Betting previews for Scandinavian Masters and Buick Open
The venue for this week's Scandinavian Masters has proved very lucrative for me in the past. Barseback is the type of course that strongly favours the best players from tee to green, and subsequently the top-10 is normally packed with the obvious candidates. The problem this year is the lack of world-class players, certainly nobody fits the bill as obviously as Colin Montgomerie, Adam Scott or Luke Donald, the last three Barseback winners.
The betting is inevitably dominated by Swedes. Despite having 5 wins between them this year, Robert Karlsson and Johan Edfors have to cede favouritism to Ryder Cup probables CARL PETTERSSON and HENRIK STENSON. If Karlsson can reproduce last week's golf in Germany, he'd be a match for anyone in the world and a shoe-in here but back to back winners are very rare unless your name is Tiger Woods. Pettersson though, looks perfectly primed to contend again this week. Forget last week's missed cut, that came straight off a top-ten finish at the Open. Twice a winner in the States in the last nine months, Pettersson's form is at a higher level than anyone else in the field. There's course form on offer too - he finished 6th here in 2003 when half the player of today.
Stenson has the greatest long-term potential of the home contingent, and must rate worthy of a saver. His form over the winter, culminating in a magnificent 3rd place on his Sawgrass debut, seemed to establish Stenson as a world-class player. The problem is that his form has been moderate at best since an April win in Asia. As Henrik was a very creditable runner-up to Donald in 2004 on a course that very clearly suits, I'd still expect him to be there or thereabouts.
Another player just perfect for Barseback is SOREN HANSEN. 9th place in 2001 is the best of a moderate record for the Dane at Barseback. This is strange as Soren has always hit a high percentage of greens in regulation. 2006 has probably been his most consistent to date, making his last nine cuts and finishing runner-up on consecutive weeks in June. His two most recent outings at Loch Lomond and Gut Kaden have yielded top-15 finishes in markedly stronger company so a repetition would put him right in the thick of it here.
The similarly named PETER HANSEN also looks a sound each-way investment. A winner in Portugal last year, Hansen is generally no more than a consistent top-30 man in Europe but he usually comes to life on the courses that suit his rock-solid long game. He tied with Stenson in distant 2nd to Luke Donald here two years ago and also finished 9th in 2001. And finally in Europe, JARMO SANDELIN is yet another Swede worth a punt. Jarmo has been in better form recently than for years. After finishing the weekend strongly, this six-time European Tour winner looks a very likely contender here.
I'm probably unique in being primarily interested in events in Sweden this week as Tiger Woods makes a swift return from another facile Major win at the Buick Championship. I must confess to being a bit depressed after Tiger's Open stroll - not due to any dislike of the great man, rather its effect on golf betting. I have to be very confident about his motivation before backing him to win at less than 3/1, while at the same time worrying that he will end each event as a contest by Sunday. At least in compensation there's always some fun to be had trading his price in-running. Woods certainly has a superb course record. In seven outings at Warwick Hills, Tiger has won once, been runner-up twice and has a worst finish of 11th. Clearly he's going to be in contention so should his price drift after a slow start, I'll probably back him then. But for now I can't take short-odds on someone who has still not proved to have overcome driving troubles.
Spicing things up further, we have the spectacle of VIJAY SINGH chasing a third consecutive Buick win and a fourth career win at Warwick Hills. This ultra-proud workaholic will be desperate to set the record straight after Hoylake and a very rare missed cut in a Major. Prior to the Open, he'd looked quite resurgent over the previous three weeks, winning the Barclays Classic and finishing top-6 in the other two events. I suspect the Open was an aberration - he's never been a great links player anyway - and find it very hard to see Vijay out of the top-10 this week.
When you look at the course record of JIM FURYK, it is confirmed that this course favours the best players. Though the odds seem short, all the big three are highly likely to be in contention on Sunday. 2003 Buick winner Furyk has finished top-10 in six of the last seven years, and only once out of the top-20 in nine visits. Considering his game is as good as ever, testified by three consecutive top-4s including two Majors and an all-time high world ranking of 5th place, its hard to leave Furyk out of calculations despite miserly odds of 10/1.
Looking at the rest of the field, the only other players who stand out on course form are Open runner-up CHRIS DIMARCO and US Open champ Geoff Ogilvy. Regular readers will hopefully remember my long advocacy of Ogilvy as a prospect at big odds, but I just can't bring myself to back him at a best quote of 20/1. He now has the reputation of a Major winner to defend. But Dimarco is still pretty reasonable at 28/1. The only negative for me is that his Open heroics came out of the blue after an awful run of form. After a magnificent match-winning effort at last year's Presidents Cup and an early 2006 win in Abu Dhabi I really expected Dimarco to do big things this year. I don't see why Hoylake shouldn't be the turning point, as Chris seeks to cement a good run of form prior to the Ryder Cup where he will be a pivotal player.
As I said the rest of the field make little appeal, with two exceptions. I'm giving yet another chance to ZACH JOHNSON to build on a growing reputation. Zach is another one I expect to play a key Ryder Cup role, is well overdue a second Tour win and finished 2nd on his course debut last year. An even better value alternative is CAMILIO VILLEGAS at 150/1. This outstanding prospect has gone off the boil slightly after an outstanding first half of the season. Nevertheless he seems to prosper on the best courses and is likely to be threatening leaderboards again before very long.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
SCANDINAVIAN MASTERS
4pts ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 14/1 (BETFRED, BLUESQ, PADDY POWER, HILLS)
4pts win HENRIK STENSON @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew SOREN HANSEN @ 28/1 (BET365, EXPEKT, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew PETER HANSON @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JARMO SANDELIN @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
BUICK OPEN
4pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 11/1 (BETFRED, SKYBET, STAN JAMES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
4pts win JIM FURYK @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 28/1 (BET365, BET DIRECT, TOTE, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 150/1 (STAN JAMES)
2006 STATS: (-72.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
The betting is inevitably dominated by Swedes. Despite having 5 wins between them this year, Robert Karlsson and Johan Edfors have to cede favouritism to Ryder Cup probables CARL PETTERSSON and HENRIK STENSON. If Karlsson can reproduce last week's golf in Germany, he'd be a match for anyone in the world and a shoe-in here but back to back winners are very rare unless your name is Tiger Woods. Pettersson though, looks perfectly primed to contend again this week. Forget last week's missed cut, that came straight off a top-ten finish at the Open. Twice a winner in the States in the last nine months, Pettersson's form is at a higher level than anyone else in the field. There's course form on offer too - he finished 6th here in 2003 when half the player of today.
Stenson has the greatest long-term potential of the home contingent, and must rate worthy of a saver. His form over the winter, culminating in a magnificent 3rd place on his Sawgrass debut, seemed to establish Stenson as a world-class player. The problem is that his form has been moderate at best since an April win in Asia. As Henrik was a very creditable runner-up to Donald in 2004 on a course that very clearly suits, I'd still expect him to be there or thereabouts.
Another player just perfect for Barseback is SOREN HANSEN. 9th place in 2001 is the best of a moderate record for the Dane at Barseback. This is strange as Soren has always hit a high percentage of greens in regulation. 2006 has probably been his most consistent to date, making his last nine cuts and finishing runner-up on consecutive weeks in June. His two most recent outings at Loch Lomond and Gut Kaden have yielded top-15 finishes in markedly stronger company so a repetition would put him right in the thick of it here.
The similarly named PETER HANSEN also looks a sound each-way investment. A winner in Portugal last year, Hansen is generally no more than a consistent top-30 man in Europe but he usually comes to life on the courses that suit his rock-solid long game. He tied with Stenson in distant 2nd to Luke Donald here two years ago and also finished 9th in 2001. And finally in Europe, JARMO SANDELIN is yet another Swede worth a punt. Jarmo has been in better form recently than for years. After finishing the weekend strongly, this six-time European Tour winner looks a very likely contender here.
I'm probably unique in being primarily interested in events in Sweden this week as Tiger Woods makes a swift return from another facile Major win at the Buick Championship. I must confess to being a bit depressed after Tiger's Open stroll - not due to any dislike of the great man, rather its effect on golf betting. I have to be very confident about his motivation before backing him to win at less than 3/1, while at the same time worrying that he will end each event as a contest by Sunday. At least in compensation there's always some fun to be had trading his price in-running. Woods certainly has a superb course record. In seven outings at Warwick Hills, Tiger has won once, been runner-up twice and has a worst finish of 11th. Clearly he's going to be in contention so should his price drift after a slow start, I'll probably back him then. But for now I can't take short-odds on someone who has still not proved to have overcome driving troubles.
Spicing things up further, we have the spectacle of VIJAY SINGH chasing a third consecutive Buick win and a fourth career win at Warwick Hills. This ultra-proud workaholic will be desperate to set the record straight after Hoylake and a very rare missed cut in a Major. Prior to the Open, he'd looked quite resurgent over the previous three weeks, winning the Barclays Classic and finishing top-6 in the other two events. I suspect the Open was an aberration - he's never been a great links player anyway - and find it very hard to see Vijay out of the top-10 this week.
When you look at the course record of JIM FURYK, it is confirmed that this course favours the best players. Though the odds seem short, all the big three are highly likely to be in contention on Sunday. 2003 Buick winner Furyk has finished top-10 in six of the last seven years, and only once out of the top-20 in nine visits. Considering his game is as good as ever, testified by three consecutive top-4s including two Majors and an all-time high world ranking of 5th place, its hard to leave Furyk out of calculations despite miserly odds of 10/1.
Looking at the rest of the field, the only other players who stand out on course form are Open runner-up CHRIS DIMARCO and US Open champ Geoff Ogilvy. Regular readers will hopefully remember my long advocacy of Ogilvy as a prospect at big odds, but I just can't bring myself to back him at a best quote of 20/1. He now has the reputation of a Major winner to defend. But Dimarco is still pretty reasonable at 28/1. The only negative for me is that his Open heroics came out of the blue after an awful run of form. After a magnificent match-winning effort at last year's Presidents Cup and an early 2006 win in Abu Dhabi I really expected Dimarco to do big things this year. I don't see why Hoylake shouldn't be the turning point, as Chris seeks to cement a good run of form prior to the Ryder Cup where he will be a pivotal player.
As I said the rest of the field make little appeal, with two exceptions. I'm giving yet another chance to ZACH JOHNSON to build on a growing reputation. Zach is another one I expect to play a key Ryder Cup role, is well overdue a second Tour win and finished 2nd on his course debut last year. An even better value alternative is CAMILIO VILLEGAS at 150/1. This outstanding prospect has gone off the boil slightly after an outstanding first half of the season. Nevertheless he seems to prosper on the best courses and is likely to be threatening leaderboards again before very long.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
SCANDINAVIAN MASTERS
4pts ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 14/1 (BETFRED, BLUESQ, PADDY POWER, HILLS)
4pts win HENRIK STENSON @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew SOREN HANSEN @ 28/1 (BET365, EXPEKT, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew PETER HANSON @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JARMO SANDELIN @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
BUICK OPEN
4pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 11/1 (BETFRED, SKYBET, STAN JAMES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
4pts win JIM FURYK @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 28/1 (BET365, BET DIRECT, TOTE, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 150/1 (STAN JAMES)
2006 STATS: (-72.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:15 PM
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