Betting preview for Deutsche Bank and US Bank Championship

There's always a fear after a Major championship that backing players who were in contention can be a risky business, as it must be hard to motivate oneself in the lesser event. Thankfully the only players in contention at Hoylake to re-appear this week are Sergio Garcia, Angel Cabrera and Andres Romero - neither of whom could hardly be described as being in the thick of it.

The European event in Germany very much takes centre stage with one of the best fields of the year. With the understandable exception of Darren Clarke and late withdrawal Colin Montgomerie, pretty much everyone who is anyone in European golf is playing, along with world-class South Africans Retief Goosen and Tim Clark. The course, Gut Kaden, has a history of separating the men from the boys so I'm expecting a leaderboard packed with stars. Several look well worth taking on. I can't back Goosen, in spite of a good course record, because he was unconvincing again at the Open. Similarly, Sergio Garcia may have produced his best for a long time on a tailor-made course but is unlikely to hole enough birdie putts here. David Howell is struggling, Henrik Stenson has looked off the pace for months now and defending champ Niclas Fasth has plenty to prove after a poor month.

The standout selection for me is a man who missed the cut at Hoylake, PADRAIG HARRINGTON. I had fancied Pod long-term for the Open, but changed my mind at the last as I don't think the benign conditions favoured him. Not for the first time anyway, Harrington spectacularly failed to deliver when carrying massive expectations into a Major. Having benefitted from a weekend rest, I expect him to bounce back here. A winner at Gut Kaden in 2003, last year's lacklustre effort can be ignored as it was just a week after the death of his father. Prior to the Open Harrington had looked a winner in waiting with three top-5s from four starts, so this looks a perfect opportunity at quite reasonable odds of 16/1.

All of my other three selections made the cut at Hoylake, but will have been disappointed with their efforts. Firstly, LUKE DONALD showed again that he doesn't have the game for links golf just yet. This sort of parkland test is far more to his liking, and I expect a swift return to his ultra-consistent PGA Tour form. Gut Kaden used to be a big-hitters paradise, but course changes mean that accuracy too is essential. That brings Donald into it for me, as his one obvious weakness is length off the tee, but greens in regulation are more likely to be important nowadays.

Despite this, those who hit it long and straight should score very well. Taking this into consideration, I've got to overlook PAUL CASEY's abysmal weekend. When you're holding an ante-post voucher for the Order of Merit, it is extremely disheartening to see a player look so disinterested when there is plenty of Euros still up for grabs. He's clearly another Brit who has much to learn about links, but again Gut Kaden is a completely different proposition. He was 5th to Harrington here in 2003, and again you can overlook last year's failures as he was badly out of form at the time. If Casey returns to the form he was showing up until the Open, its very hard to imagine him out of the top-10.

Finally in Europe, I'm straying back into the market to back a player who must owe me a small fortune, LEE WESTWOOD. A dual winner at Gut Kaden, Westwood must fancy his chances of continuing his recent improved form. 4th in Ireland earlier in the month, his last round of 69 in tough scoring conditions at Hoylake was excellent and could act as the perfect warm-up.

The PGA Tour moves on to its regular fixture at Brown Deer Park, home of the US Bank Championship. While the recent roll-call of winners doesn't suggest picking the winner will be easy, it does suggest experience is the order of the day with Ben Crane and Shigeki Maruyama the only 'young' winners in the last decade. The course specialist par excellence and market leader is KENNY PERRY. Because he hasn't quite hit the heights of recent years since a back operation, Perry is as big as 16/1 to win a title he last won in 2003. Bearing in mind that he has not finished lower than 9th on his last six visits and was placed on four of those, 16/1 is a very big each-way price. And I'm not deterred by the injury and inferior 2006 form. 2 of his last 4 US starts have resulted in top-15 finishes. Such is the competitive nature of the US Tour, you can't finish that high playing too far below your best.

Otherwise, this looks a great opportunity for a couple of players still looking for that elusive first Tour win. I've stated the case for BO VAN PELT on several occasions. Its getting a bit frustrating waiting for the breakthrough, but Bo deserves credit for his consistency. Missing the cut at Hoylake was Van Pelt's first since the opening event of the year. He must have every chance on a course where he has two consecutive top-15 finishes against a field notably lacking the class of most other weeks. Asides the Majors, four of BRETT QUIGLEY's last six PGA Tour starts have yielded top-10 finishes which makes 50/1 look absolutely huge. The case for Quigley is even further enhanced when you look at his Brown Deer Park record - top-4 in two of the last three runnings of this event.

Finally, someone who fits the bill as a typical Brown Deer Park experienced winner is JERRY KELLY. In his native Wisconsin, consistent Kelly is always a player to be reckoned with. In his last 10 outings on this course, Kelly has an impressive six top-15 finishes including a second and third place. After a solid Open and a reasonably consistent season, I'll be surprised if he's too far away come Sunday.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

DEUTSCHE BANK

2.5pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 18/1 WITH EXPEKT)
2.5pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 40/1 (BET DIRECT, BETFRED)

US BANK CHAMPIONSHIP

2.5pts ew KENNY PERRY @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew BO VAN PELT @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew BRETT QUIGLEY @ 50/1 (365, LADBROKES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew JERRY KELLY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-64.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

British Open Preview

As you can no doubt imagine, finding the winner of the Open Championship is something I spend months pondering, but I have to say the 2006 renewal is as wide-open and tough to call as I've ever seen. As well as looking for all the usual necessary credentials in an Open winner- good links record, ability to play in the wind, good short game - we also have to decipher the exact nature of the Hoylake course. Unlike every other Open in living memory, we have absolutely no course form to work from as it was last held there in 1967. Surprisingly, despite all the equipment advances in the intervening period, Hoylake will only play a couple of hundred yards longer. Graeme McDowell gave a lengthy radio interview and described the requirements he believed were necessary. McDowell, not a forlorn trade at a huge price himself by any means, said he felt it was the type of course where the best players would rise to the top of the leaderboard, and expected to see an all-star top-10. He said it was a positional course, with accuracy from the tee to dry, narrow fairways essential to set up the best angle and avoid the penal rough and bunkers. Wind is the course's main defence, so with the weather forecast very good I expect we'll see some very low scores this week.

Matters are complicated further by the fact that all of the big-5 have question marks surrounding them. Despite only 2 outings since the Masters, Tiger Woods showed he is in decent enough form at the Western Open a fortnight ago, finishing 2nd after a poor start. But Cog Hill, always one of his favourite courses, has little in common with Hoylake and Woods' open record suggests he is very poor value. Asides two facile wins at St Andrews, a course made for Tiger if ever there was one, he has never looked like winning an Open. Phil Mickelson may have blown the US Open last month but he comes into this as the leading player in many people's eyes. But his Open record is poor, finishing in the top-10 only once. Vijay Singh has improved on links courses over the years but this remains his worst Major and he could well struggle if the greens dry out. Retief Goosen looked a banker each-way selection 6 weeks ago but has lost his form since.

Of the other six in the world's top 10, Adam Scott has a shocking Open record, as does David Howell. Geoff Ogilvy was one of my long-term fancies for this when he was a 100/1 chance, but all of that has long gone with his US Open win and very, very few players win two Majors in succession. Sergio Garcia is interesting after four Open top-10s in five years, but can't be trusted until his putting consistently improves. So we're left with ERNIE ELS and JIM FURYK. Ernie has enough question marks of his own to answer, having failed to produce anywhere near his best since returning from injury just before Christmas. The consequence is that the greatest links player, and most consistent Open contender of the last decade is twice the price of recent years. I was quietly encouraged by Ernie's warm-up at Loch Lomond, his first event since taking a break after the US Open to prepare intensively for this. He improved after a slowish start in Scotland to finish in the top-10, ranking an impressive fourth for greens in regulation. He sounds confident and reckons Hoylake will suit. I've backed Els in some way or other for the Open pretty much every year since he turned pro, and have been rewarded over and again with one win, three second places, as well as four other top-10s. On many of those occasions, he came into the event below his best, so I'd be mad to abandon the strategy in this most open of Opens.

Furyk is more of a risky proposition, but the odds make the gamble worth it. Finishing 4th twice and then 10th from 1997 - 1999, Furyk looked a likely future Open winner but since then its all gone horribly wrong in this event. Only one cut has been made since, and even then he finished a disappointing 41st. Amongst those six failures, three can be excused as two were at the totally unsuitable St Andrews and once he was struggling with a wrist injury. 2006 though, has arguably been Furyk's best. A win at Wachovia is supplemented by four other top-4 finishes, all in the highest company on the PGA Tour. Most recently, he must have been devastated to miss out on a play-off for the US Open by missing from four feet on the last hole. The final factor that leads me to overlook those poor recent Opens is the fact that Hoylake simply must suit Furyk. He is as straight as anyone off the tee, among the very best iron players and a superb putter.

Though his 2006 form has so far been patchy, I can see MICHAEL CAMPBELL going very well here. 5th place at St Andrews last year was Cambo's best Open since nearly winning at the same venue in 1995, and confirmation that having won the US Open he no longer looked out of place amongst the elite. Since returning from his winter break, he has looked sublime on occasion but back to his infuriating worst on others. I like the fact that Campbell swerved one of his favourite events at Loch Lomond to prepare, and think 50/1 is a more than adequate estimation of his chances. And throughout his career, the Kiwi has shown his best form on tough, positional golf courses, especially on linksy courses in Australasia.

At the outstanding price of 100/1, MIKE WEIR looks to have been seriously under-rated. Weir is a great player of positional golf courses, combining accuracy with fine wedge play and a sublime short-game. Having chipped his way to the 2003 Masters, Weir looked a likely future Open winner when 9th at Troon in 2004. Unfortunately he lost all form for a year but has bounced back well this year without winning just yet. 6th at the US Open, his third good showing in that Major, proved he was back to his best and he also hasn't missed a cut since February. When winning the Masters, Amex and Tour Championships, the Canadian left-hander has proved himself well up to winning on the big stage. A Hoylake Open represents his best chance yet of proving it in this particular Major.

There are several outsiders fancied to go well, and its a dilemma choosing which market to play for each. Normally I like the top European and top Rest of the World player markets but with so many contenders in each, this looks less value than usual. So, first of all, I'm backing ROD PAMPLING for the outright at a juicy 125/1. Pampling first sprung to fame when leading the Open after day 1 at Carnoustie only to miss the cut. Since then, the consistent Australian has slowly grown in stature, and finally shed the bottler tag when winning the prestigious Bay Hill Invitational. He's followed up by missing only one cut, finished a creditable 16th at the Masters and registering three more top-10s, all in high-grade PGA Tour events. As an Aussie used to playing classic linksy courses like Royal Melbourne and Huntingdale, Pampling should relish the conditions of the Open Championship and looks top value in the outright, top-20 and spread markets.

This year's Open represents clearly the best chance of a first European Major success since Paul Lawrie at Carnoustie in 1999. I can never remember our continent having as much strength in depth as it has this year. Luke Donald was left out of the staking plan very reluctantly, and only because he has yet to achieve anything of note in an Open. He has played the course recently though, expressing great confidence afterwards and like Furyk, looks the ideal type for Hoylake. Padraig Harrington was a long range fancy for this, but at a best priced 22/1 is short enough. If the wind gets up though, I will certainly be backing Pod in-running. Jose-Maria Olazabal was another long-range fancy, but his form seems to have deserted him in the last few weeks. For the first time ever, I give Colin Montgomerie a decent chance of winning - as long as the wind stays away - though I suspect Winged Foot will go down as his last and best chance of landing that elusive Major. IAN POULTER certainly doesn't look a forlorn hope for a home winner on the basis of some excellent recent form and a personal best at last year's Open. I prefer to back the Luton man in speciality markets though. In particular, he looks an outstanding bet to beat Angel Cabrera over 72 holes with Bluesq and Paddy Power. Cabrera has only one good Open to his name at Carnoustie and looks totally unsuited to this short course.

With so many UK and Ireland players in contention, the best market in which to back MIGUEL ANGEL JIMINEZ is the "Top Continental Europe" market. There's only 20 competitors here, including Seve Ballesteros and four other complete no-hopers. The market is headed by Sergio Garcia and Jose-Maria Olazabal, whom I've expressed doubts about above. Jiminez meanwhile remains one of the most under-rated players in the world. Despite 13 European Tour wins and numerous good efforts in Majors, including top-20 in both the 2006 Masters and US Open, Jiminez always seems to be spoken of and priced up as a lower order player. It would come as no surprise if he were to land a Major before his career is out, and I think Hoylake will suit the Spaniard. I only left him out of the outright staking plan at the last minute, and then only because he looks outstanding value for this specific market.

My most lucrative Open market over the years has been variations of the top American or top American without Tiger markets. With little confidence surrounding Woods this year, bookies haven't bothered leaving him out so odds are inflated to compensate for the inclusion of Woods and Mickelson. As I said above, I'm not particularly positive about either of those and the only serious American contender I fancy is Jim Furyk. Therefore there must be a bit of value in picking out some big prices here for each-way betting. Yet again, FRED COUPLES has been massively underestimated at 50/1. Freddie is the best player never to win an Open in my view with nine top-10 finishes. 4th at St Andrews last year and 3rd at the Masters proved Couples is not finished at the highest level just yet. I can see this course favouring the experienced players, and as long as the weather stays good and the old back problems don't flare up, Couples shouldn't be too far away. With consistency from tee to green essential here, BART BRYANT and BO VAN PELT also look well worth a shout at 66/1. Van Pelt hasn't missed a cut since January and made both cuts in his previous Open appearances. Ultra-accurate Bryant too impressed on his Open debut last year when finishing 23rd, and also went well for a long way at Winged Foot before some final day disasters sent him back to 32nd. To repeat, if the wind doesn't blow too hard, players hitting greens in regulation are bound to score well here and both of these score very highly in that category. Finally, I must back JEFF MAGGERT in this market at 100/1. Having finally won a strokeplay event earlier this year after years of bottling, Maggert may well add to a mightily impressive Majors record. The fact is most Major courses require accuracy and consistency from tee to green as an essential, so people like Maggert keep popping up in the top-10. After countless high finishes in US Majors, Hoylake could present Maggert with his best opportunity of matching his only top-5 Open finish from 1996 at Lytham.

Skybet have opened a new market on a top-20 finish, which looks the perfect format to back some of the outsiders I fancy. As I've said, the Australians should be comfortable with the conditions, and as well as Pampling, I reckon RICHARD GREEN, BRETT RUMFORD, MATTHEW GOGGIN and JARROD LYLE all have a squeak of a high finish at Hoylake. NICK O'HERN is another Aussie who looks set for a high finish but as he is very short for the top-20 I prefer him as a spread proposition.

Finally, some more match bets. Last week's Scottish Open winner Johan Edfors is matched against rising PGA star CARL PETTERSSON. Despite Edfors miraculous progress, I expect him to struggle on his Open debut, especially just days after that memorable Loch Lomond triumph. And Angel Cabrera, who I mentioned above as a player likely to struggle, must be opposed with ultra consistent TIM CLARK. Clark is another ultra-accurate player bound to be suited by the course, but who has been overlooked here due to a poor Open record. He shouldn't have to finish too high to get the better of Cabrera though.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

OUTRIGHT - (PADDY POWER, BETFRED AND BLUESQ ALL GO 1/4 ODDS, 6 PLACES)

2.5pts ew ERNIE ELS @ 16/1 (18/1 SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew JIM FURYK @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MIKE WEIR @ 100/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ROD PAMPLING @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

TOP US PLAYER

1pt ew FRED COUPLES @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BART BRYANT @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BO VAN PELT @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JEFF MAGGERT @ 100/1 (CORAL, STAN JAMES)

TOP CONTINENTAL EUROPEAN

4pts ew MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ 14/1 (HILLS)

TOP 20 FINISH (ALL WITH SKYBET)

4pts ROD PAMPLING @ 10/3
3pts RICHARD GREEN @ 11/2
2pts BRETT RUMFORD @ 15/2
2pts MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 15/2
1.5pts JARROD LYLE @ 12/1

72-HOLE MATCH BETS

11pts IAN POULTER @ 10/11 (VS ANGEL CABRERA)
11pts TIM CLARK @ 10/11 (VS ANGEL CABRERA)
11pts CARL PETTERSSON @ 10/11 (VS JOHAN EDFORS) (VICTOR CHANDLER)

SPREADS

SELL NICK O'HERN FINISHING POSITION 2PTS @ 34 (SPREADFAIR)
SELL ROD PAMPLING FINISHING POSITION 2PTS @ 35 (SPREADFAIR)

2006 STATS: (-57pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Loch Lomond Betting Preview

Arguably the best fortnight of the golfing season starts on Thursday with the annual precurser to next week's Open Championship, the Scottish Open at Loch Lomond. A key point to remember is that these two events are very different in nature. Whereas next week's jamboree is the premier links tournament of the year, Loch Lomond is target golf in a picturesque setting. So don't assume for a moment that this week's winner must automatically have a great chance at Hoylake. In fact no Scottish Open winner has ever followed up in the big one.

There's a genuinely world class field on show in Scotland, despite regular visitor Phil Mickelson's sensible decision to practice at Hoylake instead. Former champions Ernie Els and Retief Goosen have plenty to prove on the back of disappointing seasons and are available at 14/1 for the first time in years on a course where they have both excelled. Goosen particularly looks worth opposing after a very poor weekend in Ireland. As for Ernie, rumours of his demise are surely premature and the Big Easy is talking a good game on his website. Els reckons he's been putting in the hours practising for this fortnight and thinks its coming together. At current odds he is very much in my thoughts for Hoylake, but I want to see the evidence first. Loch Lomond normally turns into a putting contest, and this was the area of Ernie's game giving the greatest concern, so he is probably best watched.

Defending champion Tim Clark loves this place and has a very obvious chance after another fast-finish on Sunday, but his great course record is more than factored into the price. Another deterrant to backing the consistent South African is the fact that I just cannot seem to call this guy right! Clark's success here is due in no small part to his ability to hit greens in regulations consistently. On a course where every hole is a birdie chance provided you can keep the ball in play, metronomic accuracy with driver and irons is essential, far more important than length unless the course become soaked. With a decent weather forecast, the relatively short-hitting LUKE DONALD must have a cracking chance as he has a very similar, if slightly superior profile to Clark. On his first visit to Loch Lomond last year, Donald hit 68/67/67/67 to finish 5th and its hard to see how he could ever run up a big score here. Since winning the Honda Classic in March, Luke has retained good form with six top-25 finishes from 9 starts, including three top-10s. 8 of those starts came on the US Tour, and we have seen previously just how dangerous Donald can be when back on the slightly lower grade European Tour.

I'm also surprised to see DAVID HOWELL as big as 18/1 bearing in mind his tremendous progress this season. The Order of Merit leader hinted that he was about to enter the biggest league of all when bang in contention at the US Open for the first two days. It was no surprise to see him struggle under the pressure of his first really serious attempt at a Major, but make no mistake he has arrived amongst the game's elite. His awesome performance when running away with the BMW Championship at Wentworth was followed by more good form in the States. Ignore the missed cut in France a fortnight ago, by his own admission Howell was knackered. This week he will be fresh and well prepared for another tilt at a course he's twice finished in the top-3 previously. His putting stroke in particular should be a massive asset here.

Another one who likes Loch Lomond is IAN POULTER, having finished top-10 for the last three years. Its interesting to see Poulter right up near the top of the driving accuracy stats on the US Tour this season, as I'd never really considered that to be a strength. The fact that Ian hasn't won for a couple of seasons shows just how competitive golf is and how a top player can endure an inexplicable barren run. I'm adamant Poulter is a winner waiting to happen during arguably his most consistent season to date. There's certainly nothing wrong with his temperament, which looked as good as anyone when winning six European Tour titles from 2000 - 2004. After five top-10s in 2006, including 3rd on his penultimate outing in France, a change of luck is surely due.

Unsurprisingly a week before the British Open the field for the PGA Tour event, the JDR Classic, is very weak. This event has produced 16 first time winners in 33 years and looks once again to be a complete lottery. As far as betting is concerned, stakes should be kept to an absolute minimum, but as the event is televised its still worth having a small punt to make a dull event a bit more interesting.

A couple of my favourites head the market, Zach Johnson and Bo Van Pelt. Seeing as they owe me plenty from the last season or two, this will probably be the week they finally oblige but I see them as characters worth chancing at big odds, not when they are less than 25/1. This is especially the case here because they've never done anything of note on this course. Of the shorter prices, the best bet looks rejuvenated STEVE STRICKER. A class act in his heyday, Stricker has come back brilliantly in recent weeks to regain his card after a long spell suffering from injury and severe loss of form. Stricker's made his last six cuts, including three top-6 finishes, the highlight of which was of course the US Open where he played an absolute blinder. This is a course he likes, having finished 4th in 2004 when in nowhere near the form he is now.

I've long been a fan of JUSTIN ROSE, who remains an unfulfilled talent. He really looked the business when winning four times on the European Tour back in 2002, but the death of his father and mentor set him back before he took the brave, but possibly unwise step of going straight to the US Tour. I reckon he'll open his account over there at some stage and as he's not in bad form, a low grade event like this could be the opportunity he's been waiting for.

Finally, I'm having a speculative punt on another unfulfilled talent, PAT PEREZ. The case for 80/1 chance Perez lies largely on two top-12 finishes in 2002 and 2003 on this course. He played well at last week's Western Open for three rounds before a poor Sunday, but has enough about him to get competitive in this company.

Good Luck!

SCOTTISH OPEN

3pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (BET DIRECT, TOTE)
3pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 18/1 (SKYBET, CORAL)
2pts ew IAN POULTER @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

JOHN DEERE RUN CLASSIC

1pt ew STEVE STRICKER @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 50/1 (BETFRED, CORAL, BLUESQ, HILLS)
0.5pts ew PAT PEREZ @ 66/1 (GENERAL, 80/1 WITH BLUESQ)

2006 STATS: (-52pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1