Casey to resume winning ways
This is the final week of the golfing year, and we have three events to play on as I'm not bothering with either the low grade Volvo Asian Masters or Argentinian Open. Despite an all-star turnout, the Tiger Woods Target Challenge makes limited appeal as a betting medium. As we've seen in recent weeks, many of the Americans are winding down at this time of year and aren't at their best, while Tiger is a very prohibitively priced 13/8.
Tiger will take all the beating in his own tournament, however. He has finished in the top 2 on each of the last five runnings, and has won twice. 13/8 makes no appeal to me in what is little more than an exhibition though, so for an interest, I'm having a small each-way bet on one of the players of the year, MICHAEL CAMPBELL. Unlike many of the others, Cambo is still in competitive mood as we are in the middle of the Australasian season. Since winning the US Open in June, the pride of New Zealand has looked very much at home in world class company and his odds of 28/1 are frankly an insult to a player of his talent. Is he really half the player of 14/1 shots Padraig Harrington and Darren Clarke? Not to mention Colin Montgomerie, who edged him out in the Order of Merit by virtue of playing several more tournaments. To repeat, though, I'm keeping stakes to a minimum with a view to trading in-running.
From a betting perspective, the tournaments in Australia and South Africa make much more appeal. The ANZ Tour moves on to one of my favourite events of the whole year, the Mastercard Masters at the excellent Huntingdale course, where Robert Allenby bids to emulate Peter Lonard's amazing achievement from last winter of three consecutive wins. Allenby is one of my favourite players and has done me many, many favours over the years but I have to confess his form over the past fortnight has taken me very much by surprise after an appalling year by his standards. Having missed the boat twice, there's no way I'm backing him this week. Another obvious contender at this level is Stuart Appleby, but he is overlooked after several moderate efforts on this difficult course which has never looked like suiting him. Alternatively, Peter Lonard has a fine record around a course that suits his accurate game down to a tee but comes here in poor form by his own standards.
The one to beat is undoubtably ADAM SCOTT, who just missed out in a play-off at Sun City at the weekend. Clearly the best player in the field, Scott has generally underperformed in his home country but Huntingdale is the one place he has always looked a very likely winner. He was 2nd here in 2002 and 2003 and blew a big winning chance on the first of those occasions. Provided the travel arrangements from South Africa have not taken their toll, Adam must be on the premises again this week and therefore merits a place in the staking plan despite skinny odds of 8/1.
My main bet at Huntingdale though has to be PAUL CASEY, whose odds of 16/1 make no sense to me. Presumably this is a reaction to last week's missed cut but my view is that this is meaningless. Following on from his win the week before, Casey had a nightmare first round, and actually played superbly in Round 2, missing several putts that would have enabled to him to make an unlikely cut. Prior to that, he'd been in arguably the best form of anyone in this field, with four top-10s from his previous six outings on the European Tour. The only downside is that this is Paul's first appearance on a tricky course. He has, however, plenty of form in this part of the world. Winner of the 2003 ANZ Championship and runner-up the following year, Casey also finished fourth in the Heineken Classic at nearby Royal Melbourne.
Other obvious contenders include serial bottler Nick O'Hern, who yet again failed to deliver at the weekend, and defending champ Richard Green who only just misses out on the staking plan after improving on a poor run with some nice golf at the weekend. No doubt Rodney Pampling will be there or thereabouts again, but he strikes me as little better than O'Hern in the finishing department. There are several far better value bets further down the list. Last year's runner-up DAVID MCKENZIE looks big value at 80/1 on the basis of some very solid recent form. In both events in the past fortnight, David has spoiled a potential place opportunity with poor final rounds. This doesn't concern me too much, as his tee to green game has been in excellent shape. McKenzie was also a winner on the Nationwide Tour as recently as September, which is comparable form to nearly all of this field.
And I really cannot abandon WADE ORMSBY after tipping him so many times recently. We were very unlucky not to be rewarded with a nice-priced place at the weekend, with Nathan Green's birdie, (another interesting contender this week), denying us on the 18th hole. A weekend in contention will be a useful experience for Wade, who has sounded very confident about his Huntingdale prospects in recent interviews. Despite little showing last year, Ormsby has been hitting lots of greens in regulation since the tail-end of the European season and will surely prosper here if he keeps it up. Thankfully, this useful prospect remains broadly under the radar of bookies, who have him at a tasty 66/1.
The ever more bizarrely named European Tour moves on from Asia to South Africa this week for the Dunhill Championship, where Ernie Els stands head and shoulders above the rest as the class act in the field. However, Ernie was way off his best on his comeback from injury at Sun City last week and was talking of feeling tired after rounds even before the tournament started. I'm sure his class will enable him to appear somewhere on the leaderboard, and I have no doubt Ernie will be back to his best soon, but under the circumstances he looks well worth taking on at short odds.
Its quite tempting to lay Ernie on the exchanges, but at the very least his presence in the book has created all sorts of value each-way alternatives. The most obvious is TREVOR IMMELMAN, who is equally way ahead of the rest of the field in terms of quality. In three visits to Leopard Creek, Immelman has finished top-10 on each occasion including on his most recent visit in 2003 when a far less developed player than he is today. In fact, Trevor's last seven appearances in South Africa have included in three wins, two second placings and a sixth. He stands out as fantastic each-way value at 14/1.
One player who must surely win again sooner or later is Frenchman GREGORY HAVRET. Since winning the Italian Open as a rookie, Havret has spurned many good chances to win in stronger fields than this. The best chance came when going down to Marcel Siem at Houghton in this very tournament 2 years ago, though he lost nothing in defeat that day and could do nothing about Siem's eagle in the play-off. His only start in South Africa since also resulted in a second placing, and Havret has generally shown himself to be a fast starter in previous seasons.
HENNIE OTTO is capable of very high quality golf when in the mood and has plenty of form round this course to warrant a bet at eye-catching odds of 66/1. A winner on this course in 2003 and top six on two of three other previous visits, Hennie was in the winner's circle again in November at Erinvale. His last effort at the Limpopo Classic recently was better than the 19th placing suggested, as he recovered well with three sub-70 rounds after a poor start.
Good Luck, Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year!
STAKING PLAN
TARGET CHALLENGE
1pt ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 28/1 (SKYBET, UKBETTING)
MASTERCARD MASTERS
4pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 16/1 (STAN JAMES)
6pts win ADAM SCOTT @ 8/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES, BETFRED)
1pt ew WADE ORMSBY @ 66/1 (UKBETTING, STAN JAMES, BETFRED)
1pt ew DAVID MCKENZIE @ 80/1 (SPORTING ODDS, UKBETTING, BETFRED)
DUNHILL CHAMPIONSHIP
4pts ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 14/1 (LADBROKES, BETFRED)
1pt ew GREG HAVRET @ 40/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, UK BETTING, BETFRED)
1pt ew HENNIE OTTO @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2005 STATISTICS: +46.5PTS
Tiger will take all the beating in his own tournament, however. He has finished in the top 2 on each of the last five runnings, and has won twice. 13/8 makes no appeal to me in what is little more than an exhibition though, so for an interest, I'm having a small each-way bet on one of the players of the year, MICHAEL CAMPBELL. Unlike many of the others, Cambo is still in competitive mood as we are in the middle of the Australasian season. Since winning the US Open in June, the pride of New Zealand has looked very much at home in world class company and his odds of 28/1 are frankly an insult to a player of his talent. Is he really half the player of 14/1 shots Padraig Harrington and Darren Clarke? Not to mention Colin Montgomerie, who edged him out in the Order of Merit by virtue of playing several more tournaments. To repeat, though, I'm keeping stakes to a minimum with a view to trading in-running.
From a betting perspective, the tournaments in Australia and South Africa make much more appeal. The ANZ Tour moves on to one of my favourite events of the whole year, the Mastercard Masters at the excellent Huntingdale course, where Robert Allenby bids to emulate Peter Lonard's amazing achievement from last winter of three consecutive wins. Allenby is one of my favourite players and has done me many, many favours over the years but I have to confess his form over the past fortnight has taken me very much by surprise after an appalling year by his standards. Having missed the boat twice, there's no way I'm backing him this week. Another obvious contender at this level is Stuart Appleby, but he is overlooked after several moderate efforts on this difficult course which has never looked like suiting him. Alternatively, Peter Lonard has a fine record around a course that suits his accurate game down to a tee but comes here in poor form by his own standards.
The one to beat is undoubtably ADAM SCOTT, who just missed out in a play-off at Sun City at the weekend. Clearly the best player in the field, Scott has generally underperformed in his home country but Huntingdale is the one place he has always looked a very likely winner. He was 2nd here in 2002 and 2003 and blew a big winning chance on the first of those occasions. Provided the travel arrangements from South Africa have not taken their toll, Adam must be on the premises again this week and therefore merits a place in the staking plan despite skinny odds of 8/1.
My main bet at Huntingdale though has to be PAUL CASEY, whose odds of 16/1 make no sense to me. Presumably this is a reaction to last week's missed cut but my view is that this is meaningless. Following on from his win the week before, Casey had a nightmare first round, and actually played superbly in Round 2, missing several putts that would have enabled to him to make an unlikely cut. Prior to that, he'd been in arguably the best form of anyone in this field, with four top-10s from his previous six outings on the European Tour. The only downside is that this is Paul's first appearance on a tricky course. He has, however, plenty of form in this part of the world. Winner of the 2003 ANZ Championship and runner-up the following year, Casey also finished fourth in the Heineken Classic at nearby Royal Melbourne.
Other obvious contenders include serial bottler Nick O'Hern, who yet again failed to deliver at the weekend, and defending champ Richard Green who only just misses out on the staking plan after improving on a poor run with some nice golf at the weekend. No doubt Rodney Pampling will be there or thereabouts again, but he strikes me as little better than O'Hern in the finishing department. There are several far better value bets further down the list. Last year's runner-up DAVID MCKENZIE looks big value at 80/1 on the basis of some very solid recent form. In both events in the past fortnight, David has spoiled a potential place opportunity with poor final rounds. This doesn't concern me too much, as his tee to green game has been in excellent shape. McKenzie was also a winner on the Nationwide Tour as recently as September, which is comparable form to nearly all of this field.
And I really cannot abandon WADE ORMSBY after tipping him so many times recently. We were very unlucky not to be rewarded with a nice-priced place at the weekend, with Nathan Green's birdie, (another interesting contender this week), denying us on the 18th hole. A weekend in contention will be a useful experience for Wade, who has sounded very confident about his Huntingdale prospects in recent interviews. Despite little showing last year, Ormsby has been hitting lots of greens in regulation since the tail-end of the European season and will surely prosper here if he keeps it up. Thankfully, this useful prospect remains broadly under the radar of bookies, who have him at a tasty 66/1.
The ever more bizarrely named European Tour moves on from Asia to South Africa this week for the Dunhill Championship, where Ernie Els stands head and shoulders above the rest as the class act in the field. However, Ernie was way off his best on his comeback from injury at Sun City last week and was talking of feeling tired after rounds even before the tournament started. I'm sure his class will enable him to appear somewhere on the leaderboard, and I have no doubt Ernie will be back to his best soon, but under the circumstances he looks well worth taking on at short odds.
Its quite tempting to lay Ernie on the exchanges, but at the very least his presence in the book has created all sorts of value each-way alternatives. The most obvious is TREVOR IMMELMAN, who is equally way ahead of the rest of the field in terms of quality. In three visits to Leopard Creek, Immelman has finished top-10 on each occasion including on his most recent visit in 2003 when a far less developed player than he is today. In fact, Trevor's last seven appearances in South Africa have included in three wins, two second placings and a sixth. He stands out as fantastic each-way value at 14/1.
One player who must surely win again sooner or later is Frenchman GREGORY HAVRET. Since winning the Italian Open as a rookie, Havret has spurned many good chances to win in stronger fields than this. The best chance came when going down to Marcel Siem at Houghton in this very tournament 2 years ago, though he lost nothing in defeat that day and could do nothing about Siem's eagle in the play-off. His only start in South Africa since also resulted in a second placing, and Havret has generally shown himself to be a fast starter in previous seasons.
HENNIE OTTO is capable of very high quality golf when in the mood and has plenty of form round this course to warrant a bet at eye-catching odds of 66/1. A winner on this course in 2003 and top six on two of three other previous visits, Hennie was in the winner's circle again in November at Erinvale. His last effort at the Limpopo Classic recently was better than the 19th placing suggested, as he recovered well with three sub-70 rounds after a poor start.
Good Luck, Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year!
STAKING PLAN
TARGET CHALLENGE
1pt ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 28/1 (SKYBET, UKBETTING)
MASTERCARD MASTERS
4pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 16/1 (STAN JAMES)
6pts win ADAM SCOTT @ 8/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES, BETFRED)
1pt ew WADE ORMSBY @ 66/1 (UKBETTING, STAN JAMES, BETFRED)
1pt ew DAVID MCKENZIE @ 80/1 (SPORTING ODDS, UKBETTING, BETFRED)
DUNHILL CHAMPIONSHIP
4pts ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 14/1 (LADBROKES, BETFRED)
1pt ew GREG HAVRET @ 40/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, UK BETTING, BETFRED)
1pt ew HENNIE OTTO @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2005 STATISTICS: +46.5PTS
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:18 PM
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