WGC Bridgestone Invitational Betting Preview
Before I get to the golf advice, I must give a quick mention to the bookmakers Paddy Power, who proved once again they truly are the best in the business as far as punters are concerned with their response to Sunday's cricketing fiasco. They decided to both pay out on an England win, and void all losing bets on Pakistan and the draw - a decision notably not repeated by most of their rivals. Without going into this too much, this was in my view the only reasonable approach to a terrible situation for gamblers on all sides. I'm quite sure that, had a flood of money come for England at massive odds during the tea interval there would have been a stewards enquiry into betting patterns and many would have hid behind the dubious palpable error rule. Certainly I would have expected that from William Hill, who used that excuse only days earlier to void snooker bets from their live in-running market because they had forgotten to update them.
Following another facile Major win at Medinah, his 12th in an unbelievable 9 years as a professional, Tiger Woods bids for his fourth consecutive tournament win at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club against a limited field, but one that includes all of the world's leading players. There will no doubt be a school of thought that Woods may suffer a reaction to winning and take this week less seriously, but don't bet on it. Tiger takes these lucrative WGC events as seriously as anyone, and Firestone suits him as well as pretty much any course in the States. His course record is predictably awesome. In 8 visits, he's won 4 and never finished worse than 5th. So with a 50% strike record and perfect recent form, 13/8 doesn't seem like such a bad price. In fact I expect him to win this easily, by several shots. However rather than taking these short odds now, I'll wait and see if he drifts at all in-running. At that price, it won't take very much.
Woods looks almost back to his absolute best, as he displayed when winning four consecutive Majors in 2000/2001. As usual all the critics were out in force after Medinah, blaming the opposition for nor giving Tiger a test on the final day. However while Luke Donald will undoubtably be very disappointed with his final round efforts in his first serious chance of winning a Major, blaming the opposition does Woods no justice. The reality is that he came within one shot of his own Major scoring record, just weeks after again threatening the same record in another uncontested Major victory. The truth is that on his day, he's simply too good for anyone alive and quite possibly getting better. Improvement would come as no surprise as the overwhelming majority of golfers don't peak until their thirties.
For once I called it right at the USPGA, at least in terms of which market to play. Though Luke Donald and Adam Scott ultimately fell short of winning the "Without Tiger" market and would have yielded slightly higher place returns in the main market, the last day would have been extremely dull without having those bets to cheer on. Once again, this is where our attention should lie. This event isn't as competitive as many, with several players never taking well to Firestone. Phil Mickelson used to do particularly well here until the course was toughened up. In any case, he looked some way below his best last week. Ernie Els has only two top-10s in his last eight visits, Retief Goosen one from four. Vijay Singh is relatively suited by Firestone's demands, but comes into this on the back of second consecutive missed cut in the Majors. Even Adam Scott, who looked a winner in waiting at Medinah, can't be recommended after three no-shows on the course.
With so many players unfancied, a process of elimination implies JIM FURYK is worth including at 12/1. Medinah was a disappointment for Furyk, but he wasn't too far away for a long time before fading on Sunday. I'm happy to ignore that as his previous efforts had been right out of the top drawer. The most consistent player of 2006, now ranked No.3 in the world, has always enjoyed the test of Firestone. Among four top-10s from seven visits, the lasting memory of Furyk on this course was losing a multi-hole play-off to an in-form Tiger. Something similar would probably be required to win this week, but less so to win the market without the favourite.
Its also worth taking a chance that LUKE DONALD will be unaffected by the disappointments of Sunday night. Even when it was all going wrong, there was little sign of any weaknesses in that fantastic long game, rather it was his short game that went to pieces. No less of a judge than Bernhard Langer reckons Luke is the best iron player in the world, which is a the essential requirement for Firestone. As he has been 16th and 6th on his previous visits, I'll be surprised if he's not there or thereabouts once again.
It may be a good time to look to the next generation of stars. Whether either of them will ever reach a level that will threaten Tiger's dominance is a matter for speculation, but there can be little doubt that TREVOR IMMELMAN and HENRIK STENSON show every sign of joining the elite ranks pretty soon. In Immelman's case, the secret is already out of the bag after his impressive win in the Western Open - just the latest in a series of high class performances against the best in the States. Had last week not been his first event after a break for the birth of his first child, Immelman would have come in for very careful consideration at Medinah. As it was, four solid rounds without ever getting into contention could prove the perfect warm-up. Nobody would doubt that the South African prospect has improved considerably recently, so 9th at Firestone in 2003 when still very novicey bodes well.
Stenson looks to have found his form again after a tricky summer, and could be set for a late charge at the Order of Merit. When the Swede finished 3rd at Sawgrass, after an extremely impressive and consistent run in Europe, everyone was tipping him for glory and his odds for the Masters were crazy at less than 40/1. But last week's efforts suggest he's overcome any reaction to that. Understandably, Stenson hit a poor round on Saturday when leading the event in the final two-ball, but otherwise did very little wrong in landing his best Major finish to date. As with Immelman, the clinching point is some positive previous form on the course. Opening with a 66, Stenson looked capable of springing a shock for a long way here last year, and can reasonably be expected to go well again.
Good Luck!
BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS
STAKING PLAN
3pts ew JIM FURYK @ 12/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, TOTE)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, BETFRED)
2pts ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 33/1 (BETFRED, PADDY POWER, SKYBET, STAN JAMES)
1pt ew HENRIK STENSON @ 50/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, STAN JAMES)
2006 STATS: (-107.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
Following another facile Major win at Medinah, his 12th in an unbelievable 9 years as a professional, Tiger Woods bids for his fourth consecutive tournament win at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club against a limited field, but one that includes all of the world's leading players. There will no doubt be a school of thought that Woods may suffer a reaction to winning and take this week less seriously, but don't bet on it. Tiger takes these lucrative WGC events as seriously as anyone, and Firestone suits him as well as pretty much any course in the States. His course record is predictably awesome. In 8 visits, he's won 4 and never finished worse than 5th. So with a 50% strike record and perfect recent form, 13/8 doesn't seem like such a bad price. In fact I expect him to win this easily, by several shots. However rather than taking these short odds now, I'll wait and see if he drifts at all in-running. At that price, it won't take very much.
Woods looks almost back to his absolute best, as he displayed when winning four consecutive Majors in 2000/2001. As usual all the critics were out in force after Medinah, blaming the opposition for nor giving Tiger a test on the final day. However while Luke Donald will undoubtably be very disappointed with his final round efforts in his first serious chance of winning a Major, blaming the opposition does Woods no justice. The reality is that he came within one shot of his own Major scoring record, just weeks after again threatening the same record in another uncontested Major victory. The truth is that on his day, he's simply too good for anyone alive and quite possibly getting better. Improvement would come as no surprise as the overwhelming majority of golfers don't peak until their thirties.
For once I called it right at the USPGA, at least in terms of which market to play. Though Luke Donald and Adam Scott ultimately fell short of winning the "Without Tiger" market and would have yielded slightly higher place returns in the main market, the last day would have been extremely dull without having those bets to cheer on. Once again, this is where our attention should lie. This event isn't as competitive as many, with several players never taking well to Firestone. Phil Mickelson used to do particularly well here until the course was toughened up. In any case, he looked some way below his best last week. Ernie Els has only two top-10s in his last eight visits, Retief Goosen one from four. Vijay Singh is relatively suited by Firestone's demands, but comes into this on the back of second consecutive missed cut in the Majors. Even Adam Scott, who looked a winner in waiting at Medinah, can't be recommended after three no-shows on the course.
With so many players unfancied, a process of elimination implies JIM FURYK is worth including at 12/1. Medinah was a disappointment for Furyk, but he wasn't too far away for a long time before fading on Sunday. I'm happy to ignore that as his previous efforts had been right out of the top drawer. The most consistent player of 2006, now ranked No.3 in the world, has always enjoyed the test of Firestone. Among four top-10s from seven visits, the lasting memory of Furyk on this course was losing a multi-hole play-off to an in-form Tiger. Something similar would probably be required to win this week, but less so to win the market without the favourite.
Its also worth taking a chance that LUKE DONALD will be unaffected by the disappointments of Sunday night. Even when it was all going wrong, there was little sign of any weaknesses in that fantastic long game, rather it was his short game that went to pieces. No less of a judge than Bernhard Langer reckons Luke is the best iron player in the world, which is a the essential requirement for Firestone. As he has been 16th and 6th on his previous visits, I'll be surprised if he's not there or thereabouts once again.
It may be a good time to look to the next generation of stars. Whether either of them will ever reach a level that will threaten Tiger's dominance is a matter for speculation, but there can be little doubt that TREVOR IMMELMAN and HENRIK STENSON show every sign of joining the elite ranks pretty soon. In Immelman's case, the secret is already out of the bag after his impressive win in the Western Open - just the latest in a series of high class performances against the best in the States. Had last week not been his first event after a break for the birth of his first child, Immelman would have come in for very careful consideration at Medinah. As it was, four solid rounds without ever getting into contention could prove the perfect warm-up. Nobody would doubt that the South African prospect has improved considerably recently, so 9th at Firestone in 2003 when still very novicey bodes well.
Stenson looks to have found his form again after a tricky summer, and could be set for a late charge at the Order of Merit. When the Swede finished 3rd at Sawgrass, after an extremely impressive and consistent run in Europe, everyone was tipping him for glory and his odds for the Masters were crazy at less than 40/1. But last week's efforts suggest he's overcome any reaction to that. Understandably, Stenson hit a poor round on Saturday when leading the event in the final two-ball, but otherwise did very little wrong in landing his best Major finish to date. As with Immelman, the clinching point is some positive previous form on the course. Opening with a 66, Stenson looked capable of springing a shock for a long way here last year, and can reasonably be expected to go well again.
Good Luck!
BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS
STAKING PLAN
3pts ew JIM FURYK @ 12/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, TOTE)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, BETFRED)
2pts ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 33/1 (BETFRED, PADDY POWER, SKYBET, STAN JAMES)
1pt ew HENRIK STENSON @ 50/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, STAN JAMES)
2006 STATS: (-107.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 2:37 PM
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