BMW and Deutsche Bank golf betting previews
And so it continues. Tiger Woods may have won his fourth event in a row at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at the weekend, but at least some weekend blips kept the event interesting as a spectacle and punting medium. This week he attempts No.5 and faces a field at the Deutsche Bank Championship significantly weaker than those he's beaten in the last fortnight. One might think 13/8 is a very reasonable proposition under the circumstances, but Firestone showed again that you usually get bigger in-running - though his odds only reached 7/2. This event starts a day later than usual on Friday, so lets first deal with the BMW International Open which starts in Europe on Thursday.
The BMW could be a pivotal event in the outcome of this year's Order of Merit. Paul Casey did his chances no harm at all with a lucrative high finish at Firestone, but David Howell still leads the way by just under 300,000 Euros. That's not as big a margin as it first appears, with several big-money events to come. In fact as well as Howell, Casey and Robert Karlsson, PADRAIG HARRINGTON, Henrik Stenson, Ernie Els and Colin Montgomerie could still come into this with a late-season flourish. Howell defends the title in Munich this week and would have a fine chance if back to his best, but his form has completely disappeared in recent weeks. I think he'll probably still need to earn at least another 400,000 euros, not easy when your best finish in seven starts is 35th place.
Casey must be full of confidence after a good weekend exchanging blows with the best, and has an outstanding chance of scoring in Germany. This wide-open course suits his massive hitting perfectly, as four consecutive top-7 finishes from 2001 - 2004 prove beyond doubt. Ignore last year's missed cut as his game was in crisis at the time. If we leave aside the lingering doubts over his ability to finish tournaments off, its very hard to see Paul out of the places here.
Harrington has endured a frustrating season, but again has the perfect conditions to make his mark now. Since a purple patch in the early summer when finishing in the top-6 four out of five weeks on both sides of the Atlantic,including the US Open, there's no doubt he has been disappointing. Pod is another who I think is seen to his best when there are few penalties off the tee. He has twice finished runner-up in this event, and has six top-20s from seven visits. Two solid rounds at the weekend at Firestone might be suitable preparation for a return to form back on the European Tour. Certainly his attractive odds justify a bet.
Provided he has no ill-effects from a virus that caused him to miss the final day at Firestone, I'm expecting another very big run from LEE WESTWOOD as he stakes his claim for a Ryder Cup place. A former winner at this Munich venue, Westwood has looked in very good nick recently - 4th at the K Club was followed by 2nd at the Deutsche Bank, and he even went well for a long way in the USPGA at Medinah. Surely the time has come for this serial winner to end a barren three year stretch.
There must also be a chance that many of the big guns will be winding down after a big fortnight in the States, leaving the way open for somebody like RAPHAEL JACQUELIN who has the advantage of coming into this fresh. There's nothing wrong with the Frenchman's recent figures of two top-10s from his last three starts, and he has shown plenty of liking for the course, finishing 3rd, 22nd and 9th on his last three visits. The only lingering question is Jacquelin's suspect temperament under pressure, but hopefully that long-awaited first win in 2005 will have calmed his nerves a bit.
Onto the Deutsche Bank Championship then, and Woods' bid for a five-timer. In 2003 and 2004, the first two runnings of the event, all evidence pointed to a big advantage to the big-hitters. The first two winners were ADAM SCOTT and Vijay Singh, and Scott finished runner-up on the second occasion. Tiger Woods, in nowhere near the imperious form of the past month, finished top-10 on both occasions. But last year a spanner was thrown in the works, with medium-hitting Olin Browne landing a huge-priced touch on behalf of the grateful bookies and Tiger out with the washing in 40th place. In his current mood, its hard to see any repeat of that and Singh and Scott once again provide the principal opposition. It will take a long time for me to completely write off Vijay as past his best, but there can be no doubting a serious decline in standards recently. Having missed out on the previous four though, I'm hardly likely to advise Woods now at these odds, and once again suggest betting in the "Without Woods" market whilst trading his price in-running.
Scott has looked an imminent winner lately and is strongly fancied to make the frame at least. Perhaps the best way to back him is in a widely available match bet against Singh, but I also think 13/2 is quite reasonable to beat everyone bar Woods. Following on from a fast finishing 3rd at the PGA, Scott went well for most of the week at Firestone - a course he's always struggled on. Back on one of his favourite tracks, I expect he'll take a lot of beating.
As I've said several times recently, CAMILIO VILLEGAS is very much one to keep an eye on, and this week's tough test could well bring the best out in him. Don't worry about building up losses on this guy, as he will reap rewards for us in the long-term. I see him as a challenger for Majors in just two years from now, and in the meantime expect him to rack up lots of high finishes on the suitable US courses. Having finished second here last year, we know JASON BOHN likes the track. And prior to his last two missed cuts, one on a respectable score the other in the USPGA, he was putting together a very consistent set of figures. At 50/1 he looks worth a small interest here without the favourite.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
BMW INTERNATIONAL
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 33/1 (HILLS, CORAL)
1pt ew RAPHAEL JACQUELIN @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP
BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS
5pts win ADAM SCOTT @ 13/2 (STAN JAMES, BET365, PADDY POWER)
1.5pts ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 50/1 (STAN JAMES, BET365, 66/1 WITH EXPEKT)
1pt ew JASON BOHN @ 50/1 (STAN JAMES, BET365)
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
2006 STATS: (-111.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
The BMW could be a pivotal event in the outcome of this year's Order of Merit. Paul Casey did his chances no harm at all with a lucrative high finish at Firestone, but David Howell still leads the way by just under 300,000 Euros. That's not as big a margin as it first appears, with several big-money events to come. In fact as well as Howell, Casey and Robert Karlsson, PADRAIG HARRINGTON, Henrik Stenson, Ernie Els and Colin Montgomerie could still come into this with a late-season flourish. Howell defends the title in Munich this week and would have a fine chance if back to his best, but his form has completely disappeared in recent weeks. I think he'll probably still need to earn at least another 400,000 euros, not easy when your best finish in seven starts is 35th place.
Casey must be full of confidence after a good weekend exchanging blows with the best, and has an outstanding chance of scoring in Germany. This wide-open course suits his massive hitting perfectly, as four consecutive top-7 finishes from 2001 - 2004 prove beyond doubt. Ignore last year's missed cut as his game was in crisis at the time. If we leave aside the lingering doubts over his ability to finish tournaments off, its very hard to see Paul out of the places here.
Harrington has endured a frustrating season, but again has the perfect conditions to make his mark now. Since a purple patch in the early summer when finishing in the top-6 four out of five weeks on both sides of the Atlantic,including the US Open, there's no doubt he has been disappointing. Pod is another who I think is seen to his best when there are few penalties off the tee. He has twice finished runner-up in this event, and has six top-20s from seven visits. Two solid rounds at the weekend at Firestone might be suitable preparation for a return to form back on the European Tour. Certainly his attractive odds justify a bet.
Provided he has no ill-effects from a virus that caused him to miss the final day at Firestone, I'm expecting another very big run from LEE WESTWOOD as he stakes his claim for a Ryder Cup place. A former winner at this Munich venue, Westwood has looked in very good nick recently - 4th at the K Club was followed by 2nd at the Deutsche Bank, and he even went well for a long way in the USPGA at Medinah. Surely the time has come for this serial winner to end a barren three year stretch.
There must also be a chance that many of the big guns will be winding down after a big fortnight in the States, leaving the way open for somebody like RAPHAEL JACQUELIN who has the advantage of coming into this fresh. There's nothing wrong with the Frenchman's recent figures of two top-10s from his last three starts, and he has shown plenty of liking for the course, finishing 3rd, 22nd and 9th on his last three visits. The only lingering question is Jacquelin's suspect temperament under pressure, but hopefully that long-awaited first win in 2005 will have calmed his nerves a bit.
Onto the Deutsche Bank Championship then, and Woods' bid for a five-timer. In 2003 and 2004, the first two runnings of the event, all evidence pointed to a big advantage to the big-hitters. The first two winners were ADAM SCOTT and Vijay Singh, and Scott finished runner-up on the second occasion. Tiger Woods, in nowhere near the imperious form of the past month, finished top-10 on both occasions. But last year a spanner was thrown in the works, with medium-hitting Olin Browne landing a huge-priced touch on behalf of the grateful bookies and Tiger out with the washing in 40th place. In his current mood, its hard to see any repeat of that and Singh and Scott once again provide the principal opposition. It will take a long time for me to completely write off Vijay as past his best, but there can be no doubting a serious decline in standards recently. Having missed out on the previous four though, I'm hardly likely to advise Woods now at these odds, and once again suggest betting in the "Without Woods" market whilst trading his price in-running.
Scott has looked an imminent winner lately and is strongly fancied to make the frame at least. Perhaps the best way to back him is in a widely available match bet against Singh, but I also think 13/2 is quite reasonable to beat everyone bar Woods. Following on from a fast finishing 3rd at the PGA, Scott went well for most of the week at Firestone - a course he's always struggled on. Back on one of his favourite tracks, I expect he'll take a lot of beating.
As I've said several times recently, CAMILIO VILLEGAS is very much one to keep an eye on, and this week's tough test could well bring the best out in him. Don't worry about building up losses on this guy, as he will reap rewards for us in the long-term. I see him as a challenger for Majors in just two years from now, and in the meantime expect him to rack up lots of high finishes on the suitable US courses. Having finished second here last year, we know JASON BOHN likes the track. And prior to his last two missed cuts, one on a respectable score the other in the USPGA, he was putting together a very consistent set of figures. At 50/1 he looks worth a small interest here without the favourite.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
BMW INTERNATIONAL
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 33/1 (HILLS, CORAL)
1pt ew RAPHAEL JACQUELIN @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP
BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS
5pts win ADAM SCOTT @ 13/2 (STAN JAMES, BET365, PADDY POWER)
1.5pts ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 50/1 (STAN JAMES, BET365, 66/1 WITH EXPEKT)
1pt ew JASON BOHN @ 50/1 (STAN JAMES, BET365)
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
2006 STATS: (-111.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 2:46 PM
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