Links expert McDowell the one to beat

After a week of team golf that was part enthralling and part sleep inducing its back to the familiar terrain of strokeplay with two quality events either side of the Atlantic. Regular readers will know I'm no fan of pro-ams but the Dunhill Links Championship is the one exception. I can just about tolerate the fawning coverage of Michael Douglas, Hugh Grant and co because accompanying that nonsense is an intriguing golf tournament played on three of the finest links courses in the world, Carnoustie, Kingsbarn and two rounds at St Andrews.

David Howell's recent improvement certainly hasn't escaped the attention of bookmakers who have priced him up as a single-figure favourite for an event where he does, to be fair, possess a very impressive record. I'm sure Swindon's finest will be in the shake-up again but there is absolutely no way I'm taking those odds on a man who has still only won once in 7 years. Nevertheless, its very hard to see Howell being too far away on Sunday and he looks a banker for match and spread bets. With the usual market leader Ernie Els absent, Howell's closest rivals in the betting are world class Irish duo Padraig Harrington and Darren Clarke. Despite both being top drawer links exponents, lack of recent form and a season of personal problems make neither a very attractive betting proposition.

Instead my main focus is on another player from that part of the world. I've had GRAEME MCDOWELL earmarked for this tournament for a long while now. Raised in Northern Ireland playing the links at Royal Portrush, McDowell is a natural at this type of golf. Despite never threatening the leaderboard, his performance at this year's Open didn't escape my attention. But for a quadruple bogey at the Road Hole on Saturday, Graeme would have finished runner-up but 11th place was still a quality finish in a Major. After a brilliant third-place in world class company at the Bay Hill Invitational early in the year, it does come as a surprise that this tremendous prospect hasn't won this season but, having only lost in a play-off here last year, the Dunhill Links is probably the best chance he'll have.

LEE WESTWOOD used to hate St Andrews and links golf but has improved leaps and bounds at this type of golf in recent years. When he defeated Ernie Els here two years ago, it was in my view the best performance in the 4 years of this event. Despite looking back to his best this year when competing well in the highest company at Sawgrass, the USPGA and NEC Invitational, for reasons that defy logic this prolific winner still hasn't won since that 2003 triumph. I am certain Lee will win again soon and he arrives here fresh after a much lighter autumn schedule than usual.

As always on links courses there are many players who just aren't suited to the conditions and can be confidently written off. Bradley Dredge and Nick Dougherty, both in pretty hot form, have no previous pedigree for example. Even the mightily impressive Henrik Stenson has questions to answer this week. One player who seems to have very much got the hang of links golf in recent years is IAN POULTER. He's made gradual progress in this event, 35th in 2002, 16th in 2003 before last year's 3rd place. Of even more interest was his strong showing at this year's Open at St Andrews and as I've suggested in recent weeks, Poulter will be busting a gut in these final few weeks of the season to keep his fine record of one win for every year he's been on Tour.

Several of last week's Presidents Cup contestants line up in this week's Chrysler Classic of Greensboro but I wonder how many will instantly reproduce their form. The best of them must be Adam Scott, who looked in superb nick again last week when teaming up with Goosen for 3.5 points out of 4. He looks the one to beat this week as fellow favourite Sergio Garcia has looked anything but convincing with the putter lately. The Chrysler has never been a tournament dominated by the market leaders anyway so I'm looking further down the market for my selections.

KJ CHOI was a surprise absentee from the International team, having just failed to qualify after a mediocre year. The Korean has winning form in both the States and Europe as well as some excellent form in Majors so I wouldn't imagine his drought will continue for long. Last week's missed cut is obviously a slight concern but KJ's form at Greensboro is so good that I'm still prepared to take a chance at 40/1. His last three visits have all yielded top-7 finishes as he just loves these huge bentgrass greens.

After several decent finishes without winning recently, JEFF BREHAUT must come into the reckoning on the basis of his course form at 80/1. As one of the lesser lights on this Tour, consecutive top-10 finishes in this event shows he reserves his best for Forest Oaks and 2005 has been Jeff's best year to date. Finally, once again I'm persevering with BO VAN PELT, who I'm adamant is more than up to winning in this company. A few moderate efforts have seen Bo's price drift back out to a very reasonable 66/1 and I'd never forgive myself if I avoided him this week and he won as his course form is progressive.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

DUNHILL LINKS CHAMPIONSHIP

3pts ew GRAEME MCDOWELL @ 28/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
3pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 22/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, BET365)
2pts ew IAN POULTER @ 28/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

CHRYSLER CLASSIC OF GREENSBORO
1pt ew KJ CHOI @ 40/1 (BLUESQ, HILLS, LADBROKES)
1pt ew BO VAN PELT @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JEFF BREHAUT @ 80/1 (BLUESQ, STAN JAMES, BETFRED)

US To Take Another Matchplay Beating

For those who like to watch golf on telly, it doesn't come much better than this week with 52 hours of live golf to look forward to. For those who like to have a serious confident punt on golf, however, this is one of the worst weeks of the year. Most of the attention will be on the two star-studded team events taking place either side of the Atlantic, the Presidents Cup and the Seve Trophy, but there is also a strokeplay event on the PGA Tour, the Valero Texas Open.

First to the Presidents Cup, a match that attempts to imitate the Ryder Cup between the US and an International team made up of players from everywhere else in the world bar Europe. As usual the bookmakers favour the US, who do benefit from home advantage from which they have never failed to win. But essentially we are talking about the same bunch of individuals that surrendered so tamely to the Europeans despite home advantage last year. As I've argued before, the qualities required for matchplay team events are worlds apart from strokeplay which determines world rankings and this US team look sorely lacking in the crucial departments. In any case, the International team are hardly noticeably inferior even on paper as the Europeans usually are. It is true that they will miss their injured talisman Ernie Els, but Vijay Singh, Retief Goosen and Adam Scott are all superior to every European. Even the weakest players in the International side like Nick O'Hern, Trevor Immelman and Peter Lonard compare at least equally with Fred Funk, Fred Couples and Scott Verplank.

Individuals are of less importance in these events than team spirit and motivation. On these two scores, the US fails miserably. Doubtless Tiger Woods will be picked for every round, despite his atrocious form in tournaments of this kind which he quite freely admits means nothing to him compared to the rigours of strokeplay. Clearly he isn't a team player and anyone who saw Phil Mickelson at the last Ryder Cup must have grave doubts.

Aside a decent bet on the Internationals to win the cup, my interest in the tournament will be enhanced with a few bets on the top points scorer for each side. The only US player to emerge from the Ryder Cup with any credit was CHRIS DIMARCO who fought bravely for his dejected side. This weak strokeplay finisher seemed to revel in matchplay and looks great each-way value at 12/1. Dimarco's recent form is up there with the best of them too, as long as you're prepared to overlook his inability to close out tournaments though he was slightly unlucky when touched off at Firestone by the Tiger last month.

Another American who makes appeal here is the ultra-consistent JIM FURYK at 9/1. Furyk is another gritty competitor who has enjoyed the team matchplay format in the past, boasting an awesome Ryder Cup singles record. With Tiger and Mickelson taking much out of the book and representing truly awful value, a third bet is justified on SCOTT VERPLANK at 22/1. Though one of the lesser lights in the team, Scotty has the awesome short game required in matchplay and on the basis of his excellent Ryder Cup form should get plenty of scoring opportunities.

Picking a particular individual to shine in the International side is much more difficult as I can't say there's anybody who will obviously struggle. For an interest, I suggest a couple of small bets on favourite VIJAY SINGH and NICK O'HERN. Vijay takes this tournament just as seriously as anyone as he loves the rivalry with American players who have never really accepted him. Remember his infamous but ill advised 'Tiger Who?' hat from four years ago? Since then, his PGA Tour peers declined to give him a blatantly deserved Player of the Year award so I'll bet there's no love lost. The only difference between Vijay's current form and his world beating stuff of the last couple of years is a cold putter. I have a theory that the poorer putters improve in matchplay, perhaps due to the goodwill received from team-mates and also the extra determination that comes from responsibility. Monty's matchplay form is a great example of this and I expect an improved putting display from Singh this week. Plus there is the extra advantage of knowing that the Fijian is a stone cold certainty to play all 5 matches here.

O'Hern rates worthy of a speculative each-way punt. Very much like Dimarco, the ultra-consistent left-hander is hopeless at closing out individual strokeplay events and seems to prefer this format. For a player who I've always had down as an arch-bottler, I was pleasantly surprised to see this Aussie hold his nerve to defeat Tiger at this year's World Matchplay.

I have to be honest and admit that the thought of the Seve Trophy turns me cold. The success of the Ryder Cup and to a lesser extent the Presidents Cup motivated the creation of this event 5 years ago but it hasn't managed to catch the public's imagination. The problem stems from the fact that a contest between the UK & Ireland and continental Europe lacks any meaningful rivalry. These lads play on the same tour most weeks and have developed a strong cameraderie in Ryder Cups over the last 20 years. The result is a tournament that gives the impression of being a bit of end of season fun - an afterthought in the players' schedules.

With all this in mind, I may well trade the outright result in running but cannot recommend an opinion. Nevertheless, golf is golf and I will have a few small interest bets on the top scorer markets. For continental Europe, lets side with in-form Swedish duo HENRIK STENSON and NICLAS FASTH. Stenson in particular is really going places and the competition here doesn't look very strong. Jean-Francois Remesy, Peter Hanson and Emanuelle Canonica particularly stand out as not being top class but even they can't be entirely ruled out in a contest like this.

For GB and Ireland, notably lacking Luke Donald and Darren Clarke, I like the look of IAN POULTER and GRAEME MCDOWELL. Feisty competitor Poulter looks particularly well suited to matchplay as his form in the World Matchplay shows. He always strikes me as the sort of streaky player who throws away a lot of rounds with one or two bad holes. With a disaster only costing one hole in this format, players like this often improve in matchplay. Similar comments apply to exciting prospect McDowell. This attacking player is bound to win many holes with birdies and has proven very reliable in team events in the past when a key member of the Walker Cup winning side as an amateur.

On to Texas then, for an unbelievably trappy contest. All the shrewd research and even a touch of mysticism couldn't have predicted the last two winners on this course, 200/1 shots Tommy Armour III and Bart Bryant. LaCantera is one of the easiest tracks on the Tour - target golf at its worst with a very low winning score assured. With all this in mind, again stakes must be kept to an absolute minimum at least until the weekend. The market leaders make no appeal as they are either out of form like Chad Campbell and KJ Choi or poor finishers like Rod Pampling, Jerry Kelly and Charles Howell. Instead I'm having a couple of each-way punts on in-form VAUGHAN TAYLOR and ace putter CARL PETTERSSON.

Since successfully defending his maiden Tour win at the Reno-Tahoe Classic, the promising Taylor has held his form with finishes of 3rd, 12th and 32nd. On that basis, he looks the one to beat in a very weak field. Swede Pettersson really is a speculative punt as he is still looking for his first win in the States. This time last year, he put in string of high finishes and his last two efforts suggest once again Carl has found his form for the autumn. 4th on his penultimate outing, 17th at the weekend was just about the worst possible position as a winning chance was surrendered with a couple of disaster holes on Sunday.

Good Luck!

PRESIDENTS CUP

7pts win INTERNATIONALS @ 6/4 (BET DIRECT, STAN JAMES, BLUESQ)

TOP US SCORER

3pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 12/1 (PADDY POWER, BLUESQ)
1.5pts ew JIM FURYK @ 9/1 (BLUESQ)
1pt ew SCOTT VERPLANK @ 22/1 (CORALS)

TOP INTERNATIONAL SCORER

2pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 7/2 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew NICK O'HERN @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

SEVE TROPHY

TOP EURO SCORER

1pt win HENRIK STENSON @ 6/1 (HILLS)
1pt win NICLAS FASTH @ 15/2 (SPORTING ODDS, PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES)

TOP GB & IRE SCORER

1pt win IAN POULTER @ 8/1 (BLUESQ)
1pt win GRAEME MCDOWELL @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

VALERO TEXAS OPEN

1pt ew VAUGHAN TAYLOR @ 28/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)