Northern Ireland Open Snooker Preview
Halleluhah! After the depressing summer months, the snooker season is once again upon us with the Northern Ireland Classic starting tomorrow. Another pleasant surprise in the fact that this is now a ranking event with a full-sized field. Last year's event, won by Matthew Stevens, was a limited field invitational event characterised by the blatant lack of preparation and form by the top stars. I suspect the big names may once again be underprepared which could yield massive betting value.
Of course we're guessing about form at this early stage, but as in every event last year we've got a rather lop-sided draw to capitalise upon. Snooker is so wide open nowadays that the rankings increasingly mean very little. For instance, the second quarter contains three serious World Championship contenders in Ronnie O'Sullivan, Mark Williams and Matthew Stevens along with rising stars Ryan Day, Mark Allen and Barry Hawkins. I could envisage backing any of them at some stage in the year.
In contrast the top quarter looks very weak. Graeme Dott may be world champion but he remains a very rare winner and no more than a solid top-16 player. It will be interesting to see how the gutsy Scot copes with the added pressure and expectation this year. The man he beat at Sheffield, Peter Ebdon, is also in this part of the draw but rarely has started the season strongly. Like so many top-stars, he tends to only peak from December onwards as the bigger prizes await. Sheffield semi-finalist Marco Fu would be interesting if he could repeat that week's heroics, but again has rarely shown it in these type of events. The one who really stands out for me in this section is MARK SELBY who could just be ahead of the bookies. Selby is a classic example of the bias in the rankings towards the top-32. He's been a serious prospect for years, and even reached a ranking final back in 2003. But because he struggled in qualifiers, he's only just broken into the top-32 which gives him a real chance of stamping his mark on a tournament. He made it due to a fantastic win at Sheffield over last year's leading player, John Higgins. Selby was superb in that game, and lost nothing in his subsequent defeat to an in-form Williams. There are no such threats from this draw, and he has a straightforward opener against Tony Drago to build form and confidence. In the same section, whoever wins the first-round match between Joe Swail and Gerard Greene will be worth a serious look on home territory. But as that match is far from straightforward to predict, best to wait until we know who progresses.
As I said, the second quarter is a minefield, and the best strategy is to sit back and watch carnage ensue knowing only one player can reach the semis. It is worth adding though, that you'd have to be enjoying Class A drugs to consider a bet on Ronnie O'Sullivan. His will to win is always dubious, but I'll be surprised if he's bothered with a low-grade event like this. The third quarter looks between Higgins, Ding Junhui and Ken Doherty if the formbook is to be believed, but until we've seen them play I'm reserving judgement.
So the other value bet is in the final quarter. The player I have the highest hopes for this season is Aussie prodigy NEIL ROBERTSON. Since the slow demise of Stephen Hendry began, snooker has lacked a consistent, dominating player. However the standard is certainly average enough for someone to emerge and for me the most likely candidates are Robbo and Ding Junhui. I've already backed Robertson for next year's World Championship at 40/1, and 25/1 looks a nice price here bearing in mind a likely easy first round win. The ante-post bet is outstanding value in my view and very strongly recommended.
Should he make it that far, Robertson's last eight opponent will probably be one of Stephen Hendry, Stephen Lee, STUART BINGHAM or Ian McCulloch. The first two of those are well worth opposing in an event like this, and Bingham should beat David Roe easily enough in the first round. Last year, the Essex player started the year on fire and this player of considerable potential is worth a bet to do so again.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
3pts ew MARK SELBY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 25/1 (STAN JAMES)
1.5pts ew STUART BINGHAM @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
ANTE-POST
10pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 40/1 (LADBROKES)
Of course we're guessing about form at this early stage, but as in every event last year we've got a rather lop-sided draw to capitalise upon. Snooker is so wide open nowadays that the rankings increasingly mean very little. For instance, the second quarter contains three serious World Championship contenders in Ronnie O'Sullivan, Mark Williams and Matthew Stevens along with rising stars Ryan Day, Mark Allen and Barry Hawkins. I could envisage backing any of them at some stage in the year.
In contrast the top quarter looks very weak. Graeme Dott may be world champion but he remains a very rare winner and no more than a solid top-16 player. It will be interesting to see how the gutsy Scot copes with the added pressure and expectation this year. The man he beat at Sheffield, Peter Ebdon, is also in this part of the draw but rarely has started the season strongly. Like so many top-stars, he tends to only peak from December onwards as the bigger prizes await. Sheffield semi-finalist Marco Fu would be interesting if he could repeat that week's heroics, but again has rarely shown it in these type of events. The one who really stands out for me in this section is MARK SELBY who could just be ahead of the bookies. Selby is a classic example of the bias in the rankings towards the top-32. He's been a serious prospect for years, and even reached a ranking final back in 2003. But because he struggled in qualifiers, he's only just broken into the top-32 which gives him a real chance of stamping his mark on a tournament. He made it due to a fantastic win at Sheffield over last year's leading player, John Higgins. Selby was superb in that game, and lost nothing in his subsequent defeat to an in-form Williams. There are no such threats from this draw, and he has a straightforward opener against Tony Drago to build form and confidence. In the same section, whoever wins the first-round match between Joe Swail and Gerard Greene will be worth a serious look on home territory. But as that match is far from straightforward to predict, best to wait until we know who progresses.
As I said, the second quarter is a minefield, and the best strategy is to sit back and watch carnage ensue knowing only one player can reach the semis. It is worth adding though, that you'd have to be enjoying Class A drugs to consider a bet on Ronnie O'Sullivan. His will to win is always dubious, but I'll be surprised if he's bothered with a low-grade event like this. The third quarter looks between Higgins, Ding Junhui and Ken Doherty if the formbook is to be believed, but until we've seen them play I'm reserving judgement.
So the other value bet is in the final quarter. The player I have the highest hopes for this season is Aussie prodigy NEIL ROBERTSON. Since the slow demise of Stephen Hendry began, snooker has lacked a consistent, dominating player. However the standard is certainly average enough for someone to emerge and for me the most likely candidates are Robbo and Ding Junhui. I've already backed Robertson for next year's World Championship at 40/1, and 25/1 looks a nice price here bearing in mind a likely easy first round win. The ante-post bet is outstanding value in my view and very strongly recommended.
Should he make it that far, Robertson's last eight opponent will probably be one of Stephen Hendry, Stephen Lee, STUART BINGHAM or Ian McCulloch. The first two of those are well worth opposing in an event like this, and Bingham should beat David Roe easily enough in the first round. Last year, the Essex player started the year on fire and this player of considerable potential is worth a bet to do so again.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
3pts ew MARK SELBY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 25/1 (STAN JAMES)
1.5pts ew STUART BINGHAM @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
ANTE-POST
10pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 40/1 (LADBROKES)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 2:41 PM
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