 on Sunday, having led the tournament on his own on the 17th tee on Saturday. Goosen is another player I fear enormously here, on a course tailor-made for him and following a superb last 63 holes at Sawgrass. I'm almost certain to back Goose next week at Augusta but single-figure odds are just too short on this occasion. A safer strategy must be to side with players who would come into calculations anyway but are a little fresher having missed those two final rounds.

Conditions at Sugarloaf, should the wind blow as expected, tend to favour players used to chipping and putting on exposed greens. Naturally, the British, Irish and Australian players raised on such courses often come into their own here. Nobody fits the identikit of a Sugarloaf winner more than PADRAIG HARRINGTON, as two top-10s from three visits testifies. Pod also has a history of winning or being in contention the week before a Major, that fits a theory I have about him. Renowned for his work ethic on the range, Harrington has a tendency to peak just in time for the big event, only to get himself agitated at key moments in the Majors. The week before, though, we often see him relaxed and in peak-form. Missing the cut at Sawgrass, where he must have fancied his chances, may now work in his favour.

Moderate recent form can be the only justification for the 66/1 available on course specialist STEWART CINK. Cink clearly relishes the demands of Sugarloaf, having finished in the top-10 six times in the last 8 years. The last few weeks have been disappointing, but he had three top-15s at the start of the season. I'm sure we'll see a different player this week, on probably his best opportunity of the year. I've also got to include MATTHEW GOGGIN, who I've mentioned a couple of times this year at huge odds. A fortnight ago, when I'd overlooked him for the Honda Classic, the young Aussie only just missed out on the places and conditions aren't too dissimilar this week. Certainly, his form on windy, exposed Australian courses suggests he will go well this week so, aside a small each-way bet at 200/1 I suggest Goggin is worth a closer look for 2-balls and spreads.

The European Tour event, the Algarve Open, looks an absolute minefield for punters. A moderate field is headed by Nick Dougherty, who represents the class in the field along with Niclas Fasth and Bradley Dredge. None of those look particularly favoured by the short, narrow layout and I have a strong suspicion this could be won by a rank outsider.

Just a few small bets at decent prices looks the order of the day then. A fair strategy in this part of the world is to look for players from the region, who might feel more comfortable with the conditions, and three of my four selections are from Southern Europe. Firstly, though, England's DAVID LYNN looks the most likely player from the market leaders to produce his best form. Lynn has become a model of consistency lately with nine consecutive top-27 finishes, often in fields of greater depths. His chance looks extremely obvious on a course that he finished 5th 2 years ago.

Its high time Spain's JOSE-MANUEL LARA won again on the European Tour, with only a small win 8 years ago to his name. Much like Lynn, Lara is one of the most consistent players around without threatening to win nearly often enough. Only a few months ago, Lara finished 2nd and 6th in consecutive weeks in Spain. Back now in his favourite part of the world, and having finished close 9th here in 2004, 50/1 looks a nice price for a player bound to be there or thereabouts come the weekend.

I was also very surprised to see Lara's countryman GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO available at three figures back in Southern Europe. Rookie of the Year in 2005, this prodigy has been likened in some (excitable) quarters to a young Seve Ballesteros. Whatever the merits of that comparison, he has looked an exciting prospect in similar standard European Tour events, most notably when showing a mature temperament to win the Dutch Open. That win came at Hilversum, a short, narrow course not entirely dissimilar to Le Meridien Penina. Finally, have a small each-way bet on Italian EMANUELLE CANONICA. I never thought I'd see the day I'd tip this guy as he'd always looked a bottler but he put all that behind him with victory in last season's Italian Open. Canonica showed a liking for this place with consecutive top-10s on his last two visits, and has some good recent form with 9th place behind Tiger and co in Dubai.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

ALGARVE OPEN

1pt ew DAVID LYNN @ 28/1 (SKYBET, BET365)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO @ 100/1 (LADBROKES, CORALS)
0.5pts ew EMANUELLE CANONICA @ 80/1 (BETDIRECT, BET365)

BELLSOUTH CLASSIC

1pt ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 25/1 (SPORTING ODDS, SKYBET)
1pt ew STEWART CINK @ 66/1 (HILLS, LADBROKES, BET DIRECT)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 200/1 (SPORTING ODDS)

2006 STATS: (-106pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts