Ryder Cup Betting Preview

Its been a long, hard year on the golf betting front, but at last there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. A couple of moderate wins over the past fortnight have reduced the annual deficit, but more importantly Paul Casey stands on the brink of landing a 33/1 touch in the Order of Merit after his victory in the World Matchplay. He's no certainty just yet as there's still three lucrative events to go in which a victory or pair of victories could bring several players into the argument beyond Casey and David Howell. But I'm confident enough to resist having any savers just yet. Howell was struggling with back and neck injuries last week and could have his work cut out earning the 300,000 Euros he needs to have any chance of overhauling Casey. As for the others, they can be guarded against if and when they get closer to the target.

And of course the outcome of this week's Ryder Cup will no doubt play a big part in the struggle to maintain an annual profit. I'm going in heavily here, and confidently expect a win for Europe. Prior to the last Ryder Cup when the outsiders Europe hammered the US, every Ryder Cup in living memory had been a toss of a coin affair at some stage on the final day. If the norm were to resume, prices of just under Evens on a European win would be no more than fair, but there are several reasons to think that their price should be significantly shorter. Firstly, it is legitimate to argue that the reasons those matches were so close was because the Europeans consistently performed beyond the expectations of the formbook. There is consensus that Europe have mastered the art of building the kind of camaraderie and team ethic more effectively than the Americans, who have often resembled a bunch of individuals. The statistic that identifies this better than any is a massive 23 point aggregate lead held by Europe in the pairs matches since 1983. While I'm sure the US will be determined to erase the memories of 2004 under what appears to be a shrewd captain in Tom Lehman, there is no reason to suggest Team Europe will be any less formidable.

The US have consistently started as favourites in Ryder Cups, as a consequence of the superior records of their players in strokeplay tournaments. For the first time this simply isn't the case.
Whilst the US do boast the world's best three players in Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk, their side also includes several distinctly moderate players. Brett Wetterich strikes me as the type of player who we won't hear about for another 5 years until he pops up at 500/1 in a PGA Tour event. At least he did prove his 'bottle' in winning twice earlier in the year, but I could think of at least 25 similar US players of the same standard who didn't qualify for the team. Zach Johnson and Vaughan Taylor are decent prospects, but completely unproven and inexperienced outside the US. The same comments apply to JJ Henry, though I'd rate him below that promising pair. Chad Campbell back to his best would be expected to play a leading role, but has shown no hint of form for months. Even pivotal players like Scott Verplank, David Toms and Chris Dimarco aren't in form. Woods seems certain to resume his successful Presidents Cup partnership with Furyk in a bid to improve on a dire record in this event, but even here this strategy has the danger of putting all their eggs in one basket.

In stark contrast Europe have few, if any, serious worries about form. Paul McGinley and Darren Clarke probably have the most to prove, but are still strongly fancied to produce in Ireland. When this venue was used for the European Open in July, wind and rain made scoring very tough and the course penal for anyone straying off line. Bad weather is always expected to suit the Europeans anyway, but if the forecast is as expected, this really isn't the ideal scenario for inexperienced Americans used to target golf who've rarely played outside their own country. Even more so if they're struggling for form. Chad Campbell is the only player bar Woods on the US side who excels in tough conditions, but he comes here in the worst form of anyone.

So here's the betting strategy. I suggest backing Europe to win the match at a shade of odds-on, and on the handicap giving away 1.5 shots, alongside a buy of their points supremacy at 0.9 on the spreads. If as expected the Europeans win comfortably that should yield a decent profit. But its also well worth laying whichever side when they have built a lead and are strongly odds-on with a view to trading out for a profit when the situation reverses. Prior to the 2004 thrashing of Oakland Hills, that strategy would have yielded a healthy profit in every Ryder Cup going back to 1983.

The top team scorer markets normally offer a bit of value. Only a handful of players can be expected to play in all 5 potential matches, and its safe to discount all of those who are unlikely to get more than 3 matches as the winner can be expected to accumulate at least 3.5 points. In previous matches, when Europe had an easily defined core of superstars who could be expected to dominate the team selections in fourballs and foursomes. Nowadays though, the side is so strong in depth that its not that easy to see who to leave out. There are some obvious pairings we can probably identify early. SERGIO GARCIA has formed brilliant partnerships in the past with Lee Westwood in fourballs and Luke Donald in foursomes. Donald in turn has partnered Casey to a World Cup triumph, so perhaps they might team up in fourballs. I have a suspicion that Colin Montgomerie will again be paired with Padraig Harrington. Garcia, Donald and Harrington look set to play all five, with the Spaniard again looking the best bet at 6/1. Sergio has a Ryder Cup record to die for, winning 10 points from three appearances and only losing one from ten pairs matches. He has the perfect matchplay temperament and seems to come alive in this team format, and if conditions are as bad as expected his superb long game should prosper.

With the US team. it does look a little easier to identify a core. I would imagine Tom Lehman is planning to use Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson, Chris Dimarco and STEWART CINK in all five sets of matches. The reasons I'm going with Cink are firstly the double-figure price which considerably beats the price of the other 4, and secondly form. Whereas team-mates Campbell, Johnson, Wetterich, Dimarco, Toms and Verplank have only five top-10 finishes since May between the six of them, Cink comes here on the back of four top-5 finishes in his last eight starts. Another advantage he has over so many of his rivals is a proven ability to play in fairly bad weather. If the Woods/Furyk partnership were only to win 2 points out of a potential 4, 12/1 on an in-form, probable ever-present like Cink would look massive each-way value.

Good Luck!

RYDER CUP

20pts win EUROPE @ 9/10 (HILLS. 1.97 ON BETFAIR)
8pts EUROPE (-1.5pts) @ 11/8 (BETFAIR)
BUY EUROPE/USA POINTS SUPREMACY 10pts @ 0.9 (SPREADEX)

TOP EUROPEAN SCORER

5pts SERGIO GARCIA @ 6/1 (BETFAIR, BLUESQ, VICTOR CHANDLER, SPORTING ODDS)

TOP US SCORER

3pts ew STEWART CINK @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-72.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Betting previews for HSBC World Matchplay/84 Lumber Classic/Madrid Open

As anticipation builds just a week away from the Ryder Cup, I'm pleasantly surprised to see three televised high quality golf tournaments starting on Thursday. Normally we might have expected to see next week's contestants taking a week off to fine tune their games, but thankfully most have chosen to do so on the course. The highlight of the week is undoubtably the HSBC World Matchplay from Wentworth, where Tiger Woods bids for a seventh consecutive tournament victory, while Ernie Els aims for his seventh win in that particular event.

Those two golfing gods can't both reach the final as the draw has come out extremely lop-sided. As well as Tiger and Ernie, the bottom half includes the new world no.2 and weekend winner Jim Furyk, home favourite Luke Donald, course specialist Angel Cabrera and world-class Tim Clark. Clearly reaching the final from this half will be no cakewalk for Woods as any of those six are realistic finalists. Even the greatest can't win every week, and this draw represents a great chance to lay Tiger at a very skinny 6/4. I find it hard to envisage how a running accumulator on each match would yield less than that price, but also think he will enjoy no significant advantage on the claustrophobic West Course.

Clearly the best betting strategy here is to focus on the immeasurably easier top-half of the draw. The top players here are Retief Goosen and ADAM SCOTT. Goose has a very indifferent record at Wentworth in both strokeplay and matchplay so, especially as recent form has been below par, is readily opposed. His first-round opponent Paul Casey will be a tough enough nut to crack before he reaches the big guns. Alternatively, Scott comes here in peak form, and has a far more straightforward first-round opponent in Mike Weir. In the States, Scott to beat Weir would be far from obvious, but the Canadian's record in this event is poor. Coming straight off a win in Singapore, he looks very much the one to beat in this half of the draw.

Without doubt, the weakest quarter is the top one. David Howell is the shortest price but he too remains one very much to oppose in my book. Despite nearly winning in Germany a fortnight ago, his driving was all over the place again. That will be severely penalised here, especially against first-round opponent Colin Montgomerie who has always claimed to feel more confident at Wentworth than any other venue. But the best value lies in backing both of their potential second round opponents. The winner will play either defending champ MICHAEL CAMPBELL or SIMON KHAN. Cambo, a course specialist, starts heavy favourite for that match and is expected to win before putting up a stout defence, but Khan should also be backed at simply the wrong each-way odds. Priced at 125/1 to win the event, Khan's place odds are 62.5/1, when the accumulative odds on winning the necessary three matches is no more than 30/1. Hopefully by backing those three in the top-half, a situation will arise where we are either guaranteed a finalist, or finding the required saver is easy.

The Madrid Open looks the biggest conundrum of the week as far as betting is concerned. The market is headed by Ryder Cuppers Padraig Harrington, Darren Clarke and Jose-Maria Olazabal. It would take a brave man to be expecting 100% concentration on the task in hand from any of them, and the two Irishmen are hardly prolific anyway. I could see an argument for backing a determined Thomas Bjorn, anxious to make a fool out of Ian Woosnam after being left out of the Ryder Cup side. But, for me, his ridiculous outburst against the captain just confirmed that his temperament leaves a lot to be desired, and makes him a nightmare for punters.

With doubts surrounding the top-4, there might be a smidgeon of value around on some of the players who didn't miss Ryder Cup qualification by a mile. The three I like are IAN POULTER, NICLAS FASTH and ANTONY WALL. Poulter isn't huge at 20/1, but he is long overdue a win and has been playing consistently well for months. His attacking game is expected to suit the course perfectly.

Fasth is the best value for me. He is quite a regular winner considering his moderate place in the world rankings, especially in this part of the world. Niclas' last two starts in Spain have yielded a win in the national Open and seventh place in the prestigious Volvo Masters. As for Wall, he's been playing consistently well without winning all summer. Sooner or later things are going to drop his way as long as he continues the good form, and a second win is surely around the corner.

Its a good job Tiger has opted for Wentworth rather than the 84 Lumber Classic of Pennsylvania because he would have probably ended it as a betting spectacle very quickly. There is a marked advantage to the longer hitters, who can really open their shoulders on this course. Last year's winner Jason Gore fitted the profile perfectly with his huge-hitting, attacking game. In 2004, VIJAY SINGH won comfortably and must come right into calculations again with Ryder Cuppers David Toms and Chris Dimarco the only players from the world's top-30 in opposition. In the last event where big-hitters had an advantage, the Deutsche Bank a fortnight ago, Singh lost nothing in defeat to the unbeatable Woods. Last week's effort was only moderate, but I never thought he was suited by Hamilton. At the same price with less opposition and much more suitable conditions he must be included in the staking plan.

My other four selections all fit the profile of a Lumber winner. RORY SABBATINI, RYAN MOORE, CAMILIO VILLEGAS and JB HOLMES can all hit the ball a country mile when they want to. Sabbatini's early-season form took a bit of a dive but 5th place at the weekend confirms he's back in form and should be raring to go on a course where he's made the top-10 previously. Villegas was tied with Sabbatini at Hamilton, the latest top effort in a fine first season on tour. I'm sticking with the Colombian until he delivers, as I think he's a good a prospect as there is on tour.

Moore is another top prospect enjoying a fine first year. Prior to missing the cut in Canada, he had notched two consecutive top-12 finishes, most notably after a slow start at the USPGA. Moore is another one worth persisting with at attractive odds on suitable golf courses until he wins. Finally, Holmes is the biggest price of the lot despite already winning on Tour in spectacular style. Since that breakthrough Scottsdale win results have been mixed, but Holmes hasn't disgraced himself and has the length to turn this course into a pitch and putt affair.

Good Luck!

HSBC WORLD MATCHPLAY

LAY TIGER WOODS 10pts @ 2.6 (BETFAIR)
4pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 12/1 (BET365, TOTE, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 22/1 (SPORTING ODDS, 25/1 EXPEKT)
0.5pts ew SIMON KHAN @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

MADRID OPEN

2pts ew IAN POULTER @ 20/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES)
2pts ew NICLAS FASTH @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew ANTONY WALL @ 40/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET)

84 LUMBER CLASSIC OF PENNSYLLVANIA

5pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 7/1 (LADBROKES, BETFAIR)
1pt ew RORY SABBATINI @ 40/1 (BLUESQ, LADBROKES, CORALS, HILLS)
1pt ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 50/1 (BETFRED, LADBROKES, CORALS, HILLS)
1pt ew RYAN MOORE @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 66/1 CORALS)
0.5pts ew JB HOLMES @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-104.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

European Masters/Canadian Open Betting Previews

A slightly smaller package of outright golf bets this week. . First to Crans-Sur-Sierre in Switzerland for the European Masters. A quality field used to turn up for this one, but now we should be thankful that SERGIO GARCIA has a house nearby because he is the only player from the world's top-50 in attendance.

Played in rarefied air 5000ft above sea level, the ball travels further than usual on an already short course. The course's main defences are the rough, and the wierd, saucer-shaped greens. The result is a big advantage to the best players who hit it long and straight, and who possess good short games to get near the tricky pin positions. In all of these respects, defending champion Garcia is in a class of his own here. Before winning last year, he blew a great winning chance behind Luke Donald in 2004. There is nobody in Donald's class in opposition this week. The closest challengers are Miguel-Angel Jiminez and Simon Dyson. Jiminez at his best would be a serious contender, but has been out of form for months. Dyson holds the best recent form, but as a consequence his price is plenty short enough.

The PGA Tour moves on to Canada for their national Open. The only time in recent years the event was held at the old-fashioned Hamilton course, it was won by the unfathomable Bob Tway at what seems like a very short 80/1. A further look at the top-10 confirms that accuracy is very much the order of the day on a tough course. With Tiger giving the rest a chance by having a week off, many will look to Vijay Singh after his resurgent showing at the Deutsche Bank. I'm not falling for that old chestnut though - he'll probably win now but I've had enough of losing money on Vijay in the last year. It would come as no surprise to me at all if he slipped back into the poor form of the previous month. Instead, I've got a team of six to go into battle with.

I've said several times recently that JIM FURYK is now the closest challenger to Woods and Mickelson. On a course like this that rewards accuracy, I'd go further and suggest he's second only to Woods. The only problem is his career-long tendency to finish 2nd or 3rd. I don't think there's anything wrong with his temperament, so put it down to the fact that ultra-consistent players will obviously miss out more often than they win. He must enter the staking plan here at 8/1.

You won't go far wrong backing home players in their national Opens, and MIKE WEIR has a blindingly obvious chance here. He lost nothing in defeat at the USPGA, and deserves a win after a very consistent season. Top-10 here 2 years ago and desperate to please his public, I can't see the accurate left-hander being far away on a course that suits.

I'm also giving one more chance to ZACH JOHNSON, who must surely deliver soon. Again, his accurate game should be rewarded on this golf course, and 50/1 looks a very fair each-way punt. Johnson will win plenty during his career, and is overdue. And WOODY AUSTIN could go close here at a nice 80/1. Austin, a former rookie of the year and twice a PGA Tour winner, has been playing his best golf for a while, racking up excellent tee-to-green statistics and a series of high finishes. He's prospered well on narrow tracks with small greens in the past, so these odds must be worth a go.

Completing the staking plan, I have two Aussies at three figure odds. Both relish tough, old-fashioned golf courses and the test they provide. The first, STEPHEN LEANEY, is a multiple winner around the world and long overdue his first PGA Tour win. The 2003 US Open runner-up has been in fine fettle lately, making his last five cuts with two top-10s and a top-20. 100/1 looks big. And at a massive 250/1, lets give another chance to MATTHEW GOGGIN. Since a highly creditable runner-up placing at the Western Open in July, Goggin has missed all his cuts and the price is back to where it was before he showed such promise. That doesn't surprise me, as he's never been consistent, but time after time he has shown his best on the toughest courses.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

EUROPEAN MASTERS

8pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 5/1 (PREMIERBET, BETFRED, PADDY POWER)

CANADIAN OPEN

5pts win JIM FURYK @ 8/1 (LADBROKES, PREMIERBET, TOTE)
2pts ew MIKE WEIR @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 22/1 WITH VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 50/1 (BLUESQ, LADBROKES)
1pt ew WOODY AUSTIN @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew STEPHEN LEANEY @ 100/1 (BLUESQ, HILLS)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 250/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-125.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1