Mickelson up to defending at Scottsdale

Two world-class events in Dubai and Arizona provide the setting for a great weekend of golf, with all of the big 5 now back in action. Tiger Woods, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen head a stellar field as the European Tour continues its 'Desert Swing' with its annual fixture at the Emirates Club, the Dubai Desert Classic.

A strong European challenge is led by fast emerging Henrik Stenson, who finally got a monkey of his back with a victory in Qatar. Importantly, Stenson led all the way and silenced those who doubted his temperament. I wouldn't argue with those who think Stenson is a future Major winner, but at almost half the price this week of the next European contender, I need to see a bit more to take these very cramped odds.

Woods opened his 2006 campaign with a play-off win at Torrey Pines on Sunday, and clearly is in good nick. Five win from his last nine starts suggests that even very short priced bets on Woods can pay, so I couldn't provide an argument against a bet at 11/4 on value grounds. However, I'm still looking elsewhere for pre-tournament bets as there must be every chance a bigger price will be available in-running. And its also important to remember that Torrey Pines is a course where we routinely expect Tiger to dominate, less so in Dubai.

Els has a fantastic record at the Emirates Course, and is tempting at 7/1 but hasn't competed in an event anywhere near this magnitude since last Spring and wasn't particularly impressive last week. Given his outstanding finish to 2005, Goosen's price is surprisingly big. Presumably this is based on a dubious assumption that he won't be 100% for his first outing of the year, but is overlooked as he's never produced his best golf in this part of the world.

So with it hard to particularly favour any one of the leading four more than the others, I'm leaving them all alone and going for three each-way bets instead. Firstly, I simply must perservere with DAVID HOWELL, especially as his odds are a massive over-reaction to two bad weeks. Any profits made from Howell's Hong Kong win have been given back in the meantime, but at 28/1 this could be a chance to move back into the black on a player who remains one to follow. Howell stands -25 for his last eight rounds on this course, and also has happy memories of this event which he won at a different venue 7 years ago.

Sweden's NICLAS FASTH is oozing self-confidence at the moment, convinced his game is better than ever. He did as much as anyone to try and chase down runaway winner Stenson in Qatar, and finished 2nd on his penultimate Emirates Club visit. This feisty competitor showed a couple of times in 2005 that he is well capable of winning tournaments when on song, and must rate worthy of an each-way bet even in this exalted class.

Bookmakers appeared to have over-reacted to a disappointing opening event of the year for PAUL CASEY in Dubai. At the tail-end of the year Casey looked a likely contender in every event so its a surprise to see him available now at 50/1. I expect Paul to score heavily on the par-5s this week, and will be one of the few players capable of keeping up with Woods, Els, Goosen and Stenson on those holes.

Aussie left-hander NICK O'HERN's first event of the year finished well with a couple of decent rounds over the weekend in Qatar and he should have shaken any rust out his game. If Nick reverts to the form he was showing at the end of 2005 then he will certainly rack up another series of low finishes. Unfortunately he also showed in many of those starts that he remains someone to avoid at all costs when in contention and the preferred option is match and spread bets.

The PGA Tour moves on to Scottsdale, Arizona for its long-standing desert event, scene of the loudest and rowdiest crowds. The locals will doubtless be screaming for their hero and defending champion, PHIL MICKELSON. It will not be easy with Vijay Singh, Sergio Garcia in opposition as well as bang-in-form recent winners DAVID TOMS and Chris Dimarco. Lefty hasn't been quite at his brilliant best so far in 2006, as by his own admission he has been shaking off rust from an extended winter break. Nevertheless, he was on the fringes of contention at the Bob Hope and could easily have won at Torrey Pines but for a few three putts and a poor back 9 on Sunday. Scottsdale really plays into the hands of Phil's risk-reward game and he must be the one to beat.

The overall balance of Singh's Scottsdale form is nothing out of the ordinary and he only won this when at his very best, which was not the case in either of the past two weeks. Garcia is clearly hitting the ball magnificently but remains a player to avoid. For once his putting wasn't atrocious at Torrey Pines, but then he throws in another awful final day performance when holding the lead.

Toms makes much more appeal. Time and again this guy has proved he is a winner - there are very few players I would rather back under the pressures of a final day. And at Waialae, Toms showed just how well he has started the year, slaughtering a world class field on a difficult golf course. Its interesting that he had a fortnight's break after that win, and looks likely to be primed for contention. Certainly, three top-11 finishes on his last three visits will have convinced Toms that this is one of his best winning opportunities of the year.

Chris Dimarco has a superb Scottsdale record and finally answered questions about his 'bottle' with a gutsy front-running win in Abu Dhabi a fortnight ago. Dimarco looks a different player since leading the US to victory in last autumn's President Cup and is very reluctantly overlooked, simply on the grounds that all value has gone out of his price now. Another player I expect to go well for speciality bet purposes is the consistent SCOTT VERPLANK, another one stuck with the bottler tag. Alternatively, good recent form may have forced bookies to over-estimate the chances of Chad Campbell and Jose-Maria Olazabal. Scottsdale is quite a quirky course, and neither have ever shown much liking for it so might well be worth opposing.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC

2pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 28/1 (CORALS, SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew NICLAS FASTH @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PAUL CASEY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

MATCHES, SPREADS AND 2-BALLS

SUPPORT NICK O'HERN

FBR OPEN

6pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 13/2 (BET365, BETDIRECT, STAN JAMES, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew DAVID TOMS @ 14/1 (BET DIRECT, BLUESQ, STAN JAMES)

MATCHES, SPREADS AND 2-BALLS

SUPPORT SCOTT VERPLANK
OPPOSE CHAD CAMPBELL
OPPOSE JOSE MARIA-OLAZABAL

2006 STATISTICS (After Week 4): (-1.75pts)
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts

Tiger set to dominate again at Torrey Pines

Fresh from their winter breaks, the two leading attractions in world golf lead the cast for the best golfing week so far of 2006. Tiger Woods opens up with a title defence in the States but first of all, Ernie Els will attempt to defend a title of his own at the Qatar Masters, which kicks off in the early hours of Thursday morning.

Last year Els produced a magnificent final day charge, coming from five shots off the pace to land his second Middle East win in a fortnight, but previously this course has proved very hard to make up ground on. Of even greater importance is the fact that, due to notorious afternoon winds, early starters have usually enjoyed a significant advantage over the years here. For the latter reason I'm not backing Els from the outset as he has a late R1 tee-time, but he is bound to be there or thereabouts so keep an eye on his odds in-running. Challenging Ernie for favouritism is Vijay Singh, who does enjoy an early start. Having backed Vijay for the first three weeks of 2006 without success it would be typical if the Fijian delivers now, but I can't justify odds of 6/1 with Ernie also in the field, along with several top Europeans. Another factor that could count against Vijay is the lightning fast greens.

So in our search for early-starters at double figure odds, all paths lead to a pair of Englishmen, DAVID HOWELL and IAN POULTER. I make no apologies for sticking with ace putter Howell despite his missed cut last week. After his sensational form at the tail-end of 2005, its only fair to put that blip down to rustiness. At Doha, Howell has three consecutive top-10s to his name, and his price of 18/1 looks an each-way steal. As I've said countless times in recent weeks, Howell is moving into the game's elite fast, and must be perservered with until the bookmakers accept the fact.

2005 was the first in which Poulter finished without a victory, but don't expect that to continue for long either. Closing with three sub-70 rounds at the weekend, Ian very much took the eye as a likely winner over the next few weeks. Despite a missed cut on his most recent Doha appearance, 11th on his only previous visit confirms that he likes it here.

Another player likely to go well here is PAUL MCGINLEY, who has an early start and has bulit up a bank of course form over the years. However, despite the career highlight of winning the Volvo Masters recently, I still can't find the will to back a player in the outright market who has let himself down so many times when in contention, including on this course. It makes much more sense to side with the Irishman in speciality bets. Similarly, massive hitting RICARDO GONZALEZ has four consecutive top-20s here and played really well at Abu Dhabi last week, but his odds of 50/1 are plenty short enough for somebody who's never looked top class. Again, match bets and spreads look a better option for the Argentinian.

The US PGA Tour moves on to the regular fixture at Torrey Pines, the BUICK INVITATIONAL. Played on two courses, its worth remembering that the South course is considerably harder than the North, as it is being prepared for the 2008 US Open. Three out of four rounds are played on the South course, for which the word 'beast' is not an unfair description - especially when the weather is bad. Quality, long, accurate play from tee to green is essential.

Defending champion TIGER WOODS makes his seasonal debut and will take the world of beating once again. In his last eight Torrey Pines visits, Woods has managed three wins and only once was out of the top-5. Even on that occasion in 2004, Tiger showed just how well suited he is to the course by finishing 10th despite playing what was, by his standards, atrocious golf. The only question mark is that we are taking his preparation on trust, as he hasn't played competitive golf for over a month. But Tiger being the ultra competitive animal that he is, and with stats like that on offer, 3/1 looks a very reasonable price - even though he'll probably drift to a bigger price in-running at some stage.

The dangers to Tiger are obvious, but unappealing. Phil Mickelson also loves it here, but has been put in his place by Tiger in recent runnings of this and wasn't particularly impressive at the weekend. Sergio Garcia should, with his long game, love it here but his putting goes from awful to simply embarrassing. Chad Campbell is in the form of his life, but hardly represents value at 20/1 after two consecutive weekends in contention. The one rival with very obvious claims is LUKE DONALD, on his seasonal debut. His record here over the past three years is 7th, 2nd and 2nd. This impressive set of figures, along with his sole win of 2005 coming in the final event, means that bookies are taking no chances on the young Englishman. At 20/1 best price, we're better off sticking to the speciality markets with Luke, particularly in match and spread bets against his friend Garcia. In stark contrast, Stuart Appleby has started the season brilliantly but is bound to be over-estimated in speciality markets as this is really not his type of course, as a poor course record demonstrates.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

QATAR MASTERS
3pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 18/1 WITH CORALS)
1pt ew IAN POULTER @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS

SUPPORT PAUL MCGINLEY
SUPPORT RICARDO GONZALEZ

BUICK INVITATIONAL

10pts win TIGER WOODS @ 11/4 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 3/1 WITH VICTOR CHANDLER)

MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS

SUPPORT LUKE DONALD
OPPOSE STUART APPLEBY

2006 STATISTICS (After Week 3) (-21.25pts)
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts

Time for young prospects Rose and Dougherty to deliver

As of this week, the golf season is back in full swing with two events on the two main Tours, and for a nice change we haven't got to stay awake all night to watch them.

In the States, we have the very rare instance of a 5-round event with the pro-am Bob Hope Classic. Expect the TV coverage to be atrocious for the first few days with too much focus on celebrities, but I'm sure American golden boy PHIL MICKELSON will get plenty of coverage as he bids to defend his title and land his third Bob Hope in 5 years. Whether to back Mickelson or not is always a huge conundrum. Year after year, Lefty has proved a goldmine for punters during the West Coast Swing and will surely win at least win over the next month. It also stands to reason that in a, 5 round event, the favourites have a greater chance of establishing superiority and he is very much the class act in a moderate field. Countering that argument, there are always doubts to be had about backing a player on his first event after a winter break. Interestingly though, Mickelson's last two Bob Hope wins have come on his seasonal debut so he must warrant a place in the staking plan.

At this early stage of the season, there is a tendency among bookmakers to over-react. This tournament is a completely different sort of test to either of the events in Hawaii of the past fortnight. Whereas the wind has been a huge factor so far, and accuracy to the green essential at Waialae, this pro-am is bound to be primarily a putting contest in very easy conditions.
A classic example could be hot prospect BEN CRANE. Ben's performance in the season's curtain raiser at Kapalua was a bitter disappointment to me. I can only put it down to an inability to cope with the very strong winds that week, and am willing to overlook it. In superb form in the latter half of 2005, and 5th here in 2004 when nothing like the player he is today, a superb putter like Crane looks a very obvious contender this week and well worth chancing at 40/1.

Another player whose price looks very generous is JUSTIN ROSE, who may have been written off by some odds compilers purely on the basis of a missed cut in the Sony. The young Englishman looked a winner waiting to happen towards the end of the 2005 season and is expected to finally land his first Stateside victory in 2006. Despite blowing a couple of decent opportunities to win, I have every faith in Justin's bottle based on 4 worldwide wins in 2001 before his game went into a trough following the death of his father. He's always been the type of aggressive big-hitter liable to prosper on easy resort courses such as these. If you get on early this morning, there may some 80/1 left with Betfred.

Just about the only thing I got right at the Sony was that JERRY KELLY would be a good bet on the spreads and I expect him to go well again here. Again thinking about over-reaction to last week, it could be well worth opposing Chad Campbell in a tournament where his previous record is poor. After his best week in a long time, Chad is near the head of the betting so it should be possible to oppose him with some serious contenders in match bets, TIM CLARK being the most obvious. Tiny Tim has proved himself a model of consistency in the last couple of years and a friend to the spread and match bettor. Having finished a creditable 2nd last year in his first Bob Hope, the South African looks a very likely candidate. Another player to side with in speciality bets is the consistent but weak under pressure TIM HERRON, who has two top-10s in the past three years in this event.

We also have the European Tour's first event of 2006 in Abu Dhabi this week, and a fine field has assembled too with big money on offer for a new event. The problem here is that, for betting purposes, there is an enormous amount of guesswork required as we have no course form, and not much recent form to work from. VIJAY SINGH is very much the one to beat again. After narrowly missing out in Kapalua, last week's 6th was a perfectly respectable effort even if he finished 10 shots behind runaway winner David Toms. Compared to struggling second favourite Sergio Garcia or permanently over-rated fourth favourite Colin Montgomerie, Vijay's odds of 9/2 look perfectly reasonable without standing out. As I'm loathe to entirely leave Vijay out of the staking plan, I'm going to have a saver and also a small double with Mickelson at odds that accumulate to over 35/1.

But for the main bets, I'm going for an English trio. Its very hard to overlook the claims of rising star DAVID HOWELL, who I fancy is on the verge of moving into the big league. Asides a short spell when affected by injury, the Swindon man has been a model of consistency over the past 18 months and, by giving Tiger a head-to-head beating in Hong Kong recently, has finally nailed accusations of being a bottler. Having shown plenty of form in the Gulf previously, its hard to see Howell out of the places.

Nobody finished the year stronger than PAUL CASEY, who looked a man in a hurry to restore his reputation after a poor first half of 2005. The par-5s are likely to be a big factor this week as all are in that 550 yard range that makes them easy birdie territory only for the longer hitters. Few in the game hit it further than Casey so expect him to be picking up shots here.

Finally, I'm expecting a big year for NICK DOUGHERTY so he merits inclusion here at 50/1. Dougherty has long been talked of as a prodigy with as much potential on the world stage as Luke Donald, Casey and Howell but only really started to fulfil that promise last year. But a series of rock solid efforts last summer, followed by a career best second to Howell in Hong Kong when tied with Tiger showed that he is ready to step up a grade.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

BOB HOPE CLASSIC

4pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 6/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BEN CRANE @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE - 80/1 WITH BETFRED)

MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS

SUPPORT TIM CLARK
SUPPORT JERRY KELLY
SUPPORT TIM HERRON
OPPOSE CHAD CAMPBELL

ABU DHABI CLASSIC - (CHECK OTHER BOOKIES AS MANY YET TO PRICE UP)

2pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 9/2 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 14/1 (BETFRED)
1.5pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 28/1 (SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2pts WIN DOUBLE MICKELSON & SINGH (BET DIRECT BEST AT 37.5/1)

2006 STATISTICS (After Week 2) (-0.25pts)
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts

New Sports Betting Advisory Service

As you can see, I provide a weekly analysis of the best golf bets on this site free of charge, along with the occasional snooker or politics preview. These make up a very small percentage of my turnover every week and are basically just an introduction to the events in question.I am now also providing a subscription service for a more comprehensive daily analysis of the day's best value.

There will be a mixture of outright bets, and in-running trades. Two subscription options are available. For £10 per week, you'll get the comprehensive golf analysis which will consist of at least three e-mails each week. At the start of the week, I'll pinpoint the early trading value and then after Rounds 2 and 3, I'll advise you of all the best trades ahead of that day's play.The other option is, at £20 per week, a comprehensive analysis of all the sporting events that my attention will be focussed on. Apart from golf, the main sports I cover are cricket, snooker, international football, top-class National Hunt racing and the occasional tennis tournament. As well as these, I'll share any politics betting advice if and when a suitable market arises.There will be a Paypal option on the site very soon, but for now you'll have to contact me to arrange payment. You can either e-mail me at paulmotty@hotmail.com or leave a message and e-mail address below.

Good Luck!

Masters Snooker Preview

Starting with next week's Masters event at Wembley, long suffering snooker fans can now look forward to our only decent spell of the year as there are several tournaments in the run-up to April's World Championship. The Masters is an invitational event for the World's top-16, with two wild card entries. I'm sure if the tournament organisers could have foreseen the result of December's UK Championship, Chinese prodigy Ding Junhui would have been granted one of those wildcards but while Ding is at Prestatyn this week trying to qualify for the big one in April, the alternative wild card entries are more than capable of making an impact. Ian McCulloch, a World semi-finalist in 2005, and in-form Stuart Bingham make up the field.

But shocks are not the usual order of the day at Wembley, and no doubt Ronnie O'Sullivan's legion of fans will be steaming into the 9/4 about the Londoner successfully defending his title. Don't be lured in. Of course the Rocket is always capable of winning, but its hard to think of a contestant in any sport who consistently represents worse value for several reasons. Firstly, and most obviously, the guy is a headcase. Since suffering a virtual nervous breakdown when in a seemingly unassailable position against Peter Ebdon at Sheffield, we've heard all the usual tiresome complaints about how sick he is of the game. In three events this year he's yet to win, beaten by the vastly inferior Joe Swail and Mark King, while a back to form JOHN HIGGINS trounced him in the Grand Prix final. Secondly, even at his best he's never been value. For a player whom the betting constantly rates as different class to the rest, his win ratio has never been impressive. Just 2 World Championships in 13 attempts tells its own story, especially when compared to the 13 won by his two predecessors at the game's summit, Steve Davis and Stephen Hendry. Thirdly, the draw is by no means straightforward. McCulloch is no pushover in the first round, and then he will face either Bingham or Sheffield nemesis Ebdon. Bingham has been in excellent form this year and would be a worthy recruit to the top 16, but Ebdon would be the tougher opponent. One of the last remaining old-style grinders, Ebdon has spooked Ronnie on more than one occasion during their careers by slowing the game down and will be relishing the contest.

Ronnie's short price, as always, means there is plenty of value elsewhere. The standout bet here for me is STEPHEN MAGUIRE at 9/1. 'On Fire' Maguire is available a double figures purely because his 2005-2006 season has yet to live up to its high expectations. I expected him to be the man to beat this season, but in the Premier League and the opening two ranking events his form was indeed very disappointing and the Glaswegian looked like he was struggling to cope with his World No 3 tag. But at York last month in the first 'Major' event of the year, he looked on his way back when trouncing Swail and then taking an 8-6 lead against Steve Davis. What followed was one of the most impressive comebacks in recent years, as the Nugget turned the clock back 20 years to win the last 4 frames. In the words of Maguire, "He played like God". That match was arguably the best of the competition and in my view, Maguire lost nothing. I'm a strong believer that, at his best, Maguire is the best player in the world. When in form and in the balls, he simply doesn't miss and is the best breakbuilder since Hendry at his peak. In three outings against Ronnie last year (in arguably O'Sullivan's best year), Maguire won 2 comfortably by scorelines of 6-1 and 9-6 before their memorable Sheffield clash. There, the Scot led 9-7 and needed only three straightforward pots before missing a sitter, and giving Ronnie the chance for a spectacular comeback. Sooner or later, Maguire will win again and double figure quotes will be a thing of the past. At the very least he looks a good trade, as first round opponent Stephen Lee has done nothing for ages.

In the bottom half of the draw, I fancy JOHN HIGGINS to emerge. The Wizard of Wishaw has been frustratingly inconsistent in recent years, struggling for concentration at key times though he has always looked like he retained his ability. But when winning the Grand Prix in October, he looked right back to his best, trouncing O'Sullivan in the final. Again, the draw has been kind with Jimmy White his first round opponent. You never know with Jimmy at Wembley and his fanatical support, but the Whirlwind hasn't looked up to the task lately and I expect Higgins to brush him aside. 13/2 for Higgins will probably look very big after that match.

Higgins will probably face either Stephen Hendry or MARK WILLIAMS in the semi-finals, should he reach that far. Williams' decline in recent years has been frankly unbelievable as the dual World Champ has slipped from World No 1 to provisionally No 25. The reason for backing him here is that his first round opponent is Paul Hunter, who is suffering from cancer and can't be expected to put up any sort of showing. In a potential quarter final against Hendry, Williams would be the outsider but Hendry's own form is terribly inconsistent and I could see the Welshman turning him over. Williams played much better at York last month before losing to Hendry to a scoreline that flattered the Scot a little. Throughout their careers in the many great matches between these two friends, Williams has often had the edge. Again at the very least he should trade much shorter than the 14/1 on offer.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

7pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 9/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BLUESQ, STAN JAMES)
5pts win JOHN HIGGINS @ 13/2 (SPORTING ODDS)
3pts win MARK WILLIAMS @ 14/1 (LAY BACK AT LESS THAN 5/1) (HILLS, TOTE)

New Sports Betting Advisory Service

As you can see, I provide a weekly analysis of the best golf bets on this site free of charge, along with the occasional snooker or politics preview. These make up a very small percentage of my turnover every week and are basically just an introduction to the events in question.

I am now also providing a subscription service for a more comprehensive daily analysis of the day's best value. There will be a mixture of outright bets, and in-running trades. Two subscription options are available. For £10 per week, you'll get the comprehensive golf analysis which will consist of at least three e-mails each week. At the start of the week, I'll pinpoint the early trading value and then after Rounds 2 and 3, I'll advise you of all the best trades ahead of that day's play.

The other option is, at £20 per week, a comprehensive analysis of all the sporting events that my attention will be focussed on. Apart from golf, the main sports I cover are cricket, snooker, international football, top-class National Hunt racing and the occasional tennis tournament. As well as these, I'll share any politics betting advice if and when a suitable market arises.

There will be a Paypal option on the site very soon, but for now you'll have to contact me to arrange payment. You can either e-mail me at paulmotty@hotmail.com or leave a message and e-mail address below.

Good Luck!

Young Aussies can pass Sony test

After last week's PGA Tour curtain raiser invitational event for 2005 winners, the rest of the tour kick off this week with the first regulation tournament of the year. We're still in Hawaii for the Sony Open, but the test at Waialae is very different from the Kapalua Plantation. Whereas the Mercedes was played on extremely wide, exposed fairways with very strong winds as the course's main defence, Waialae is tree-lined with small greens and places a very strong emphasis on accuracy from tee to green though, being Hawaii, wind is still a major factor.

Very much like the Mercedes, this event has been dominated by the leading players in recent years, especially since the course was toughened up in 1999. One player above all others has an outstanding record here, Ernie Els, who has finished 1st, 1st and 2nd since 2003. Thankfully for the opposition the Big Easy has chosen not to interrupt his winter break and misses the event. Without wishing to sound like a lazy favourite backer, this has very much left the way clear for defending champion VIJAY SINGH.

We were very unlucky not to open the year with a winner at Kapalua where Vijay was touched off in a play-off by hat-trick seeking Stuart Appleby. Anyone who watched the final round will have been left in no doubt about the wellbeing of Singh's game. I know its early days, but I'll be surprised if we see a better round in 2006 than his closing 66 in gruelling conditions. It took Vijay a while to get the hang of Waialae before coming good last year, touching off Els and Shigeki Maruyama. 4/1 in a field of 150 is nothing to write home about compared to 5/1 in a field of 28 last week, but the Fijian superstar simply has to enter calculations.

There are several other leading challengers, but all have plenty to prove on this course. Jim Furyk won here 10 years ago but has done nothing since, while I would be astonished if Stuart Appleby repeated the sort of form that he only ever seems to show at Kapalua under these less suitable conditions. Adam Scott has done little on two previous visits. David Toms has shown promise here, but struggled over the weekend and I'm loathe to back anyone who played last week other than Singh as the difficulty of conditions may have affected players' confidence and swings. A better alternative to the favourite is SHIGEKI MARUYAMA, who looked every inch the winner last year before succumbing on the final day. That was his second top-10 at Waialae in three years and the Japanese star clearly possesses the skills required for this test. In particular, Maruyama plays windy conditions better than most which is crucial in Hawaii.

The accurate JERRY KELLY looks likely to add to his formidable bank of form on this course. Despite winning here four years ago, Jerry has never been the strongest of finishers so match and spread bets remain the most sensible format for him. Back in the outright market, I'd rather take a small chance at massive prices on a couple of Australians. When AARON BADDELEY lost in a play-off here in 2003 I don't think there was a single golf expert on the planet who would have predicted that he would still have failed to win three years down the line. Lets not forget this is a guy who won back to back Australian Opens as a teenager so clearly he possesses the mental skills needed for victory. In fact, I suspect overconfidence has been more of a problem as he was surrounded by a publicity machine immediately after the first of those victories. The talent hasn't gone away and there have been glimpses of form since, and last time out Aaron finished an excellent 5th in another Aussie Open. I'm certain he will win at some stage, and at 100/1 its worth chancing that this is the week.

Baddeley's compatriot MATTHEW GOGGIN makes his first start as a PGA Tour cardholder and is my final selection at a whopping 150/1. Apart from gaining that card, the clearest sign that this is a player on the up was Matthew's vastly improved form in Australia in December. In the past, he'd shown plenty of promise on the Nationwide Tour without producing the goods on the tougher courses at home. Tying with Baddeley in his national Open and following up with the runners up slot to an inspired Robert Allenby the following week represented a career peak. Having produced form on similarly tricky, windy courses where accuracy was at a premium, Goggin makes plenty of appeal at the odds.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

4pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 4/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew SHIGEKI MARUYAMA @ 40/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BETDIRECT, TOTE, BETFRED)0.5pts ew AARON BADDELEY @ 100/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BETDIRECT, BLUESQ, BETFRED)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 250/1 WITH TOTE!)

2006 STATISTICS (After Week 1): +7.75pts
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts

Is Ming really the saviour?

In years to come, I have a strong suspicion that the Liberal Democrats may look back on the events of the past week as the moment they blew their best opportunity in modern British politics. Obviously, Charles Kennedy's alcoholism created a huge problem for the party, especially after David Cameron's emergence as Tory leader and shift towards a more liberal emphasis. But to dispatch him so mercilessly via a series of nasty leaks does strike me as throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Perhaps the ambitious 'modernising' (I'm beginning to really hate that word), section of the party had begun to believe some of the guff that passes for political journalism in Britain. Editorials and comment in nearly all of the broadsheets have united around the myth that somehow the 2005 election result was a failure for Kennedy, based on the disappointing tally of 62 seats. I don't know if these pundits are aware of this, but the third party don't get to choose the voting system at elections. Take away the appalling bias of our first past the post system, and Kennedy's party had their finest hour last May. As I argued in my election betting preview at the time, there was never any scope at all for a total of more than 75 seats. True, the decapitation strategy failed miserably for a variety of reasons. It proved impossible to win in the Tory heartlands with a distinctly left-of-centre manifesto, and more to the point the Tory hierachy was unlikely to be taken unawares as in 2001. The Tories' campaigning techniques had improved beyond recognition and the MPs concerned placed far greater emphasis on defending their own seats. But even that came at a cost as key Tory resources were diverted from other marginal battlegrounds, allowing the Lib Dems to comfortably hold other seats and move into second place in more consituencies than ever.

But the bigger picture was undoubtably rosy. 23% of the vote is a figure that the third party had not dared to dream about since the heady early days of the Alliance in the 1980s. A principled, redistributive, anti-war stance had made inroads into Labour's heartlands. This is where the future of the party should lie. Its fair to assume that the Tory results from 1997 - 2005 represent a low watermark for that party. If the Lib Dems couldn't win places like Orpington and Maidenhead now, then there is no prospect of them doing so after the Cameron revival. Labour, alternatively, look like a tired unpopular government, shorn of members and activists and hopelessly out of touch with the core working class constituency. Wherever Kennedy's charges had taken the fight to Labour in council or by-elections, whether it be Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield or Brent-East, the results had been very promising.

So what now? There is no successor that will do obviously better. Sir Menzies Campbell is odds-on favourite and commands the support of the vast majority of MPs. I like and respect Ming enormously. For the small minority of people who follow political life intensely, he is undoubtably an intellectual heavyweight. His pragmatic, forensic opposition to the Iraq war showed his qualities in the best light. But will a 64 year-old grandee, who seems far more suited to Westminster than "Chat Show Charlie", be able to communicate a simple message in the way Kennedy could? I doubt it. Critics in the Westminster bubble loved to mock Kennedy for appearing in Eastenders and Have I Got News For You, but poll after poll showed the public liked and trusted him. In 2001, against a backdrop of the main two parties promising better public services alongside no increase in tax or even tax cuts, Kennedy's honesty seemed refreshing. And when cool judgement was most required over Iraq, Charlie played an absolute blinder. Sure he looked lightweight at PMQs, but I wonder if it cost him a single vote.

Campbell will do very well to match these achievements, and the best they can hope for is to consolidate, weather the Cameroon honeymoon period before handing over in 5 years to one of the up and coming stars like Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne. The crucial issue is where Campbell positions the party in terms of domestic policy, as foreign policy is unlikely to ever be as electorally salient as in 2005. The strong hints are that the party will ditch its commitment to an increased 50% tax band for people earning over 100K. Some of the more radical MPs have even flirted with the neo-conservative wet dream of a flat tax rate. Quite who this is aimed at pleasing is beyond me. I just can't envisage a future scenario where people who desire such a system vote anything other than Tory. For all the talk of occupying the hallowed 'centre-ground', the third party must be distinctive or it will be crushed.

Far better in my view to go with the leftish Simon Hughes. As one of an increasingly small band of MPs who have some experience of working life outside Westminster and big business - Hughes was a cab driver before winning the Labour stronghold of Bermondsey in 1982 - he has the common touch that eludes so many politicians. As well as holding that seat for 23 years (no mean feat for a Liberal in such a socially conservative, working class area), this fluent media performer is well used to winning over TV audiences with his simple liberal, social democratic message. I only hope the party membership picks Hughes or political choice in Britain will be even more narrow than it is already.

Cameron the socialist?

Hope springs eternal. People always say we get cynical as we get older. As I've approached and passed the 30 mark, slowly but surely any hope of a left-wing renaissance has disintegrated as the political centre of gravity in Britain shifts further and further to the Right. But in the last week or so, it suddenly appears me and my ever decreasing band of travellers on the Left have a new comrade, and a smooth, telegenic one at that. Maybe its all been a dream, but in recent days, new Tory leader David Cameron has argued in favour of the redistribution of wealth and reduction of inequality, the NHS, tuition fees and...wait for it...higher spending on aid to the Third World. Now I have swallowed a bucket of salt but in the cause of New Year optimism, I would like to welcome Eton's finest aboard.

Welcome aboard David - we can build the new Jerusalem!

Rejuvenated Singh the Mercedes bet

Well rested after a lazy Christmas, I'm counting the hours until Sky's coverage of the 2006 golf season starts at Thursday midnight with the Mercedes Championship from the Kapalua Plantation in Hawaii. While the slightly earlier start than usual to the calendar is a bonus for us golf-starved punters, several of the world's top players have deemed it too intrusive of their winter break and withdrawn, most notably Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Retief Goosen. This tournament is reserved for winners on the PGA Tour in 2005 so the field is down to a bare minimum of 28, with Vijay Singh the only member of the world's top 5 and only six from the top 20 in attendance.

Previous form at Kapalua suggests that this course favours long hitters who can handle the usually windy conditions, while the wide open fairways place a higher premium than usual on the second shot. This all tends to favour the best players and make upsets very unlikely. Of the last ten Mercedes champions, only Appleby and Sergio Garcia are non-Major winners. The lack of strength in depth must further enhance the likelihood of World No 30 Stuart Appleby winning this for the third year in succession, but his price is suitably adjusted to 14/1 and represents no sort of value for such an improbable feat.

In such circumstances, the price of 5/1 for VIJAY SINGH deserves at least the raising of an eyebrow. Despite failing to win here in six attempts, the Fijian star has never been lower than 8th and only once out of the top 5 and the absent Woods and Els filled several of the positions ahead of him in many of those years. The downside is that Vijay's form tailed off in the second half of 2005 though he did finish with a couple of top-5s. Alternatively another upside is that this workaholic is the one player in the field that is guaranteed not to be rusty after the break. My guess is that Singh will at the very least trade quite a bit shorter over the weekend so he must be worth a saver.

Jim Furyk also holds some impressive Kapalua form including a victory in 2001, and won the Nedbank in Sun City only a few weeks ago. Like Appleby, though, Furyk's chances have not been missed by bookmakers and his odds of 6/1 make no appeal for such an infrequent winner. Sergio Garcia is also in single figures, and has won here before, but can't be backed at such odds while his putting remains in crisis.

Far better value lies in finding some each-way alternatives. With several rank outsiders in the field of 28, this week's terms of four places at a quarter of the odds should yield some value. US Open champion MICHAEL CAMPBELL continues to be underestimated by the bookies at 18/1 and looks the perfect case in point. A year ago his game was in total crisis but Cambo went from strength to strength after that first Major victory in June, winning the World Matchplay and cementing his place in golf's top division with a series of fine efforts in the highest company. Though hindered by the disadvantage of never having played Kapalua before, Michael looks exactly the type to prosper here and on his last outing at the Target Challenge played three rounds of sublime golf before a last day flop.

Even more obvious each-way value lies with BEN CRANE at 28/1. Crane was a revelation in the second half of 2005 and very much looks one of the Americans to follow in 2006. Interestingly, Crane finished a credible 8th here on his debut here two years ago, when nothing like the top-class performer that he has now become. Low scoring is highly likely so Crane's very hot putter should be a big asset this week.

Finally, at a much bigger price, I'm sticking VAUGHAN TAYLOR in the staking plan at 66/1. Similarly to Crane, Taylor finished eighth on his Kapalua debut with four solid rounds. Also like Crane, he is on my list of players to note for 2006, though still a division below.

For those of us prepared to do the full night-shift over the weekend, there is also a new team matchplay event in Asia starting in the early hours Saturday morning, the Royal Trophy. Two teams of eight represent Europe and Asia, with the format being the usual mixture of foursomes, fourballs and last day singles. There are probably too many of these team events nowadays, and at other stages of the year I'd probably completely ignore this event. But, probably because I'm just desperate for a golf bet after the break, I am going to have a bet on EUROPE here. Though the Asians do have home advantage, they regularly come out second best to the leading Europeans even in this part of the world and the difference in class between the teams is very obvious looking at the world rankings. The only potential handicap is the inclusion of old-timers Nick Faldo and Ian Woosnam, but this is more than compensated by the presence of rising world stars David Howell and Henrik Stenson.

With every player guaranteed three matches, there is less obvious value than usual in the top scorer markets. For an interest, I suggest a couple of small bets on GRAEME MCDOWELL and ARJUN ATWAL. McDowell is another name from my players for 2006 list, and has shown a liking for matchplay in the past, while Atwal has plenty of form on the US Tour that is in another galaxy to most of his team-mates.

Good Luck!

MERCEDES CHAMPIONSHIP

6pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 5/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 18/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew BEN CRANE @ 25/1 (HILLS, VICTOR CHANDLER, SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew VAUGHAN TAYLOR @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

ROYAL TROPHY

7.5pts win EUROPE @ 4/6 (BET365)

1pt win GRAEME MCDOWELL TO BE TOP EUROPEAN SCORER @ 13/2 (STAN JAMES)
1pt win ARJUN ATWAL TO BE TOP ASIAN SCORER @ 7/1 (BLUESQ, SPORTING ODDS)

2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts