Lara can claim long overdue success

Bad runs at gambling can be an infuriating business, no more so than in golf. In recent weeks, my weekly selections seem to have either hit the woodwork (like Paul Casey), or in some cases like David Howell and Greg Owen, suffered terrible stage fright. The crucial thing to remember is that, because golfers are competing in fields of 150+, its very easy to go on a long losing run and very easy to turn it around. In both the previous years in which I've been doing this, I've managed to turn a profit with a relatively small number of winners.

With decent prize money and fields set for my favoured European Tour over the next couple of months, I'm confident a winning run is imminent. I was somewhat disappointed though to see that this week's Spanish Open has actually attracted an even weaker field than some of the Asian Tour fare of recent weeks. MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ starts favourite for the second week in a row, at a slightly bigger price due to a poor show in Thailand, but this time there is no Casey, Stenson and Dougherty in opposition. Question marks surround all of the market leaders. Jiminez's main rival in the betting is OOM champion Colin Montgomerie. Monty's quote is purely a result of his third place at the weekend, his first form of any description for a while. Certainly not justification to taking 10/1, especially considering the wind being a likely factor.

The course at San Roque club is yet another new one, though expected to be fairly similar to the short, narrow but exposed one on which only ten players broke par last year. Not the type of course one would normally consider favourable to big-hitters like Charl Schwartzel and Ricardo Gonzalez, thought the recent Euro Tour form of Gonzalez does warrant respect. Thomas Bjorn is always dangerous and played well on occasions last week, but is too unreliable and is showing signs of his notorious wayward temperament. The other obvious contenders, NICLAS FASTH and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano have more solid chances. If Castano hadn't won last week, I would definitely have tipped him this week on home turf but back-to-back wins are rare, especially at his age.

With those question marks, Jiminez might be expected to turn his home advantage to effect. Against him is a hectic globetrotting schedule, and last week's disappointing effort. Alternatively, a repeat of his previous performance at the Masters, or earlier efforts in Qatar and Dubai, would probably win this event by at least 5 shots. In the absence of alternatives, I must have a saver. The one obvious contender who its hard to make a case against is Fasth. Unlike most of the others, he swerved the Far East and hasn't played since a top-10 in Portugal which was better than the result suggests. Niclas often goes well in this part of the world, and is overdue a victory. The course is perfectly suitable, as he usually plays very well in the wind.

Though his price is not very reflective of the fact he has yet to win on Tour, I can't see JOSE-MANUEL LARA being too far away at this level on home turf at 33/1. Lara must surely win, or at least challenge strongly soon. His game from tee to green is too consistent not to. This course, along with home support, should play right to his strengths. I have to be honest and say it would come as no shock whatsoever to me if a huge priced winner popped up. Looking through the field at the 66/1 - 150/1 section though, none of them make any particular appeal, so instead I'm having one small, speculative punt on 250/1 shot FREDERICK WIDMARK. As I've said before, this Swede is one of the better recruits from the Challenge Tour, and he knows how to win when in contention. Also in his favour is a good record over the years in the Meditteranean region.

The US Tour event is much more attractive from a stars point of view, with Phil Mickelson making his first appearance since winning the Masters, along with Retief Goosen. Once you get beyond those two, out of form David Toms, Chris Dimarco and Padraig Harrington, there isn't a great deal of strength in depth. Stuart Appleby bids to follow up on last weekend's facile success, but again the rarity of back to back winners becomes an issue. Stephen Ames has very solid claims but two world-class efforts at Sawgrass and Augusta means Ames is at least half the odds than he would have been if this were played a month ago.

Mickelson is the man I just can't get right. For the many years when he seemed to possess no golfing brain whatsoever, opposing Lefty on hard courses and the climaxes to Major championships had become a decent source of regular income. I have a theory that, connected in some way to the years of massive hostility directed from me towards my television screen when he was playing, now Phil is the real deal circumstances will conspire to prevent me from winning anything on him. I'll say clearly what I've said time and again for the last 2 years. Now he has learnt the art of self-control and matured as a golfer, Mickelson is pretty much level with Tiger Woods. I had him lined up for a bet at Augusta for months when double-figure prices were widely available, but a runaway win at the Bellsouth Classic put paid to that plan. There seems little point in chasing losses at less than 4/1, when he will also be the subject of disproportionate crowd and media attention at English Turn this week.

Better value lies in trying to find some each-way value. I'd much rather take 20/1 about a top-five place on FREDDY JACOBSEN for instance. We're still waiting for the Swede to make the expected big impact in the States that he promised in his last year in Europe and a handful of US events. I'm sure it will happen soon as Jacobsen certainly possesses the ability. English Turn, with its emphasis on quality iron play, looks one of the most likely venues for such an emergence so I'm prepared to overlook a bad week in Houston and no previous course experience. Three of Freddie's last five efforts have been solid enough so he's not in bad form and believe me, once he wins we will not see 80/1 again in an event of this stature for a long time.
Similarly, 40/1 looks decent each-way value for the promising ZACH JOHNSON. A multiple winner on the Nationwide Tour, and a winner in his rookie season on the PGA Tour, Zach is long overdue. His 2006 form is rock solid, with the highlights being a distant runner-up to Mickelson at Sugarloaf, and 3rd place at the World Matchplay. On each occasion, Johnson has impressed with his accuracy and iron play, useful qualities here. In fact, speaking ahead, if Zach remains in consistent form, he is a certainty to be included in my staking plan for next month's US Open.

The other European who I am slowly running out of patience with is JUSTIN ROSE. Rose looked a certain winner in 2006 on the evidence of last summer, and of course from Euro Tour form that now seems age-old. Rose was a very impressive 5th on his debut at English Turn last year, so should fancy his chances. Again, we've got to overlook three consecutive poor efforts in his last three events, but the previous top-10 at Bay Hill suggests not everything is wrong with Justin's game at the moment. At 80/1, I can't afford to leave him out.

SPANISH OPEN

2pts ew NICLAS FASTH @ 20/1 (BETFRED, PADDY POWER, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts win MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 11/1 ON BETFAIR)
0.5pts ew FREDERICK WIDMARK @ 250/1(SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER)

ZURICH CLASSIC OF NEW ORLEANS

1.5pts ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew FREDERICK JACOBSEN @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 80/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-125.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

Stick with Singh at new Houston venue

Guesswork is once again the order of the day with another brand new course on show for the Shell Houston Open. David Toms was a consultant involved in its design but its far from clear he's done himself any favours with the course measuring a mammoth 7457 yards. Driving distance and greens in regulations look like the important stats, as there are plenty of hazards around. Everything therefore seems to favour clear market leader VIJAY SINGH, who bids for his fourth win in the last five runnings of the event.

Despite remaining a model of consistency, and being seen to best advantage on tough courses, 9/2 does look rather short at first for a player who hasn't won yet this year but looking down the field its hard to see who's going to beat him. Toms and Mike Weir don't look long enough off the tee, Irish raiders Padraig Harrington and Darren Clarke haven't shown nearly enough to warrant support in the States. Bearing in mind his extra motivation, and the fact that even on bad weeks in stronger company Vijay is clear odds-on to make the top-10, the Fijian has to be included in the staking plan, though perhaps the best value is in finding outsiders whose place terms are more than double his win odds.

It was a timely reminder of the strength in depth of the PGA Tour that a serious long-term prospect Aaron Baddeley could win his maiden event at huge odds, being universally overlooked by tipsters on a course that in hindsight played right to his strengths. Besides Singh, I suspect the most likely winner will be one of the many up and coming youngsters of Tour newcomers in opposition. Consistent Lucas Glover caught my attention but his odds are far too short for someone who, though clearly decent, doesn't strike me as a future Major winner. Monster hitting Bubba Watson could come into it if he can find enough fairways but for me the best prospect of the lot is Colombian CAMILIO VILLEGAS. This guy had looked a serious prospect on the Nationwide Tour and in the odd event in Australasia, but nobody expected him to make such a quick impact at the highest level. To come 3rd in the TPC at Sawgrass is quite a feat for a rookie, but I was even more impressed by his showing as runner-up to Tiger at Doral. On a similarly long course, Villegas traded blows with the world's greatest on equal terms and most importantly, never looked like shirking under pressure.

Mansfield's GREG OWEN has nowhere near the long-term potential of Villegas, but he has taken to the PGA Tour like a duck to water and warrants respect on tough courses. During an average career in Europe, Owen was always a class act from tee to green, and his stats in America confirm nothing has changed. 4 of his last 5 starts over here have been rock-solid efforts, so he must have each-way chances amongst a slightly weaker field on a course that suits.

The course being used for this week's BMW Asian Open in Thailand is also a long one, and previous history here suggests the Europeans will dominate. There was a considerably stronger European contingent set to play here, until Luke Donald and David Howell pulled out. Of those remaining, although I'm sure there will be a couple of big-priced players on the leaderboard, I've narrowed the likely winner down to 7. Of those 7, Henrik Stenson and Miguel-Angel Jiminez are left out on the basis of their price. Jiminez won here in 2004 and played well at Augusta, but all of this is factored into his price. 12/1 about Stenson in such company could look absolutely huge in a few months if the talented Swede gets back on track, but he's now put in three poor shows in succession.

There's no doubt in my mind who the best value is, England's PAUL CASEY. Ignore a poor effort here last year as his game was in turmoil, because this winter in Asia he has been by far the most consistent player with 1 win and 3 top-10s from five starts. Casey was right in the hunt again on Sunday until a poorly timed water visit on the back 9. He will relish the length of the course and could do some serious damage on the par-5s. Very similar comments apply to NICK DOUGHERTY, whose price is surprisingly big at 22/1. Certainly he hasn't looked half the player of Jiminez in recent months, though its clear he does owe me a few quid as I've probably tipped him a dozen times in the last year. With golf betting, you have to remain loyal when you think a player is a winner waiting to happen as the rewards will come eventually, and at nice odds.

These two make up half the team of IG's English Hotshots, which looks a very cheap buy at 34. The other two, David Lynn and Simon Dyson, both have claims as long as they can overcome psycholigical demons. Lynn from a very poor finish when primed to win at the weekend, and Dyson from this venue 2 years ago when he blew a six-shot lead on the final day. Otherwise, there's no reason to suggest they can't at least help towards getting the cut bonus, with Dougherty and Casey doing the main scoring.

For my other two outright selections, I'm choosing mainland European players. THOMAS BJORN is always a threat in this part of the world. True, you never know if this fragile character is about to self-implode but Bjorn is world-class on his day and oozes confidence in Asia. Recent form is better than it first appears from form figures too. He finished with a cracking 69 at Augusta to finish 32nd, with only Jiminez from this field ahead of him, and prior to that had been in contention at Sawgrass for the first two days. Finally, RAPHAEL JACQUELIN looks primed for a big week after working off some rust in his game with a solid down the field effort in China. Jacquelin is another who always fancies his chances in these co-sanctioned Asian events, and must be considered at 40/1.

BMW ASIAN OPEN

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 14/1 (BLUESQ, CORALS)
2pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 22/1 (SKYBET)
1.5pts ew RAPHAEL JACQUELIN @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

BUY ENGLISH HOTSHOTS @ 34 (IGSPORT)

SHELL HOUSTON OPEN

6pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 9/2 (STAN JAMES, VCBET)
1.5pts ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew GREG OWEN @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-101pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

N.B. ALEX CEJKA WAS A NON-RUNNER LAST WEEK

Ogilvy can master Harbour Town Links

Firstly, I must apologise for this message being sent out a day later than usual. After a marathon trading day on Sunday after the Masters suffered rain delays, and with 17 days of hardcore snooker trading ahead, I needed a couple of days off. Inevitably, this does mean I've missed the best prices about some of the main contenders.

There are two tournaments this week, yet another overnight job from China and the regular PGA Tour fixture at Harbour Town Links, the Heritage Classic. As you can probably tell, I'm not exactly brimming with enthusiasm about the Volvo China Open, which is played on a brand new Nick Faldo designed course so we have no previous form to work from. My strategy of backing the favourites against a weak field in such events has had no luck at all recently, with NICK DOUGHERTY and David Howell blowing winning positions. This week's class acts are Dougherty, HENRIK STENSON and Paul Casey.

With no course form, I'm reliant on others like the Racing Post's Jeremy Chapman to describe the course characteristics. He thinks it will be a thinking man's golf course and one might presume that Faldo would design such a course. From that perspective, it doesn't seem particularly like the sort of course that a huge-hitting birdie machine like Casey would excel at, but he still commands enormous respect due to a terrific record in this part of the world. Stenson has to bounce back from two missed cuts amongst immeasurably superior fields at the Masters and Bellsouth Classic, but his form over the last year is so superior to anyone else in the field that he just has to enter calculations as at least a saver. At the best price of three, Dougherty has to be backed again as surely another win is around the corner. Nick may also benefit from missing the Masters last week, so there's no reason why he won't continue his excellent recent form.

Chapman also has it right, I think, about ALEX CEJKA, but because he has tipped him I'm afraid the price has shortened from 50/1 to 40/1. No matter, the German is always a threat at this level and still looks a cracking each-way bet.

In contrast, the American event is an absolute cracker - one of the few occasions on the PGA Tour where they play a links course. Naturally, this suits those who have refined the art of links golf while simultaneously meaning we can write off several players.

No better example of the importance of course form is DAVIS LOVE, whose record at Harbour Town is nothing short of amazing. DL3 has won this event five time, with four top-5 finishes and three other top-10s! Many pundits question whether Love is a player in terminal decline, but I'm not convinced. True, he's not such an obvious Major contender anymore, but he is still capable of world class golf. Less than 2 months ago, Love won 5 matches before succumbing in the World Matchplay final. 3 weeks ago, he opened up with a brilliant 65 at Sawgrass, only to miss the cut in shocking style. I place that disaster down to a disappointing temperamental reaction on a tough day rather than any evidence of him suddenly being a bad golfer, so it doesn't deter me from a bet back on his favourite course, where I'm sure Davis is determined to add to that awesome record.

Love's conquerer that day, GEOFF OGILVY, is surprisingly still available at 28/1 as it seems nobody else has tipped him. I've been going on about Ogilvy for about 5 years now without ever really profitting from his success but perhaps this is the week. Lets look at Ogilvy's form in the last year. As well as the career highlight WGC victory, he won his first PGA Tour event last summer, and his last three Major performances have been 5th at the British Open, 6th at the USPGA and another rock solid 16th at Augusta at the weekend. Straight after the win at La Costa, Geoff followed up with 2nd place at the Honda Classic. As an Aussie, he's comfortable with this sort of links golf and nearly won this event two years ago when a far less confident player than now.

Several other players look worth opposing after the Masters. Ernie Els is favourite, and is the best links player of them all, but struggled badly on Sunday and is apparently still suffering some negative reaction from the knee injury. Clearly, he can't be backed with confidence so soon after playing 27 holes badly on the same day. Chad Campbell has little form here, and might well suffer an immediate reaction to four days right in contention at Augusta. Stewart Cink has plenty of form here and just had his best weekend in ages, but his price is ridiculously short on all other recent form. Jose Maria Olazabal has now been right in the thick of it for three consecutive weeks and may need a rest.

Then there are players who must be fancied on this course but are such rare winners that we're better off backing them in speciality bets. Nick O'Hern and Scott Verplank fit this definition. Bay Hill winner Rod Pampling is also in fine form, but his price is nothing to get excited about. Under the circumstances, the man to beat this week is probably JIM FURYK. He has exactly the right profile of a Heritage winner, and seems to be getting better with every year, finishing second last year without ever threatening to win. Furyk must rate an each-way saver.

Finally, this looks a great opportunity for JUSTIN ROSE to finally land his first PGA Tour victory. A cracking links player famous for his exploits in the British Open as an amateur, Rose finished 7th on his course debut two years ago. 8th place three starts ago at Bay Hill was a fine effort, so he can be forgiven two missed cuts at Sawgrass and Sugarloaf since.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

VOLVO CHINA OPEN

3pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 14/1 (BETDIRECT, LADBROKES, SKYBET)
4pts win HENRIK STENSON @ 15/2 (SKYBET)
1pt ew ALEX CEJKA @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

VERIZON HERITAGE CLASSIC

3pts ew GEOFF OGILVY @ 28/1 (STAN JAMES, BETFRED)
2pts ew DAVIS LOVE @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew JIM FURYK @ 14/1 (TOTE)
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-84pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

One last chance for 'On Fire' Maguire

One of my favourite sporting and gambling events of the year, the 888.com World Snooker Championship, starts at Sheffield on Saturday. Its hard to overstate the importance of the next 17 days for snooker fans, as these days we are deprived for all but about 9 weeks of the year. As the status of snooker has declined in recent years, perversely it has become more unpredictable and therefore entertaining. Long gone are the days of facile Davis or Hendry wins as most tournaments are wide-open affairs, a point hammered home last year when 150/1 shot Shaun Murphy became the first unseeded winner since 1979.

The indifferent form of so many top players this season means such outsiders cannot be ruled out. In fact, as far as betting on the outright market is concerned, the route to profit might actually not involve finding the winner. The draw is so lop-sided that it should pay to follow some decent priced players who have fairly straightforward tasks to reach the latter stages, before having the necessary savers at that time. For example the two players most likely to win the event, Ronnie O'Sullivan and John Higgins, are scheduled to meet as early as the quarter-final, presuming Higgins gets past double world champ Mark Williams, and thats before we estimate the chances of a dangerous floater like Ryan Day who also shares this top-quality quarter. The most sensible thing to do in the circumstances is leave them to carve each other up, while focussing on other areas of the draw.

The weakest quarter is probably the top section containing defending champion Murphy. Despite generally retaining cracking form all season, that triumph remains Murphy's only ranking title, and he has history against him here as no player has ever successfully defended their first title at the Crucible. His prohibitive odds reflect an apparently straightforward opening couple of matches against James Wattana, and then Steve Davis or Andy Hicks. At his best, Murphy would have little trouble with those games, but I can see him surrendering the championship in a potentially epic quarter final against 2001 champion PETER EBDON. I'm perfectly happy to overlook some disappointing results for Ebdon this year, as he comes right into his own over these longer, pressure cooker matches. As clearly the second best player in this quarter, he makes plenty of each-way appeal at 33/1, particularly with place terms of half the odds to reach the final.

Ebdon's second-round opponent will be the winner of the first week's most interesting matches - JIMMY WHITE versus David Gray. Both players need to win this match to stay in the top-32, which in Jimmy's case practically means saving his career. Both have been woefully out of form, but I strongly fancy White to produce the goods now it is desperately required. Year after year, Jimmy comes to the Crucible and at least puts up a decent showing for the fans in his opening match. I've no doubt he will be prepared for the match, which is usually enough for a natural talent like White to fend off limited players. Also, I understand these two have been practice partners over the years, and White holds a big psychological edge. There's a part of me that wants to back the Whirlwind each-way at 150/1 as he could improve as the tournament goes on, but its safer to back the first round match and take it from there.

So, I reckon either Murphy, Ebdon or at a push, White, will reach the semis where they will face the winner of another very tough quarter to call. Ken Doherty, three times a finalist here, is probably the one to beat here on the basis of a very consistent season, but the draw is far from easy. The Irishman's first match is against the most dangerous non-seed, Barry Hawkins, and then is scheduled to play another Crucible specialist, Matthew Stevens in the last-16. Again, the best strategy is to avoid these players until we know who has emerged. Instead, for my second selection in the top-half of the draw, I've just got to stay loyal to STEPHEN MAGUIRE. As I write this, I can hear the laughter of snooker afficionados that anybody could tip Maguire after such a poor season, but there is some method behind my madness.

The last time I tipped Maguire, at the Benson and Hedges Masters, he responded by producing arguably the most abject display by a professional player in a live match, losing 6-0 to an out-of-sorts Stephen Lee and registering a highest break of 23. His form in the Premier League was equally dire, and there was another first-round defeat in the last event in China. But lets rewind one year. Maguire came to the Crucible last year provisionally No.3 in the world and defending UK champ, tipped by everyone to be World No 1 sooner or later. He then lost a classic opener 10-9 to O'Sullivan, but left with a lofty reputation very much intact. I was, and still am, convinced that when in form there is no more devastating break-builder alive. Amongst the various losses this year, there have been some glimpses of form. He looked set for a big run at the UK before, in Maguire's words, "Steve Davis played like God" to win the last three frames. In Malta too, he looked in good nick only to lose the deciding frame of a fine match to Doherty. I'm hoping that Maguire is well prepared for Sheffield, because if he brings his A game, he has two fairly easy matches in which to find some form and confidence before taking on the big guns. It can only be speculative, and cannot really be justified from a value perspective, but I still recommend an interest at 16/1.

There is another uncompetitive quarter in the bottom-half of the draw, containing Stephen Hendry, GRAEME DOTT, NEIL ROBERTSON, ALI CARTER and Stephen Lee, along with three massive outsiders. Needless to say, Hendry dominates the market here but is well worth taking on. Though the greatest player ever to pick up a cue still retains tremendous break-building ability on his day, in virtually every tournament nowadays he seems to have one awful match which he loses. My suspicion is that he just doesn't have the patience for long-drawn out, tactical matches any more, and could definitely struggle if such a match develops over 25 frames. Hendry and Dott are both red-hot favourites for their opening matches so are likely to meet in the second round. Dott, though ultimately a limited player, is a very gritty competitor who will test Hendry and showed two years ago how these longer matches suit him when he reached the final here.

Lee is also worth opposing in my view, despite a recent victory in the Wales Open. The draw opened up for him there, and I wasn't convinced Lee played that much better than the other recent tournaments he'd failed in. I've fallen for the trap of backing Lee at the Crucible before, only to see him buckle under the pressure as his stamina wilts. By backing the other three players in this section, we're taking combined odds of over 20/1 to win and 10/1 to reach the final. The place price in particular will look huge value should any of them get past Hendry and Lee to reach the semis. The most likely of the trio is Robertson, a future champion for sure though still probably a bit inexperienced. He should win his first round match against Paul Hunter, who is still battling cancer. Carter is a player that has consistently flattered to deceive, but if he can beat Lee in the opener I could see him at last reaching the latter stages of a big event. Last year, Ali played very well in both of his matches, losing the second one to O'Sullivan in unbeatable form so might be another player better suited to the longer format.

And so what of the Rocket, and the other principles? Ronnie's form has been generally poor this season, mostly down to obvious disinterest but he also injured his hand before the Welsh Open. At Wembley, he showed that when in the mood he is still far too good for most opponents but not apparently for John Higgins, who denied him in a classic final. Higgins is without doubt the player of the year, and strikes me as the most likely winner. The reason I simply cannot advise him at odds of 4/1 is that if you backed Higgins match by match in a running accumulator, it would pay probably double those odds. In fact, if he were to draw Mark Selby, Mark Williams, Ronnie, Hendry and then Murphy, the odds of the running accumulator would pay something like 12/1.If you can be bothered laying out money and trading between markets on the exchanges, there's probably some free money here. If not, best to back the weak sections now before re-assessing at the quarter and semi final stages.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

4pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew PETER EBDON @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew GRAEME DOTT @ 80/1 (TOTE)
2pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ALASTAIR CARTER @ 100/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES)

1ST ROUND MATCH

10pts JIMMY WHITE TO BEAT DAVID GRAY @ EVS (SKYBET)

New Sports Betting Advisory Service

As you can see, I provide a weekly analysis of the best golf bets on this site free of charge, along with the occasional snooker or politics preview. These make up a very small percentage of my turnover every week and are basically just an introduction to the events in question.I am now also providing a subscription service for a more comprehensive daily analysis of the day's best value.There will be a mixture of outright bets, and in-running trades.

Two subscription options are available. For £10 per week, you'll get the comprehensive golf analysis which will consist of at least three e-mails each week. At the start of the week, I'll pinpoint the early trading value and then after Rounds 2 and 3, I'll advise you of all the best trades ahead of that day's play.The other option is, at £20 per week, a comprehensive analysis of all the sporting events that my attention will be focussed on. Apart from golf, the main sports I cover are cricket, snooker, international football, top-class National Hunt racing and the occasional tennis tournament. As well as these, I'll share any politics betting advice if and when a suitable market arises. There will be a Paypal option on the site very soon, but for now you'll have to contact me to arrange payment. You can either e-mail me at paulmotty@hotmail.com or leave a message and e-mail address below.

Good Luck!

Back Ernie to end Masters jinx

Officially, the first Major of the season starts this Thursday at Augusta, but for me the US Masters is nowhere nearly as eagerly anticipated as the unofficial 5th Major that took place at Sawgrass a fortnight ago. I appreciate there are many golfing connoisseurs out there who would consider this to be sacrilege but ultimately, I'm a gambler, and I would rather see the lead change 19 times involving 8 players in the same round as we saw on the Saturday of Sawgrass. The chances of anything like that at Augusta are remote to say the least. The Masters is without doubt the Major where the difference between the big-hitting elite players and the rest is most profound. Year in year out, this is dominated by the big 5, and betting over the weekend can be a bit dull as there are rarely more than two or three players seriously in contention on the last day (though it does happen occasionally).

Consider the stats of the big 5 at Augusta. Tiger Woods bids for a 5th Green Jacket in 10 years. Phil Mickelson has 7 consecutive top-10s here, including one win and four 3rd placings. VIJAY SINGH has four top-7 finishes from 5 starts since winning in 2000. ERNIE ELS has yet to win but prior to a poor showing in 2005, had finished in the top 6 five years in succession. RETIEF GOOSEN hates the place in comparison, having only finished 2nd, 3rd and 13th twice in the last four years! Whats more, their dominance looks likely to be exaggerated further this year due to the considerable lengthening of an already long course. The message to punters is clear. Concentrate all your attention in the outright market on selections from these 5 players, and leave any other fancies to the usual wide array of interesting speciality markets where they don't have to take on all the superstars.

So who to pick from this elite? Obviously Tiger is a worthy favourite at his second home and better value than his skinny odds look at first glance. If you'd taken 7/2 about him every year since he turned pro in 1997, you'd be showing a handy profit. In 2005, he was back to his awesome best in the Majors, and despite persistent inaccuracy off the tee, Woods has won 3 times already this year on courses that suit his game. But then there is the added complication caused by his father's terminal illness, which might impact on Tiger's focus. Phil Mickelson has a blindingly obvious chance after an amazing performance at Sugarloaf over the weekend, but his price is now predictably in freefall with 13/2 the best left. Considering their fine course records, I'd prefer to back the other three each-way at place terms that pay the equivalent of Tiger's win odds.

Els is in danger of surpassing Greg Norman's unenviable tag of being the best player never to win a Masters. I don't think there was a person alive who didn't assume Ernie was at least guaranteed a play-off when he signed his card two years ago, before Mickelson started that miraculous birdie blitz to break his heart again. However, he did nothing badly wrong on any of his many near-misses here and I remain confident the Big Easy has at least a couple more Majors left in him. He hasn't started at these kind of odds at Augusta for years, based on an average set of finishes since returning to the PGA Tour after injury. Alternatively though, he only went down in a play-off to Woods in Dubai, and by a shot at Fancourt to Goosen. I also thought for a brief moment that he was going to nick the Players Championship recently when he shot up the leaderboard on the final day. It was only a couple of disasters chasing pins over those last few treacherous holes that sent him back to 8th place but he looked to be right back in the groove. A week off since to prepare won't have done any harm either, compared to Mickelson who might have trouble keeping the run going for a second week.

Goosen's chance is extremely obvious and surely better than his odds of 12/1 imply. He has increasingly looked a natural for Augusta in the last few years and comes here in fine form. He played brilliantly for the last 63 holes at Sawgrass but can hardly be criticised for not being able to catch the runaway winner, and followed up with a rock-solid fourth place. Goose seems to be a permanent feature on the leaderboard at all the Majors nowadays, and 3/1 for the top-5 finish looks particularly good. As for Vijay, we just have to hope for a decent putting week. It seems as if the Fijian has gone off the boil because he hasn't won for a while, but he still has eight top-10 finishes from his last 11 tournaments, having never finished lower than 24th. With that consistency on a course where his long-hitting advantage is accentuated, I just can't see him being far away and a 2nd Green Jacket is perfectly feasible.

And so to the speciality markets. The Masters is one of the best events of the year for these, as I can't think of a single course where previous course form is so important. Some players just never take to the heavily contoured, lightning fast greens, or aren't long enough off the tee, or just aren't good enough iron players. Augusta really seems to get to some players. On the other hand, aside the principles, the same old faces frequent the top-20 most years. Previous winners tend to build up a bank of course form, even late in their careers such as Jose-Maria Olazabal, who has big claims of a third Green Jacket, and even Bernhard Langer got into the thick of it here 2 years ago.

I was going to back ANGEL CABRERA for the outright at 100/1 but on reflection 40/1 without the big 5 looks much better value. Betfred, Skybet and Betfair have a market for this at the moment but others may well follow. The Duck has always looked the kind of player to do well here, with his great length off the tee and fine touch around the greens. Argentina's finest did manage three consecutive top-15s from 2001-2003, and could come into his own now the course has been lengthened. He also looks a cracking bet to beat Robert Allenby in a 72-hole match bet with Hills as Allenby has never prospered here in several visits. Again in this market, it should pay to stick with the obvious as LUKE DONALD looks rock-solid each-way value at 14/1. I have great doubts that Donald will ever win at Augusta, because he will always have to concede a lot of length off the tee to the biggest hitters. But to come 3rd on his debut here last year was a magnificent effort, and showed that his precision irons are exactly what is required on these greens. I think Luke looks a banker for the top-10 here, but am much happier taking 14/1 against the field than 33/1 against Tiger and co, of whom I'm sure one will finish ahead of England's best chance.

The bet of the week though has to be PAUL MCGINLEY to beat Fred Funk over 72 holes at 9/10 with Hills. I don't know why they've paired these two, as Funk has a catastrophic record at Augusta. The straightest hitter on tour is also one of the shortest, a death knell at Augusta at the best of times and even more so now. In eight visits, he's missed five cuts, with one 17th position the only noteworthy effort. McGinley finished a creditable 18th on his debut and has improved lots since. I quietly fancy McGinley to sneak into the fringes of contention, so he simply must be backed here in a bet that he might only need make the cut to win.

A couple of Betfred's groups don't look like they'll take much winning either. Group F contains serial Augusta failures Allenby, Rory Sabbatini and Michael Campbell, along with Tim Clark and KJ CHOI. Preference here has to be for the Korean, whose course form reads a solid 15th, 3rd and 33rd. Group H looks even weaker with Colin Montgomerie, Justin Leonard and Stewart Cink all highly unlikely to figure as is debutant Lucas Glover. ROD PAMPLING stands out in this company. There is a vague correlation between form at Augusta and Bay Hill, scene of Pampling's recent breakthrough victory. That win could represent a real turning point in the career of this previously under-achieving Aussie, who finished a highly impressive 5th on his Masters debut last year. Pampling must also be backed at 8/1 for a top-10 finish and in a 72 hole match bet against his compatriot Stuart Appleby, who has yet to make the top-20 here in nine visits.

Only a late bogey cost us a nice payout on TOM LEHMAN at Sawgrass on both the top-10 and top American without Tiger markets. Once again, the US Ryder Cup captain has been underestimated at a venue where he has prospered in the past. I recommend backing Tom in both markets at 9/1 and 40/1 respectively. It would have been better if the bookies had created a "Top American w/o Tiger and Mickelson" market, as Lefty will take the world of beating in this market. Nevertheless, once you get past Phil there isn't that much to beat. The most likely challenger for me is CHAD CAMPBELL who is enjoying his best year to date with a series of consistent performances including a win at the Bob Hope Classic. Augusta definitely takes some learning, so it was a positive to see Chad improve on two missed cuts on his first two visits with 17th place last year. There's no reason why he should't be suited by Augusta so a big run is expected.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

US MASTERS

OUTRIGHT

3pts ew ERNIE ELS @ 12/1 (HILLS, STAN JAMES, SPORTING ODDS)
3pts ew RETIEF GOOSEN @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

BETTING WITHOUT BIG 5

1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 40/1 (BETFRED, SKYBET)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 14/1 (BETFRED)


TOP AMERICAN WITHOUT WOODS

1pt ew CHAD CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (LADBROKES)
1pt ew TOM LEHMAN @ 40/1 (LADBROKES, TOTE)

72-HOLE MATCH BETS

22pts PAUL MCGINLEY @ 10/11 (VS FRED FUNK) (HILLS)
11pts ANGEL CABRERA @ 10/11 (VS ROBERT ALLENBY) (HILLS)
11pts ROD PAMPLING @ 10/11 (VS STUART APPLEBY) (HILLS)

72-HOLE GROUP BETS

4pts KJ CHOI TO WIN GROUP F @ 7/2 (BETFRED)
3pts ROD PAMPLING TO WIN GROUP H @ 10/3 (BETFRED)

TOP 10 FINISH

2pts ROD PAMPLING @ 8/1 (SKYBET, PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES)
1pt TOM LEHMAN @ 9/1 (PADDY POWER, BETFAIR)

2006 STATS: (-117pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts