Ronnie Set For Welsh Hat-trick

With the World Championships only 6 weeks away, the snooker season moves on to the Welsh Open event where World No 1 RONNIE O'SULLIVAN is seeking to win for the third consecutive year. He has every chance to do so. Last month's Masters tournament at Wembley was a perfect illustration of the state of the game's elite at the moment. Most of the matches were of a very low standard compared to recent years, and finalists O'Sullivan and John Higgins looked a class apart. There are players in the top-16 with the pedigree to beat the pair - Matthew Stevens, Stephen Hendry, Mark Williams, Shaun Murphy, Stephen Maguire for example - but all have their problems. Hendry and Williams seem in decline, particularly the latter. Stevens rarely seems committed away from the Crucible, Murphy's form is in long matches. Maguire, potentially the best of the lot, has had an awful season. Its no wonder that an experienced campaigner like Ken Doherty has suddenly re-emerged as a major contender without playing noticeably better than in recent years.

With Ronnie, any bet has to take his fragile temparement into account. Regular readers will know I'm far from his biggest fan. Generally, odds of around 2/1 are spectacularly bad value considering his career record, but at Wembley his attitude was exemplary and form superb. Clearly Ronnie takes certain events more seriously than others, Wembley being the most obvious example, and the Welsh Open looks like another as he has won the tournament for the past two years. The draw could not have been kinder. He could probably reach the quarter finals playing left-handed before a potentially tough match against Ken Doherty awaits. Beyond that, his semi final opponent looks like being one of Stephen Maguire, Peter Ebdon or Graham Dott. While 9/4 doesn't exactly scream value, I'm pretty confident that once he dispatches his first two opponents, Ronnie's price won't be much above Evens.

Its interesting that, despite being the best player this season without question, John Higgins is still over twice the odds of O'Sullivan. Twice they have met in finals this year, and twice Higgins has come out on top. In the last four events, the only man to beat Higgins is Ken Doherty, the latest courtesy of a miraculous comeback in the Malta final. Like Ronnie, Higgins has little meaningful opposition prior to the quarter finals where he would probably meet either Stephen Hendry or BARRY HAWKINS - a tough match either way. This match is the most likely impediment to Higgins reaching the final so two bets look worth a mention. Firstly, Paddy Power have a market for naming the two finalists in which a HIGGINS/O'SULLIVAN final looks a strong favourite at 6/1. Secondly, its worth having an interest on Hawkins for the outright. Hendry looks vulnerable these days as he seems to always throw in one really poor performance in each tournament, and seems to have particular trouble in long-drawn out affairs. Semi-finalist at Preston where he went down by the odd frame in 11 to Ronnie, Hawkins remains a fine prospect, and well up to reaching a ranking final of this standard.

The bottom quarter looks much more open, with Shaun Murphy representing the class. As fine a prospect as the World Champion surely is, that week at Sheffield remains the only time that he has reached a ranking event final. It may just be that he is less comfortable in the shorter-frames format, as has been the case for years with Matthew Stevens. Until Murphy comprehensively proves he has the credentials in such tournaments, I can't be taking skinny odds of 11/1. In this section I think the each-way value is represented by ALASTAIR CARTER at 80/1. Prior to last year's World Championship, Carter was rated closely to Murphy as a prospect. Personally I doubt this is the case as Ali seems to lack the big match temparament of Shaun, but it would come as no surprise to me were he to win an event or two of this stature in the forthcoming seasons. Certainly from an odds perspective, he makes much more appeal than the significantly shorter priced Stevens and Mark Williams, who are in the same section of the draw.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

10pts win RONNIE O'SULLIVAN @ 9/4 (12/5 WITH SPORTING ODDS)
5pts RONNIE O'SULLIVAN/JOHN HIGGINS FINAL @ 6/1 (PADDY POWER)
1pt ew BARRY HAWKINS @ 66/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ALASTAIR CARTER @ 80/1 (SKYBET, TOTE)

Matchplay Expert Donald Ready For WGC Marathon

The WGC World Matchplay is probably the only big tournament of the year where literally every player has a chance of winning. The 18-hole matchplay format has proved time and again to be the greatest leveller in golf, and any player who gets on a hot streak with the putter can suddenly find themselves in the latter stages of this knockout event. A look at the list of previous 7 winners partly tells the story. Jeff Maggert, Steve Stricker and Kevin Sutherland were absolutely out of the blue and available at big three figure prices. Darren Clarke and David Toms were more realistic middle-priced winners while Tiger Woods has won it twice. However, Tiger's victories both occurred in years where the course was very damp and long-hitters had an advantage, which will not be the case this week with accuracy now of greater importance. In other years, Woods has been humbled by Peter O'Malley and Nick O'Hern so he is still very beatable. He looks well worh taking on with a potentially tough draw, with matchplay expert Robert Allenby, defending champion David Toms, Adam Scott, Chad Campbell and Henrik Stenson all in the same quarter. Tiger also has to prove he has fully overcome the flu-bug that forced him to withdraw at Riviera on Saturday, and if there is one crucial asset required to win this event, it would be physical fitness with up to 126 holes played over five days. With all this against him, I'm extremely tempted to lay Woods at 6.2 on Betfair.

All the other leading players have records ranging from the promising like Phil Mickelson who has won 60% of his matches here without ever reaching the semis, to the poor Ernie Els (33% win ratio). Ernie is one of many players who have voiced their dislike for this type of lottery golf, a useful thing to know for match betting purposes and in eliminating likely contenders from our thoughts. Other players with distinctly poor records here are Stuart Appleby, Vijay Singh, Padraig Harrington, Kenny Perry and Colin Montgomerie.

One of the golden rules of betting at the World Matchplay in previous years has been to back American players, who supposedly enjoy home advantage in conditions they are used to. The only non-US winner of the event in seven runnings was Darren Clarke, who stands out as one of the few Europeans happy with the format. The world's top 64 is looking a lot more international nowadays though, and most of the European contenders now regularly play in the States. None more so than LUKE DONALD, who is based there. Its no secret that Luke is expected to reach the pinnacle of the game, and he's proved a consistent, worthy member of the world's top 20 already even if he hasn't notched up the expected multiple wins yet. I think he's ready to move up another notch on the international stage this year and has chances in the Majors, but it may be the case that matchplay is the format we're likely to see the best of Luke. Everything points to it. His amateur matchplay record was prolific, he had a fine debut in the Ryder Cup. And on his first visit last year to La Costa, he won his first two matches impressively. There's nothing wrong with recent form with two top-12 finishes over the past fortnight, and his ultra-accuracy from the tee is the most important asset at La Costa.

All the value lies in the bottom half of the draw, which excludes Woods' quarter as well as the one containing Els and Mickelson. With Vijay and Goosen unfancied, and Davis Love out of form, Donald very much looks the class act in this half of the draw, along with Jim Furyk, CHRIS DIMARCO and Darren Clarke. Dimarco was runner-up here last year, and clearly loves the format having played a starring role in the recent US Presidents Cup victory and was also the only American to emerge with distinction from the last Ryder Cup. The contest of matchplay seems to bring out a more competitive side to Chris's personality that is not always seen in normal strokeplay affairs. As I've said in recent weeks that I really fancy Dimarco for a big year, and last week's surprise missed cut has not deterred me in the slightest from sticking with him here.

I never thought I'd see the day when I'd be tipping PAUL MCGINLEY to win an event in the US, but that time has arrived. A lifelong bottler of mediocre strokeplay events in Europe, McGinley suddenly came good with a massive win at the season ending Volvo Masters in Spain and has started the season in the US in fine, consistent form. But the real argument behind backing the popular Irishman is that matchplay has always been his forte. As with Dimarco, McGinley has shown a different side when playing this format in the Ryder Cup and more recently finished runner-up to Michael Campbell at the other World Matchplay event at Wentworth. The draw has also been kind, being in the easier half and opening with a match against Shingo Katayama, who has yet to win a match here in four visits.

Another European with a decent outside chance is Sweden's CARL PETTERSSON at 125/1. Like Donald, Pettersson is permanently based in the States so any issue of home advantage is negated. Two excellent rounds of 68 at Riviera to close at the weekend marked a nice return of form for Pettersson, whose early 2006 form has not matched up to the expectations created by a fine finish to 2005. There's certainly nothing particularly fearsome about his first-round opponent, Kenny Perry.

I am going to have one bet in the top half of the draw, a small interest on BART BRYANT at a tasty 125/1. Making his debut after an amazing rise up the rankings with three wins over the last 18 months, Bryant's accurate game looks tailor-made for La Costa. I fancy Bart strongly to win his first round match against under-par John Daly before a potential last-32 clash against Mickelson. In all three of those victories, Bryant showed he has tremendous bottle under the toughest head to head conditions, so he won't be scared and should he win, the draw could open up nicely.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

WGC MATCHPLAY

2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PAUL MCGINLEY @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew BART BRYANT @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-68.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

New Sports Betting Advisory Service

As you can see, I provide a weekly analysis of the best golf bets on this site free of charge, along with the occasional snooker or politics preview. These make up a very small percentage of my turnover every week and are basically just an introduction to the events in question.I am now also providing a subscription service for a more comprehensive daily analysis of the day's best value.There will be a mixture of outright bets, and in-running trades.

Two subscription options are available. For £10 per week, you'll get the comprehensive golf analysis which will consist of at least three e-mails each week. At the start of the week, I'll pinpoint the early trading value and then after Rounds 2 and 3, I'll advise you of all the best trades ahead of that day's play.The other option is, at £20 per week, a comprehensive analysis of all the sporting events that my attention will be focussed on. Apart from golf, the main sports I cover are cricket, snooker, international football, top-class National Hunt racing and the occasional tennis tournament. As well as these, I'll share any politics betting advice if and when a suitable market arises.

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Good Luck!

Els set for triumphant Riviera return

For those of us addicted to golf betting and quite happy to follow our fortunes over the internet, this is a special week. This is one of the very few weeks where we can bet live in-running 24/7 in the shape of four tournaments worldwide, in the US, Malaysia, South Africa and Australia. The one I'm most likely to ignore is the Australian event, but by far the most prestigious is the annual Nissan Open at Riviera Country Club, California.

Tiger Woods bids to win his fourth consecutive event, but the man to beat is ERNIE ELS. Since returning from injury in December, Ernie has shown the layoff has done his game no harm at all with two excellent weeks at home in South Africa prior to another play-off defeat to Woods in Dubai. As disappointed as Els must have been with that loss, he must also have been re-assured to have matched Woods and I'm expecting a big run from Els over the next few weeks in the run-up to Augusta. Few better opportunities exist than a tournament played at Riviera Country Club, one of his favourite courses, where he was 3rd in the 1995 USPGA and won a top class Nissan in 1999. Imagine a Major was being played on this course, Els would be no more than 10/1 against a vastly stronger field yet he is 9/1 on Betfair to win this.

Ernie's chance is made even more obvious when we consider the Riviera record of the favourite, Woods. Tiger has yet to win here in 8 attempts and has only made the top-5 on two occasions. Twice this year already Woods has proven that he remains capable of winning without playing anywhere near his best, but surely that can't be extended to the courses that suit him least.

Prior to last year's rain-shortened win for Adam Scott, the Nissan has proved a tournament for the more experienced players, with Els at 29 the only previous winner under the age of 30. One player who I could see matching the Nissan winner's profile is CHRIS DIMARCO. At 37, Dimarco now looks to be approaching his peak since his starring performance for the US in the Presidents Cup. Previously a very nervy, unreliable finisher, he looked a completely different character when winning gutsily from the front in Abu Dhabi. The following efforts at home have been solid if unspectacular but confirm that Chris remains in form. He looks exactly the kind of shot-maker to prosper here, even though he has only one good Nissan performance from six (6th in 2002).

Another classy, experienced shot-maker who could come into his own this week is JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL. Over the past year, the dual Masters champion has re-established himself as a world class player on both sides of the Atlantic, with several near misses in big tournaments and just the one victory in Spain. The recent play-off defeat to Tiger was no fluke and 14th place at Pebble Beach was another solid effort. Certainly, there are few tournaments where Olazabal would have a better chance in the States than here, and I reckon he's still capable of another decent prize.

The European Tour event in Malaysia has a rather tricky look to it, not least because we have no previous course form to work from. Normally the golden rule in such events is to stick with the handful of top class overseas players, but in this case only two players fit that description, Padraig Harrington and MIGUEL ANGEL-JIMINEZ. Harrington opens his annual campaign in Malaysia for the sixth year running, but hasn't won on any of the other 5 occasions and can't be fancied in a tournament he admits is basically a warm-up. Jiminez, on the other hand, had two good weeks out of three during the Desert Swing and a fine record in the Far East. A repeat of his 4th place behind Woods and Els a fortnight ago in Dubai would yield an easy victory at this level, and while 8/1 is still hardly giving money away, the Spaniard must enter the staking plan.

Other than Harrington, his principal rival is Thongchai Jaidee, who aims to win the event for the third consecutive victory. Time and again, Jaidee has shown he can compete with the world's best in Asian conditions, though his most recent Asian Tour form has not been anywhere near his best. Nevertheless, Jaidee played well in the Gulf and is bound to be there or thereabouts, but I'm avoiding his miserly 12/1 quote. Similarly, Jyoti Randhawa has chances but makes no appeal at the price.

Of the Asian players, I prefer the chances of THAWORN WIRATCHANT at 25/1. Wiratchant looked every bit as good as Jaidee and Randhawa on the Asian Tour last year yet is double the odds of the former. He played an absolute blinder when 8th in China behind Howell, Woods and a star-studded leaderboard and will be hard to keep out of the places here.

In a weak field, young ROSS FISHER looks a nice each-way bet. Fisher has looked an extremely promising recruit to the European Tour over the winter months, and 12th in Perth at the weekend was another fine effort. Twice Fisher has got himself right into contention only to get stagefright, in China and South Africa. Hopefully those experiences will have been a learning curve, as he is certainly one to follow.

Unfortunately bookmakers have been very slow to price up the events in Australia and South Africa, with only one show on either event available at the moment. The Jacobs Creek Open looks a wide open event in Australia, and my only interest is going to be a bet on one of my regular big priced selections, WADE ORMSBY at 50/1. I'm convinced Ormsby has at least a win at this level in him, and quite possibly a lot more on the European Tour.

I can only guess at the likely odds for the Telkom PGA Championship in South Africa, but can be pretty sure Charl Schwartzel will be favourite. He certainly sets the standard on recent form but played poorly on his only previous visit to this Johannesburg course. The player I like the look of is RICHARD STERNE. 5th in this event last year, Sterne played really well when 16th in Dubai on his latest start, so he arrives in-form and hopefully well set for a tilt at this following a week off.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

NISSAN OPEN

5pts win ERNIE ELS @ 17/2 (SKYBET, BET365)
2pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

MALAYSIAN OPEN

4pts win MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew THAWORN WIRATCHANT @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew ROSS FISHER @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 66/1 BSQ)

TELKOM PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

2pts ew RICHARD STERNE @ 16/1 OR BIGGER

JACOBS CREEK OPEN

1pt ew WADE ORMSBY @ 50/1 (SKYBET)

Campbell gunning for Vines hat-trick

With the 'Desert Swing' section of the European Tour now complete, another world class field moves on to Australia for the Johnnie Walker Classic. The venue, The Vines course in Perth, was the scene of some of my most vivid memories in golf betting when it used to stage the Heineken Classic. Ernie Els' shock defeat to rookie Jarrod Moseley after surrendering a six shot lead over the last 12 holes in 1999 remains the most unlikely comeback I've ever been on the end of, but happier times ensued for me over the following two years with consecutive victories for MICHAEL CAMPBELL.

When betting in this particular part of the world, be it on golf or cricket, it is imperative to know the local weather conditions. As sure as night follows day, strong winds known as the Fremantle Doctor arrive in the late afternoon and have a significant effect on scoring. Therefore an early tee-time is a big advantage, perhaps more than in any other event this season.

A look at the previous roll-call of winners show this is, typically of Australian courses, a course that separates the in-form classy players from the rest. Separation will happen pretty early in my view, and I'm confident that at least a couple of my early-starting quartet will be firmly entrenched on the leaderboard by Friday night. Campbell is definitely the one to beat. Bang in contention right up until the closing holes on his only 2006 outing at Hawaii, the Brighton-based Kiwi is bound to be well prepared for a tilt on what must be his favourite courses after those Heineken wins. I'm expecting Cambo to continue the superb form showed after winning the US Open last June and cement his place in the game's elite.

The other extremely obvious challenger is RETIEF GOOSEN. It has to be a slight concern that Goose missed the cut on both his previous Vines visits, but I'm ignoring them because he is a completely different player to the average Euro-tour performer of 1998 and 1999. After looking the likely winner in the ultimate company in Dubai on his seasonal debut, a disappointing weekend left him in sixth place behind Woods. That is still a very high level to set the bar here and its worth remembering that Goosen said afterwards that he had felt the effects of his winter break over the weekend. If he gets back to the form prior to Christmas that bagged four wins, he will take some beating in every event. With an early start, I doubt we'll see much more than 6/1 again over the weekend.

PAUL CASEY always has to be taken seriously in this part of the world. Four of six visits to the country have yielded top-5 finishes, including one win, and he comes here in good order. On the fringes of things all weekend, I still harboured outside hopes of a place for Casey until he dropped a couple of shots from the 70th hole onwards. Again the early start makes 25/1 look particularly attractive.

There's no question who the locals will be cheering for, as NICK O'HERN returns to his home state. The left-hander has a spectacularly consistent record pretty much everywhere these days but even more so in Australia and very much went into the notebook with a closing round 66 at the weekend. As always, any bet on Nick has to be tempered with the fact that he is a notoriously weak finisher, but the place odds alone justify a bet. If you take the 20/1 though, don't forget to have a saver if he goes odds-on!

Of the rest, Adam Scott is hampered by a late start, and seems to underperform in his own country. Colin Montgomerie played very poorly in Dubai and could struggle. Robert Allenby can't be overlooked after winning three on the bounce in Australia just before Christmas, but did little at Scottsdale last week and has never got into contention at The Vines. The one other contender I do fancy is Peter Lonard, who has only been overlooked because of his late start.

Another pro-am lies ahead over the weekend on the US PGA Tour, albeit the best pro-am of the year at the AT & T Pebble Beach pro-am. Despite the easier conditions set up to not embarrass the celebrities, the tough test of Pebble Beach usually ensures this is another tournament where the class players dominate. Played over three courses with two at Pebble Beach, the small greens there are particularly influential placing a great emphasis on greens in regulation.

Despite letting me down twice at short prices already in 2006. defending champion PHIL MICKELSON is impossible to leave out of the staking plan. Despite not being in his absolute best form, Phil has finished top-10 on all three outings so far. His record at this time of year, the "West Coast Swing", is awesome and I expect he will win at least one event before its finish.

JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL has put together several nice performances in this event, with three top-16 finishes in the last five years. This is interesting because at various stages in that period, the Spaniard's long game has been in crisis. He's probably never come into the event in better form than now, fresh from a play-off defeat to Tiger Woods at Torrey Pines. Last week's missed cut at Scottsdale can be seen as a reaction to that, compounded on an unsuitable course, and is easily ignored.

Of the other contenders, JIM FURYK looks bound to be on the premises. He has looked a winner in waiting on both 2006 starts in Hawaii, and also can boast lots of Pebble Beach form. Vijay Singh though, despite several good previous showings here, is overlooked after a couple of moderate weeks. I know the guy is a workaholic but its hard to see why he should be improving on his sixth consecutive playing week. Mike Weir looks bound to give his showing on his favourite course, but the odds of 33/1 are more than reflective of his chance considering his deterioration in recent years.

At a huge 250/1, I also recommend an interest on MATTHEW GOGGIN. This Aussie has looked an improved player in the last few months, with some good efforts at home and to win his PGA Tour card. His 2006 season has started promisingly, too, going well for a long way at the recent Buick Invitational. The piece of form that interests me is 8th place in this event four years ago, when a shadow of the player he is nowadays.

For spreads and matches, consistent TIM CLARK looks a good bet as usual. Top-10 on his last two visits, his accurate game is clearly suited to Pebble Beach's demands. For similar reasons, I fully expect LUKE DONALD to perform well here as well.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

JOHNNIE WALKER CLASSIC

5pts win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 12/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BET365, BLUESQ, CORAL)
5pts win RETIEF GOOSEN @ 13/2 (SPORTING ODDS, BET DIRECT, STAN JAMES)
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew NICK O'HERN @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

AT & T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM

5pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 5/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts win JIM FURYK @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 250/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BLUESQ)

MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS

SUPPORT TIM CLARK
SUPPORT LUKE DONALD

2006 STATS: (-19.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts