Betting previews for KLM Dutch Open and The International
On the back of a really bad run of golf results, I couldn't be less enthusiastic about the week's events. In Europe, we have the Dutch Open played on a course that hasn't been used since 1990, while the US tournament is that annual punting minefield known as The International. The latter has attracted a world-class field, and rather than the usual strokeplay format is played under a stableford scoring system which can produce dramatic swings on the leaderboard, and has been known to produce completely unfathomable winners.
Aside Tiger Woods giving the false impression that golf betting is easy and dull, the last few weeks have produced two such unfathomable winners in Corey Pavin and Mark Warren. The Dutch Open has all the hallmarks of another shock result, if the favourite gets beaten. The course is short, and apparently not too dissimilar to the linksy course this event is usually played on at Hilversum. COLIN MONTGOMERIE is by far and away the class act in this field and 9/1 is seriously tempting. He's only got to stay broadly in the thick of it for those odds to shorten. Prior to missing the cut at the Open, he'd had seven solid weeks of form including that near-miss at Winged Foot. This grade is well below the level he usually competes on, and we've seen in the Far East in recent years that Monty still enjoys beating lesser players for less prestigious events. He also wouldn't be here, just a week before the USPGA, if he wasn't serious about winning.
Next best in the betting are Ryder Cup hopefuls Paul McGinley and Paul Broadhurst, but that sort of added pressure rarely produces tournament winners in my experience, and these two are hardly prolific anyway. So I'm skipping quite a few runners to go for a couple of big priced each-way bets. As we have no course form to go on, the key attributes here are fair recent form and a solid greens in regulation record. The two that I like are MARKUS BRIER and TOM WHITEHOUSE. Brier, a runaway winner in his native Austria earlier this season, has a very solid long game and is always a serious threat at the lower European level. As for Whitehouse, last weekend's 7th place was his third top-10 of a promising season.
To add to all the question marks at the International, punting is always harder the week before a Major with doubts surrounding the motivation of the big players. With Woods absent, there's every reason to think PHIL MICKELSON will want to make hay. He is better suited than anyone to this attacking format, holds the tournament scoring record and did run away with the Bellsouth Classic the week before his 2nd Masters title. No doubt he will be using this event to practice shots made for Medinah, but he's good enough to get away with that and so rates a saver at least.
I find it easier to justify backing Phil at shortish odds here because I really want to take on the course specialists, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen. An on-song Ernie would be favourite in an event he loves, but despite his Open third I'm still not convinced. Els managed to stay in contention during the last Major because he is one of the greatest scramblers ever, but I still thought his game looked out of sorts over that weekend. As for Goosen, the last couple of efforts have been an improvement but the putter still remains very cold. And surely in this birdie-fest, the putter is going to be very important. For the same reason, obviously Sergio Garcia must be overlooked.
With the format favouring attacking players and 5 points for every eagle, it stands to reason that the longer and more attacking players will prosper. One guy who fits that bill perfectly is PAUL CASEY. More importantly, Casey has form under this format. Not only did he finish 10th on his last event here, but this rising English star also won the ANZ Championship a few years back when that event was played under stableford scoring. Also ace putter LUCAS GLOVER should like this format, and after a return to form at the weekend, could be set for a strong run to finish a very promising season.
CAMILIO VILLEGAS gave us a decent run for our money at 150/1 last week, and though the odds are significantly shorter at 66/1 now, I'm sticking with the Colombian. This superb prospect has the length, the iron play and attacking game to prosper under these conditions. It won't be long before he's challenging for Majors, but for now I prefer his chances in events where birdies and eagles are rewarded most.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
KLM DUTCH OPEN
6pts win COLIN MONTGOMERIE @ 9/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MARKUS BRIER @ 66/1 (BET365, TOTE, HILLS)
1pt ew TOM WHITEHOUSE @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
THE INTERNATIONAL
4pts PHIL MICKELSON @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PAUL CASEY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LUCAS GLOVER @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 66/1 (BET365, BET DIRECT, TOTE, BETFRED)
2006 STATS: (-108.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
Aside Tiger Woods giving the false impression that golf betting is easy and dull, the last few weeks have produced two such unfathomable winners in Corey Pavin and Mark Warren. The Dutch Open has all the hallmarks of another shock result, if the favourite gets beaten. The course is short, and apparently not too dissimilar to the linksy course this event is usually played on at Hilversum. COLIN MONTGOMERIE is by far and away the class act in this field and 9/1 is seriously tempting. He's only got to stay broadly in the thick of it for those odds to shorten. Prior to missing the cut at the Open, he'd had seven solid weeks of form including that near-miss at Winged Foot. This grade is well below the level he usually competes on, and we've seen in the Far East in recent years that Monty still enjoys beating lesser players for less prestigious events. He also wouldn't be here, just a week before the USPGA, if he wasn't serious about winning.
Next best in the betting are Ryder Cup hopefuls Paul McGinley and Paul Broadhurst, but that sort of added pressure rarely produces tournament winners in my experience, and these two are hardly prolific anyway. So I'm skipping quite a few runners to go for a couple of big priced each-way bets. As we have no course form to go on, the key attributes here are fair recent form and a solid greens in regulation record. The two that I like are MARKUS BRIER and TOM WHITEHOUSE. Brier, a runaway winner in his native Austria earlier this season, has a very solid long game and is always a serious threat at the lower European level. As for Whitehouse, last weekend's 7th place was his third top-10 of a promising season.
To add to all the question marks at the International, punting is always harder the week before a Major with doubts surrounding the motivation of the big players. With Woods absent, there's every reason to think PHIL MICKELSON will want to make hay. He is better suited than anyone to this attacking format, holds the tournament scoring record and did run away with the Bellsouth Classic the week before his 2nd Masters title. No doubt he will be using this event to practice shots made for Medinah, but he's good enough to get away with that and so rates a saver at least.
I find it easier to justify backing Phil at shortish odds here because I really want to take on the course specialists, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen. An on-song Ernie would be favourite in an event he loves, but despite his Open third I'm still not convinced. Els managed to stay in contention during the last Major because he is one of the greatest scramblers ever, but I still thought his game looked out of sorts over that weekend. As for Goosen, the last couple of efforts have been an improvement but the putter still remains very cold. And surely in this birdie-fest, the putter is going to be very important. For the same reason, obviously Sergio Garcia must be overlooked.
With the format favouring attacking players and 5 points for every eagle, it stands to reason that the longer and more attacking players will prosper. One guy who fits that bill perfectly is PAUL CASEY. More importantly, Casey has form under this format. Not only did he finish 10th on his last event here, but this rising English star also won the ANZ Championship a few years back when that event was played under stableford scoring. Also ace putter LUCAS GLOVER should like this format, and after a return to form at the weekend, could be set for a strong run to finish a very promising season.
CAMILIO VILLEGAS gave us a decent run for our money at 150/1 last week, and though the odds are significantly shorter at 66/1 now, I'm sticking with the Colombian. This superb prospect has the length, the iron play and attacking game to prosper under these conditions. It won't be long before he's challenging for Majors, but for now I prefer his chances in events where birdies and eagles are rewarded most.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
KLM DUTCH OPEN
6pts win COLIN MONTGOMERIE @ 9/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MARKUS BRIER @ 66/1 (BET365, TOTE, HILLS)
1pt ew TOM WHITEHOUSE @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
THE INTERNATIONAL
4pts PHIL MICKELSON @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PAUL CASEY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LUCAS GLOVER @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 66/1 (BET365, BET DIRECT, TOTE, BETFRED)
2006 STATS: (-108.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 9:34 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home