USPGA Championship Betting Preview
The final Major of the year, the USPGA Championship, starts on Thursday from Medinah CC, Illinois. Always the least fashionable of the Majors, this one has tended to yield more shock winners than the other two - Jeff Sluman, John Daly, Rich Beem and Shaun Micheel spring to mind. This year in my view it represents the best chance yet for a trio of world-class golfers still aiming for their first Major.
Not so long ago, it was widely understood that there was a 'Big 5', that represented an elite band operating in a slightly higher stratosphere. Not any more. Since April 2005 when this sentiment was most regularly used, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have won five of the seven Majors contested to very much set up their own private dual. Moreover, the other three members of the five, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen have all struggled with form and fitness and Jim Furyk, now ranked No.4, probably represents the greatest immediate threat to the front two.
First a word about Tiger and Mickelson. When the PGA was last held here in 1999, Woods landed his second Major while Mickelson never got going. Mickelson hasn't really shown for a few months that he's quite in the form when winning this event last year, and is readily opposed but Tiger's chances are the subject of much debate. The great man is undoubtably in form, as facile victories in the Open Championship and at Warwick Hills on his last two outings testify. Having won fairly easily in 1999 on this course - Sergio Garcia's memorable late challenge withstanding - one might assume he is a shoe-in here again. But equally, for both of those recent wins Woods was able to avoid taking driver - his problem club - for most of the week. Medinah has been lengthened to new extremes so he has no such option here. And in the intervening 7 years, technology has come along that has narrowed the advantage he has on such courses. The truth is I'm at a loss as far as predicting Tiger this week, he could yet again destroy the event as a gambling spectacle as at Hoylake but still looks atrocious value at 9/4. The best strategy is to try and bet in markets that don't include him.
Furyk is the danger, as he is enjoying his best season to date. Top-10 here in 1999, Jim has finished no worse than 4th in his last four outings, including two Majors. Only Tiger bettered him at Warwick Hills last time, but I'm not greatly enamoured by the outright price. While first impressions of the length of the course suggest short-hitters like Furyk may be disadvantaged a detailed look at the 1999 result suggests otherwise. Though the front pair, Woods and Garcia, are among the longest hitters, extremely short-hitter Mike Weir led going into final round while Furyk, Jay Haas and Nick Price also made the top-10 so it seems greens in regulation - the pivotal stat for Majors - is the one to look at.
So my three for the USPGA are ADAM SCOTT, LUKE DONALD and TIM CLARK. All three definitely possess the ability to win a Major, but only Clark has a good record in recent ones. Scott in particular has underperformed in Majors. My view is the reason for that is an inexperienced short game that, at Augusta or on an Open course, is cruelly exposed. Similar comments apply to Donald, but Medinah should be more conventional than most. Scott's efforts when 8th at Hoylake suggests he's getting the hang of Majors, and I'm pleased to see he is coming in fresh and presumably well prepared. It seems the best attribute to own is the ability to consistently drive it long and straight. There are few better than Scott in this regard.
Like Furyk, the relatively short-hitting Donald could be disadvantaged here, but the evidence suggests otherwise. His world-class long-iron play more than compensates for a lack of length from the tee and as he monotonously hits fairways, bogey can be taken out of the equation on most holes on this tough course. In any case, some of Donald's best efforts have come on similarly long courses. As a PGA Tour rookie, arguably his best effort was top-15 at the monster Bethpage Black in the US Open back in 2002.
In terms of length, Clark is the middle of my three selections. The South African has shown several times in recent Majors just how suited he is to tough golf courses. Runner-up in this year's Masters, 3rd in the 2005 US Open and 3rd in the 2004 PGA, Clark looks a likely contender in all the US Majors these days. His ultra-accurate game looks perfect for Medinah.
The question is which market to play? 33/1, 40/1 and 80/1 respectively are available for my three selections, but I'd rather take Tiger Woods out of the equation. Paddy Power's 'without-Tiger' market offers 25/1 twice and 66/1 for the same players so I suggest thats the best route. If you're more inclined to take the outright market, there are some good offers around. Paddy Power offer a refund of losing win stakes should a European win, Tote do the same if Mickelson wins and Sean Graham offer a free £25 Ryder Cup bet if you stake £25 on the USPGA.
Others expected to go well this week are GEOFF OGILVY, MIKE WEIR and AARON OBERHOLSER. Ogilvy also has the perfect game for this set-up. If it wasn't for the fact he's already won a Major this year I'd be backing him for sure. However, the odds are now far closer to the correct mark and lets face it, unless you're name is Tiger you don't win two Majors in the same season. Weir emerged in the big-time when the event was last played at Medinah. As a rank outsider, he led going into the final day only to collapse with 80. He's not looked far off his Masters-winning best this year, so is also worth keeping an eye on, especially in the speciality markets. As for Oberholser, a reduced schedule this year has reaped dividends. He's been on the fringes in both previous US Majors and Sawgrass since winning at Pebble Beach so it stands to reason he'll go well again. In particular, he looks good value at 50/1 in the top-US without Tiger market.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS
3pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 25/1 (PADDY POWER)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 25/1 (PADDY POWER)
1.5pts ew TIM CLARK @ 66/1(PADDY POWER)
TOP US WITHOUT TIGER WOODS
1pt ew AARON OBERHOLSER (PADDY POWER)
MATCH BETS, 3-BALLS AND SPREADS
SUPPORT JIM FURYK
SUPPORT GEOFF OGILVY
SUPPORT MIKE WEIR
SUPPORT AARON OBERHOLSER
OPPOSE PHIL MICKELSON
2006 STATS: (-128.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
Not so long ago, it was widely understood that there was a 'Big 5', that represented an elite band operating in a slightly higher stratosphere. Not any more. Since April 2005 when this sentiment was most regularly used, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have won five of the seven Majors contested to very much set up their own private dual. Moreover, the other three members of the five, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen have all struggled with form and fitness and Jim Furyk, now ranked No.4, probably represents the greatest immediate threat to the front two.
First a word about Tiger and Mickelson. When the PGA was last held here in 1999, Woods landed his second Major while Mickelson never got going. Mickelson hasn't really shown for a few months that he's quite in the form when winning this event last year, and is readily opposed but Tiger's chances are the subject of much debate. The great man is undoubtably in form, as facile victories in the Open Championship and at Warwick Hills on his last two outings testify. Having won fairly easily in 1999 on this course - Sergio Garcia's memorable late challenge withstanding - one might assume he is a shoe-in here again. But equally, for both of those recent wins Woods was able to avoid taking driver - his problem club - for most of the week. Medinah has been lengthened to new extremes so he has no such option here. And in the intervening 7 years, technology has come along that has narrowed the advantage he has on such courses. The truth is I'm at a loss as far as predicting Tiger this week, he could yet again destroy the event as a gambling spectacle as at Hoylake but still looks atrocious value at 9/4. The best strategy is to try and bet in markets that don't include him.
Furyk is the danger, as he is enjoying his best season to date. Top-10 here in 1999, Jim has finished no worse than 4th in his last four outings, including two Majors. Only Tiger bettered him at Warwick Hills last time, but I'm not greatly enamoured by the outright price. While first impressions of the length of the course suggest short-hitters like Furyk may be disadvantaged a detailed look at the 1999 result suggests otherwise. Though the front pair, Woods and Garcia, are among the longest hitters, extremely short-hitter Mike Weir led going into final round while Furyk, Jay Haas and Nick Price also made the top-10 so it seems greens in regulation - the pivotal stat for Majors - is the one to look at.
So my three for the USPGA are ADAM SCOTT, LUKE DONALD and TIM CLARK. All three definitely possess the ability to win a Major, but only Clark has a good record in recent ones. Scott in particular has underperformed in Majors. My view is the reason for that is an inexperienced short game that, at Augusta or on an Open course, is cruelly exposed. Similar comments apply to Donald, but Medinah should be more conventional than most. Scott's efforts when 8th at Hoylake suggests he's getting the hang of Majors, and I'm pleased to see he is coming in fresh and presumably well prepared. It seems the best attribute to own is the ability to consistently drive it long and straight. There are few better than Scott in this regard.
Like Furyk, the relatively short-hitting Donald could be disadvantaged here, but the evidence suggests otherwise. His world-class long-iron play more than compensates for a lack of length from the tee and as he monotonously hits fairways, bogey can be taken out of the equation on most holes on this tough course. In any case, some of Donald's best efforts have come on similarly long courses. As a PGA Tour rookie, arguably his best effort was top-15 at the monster Bethpage Black in the US Open back in 2002.
In terms of length, Clark is the middle of my three selections. The South African has shown several times in recent Majors just how suited he is to tough golf courses. Runner-up in this year's Masters, 3rd in the 2005 US Open and 3rd in the 2004 PGA, Clark looks a likely contender in all the US Majors these days. His ultra-accurate game looks perfect for Medinah.
The question is which market to play? 33/1, 40/1 and 80/1 respectively are available for my three selections, but I'd rather take Tiger Woods out of the equation. Paddy Power's 'without-Tiger' market offers 25/1 twice and 66/1 for the same players so I suggest thats the best route. If you're more inclined to take the outright market, there are some good offers around. Paddy Power offer a refund of losing win stakes should a European win, Tote do the same if Mickelson wins and Sean Graham offer a free £25 Ryder Cup bet if you stake £25 on the USPGA.
Others expected to go well this week are GEOFF OGILVY, MIKE WEIR and AARON OBERHOLSER. Ogilvy also has the perfect game for this set-up. If it wasn't for the fact he's already won a Major this year I'd be backing him for sure. However, the odds are now far closer to the correct mark and lets face it, unless you're name is Tiger you don't win two Majors in the same season. Weir emerged in the big-time when the event was last played at Medinah. As a rank outsider, he led going into the final day only to collapse with 80. He's not looked far off his Masters-winning best this year, so is also worth keeping an eye on, especially in the speciality markets. As for Oberholser, a reduced schedule this year has reaped dividends. He's been on the fringes in both previous US Majors and Sawgrass since winning at Pebble Beach so it stands to reason he'll go well again. In particular, he looks good value at 50/1 in the top-US without Tiger market.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS
3pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 25/1 (PADDY POWER)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 25/1 (PADDY POWER)
1.5pts ew TIM CLARK @ 66/1(PADDY POWER)
TOP US WITHOUT TIGER WOODS
1pt ew AARON OBERHOLSER (PADDY POWER)
MATCH BETS, 3-BALLS AND SPREADS
SUPPORT JIM FURYK
SUPPORT GEOFF OGILVY
SUPPORT MIKE WEIR
SUPPORT AARON OBERHOLSER
OPPOSE PHIL MICKELSON
2006 STATS: (-128.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 8:03 AM
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