Cheltenham Day One Advice
Having studied Timeform and what seems a like a million other guides obsessively for the last few days, I've drawn some fairly strong conclusions about the first day. As hard as I try to find decent-priced value, I just keep coming back to some very obvious favourites. The dilemma then is always whether their short prices are worth the risk, but thankfully there's a much better way of siding with all of todays 'good things' while not suffering too much heartache if one runs a cracker and gets touched off in a photo-finish.
The bet is to buy the Racing Post Favourites Index at 47. Scoring is calculated at 25 points per win, 10 points per 2nd placing, 5 pts per third. So two winners out of six will guarantee a profit, while only a truly disastrous day would be especially costly. The first five selections all have blindlingly obvious chances. In the first, SWEET WAKE creates exactly the type of price dilemma I referred to. The optimism and money behind this unexposed animal suggests we could well be getting a preview of next year's Champion Hurdle winner, but is less than 3/1 value in such a competitive field? I suspect he is, as I'm struggling too many dangerous rivals, but prefer the spread betting route in case he comes second.
The Arkle is the highlight of the day in my opinion, and RACING DEMON represents my bet of the day. This one was my nap at last year's festival, and I was absolutely gutted to see a 25/1 winner go down the pan when he was caught on the line by No Refuge having traded 1.01 in-running. As high quality as the field is, I do think Racing Demon has by far the greatest potential, and probably boasts the best form on offer in his beating of Hoo La Baloo. Henrietta Knight's cotton-wool strategy has meant we've seen less of this prospect than might have otherwise been the case, hence the attractive 5/1 on offer. Its impossible to not draw comparisons with Best Mate, and Knight knew exactly what she was doing when shielding her superstar from unnecessary races in unsuitable conditions.
In the Champion, Brave Inca is a lovely horse to have onside in the spread bet, but I think the price is plenty short enough at 2/1, especially with the dangerous Arcalis around. Here. my idea of the each-way value is Nicky Richards' FAASEL. Despite the poor record of 5yos in this race, I'm expecting we'll see his best run of the season today as he simply loves the conditions today, with a fast pace guaranteed.
Similarly in the 4.00, once again there is a question mark surrounding the value of favourite, MOULIN RICHE. A winner at the Festival last year, I think this one could be thrown in but there are still plenty of dangers around such as Dun Doire and No Half Session. With JP expected to play, I doubt any more than 4/1 will be available on Moulin Riche, but I'm delighted to have him onside with the RP Favourites spread bet.
The Sporting Index Cross-Country Chase (4.35) looks a nightmare punting race. Edna Bolger probably has the solution with three solid contenders, the best of which looks to be GOOD STEP who is our spread bet selection. I have a suspicion here that the race will be wide open, and the market leaders might be a bit short. Try a couple of each-way bets on horses certain to stay the marathon trip and who like the course in LORD JACK and MRS BEE.
The final race, the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle, looks exactly the type of lottery one might expect from the race title with none of the 24 runners confidently ruled out. However, using the ever-wise Timeform previews, I might just have found one thrown in. ROSECLIFF looks a guarateed improver who has been laid out for this by his shrewd connections. It was no surprise to see lots of money around for this one last night. Also in this race, I think Paul Nicholls' runner OPERA MUNDI has some improvement and rates a decent each-way bet at attractive odds. Our spread selection in this race is Nicky Henderson's ROYALS DARLING, which is the one of our selections I don't fancy particularly but obviously you'd never write off a Henderson runner in such a contest.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
BUY RACING POST FAVOURITES INDEX 3pts @ 47
2.35 4pts win RACING DEMON @ SP
3.15 1pt ew FAASEL @ SP
4.40 1pt ew LORD JACK @ 25/1 (SPORTING ODDS, UKBETTING)
4.40 1pt ew MRS BEE @ 20/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
5.20 2pts win ROSECLIFF @ 9/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
5.20 0.5pts ew OPERA MUNDI @ SP
The bet is to buy the Racing Post Favourites Index at 47. Scoring is calculated at 25 points per win, 10 points per 2nd placing, 5 pts per third. So two winners out of six will guarantee a profit, while only a truly disastrous day would be especially costly. The first five selections all have blindlingly obvious chances. In the first, SWEET WAKE creates exactly the type of price dilemma I referred to. The optimism and money behind this unexposed animal suggests we could well be getting a preview of next year's Champion Hurdle winner, but is less than 3/1 value in such a competitive field? I suspect he is, as I'm struggling too many dangerous rivals, but prefer the spread betting route in case he comes second.
The Arkle is the highlight of the day in my opinion, and RACING DEMON represents my bet of the day. This one was my nap at last year's festival, and I was absolutely gutted to see a 25/1 winner go down the pan when he was caught on the line by No Refuge having traded 1.01 in-running. As high quality as the field is, I do think Racing Demon has by far the greatest potential, and probably boasts the best form on offer in his beating of Hoo La Baloo. Henrietta Knight's cotton-wool strategy has meant we've seen less of this prospect than might have otherwise been the case, hence the attractive 5/1 on offer. Its impossible to not draw comparisons with Best Mate, and Knight knew exactly what she was doing when shielding her superstar from unnecessary races in unsuitable conditions.
In the Champion, Brave Inca is a lovely horse to have onside in the spread bet, but I think the price is plenty short enough at 2/1, especially with the dangerous Arcalis around. Here. my idea of the each-way value is Nicky Richards' FAASEL. Despite the poor record of 5yos in this race, I'm expecting we'll see his best run of the season today as he simply loves the conditions today, with a fast pace guaranteed.
Similarly in the 4.00, once again there is a question mark surrounding the value of favourite, MOULIN RICHE. A winner at the Festival last year, I think this one could be thrown in but there are still plenty of dangers around such as Dun Doire and No Half Session. With JP expected to play, I doubt any more than 4/1 will be available on Moulin Riche, but I'm delighted to have him onside with the RP Favourites spread bet.
The Sporting Index Cross-Country Chase (4.35) looks a nightmare punting race. Edna Bolger probably has the solution with three solid contenders, the best of which looks to be GOOD STEP who is our spread bet selection. I have a suspicion here that the race will be wide open, and the market leaders might be a bit short. Try a couple of each-way bets on horses certain to stay the marathon trip and who like the course in LORD JACK and MRS BEE.
The final race, the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle, looks exactly the type of lottery one might expect from the race title with none of the 24 runners confidently ruled out. However, using the ever-wise Timeform previews, I might just have found one thrown in. ROSECLIFF looks a guarateed improver who has been laid out for this by his shrewd connections. It was no surprise to see lots of money around for this one last night. Also in this race, I think Paul Nicholls' runner OPERA MUNDI has some improvement and rates a decent each-way bet at attractive odds. Our spread selection in this race is Nicky Henderson's ROYALS DARLING, which is the one of our selections I don't fancy particularly but obviously you'd never write off a Henderson runner in such a contest.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
BUY RACING POST FAVOURITES INDEX 3pts @ 47
2.35 4pts win RACING DEMON @ SP
3.15 1pt ew FAASEL @ SP
4.40 1pt ew LORD JACK @ 25/1 (SPORTING ODDS, UKBETTING)
4.40 1pt ew MRS BEE @ 20/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
5.20 2pts win ROSECLIFF @ 9/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
5.20 0.5pts ew OPERA MUNDI @ SP
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 2:37 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home