Time for young prospects Rose and Dougherty to deliver
As of this week, the golf season is back in full swing with two events on the two main Tours, and for a nice change we haven't got to stay awake all night to watch them.
In the States, we have the very rare instance of a 5-round event with the pro-am Bob Hope Classic. Expect the TV coverage to be atrocious for the first few days with too much focus on celebrities, but I'm sure American golden boy PHIL MICKELSON will get plenty of coverage as he bids to defend his title and land his third Bob Hope in 5 years. Whether to back Mickelson or not is always a huge conundrum. Year after year, Lefty has proved a goldmine for punters during the West Coast Swing and will surely win at least win over the next month. It also stands to reason that in a, 5 round event, the favourites have a greater chance of establishing superiority and he is very much the class act in a moderate field. Countering that argument, there are always doubts to be had about backing a player on his first event after a winter break. Interestingly though, Mickelson's last two Bob Hope wins have come on his seasonal debut so he must warrant a place in the staking plan.
At this early stage of the season, there is a tendency among bookmakers to over-react. This tournament is a completely different sort of test to either of the events in Hawaii of the past fortnight. Whereas the wind has been a huge factor so far, and accuracy to the green essential at Waialae, this pro-am is bound to be primarily a putting contest in very easy conditions.
A classic example could be hot prospect BEN CRANE. Ben's performance in the season's curtain raiser at Kapalua was a bitter disappointment to me. I can only put it down to an inability to cope with the very strong winds that week, and am willing to overlook it. In superb form in the latter half of 2005, and 5th here in 2004 when nothing like the player he is today, a superb putter like Crane looks a very obvious contender this week and well worth chancing at 40/1.
Another player whose price looks very generous is JUSTIN ROSE, who may have been written off by some odds compilers purely on the basis of a missed cut in the Sony. The young Englishman looked a winner waiting to happen towards the end of the 2005 season and is expected to finally land his first Stateside victory in 2006. Despite blowing a couple of decent opportunities to win, I have every faith in Justin's bottle based on 4 worldwide wins in 2001 before his game went into a trough following the death of his father. He's always been the type of aggressive big-hitter liable to prosper on easy resort courses such as these. If you get on early this morning, there may some 80/1 left with Betfred.
Just about the only thing I got right at the Sony was that JERRY KELLY would be a good bet on the spreads and I expect him to go well again here. Again thinking about over-reaction to last week, it could be well worth opposing Chad Campbell in a tournament where his previous record is poor. After his best week in a long time, Chad is near the head of the betting so it should be possible to oppose him with some serious contenders in match bets, TIM CLARK being the most obvious. Tiny Tim has proved himself a model of consistency in the last couple of years and a friend to the spread and match bettor. Having finished a creditable 2nd last year in his first Bob Hope, the South African looks a very likely candidate. Another player to side with in speciality bets is the consistent but weak under pressure TIM HERRON, who has two top-10s in the past three years in this event.
We also have the European Tour's first event of 2006 in Abu Dhabi this week, and a fine field has assembled too with big money on offer for a new event. The problem here is that, for betting purposes, there is an enormous amount of guesswork required as we have no course form, and not much recent form to work from. VIJAY SINGH is very much the one to beat again. After narrowly missing out in Kapalua, last week's 6th was a perfectly respectable effort even if he finished 10 shots behind runaway winner David Toms. Compared to struggling second favourite Sergio Garcia or permanently over-rated fourth favourite Colin Montgomerie, Vijay's odds of 9/2 look perfectly reasonable without standing out. As I'm loathe to entirely leave Vijay out of the staking plan, I'm going to have a saver and also a small double with Mickelson at odds that accumulate to over 35/1.
But for the main bets, I'm going for an English trio. Its very hard to overlook the claims of rising star DAVID HOWELL, who I fancy is on the verge of moving into the big league. Asides a short spell when affected by injury, the Swindon man has been a model of consistency over the past 18 months and, by giving Tiger a head-to-head beating in Hong Kong recently, has finally nailed accusations of being a bottler. Having shown plenty of form in the Gulf previously, its hard to see Howell out of the places.
Nobody finished the year stronger than PAUL CASEY, who looked a man in a hurry to restore his reputation after a poor first half of 2005. The par-5s are likely to be a big factor this week as all are in that 550 yard range that makes them easy birdie territory only for the longer hitters. Few in the game hit it further than Casey so expect him to be picking up shots here.
Finally, I'm expecting a big year for NICK DOUGHERTY so he merits inclusion here at 50/1. Dougherty has long been talked of as a prodigy with as much potential on the world stage as Luke Donald, Casey and Howell but only really started to fulfil that promise last year. But a series of rock solid efforts last summer, followed by a career best second to Howell in Hong Kong when tied with Tiger showed that he is ready to step up a grade.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
BOB HOPE CLASSIC
4pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 6/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BEN CRANE @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE - 80/1 WITH BETFRED)
MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS
SUPPORT TIM CLARK
SUPPORT JERRY KELLY
SUPPORT TIM HERRON
OPPOSE CHAD CAMPBELL
ABU DHABI CLASSIC - (CHECK OTHER BOOKIES AS MANY YET TO PRICE UP)
2pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 9/2 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 14/1 (BETFRED)
1.5pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 28/1 (SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts WIN DOUBLE MICKELSON & SINGH (BET DIRECT BEST AT 37.5/1)
2006 STATISTICS (After Week 2) (-0.25pts)
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts
In the States, we have the very rare instance of a 5-round event with the pro-am Bob Hope Classic. Expect the TV coverage to be atrocious for the first few days with too much focus on celebrities, but I'm sure American golden boy PHIL MICKELSON will get plenty of coverage as he bids to defend his title and land his third Bob Hope in 5 years. Whether to back Mickelson or not is always a huge conundrum. Year after year, Lefty has proved a goldmine for punters during the West Coast Swing and will surely win at least win over the next month. It also stands to reason that in a, 5 round event, the favourites have a greater chance of establishing superiority and he is very much the class act in a moderate field. Countering that argument, there are always doubts to be had about backing a player on his first event after a winter break. Interestingly though, Mickelson's last two Bob Hope wins have come on his seasonal debut so he must warrant a place in the staking plan.
At this early stage of the season, there is a tendency among bookmakers to over-react. This tournament is a completely different sort of test to either of the events in Hawaii of the past fortnight. Whereas the wind has been a huge factor so far, and accuracy to the green essential at Waialae, this pro-am is bound to be primarily a putting contest in very easy conditions.
A classic example could be hot prospect BEN CRANE. Ben's performance in the season's curtain raiser at Kapalua was a bitter disappointment to me. I can only put it down to an inability to cope with the very strong winds that week, and am willing to overlook it. In superb form in the latter half of 2005, and 5th here in 2004 when nothing like the player he is today, a superb putter like Crane looks a very obvious contender this week and well worth chancing at 40/1.
Another player whose price looks very generous is JUSTIN ROSE, who may have been written off by some odds compilers purely on the basis of a missed cut in the Sony. The young Englishman looked a winner waiting to happen towards the end of the 2005 season and is expected to finally land his first Stateside victory in 2006. Despite blowing a couple of decent opportunities to win, I have every faith in Justin's bottle based on 4 worldwide wins in 2001 before his game went into a trough following the death of his father. He's always been the type of aggressive big-hitter liable to prosper on easy resort courses such as these. If you get on early this morning, there may some 80/1 left with Betfred.
Just about the only thing I got right at the Sony was that JERRY KELLY would be a good bet on the spreads and I expect him to go well again here. Again thinking about over-reaction to last week, it could be well worth opposing Chad Campbell in a tournament where his previous record is poor. After his best week in a long time, Chad is near the head of the betting so it should be possible to oppose him with some serious contenders in match bets, TIM CLARK being the most obvious. Tiny Tim has proved himself a model of consistency in the last couple of years and a friend to the spread and match bettor. Having finished a creditable 2nd last year in his first Bob Hope, the South African looks a very likely candidate. Another player to side with in speciality bets is the consistent but weak under pressure TIM HERRON, who has two top-10s in the past three years in this event.
We also have the European Tour's first event of 2006 in Abu Dhabi this week, and a fine field has assembled too with big money on offer for a new event. The problem here is that, for betting purposes, there is an enormous amount of guesswork required as we have no course form, and not much recent form to work from. VIJAY SINGH is very much the one to beat again. After narrowly missing out in Kapalua, last week's 6th was a perfectly respectable effort even if he finished 10 shots behind runaway winner David Toms. Compared to struggling second favourite Sergio Garcia or permanently over-rated fourth favourite Colin Montgomerie, Vijay's odds of 9/2 look perfectly reasonable without standing out. As I'm loathe to entirely leave Vijay out of the staking plan, I'm going to have a saver and also a small double with Mickelson at odds that accumulate to over 35/1.
But for the main bets, I'm going for an English trio. Its very hard to overlook the claims of rising star DAVID HOWELL, who I fancy is on the verge of moving into the big league. Asides a short spell when affected by injury, the Swindon man has been a model of consistency over the past 18 months and, by giving Tiger a head-to-head beating in Hong Kong recently, has finally nailed accusations of being a bottler. Having shown plenty of form in the Gulf previously, its hard to see Howell out of the places.
Nobody finished the year stronger than PAUL CASEY, who looked a man in a hurry to restore his reputation after a poor first half of 2005. The par-5s are likely to be a big factor this week as all are in that 550 yard range that makes them easy birdie territory only for the longer hitters. Few in the game hit it further than Casey so expect him to be picking up shots here.
Finally, I'm expecting a big year for NICK DOUGHERTY so he merits inclusion here at 50/1. Dougherty has long been talked of as a prodigy with as much potential on the world stage as Luke Donald, Casey and Howell but only really started to fulfil that promise last year. But a series of rock solid efforts last summer, followed by a career best second to Howell in Hong Kong when tied with Tiger showed that he is ready to step up a grade.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
BOB HOPE CLASSIC
4pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 6/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BEN CRANE @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE - 80/1 WITH BETFRED)
MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS
SUPPORT TIM CLARK
SUPPORT JERRY KELLY
SUPPORT TIM HERRON
OPPOSE CHAD CAMPBELL
ABU DHABI CLASSIC - (CHECK OTHER BOOKIES AS MANY YET TO PRICE UP)
2pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 9/2 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 14/1 (BETFRED)
1.5pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 28/1 (SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts WIN DOUBLE MICKELSON & SINGH (BET DIRECT BEST AT 37.5/1)
2006 STATISTICS (After Week 2) (-0.25pts)
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 9:54 PM
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