Wild Thing to smash short-hitting Leonard

Following intense rainfall the course at La Costa has been waterlogged, causing the postponement of Round 1. Aside the inconvenience for players, spectators and punters alike, the implications for betting could be profound. With the fairways drenched and rough extremely difficult, short hitters are now at a massive disadvantage.

I've already highlighted the advantage that Stewart Cink will have over his round 1 opponent Fred Funk, but with the Alabaman a best priced 4/7, a play on the outright market remains the best strategy. Equally, I expect Davis Love to make full use of his length advantage agaiinst Chris Riley but, in the lottery of 18 matchplay, can think of better ways of investing money than backing 8/13 shots.

The bet of the day looks to be JOHN DALY to beat Justin Leonard. The match seems to have been priced up on recent PGA Tour form with recent Bob Hope Classic winner Leonard a unanimous favourite. However, the length advantage should be more profound in this match than any other. Leonard is one of the shortest hitters on Tour while Daly is one of the biggest hitters ever to pick up a club. I expect 'Wild Thing' to enjoy a 30 yard advantage on every hole aside the par 3s, a priceless commodity in matchplay. This is Daly's first visit to the World Matchplay and, due to the nature of his game, he should be ideally suited to matchplay. The erratic dual Major winner's weakness has always been his propensity to ruin decent rounds with the odd disaster hole where his temperament falls apart. Whilst in strokeplay, this is a cardinal sin and destroys the scorecard, it only costs one hole in matchplay and the error can soon be atoned. To my mind, Daly should be clear favourite, making the widespread 6/5 enormous value.

ADVICE: 4pts JOHN DALY (vs JUSTIN LEONARD) @ 6/5 (5/4 with STANLEYBET, GOLFING GODS)

Cink Can Land World Matchplay

A different strategy for picking winners is required this week for the first of this year's World Golf Championship events, the Accenture World Matchplay. The first thing to remember is that in 18 hole matchplay, the stroke play formbook goes largely out of the window. In previous years of this event, near enough half of the matches have been won by the outsider, so under no circumstances should a match be looked upon as a certainty or banker. Secondly, the key to working out the value comes from evaluating the draw. With the 2 most likely winners, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, in the same half of the draw, we can back any of the 32 players in the other half with impunity, safe in the knowledge that they can't run into one of these two until the final. Thirdly, don't be afraid to back outsiders. The unthinkable really can happen in this type of format, as Jeff Maggert,Kevin Sutherland and Steve Stricker have proved in 3 of the previous 6 runnings of the World Matchplay.

With the course at La Costa waterlogged after several recent downpours and more predicted over the weekend, the shortest hitters are at a massive disadvantage. With conditions similar over the last 2 runnings of theevent, we have plenty of form to work on. Towards the bottom of this message,I've listed the 15 players who have won more than 50% of their matches over the past 2 years. Tiger, winner both years, has of course got a 100% record and is very much the one to beat again. Matchplay brings the best out in Woods and usually brings the worst out in his terrified opponents. Last year, he drove the ball terribly for 5 days yet one by one his opponents fell apart. I wouldn't put anyone off backing Tiger but would suggest backing each him for each match individually as an accumulator as the odds will almost certainly beat the best-priced 4/1 on offer. If, for example, he had to play Mickelson in the semi and Vijay Singh in the final, the accumulative odds would probably be closer to 7/1. Woods and Mickelson are far from the only strong contenders in that half of the draw. In my view, Padraig Harrington, Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia and David Toms all have fine chances this week, while even Jerry Kelly and Shigeki Maruyama could be lively outsiders. Under these circumstances, the best strategy is to leave them all to carve each other up while we concentrate on the far less competitive other half of the draw. Here, the big guns are Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen, who both have poor records in the event and are readily opposed. I suggest backing 4 nicely priced players safe in the knowledge that one semi-finalist will guarantee a profitable tournament, before we have to worry about Woods and co.

First up, I'm going for the consistent STEWART CINK at 40/1 (50/1 with Ladbrokes). Cink has already won a WGC event, the 2004 NEC Invitational, and there could be more big prizes to come this year. The key point behind backing him is his first round match against Fred Funk. Short-hitting Funk has never won a match here in 4 attempts and has never struck me as a man with the temparament for matchplay. Provided Stewart wins that match, he will be nowhere near that price - especially for the place part.

In the same quarter, JONATHAN KAYE looks worth a speculative punt at a massive 150/1. Despite failing to follow up on his fine start to the season when runner-up in the Mercedes, Kaye remains a player with a promising future. He should have a nice advantage off the tee against round 1 opponent Jay Haas, and aside a potential round 2 match-up against Singh, shouldn't fear anyone prior to the quarter final, where he would be one victory away from a lucrative place.

After a disappointing winter by his own standards, Australian ROBERTALLENBY looked right back to form at the Nissan last week. Only 3 shots behind at halfway, Bob looked a likely contender before rain brought proceedings to a halt. With a 60% win record here over the past 2 years and plenty of form in bad weather, 80/1 looks much too big. Once again, the clincher is his Round 1 opponent. I strongly fancy Allenby to take care of Open champion Todd Hamilton tomorrow, who has done nothing this season.

For the 4th selection, my old favourite PETER LONARD stands out as exceptional value at 80/1 (100/1 with Ladbrokes). After a magnificent winter at home in Australia which included a remarkable hat-trick of wins, I know I'm not alone in thinking that this is the year when Peter makes the big breakthrough in the States. His record at La Costa is excellent, with a 62.5% success rate over the past 2 years, only going down in a play off in the 2003 semi.

Elsewhere this week, there are 3 other low-grade strokeplay events. On the US Tour, the Tucson Open has been a minefield for punters in recent years and is best swerved as far as the staking plan is concerned. If you want an interest, look no further than the promising AARON OBERHOLSER to improve on last year's 6th place. The New Zealand PGA is another co-sanctioned event with the Nationwide Tour and looks as much of a lottery as last week's Jacobs Creek Open, which outsider Stephen Bowditch ran away with. Again, I'm keeping my powder dry but if you must have a bet, you could do a lot worse than back Kiwi DAVID SMAIL at 16/1 with Golfing Gods.

The Sunshine Tour in South Africa comes to a close this week, with the finale Tour Championship. Despite last week's near-miss, its worth persevering with future Major winner CHARL SCHWARTZEL. The youngster would have dotted up last week but for a disastrous run of holes in Round 3, but showed his character again by storming back into 2nd place. Charl is miles ahead of the rest in the South African money list and must be worth backing to finish the winter in style.

Finally, I may well be advising match selections as the World Matchplay progresses. However, I won't be sending out another e-mail so if you're interested, check out my blog

http://krishnamurty.blogspot.com/

or alternatively, this new sports betting advice site to which I am> contributing

www.coattugger.com>> Good Luck!
PLAYERS WITH A WORLD MATCHPLAY STRIKE-RATE OF OVER 50% FOR 2003/2004 TIGER WOODS 100%
DARREN CLARKE 88%
DAVIS LOVE III 86%
DAVID TOMS 78%
JERRY KELLY 75%>
IAN POULTER 75%
PHIL MICKELSON 71%
CHAD CAMPBELL 67%
JIM FURYK 67%
PADRAIG HARRINGTON 67%
STEVEN LEANEY 67%
PETER LONARD 63%
ROBERT ALLENBY 60%
ALEX CEJKA 60%
JAY HAAS 60%

STAKING PLAN

WORLD MATCHPLAY

2pts ew STEWART CINK @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 50/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1pt ew ROBERT ALLENBY @ 80/1 (HILLS, LADBROKES, STANLEY)
1pt ew PETER LONARD @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 100/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1pt ew JONATHAN KAYE @ 150/1 (SPORTING ODDS, LADBROKES)

VODACOM SA TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP

4pts WIN CHARL SCHWARTZEL @ 6/1 (BETFRED, GOLFING GODS, STAN JAMES)

STATISTICS (After Week 7)

PROFIT/LOSS: (-28.75 PTS)

Maruyama set for Nissan revenge

There's quite a rare treat this week for golf punters with 4 tournaments coming from Malaysia, Australia, South Africa and the US and consequently, live in-running betting available 24 hours per day until Sunday evening. Who needs sleep anyway? Without question the pedigree event is the long standing fixture at Riviera in the US, the Nissan Open, where Canadian Mike Weir is bidding for his third consecutive victory in the event and a strong opposition is led by back to form Tiger Woods and Retief Goosen.

Despite Weir's excellent second at the weekend, 14/1 looks short enough for my liking considering the woeful form of his previous two efforts. The same applies to Woods, in one of the few events which he has never won and Goosen, who is playing the tricky Riviera course for the first time.

Better value lies down the field on a course that takes some getting to know. One man who looked last year to have worked it out is SHIGEKI MARUYAMA. Last year's Nissan Open produced one of the most exciting head to head contests of last year, when the Japanese star nearly hunted down Weir from a seemingly impossible situation. With a home near to the course, Maruyama looks a live bet at 40/1 to erase the bad memories of his recent near miss in the Sony.

A player to go into the notebook over the past fortnight is Korean KJ CHOI. With a series of excellent efforts in last year's Majors, I'm expecting a third PGA Tour victory for KJ this year. He was 5th here a couple of years ago and looks to have the accurate game required to succeed at Riviera. After two decent efforts without quite getting into contention, Choi looks primed for the leaderboard this week.

Finally, despite a poor record at the course, I just can't leave LUKE DONALD out of the staking plan. Having developed one of he most consistent tee to green games in the world, Luke really should be expected to prosper around here. After a slow start last week, Donald once again fought back to finish a creditable 11th. If he had even the semblance of previous course form Luke would, at 33/1, be the main selection but even so, it would be folly to ignore these odds about a player very much on the up.

The latest leg stop for the globetrotting European Tour is the Malaysian Open, which thankfully is to be shown live on Sky. With the top Europeans completely dominating the Far-East Swing so far, it seems surprising that the top 3 in the betting, PADRAIG HARRINGTON, Miguel-Angel Jiminez and THOMAS BJORN are more or less the same prices they were when dominating the Hong Kong Open late last year.

The last Asian tournament in Singapore was again dominated by Europeans with BJORN, Monty and Nick Dougherty pulling clear of the rest. Bjorn could easily have won that event had it not been for a couple of typically ill-timed double-bogeys. Though he seems to be developing a habit for missed chances since his 2003 Open disaster, I'm still prepared to resist labelling Thomas a bottler and expect him to put those bad memories behind him in 2005 with a series of wins. Aside a disappointing missed cut in Melbourne a fortnight ago, Bjorn's has looked in excellent shape since the autumn and must be persevered with.

Of the other two contenders, only one can be justifiably backed at these odds and I'm coming down in marginal favour of another dubious finisher, PADRAIG HARRINGTON. Jiminez is very short at 8/1 and I have a theory that the Spaniard plays his very best golf when warm after a few tournaments. I wonder whether we'll see the best of him on his seasonal debut though if we do, Jiminez will be a certainty for a place at least. Alternatively, Harrington is very rarely not involved in the finish on these trips to Asia at rates at least a saver at 13/2.

The Australian event, the Jacobs Creek Open, has attracted very little interest with the layers. Only Skybet and Golfing Gods have bothered so far so I'm not going to bother adding to the staking plan here. For those looking for an interest I suggest promising Colombian CAMILIO VILLEGAS at 25/1 with both firms. This guy looks a superstar in the making and a repeat performance of his 10th place at the Heineken a fortnight ago would quite possibly be enough to land a poor event.

In the South African event similar problems apply but at least there are 4 firms pricing it up with Paddy Power and Chandler as well as the aforementioned pair. This is another weak field and I'm sticking with the brilliant CHARL SCHWARTZEL to justify favouritism. His first victory in the Dunhill Championship before Christmas was an important career landmark for this future major winner. In 2 years and quite possibly less, Schwartzel will be competing in a far higher class than this.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

NISSAN OPEN

1pt ew SHIGEKI MARUYAMA @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew KJ CHOI @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

MALAYSIAN OPEN

3pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
4pts win PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 13/2 (STAN JAMES, BET DIRECT)

TELKOM PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

4pts win CHARL SCHWARTZEL @ 7/1 (SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER, PADDY POWER)

STATISTICS (After Week 6)

PROFIT/LOSS: (-8.75 PTS)

Els and Singh look a winning double

There are 3 tournaments on which to play this week, and thankfully not an amateur in site, though on the downside the only live coverage available on British TV will be the FBR Open on the PGA Tour. In Australia, we have an excellent tournament, the Heineken Classic, being played on one of the world's greatest courses, Royal Melbourne, yet Sky are yet again refusing to show live pictures overnight and we have to wait till 7am for highlights. Until 2 years ago, the winter months were brightened by the prospect of live coverage of the excellent Australasian tour. Surely I wasn't the only insomniac who stayed up all night? This ludicrous policy at Sky ruins what would no doubt be a great in-running market and I suggest that all of you agree should join me in bombarding Sky with e-mails on the subject.

Anyway, enough of the rant and on to the selections. In Melbourne, Ernie Els is attempting a very rare feat, his 4th consecutive victory in this tournament. Unsurprisingly, his odds are very prohibitive at 3/1 despite some strong opposition led by Aussies Stuart Appleby, Adam Scott, Peter Lonard and a host of top Europeans. Everything is made for Ernie here. Royal Melbourne has all the characteristics of a great links course and the Big Easy is the finest links exponent in the world. For each of the last 3 years he has won unchallenged and 3/1 would have looked a big price after Day 1. However, I just cannot bring myself to back him at those odds in a single but I will be looking to back Ernie at 6/1 or bigger in-running. Also, I suggest a small win double with the FBR favourite Vijay Singh, which I shall get to in a minute.

With Ernie dominating the market, there should be some each-way value around, and nobody fits the bill better than my current nemesis, THOMAS BJORN. I suppose I shouldn't be too harsh as Thomas does at least keep coming up with place returns but his efforts at the weekend were again infuriating. For some reason, he keeps throwing in bizarre double-bogeys in the middle of some scintillating spells of golf to ruin winning chances. Nevertheless, Bjorn remains a winner waiting to happen and should thrive under linksy conditions. His record at the British Open is world class and on his only previous visit to Melbourne finished a respectable 14th despite his game being in a slump at the time. Contrast that with the fact that he hasn't had a bad tournament since chasing home Ernie in the Amex Championship in October and the Dane looks a sure-fire contender.

There are several consistent Australians available at big prices who look sure to go well this week at decent odds - Nick O'Hern, Richard Green, Peter Fowler and PETER O'MALLEY - though I'm deterred by the fact they are all highly dodgy under pressure. Preference is for the latter who is also the best price at a whopping 100/1. Runner-up to Ernie in 2002 and a respectable 11th last year, Melbourne appears to suit O'Malley's accurate game. Always one of the straightest hitters in the world, POM tends to come unstuck on short putts and has never been a convincing front runner. Hopefully, he'll start the final day 3 shots back before launching his customary late charge!

In the US, the tour moves on to the regular fixture in the Arizona Desert, the FBR Open (formally the Phoenix). The market is headed by World No 1 VIJAY SINGH, twice a former winner of this and very much the one to beat. Apparently, the rough has grown considerably at Scottsdale and after heavy rain, the course is playing long. This absolutely plays into the hands of the remarkable Fijian, who is certain to be on the premises. As mentioned above, Vijay should be backed in a double with Ernie Els (pays 19/1 with Ladbrokes) but again I just can't bring myself to back him in a single at such short odds. Look to back Vijay in-running at 8/1 or bigger.
With the rough up, accuracy should be at a premium and therefore it is impossible to overlook the claims of in-form TOM LEHMAN. The Ryder Cup captain has been wonderfully consistent without winning since early Autumn and his last effort when runner-up to Tiger at Torrey Pines was arguably the best of the lot. Lehman never flinched in that dual and further convinced me that he will win again this season. Tom won here in 2000 and otherwise has an excellent course record. Its very hard to see him out of the top 10.

Many good judges think this could be a big year in the US for FREDDIE JACOBSEN. The Swede looked a winner waiting to happen halfway through his debut season in the States last year before his game went surprisingly off the boil. Freddie looked right back to form at the weekend when only some trouble on the greens kept him out of the frame and he looks ready to return to the stellar form of 2003. An excellent 9th on his first Scottsdale visit last year, Jacobsen went into the notebook as a future winner of this, and with the greens softened by the rain I can see this aggressive player shooting right at the pins this week.

The third tournament is the untelevised Nashua Masters in South Africa. This one looks a bit of a lottery to me with some fairly disappointing characters heading the betting in a very poor field so I'm leaving well alone. Finally, just a quick note that I'm going to be publishing my weekly analysis on my blog. I started this blog late last year in order to post a few political articles I've written but now I intend to start publishing my golf tips on there as well, if only as a desperate attempt to get people to actually look at the site! If there's an in-running selection fancied over the weekend, I'm much more likely to just put it up on the blog. I'll still be continuing with the e-mails but if you fancy a look (or indeed an in-depth political debate) then here's the address:
http://krishnamurty.blogspot.com/

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

HEINEKEN CLASSIC

2pts EW THOMAS BJORN @ 22/1 (SPORTING ODDS, SKYBET, STANLEY - 25/1 WITH PADDY POWER)
1pt EW PETER O'MALLEY @ 100/1 (SPORTING ODDS, SKYBET)
2pts WIN DOUBLE ERNIE ELS @ 3/1 & VIJAY SINGH @ 4/1 (FOR THE FBR OPEN) (LADBROKES)

FBR OPEN

1pt EW TOM LEHMAN @ 25/1 (WIDELY AVAILABLE)
1pt EW FREDDIE JACOBSEN @ 40/1 (365, BET DIRECT, VICTOR CHANDLER)

STATISTICS (AFTER WEEK 4)

PROFIT/LOSS: + 13.125 PTS