Mickelson up to defending at Scottsdale
Two world-class events in Dubai and Arizona provide the setting for a great weekend of golf, with all of the big 5 now back in action. Tiger Woods, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen head a stellar field as the European Tour continues its 'Desert Swing' with its annual fixture at the Emirates Club, the Dubai Desert Classic.
A strong European challenge is led by fast emerging Henrik Stenson, who finally got a monkey of his back with a victory in Qatar. Importantly, Stenson led all the way and silenced those who doubted his temperament. I wouldn't argue with those who think Stenson is a future Major winner, but at almost half the price this week of the next European contender, I need to see a bit more to take these very cramped odds.
Woods opened his 2006 campaign with a play-off win at Torrey Pines on Sunday, and clearly is in good nick. Five win from his last nine starts suggests that even very short priced bets on Woods can pay, so I couldn't provide an argument against a bet at 11/4 on value grounds. However, I'm still looking elsewhere for pre-tournament bets as there must be every chance a bigger price will be available in-running. And its also important to remember that Torrey Pines is a course where we routinely expect Tiger to dominate, less so in Dubai.
Els has a fantastic record at the Emirates Course, and is tempting at 7/1 but hasn't competed in an event anywhere near this magnitude since last Spring and wasn't particularly impressive last week. Given his outstanding finish to 2005, Goosen's price is surprisingly big. Presumably this is based on a dubious assumption that he won't be 100% for his first outing of the year, but is overlooked as he's never produced his best golf in this part of the world.
So with it hard to particularly favour any one of the leading four more than the others, I'm leaving them all alone and going for three each-way bets instead. Firstly, I simply must perservere with DAVID HOWELL, especially as his odds are a massive over-reaction to two bad weeks. Any profits made from Howell's Hong Kong win have been given back in the meantime, but at 28/1 this could be a chance to move back into the black on a player who remains one to follow. Howell stands -25 for his last eight rounds on this course, and also has happy memories of this event which he won at a different venue 7 years ago.
Sweden's NICLAS FASTH is oozing self-confidence at the moment, convinced his game is better than ever. He did as much as anyone to try and chase down runaway winner Stenson in Qatar, and finished 2nd on his penultimate Emirates Club visit. This feisty competitor showed a couple of times in 2005 that he is well capable of winning tournaments when on song, and must rate worthy of an each-way bet even in this exalted class.
Bookmakers appeared to have over-reacted to a disappointing opening event of the year for PAUL CASEY in Dubai. At the tail-end of the year Casey looked a likely contender in every event so its a surprise to see him available now at 50/1. I expect Paul to score heavily on the par-5s this week, and will be one of the few players capable of keeping up with Woods, Els, Goosen and Stenson on those holes.
Aussie left-hander NICK O'HERN's first event of the year finished well with a couple of decent rounds over the weekend in Qatar and he should have shaken any rust out his game. If Nick reverts to the form he was showing at the end of 2005 then he will certainly rack up another series of low finishes. Unfortunately he also showed in many of those starts that he remains someone to avoid at all costs when in contention and the preferred option is match and spread bets.
The PGA Tour moves on to Scottsdale, Arizona for its long-standing desert event, scene of the loudest and rowdiest crowds. The locals will doubtless be screaming for their hero and defending champion, PHIL MICKELSON. It will not be easy with Vijay Singh, Sergio Garcia in opposition as well as bang-in-form recent winners DAVID TOMS and Chris Dimarco. Lefty hasn't been quite at his brilliant best so far in 2006, as by his own admission he has been shaking off rust from an extended winter break. Nevertheless, he was on the fringes of contention at the Bob Hope and could easily have won at Torrey Pines but for a few three putts and a poor back 9 on Sunday. Scottsdale really plays into the hands of Phil's risk-reward game and he must be the one to beat.
The overall balance of Singh's Scottsdale form is nothing out of the ordinary and he only won this when at his very best, which was not the case in either of the past two weeks. Garcia is clearly hitting the ball magnificently but remains a player to avoid. For once his putting wasn't atrocious at Torrey Pines, but then he throws in another awful final day performance when holding the lead.
Toms makes much more appeal. Time and again this guy has proved he is a winner - there are very few players I would rather back under the pressures of a final day. And at Waialae, Toms showed just how well he has started the year, slaughtering a world class field on a difficult golf course. Its interesting that he had a fortnight's break after that win, and looks likely to be primed for contention. Certainly, three top-11 finishes on his last three visits will have convinced Toms that this is one of his best winning opportunities of the year.
Chris Dimarco has a superb Scottsdale record and finally answered questions about his 'bottle' with a gutsy front-running win in Abu Dhabi a fortnight ago. Dimarco looks a different player since leading the US to victory in last autumn's President Cup and is very reluctantly overlooked, simply on the grounds that all value has gone out of his price now. Another player I expect to go well for speciality bet purposes is the consistent SCOTT VERPLANK, another one stuck with the bottler tag. Alternatively, good recent form may have forced bookies to over-estimate the chances of Chad Campbell and Jose-Maria Olazabal. Scottsdale is quite a quirky course, and neither have ever shown much liking for it so might well be worth opposing.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC
2pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 28/1 (CORALS, SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew NICLAS FASTH @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PAUL CASEY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MATCHES, SPREADS AND 2-BALLS
SUPPORT NICK O'HERN
FBR OPEN
6pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 13/2 (BET365, BETDIRECT, STAN JAMES, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew DAVID TOMS @ 14/1 (BET DIRECT, BLUESQ, STAN JAMES)
MATCHES, SPREADS AND 2-BALLS
SUPPORT SCOTT VERPLANK
OPPOSE CHAD CAMPBELL
OPPOSE JOSE MARIA-OLAZABAL
2006 STATISTICS (After Week 4): (-1.75pts)
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts
A strong European challenge is led by fast emerging Henrik Stenson, who finally got a monkey of his back with a victory in Qatar. Importantly, Stenson led all the way and silenced those who doubted his temperament. I wouldn't argue with those who think Stenson is a future Major winner, but at almost half the price this week of the next European contender, I need to see a bit more to take these very cramped odds.
Woods opened his 2006 campaign with a play-off win at Torrey Pines on Sunday, and clearly is in good nick. Five win from his last nine starts suggests that even very short priced bets on Woods can pay, so I couldn't provide an argument against a bet at 11/4 on value grounds. However, I'm still looking elsewhere for pre-tournament bets as there must be every chance a bigger price will be available in-running. And its also important to remember that Torrey Pines is a course where we routinely expect Tiger to dominate, less so in Dubai.
Els has a fantastic record at the Emirates Course, and is tempting at 7/1 but hasn't competed in an event anywhere near this magnitude since last Spring and wasn't particularly impressive last week. Given his outstanding finish to 2005, Goosen's price is surprisingly big. Presumably this is based on a dubious assumption that he won't be 100% for his first outing of the year, but is overlooked as he's never produced his best golf in this part of the world.
So with it hard to particularly favour any one of the leading four more than the others, I'm leaving them all alone and going for three each-way bets instead. Firstly, I simply must perservere with DAVID HOWELL, especially as his odds are a massive over-reaction to two bad weeks. Any profits made from Howell's Hong Kong win have been given back in the meantime, but at 28/1 this could be a chance to move back into the black on a player who remains one to follow. Howell stands -25 for his last eight rounds on this course, and also has happy memories of this event which he won at a different venue 7 years ago.
Sweden's NICLAS FASTH is oozing self-confidence at the moment, convinced his game is better than ever. He did as much as anyone to try and chase down runaway winner Stenson in Qatar, and finished 2nd on his penultimate Emirates Club visit. This feisty competitor showed a couple of times in 2005 that he is well capable of winning tournaments when on song, and must rate worthy of an each-way bet even in this exalted class.
Bookmakers appeared to have over-reacted to a disappointing opening event of the year for PAUL CASEY in Dubai. At the tail-end of the year Casey looked a likely contender in every event so its a surprise to see him available now at 50/1. I expect Paul to score heavily on the par-5s this week, and will be one of the few players capable of keeping up with Woods, Els, Goosen and Stenson on those holes.
Aussie left-hander NICK O'HERN's first event of the year finished well with a couple of decent rounds over the weekend in Qatar and he should have shaken any rust out his game. If Nick reverts to the form he was showing at the end of 2005 then he will certainly rack up another series of low finishes. Unfortunately he also showed in many of those starts that he remains someone to avoid at all costs when in contention and the preferred option is match and spread bets.
The PGA Tour moves on to Scottsdale, Arizona for its long-standing desert event, scene of the loudest and rowdiest crowds. The locals will doubtless be screaming for their hero and defending champion, PHIL MICKELSON. It will not be easy with Vijay Singh, Sergio Garcia in opposition as well as bang-in-form recent winners DAVID TOMS and Chris Dimarco. Lefty hasn't been quite at his brilliant best so far in 2006, as by his own admission he has been shaking off rust from an extended winter break. Nevertheless, he was on the fringes of contention at the Bob Hope and could easily have won at Torrey Pines but for a few three putts and a poor back 9 on Sunday. Scottsdale really plays into the hands of Phil's risk-reward game and he must be the one to beat.
The overall balance of Singh's Scottsdale form is nothing out of the ordinary and he only won this when at his very best, which was not the case in either of the past two weeks. Garcia is clearly hitting the ball magnificently but remains a player to avoid. For once his putting wasn't atrocious at Torrey Pines, but then he throws in another awful final day performance when holding the lead.
Toms makes much more appeal. Time and again this guy has proved he is a winner - there are very few players I would rather back under the pressures of a final day. And at Waialae, Toms showed just how well he has started the year, slaughtering a world class field on a difficult golf course. Its interesting that he had a fortnight's break after that win, and looks likely to be primed for contention. Certainly, three top-11 finishes on his last three visits will have convinced Toms that this is one of his best winning opportunities of the year.
Chris Dimarco has a superb Scottsdale record and finally answered questions about his 'bottle' with a gutsy front-running win in Abu Dhabi a fortnight ago. Dimarco looks a different player since leading the US to victory in last autumn's President Cup and is very reluctantly overlooked, simply on the grounds that all value has gone out of his price now. Another player I expect to go well for speciality bet purposes is the consistent SCOTT VERPLANK, another one stuck with the bottler tag. Alternatively, good recent form may have forced bookies to over-estimate the chances of Chad Campbell and Jose-Maria Olazabal. Scottsdale is quite a quirky course, and neither have ever shown much liking for it so might well be worth opposing.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC
2pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 28/1 (CORALS, SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew NICLAS FASTH @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PAUL CASEY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MATCHES, SPREADS AND 2-BALLS
SUPPORT NICK O'HERN
FBR OPEN
6pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 13/2 (BET365, BETDIRECT, STAN JAMES, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew DAVID TOMS @ 14/1 (BET DIRECT, BLUESQ, STAN JAMES)
MATCHES, SPREADS AND 2-BALLS
SUPPORT SCOTT VERPLANK
OPPOSE CHAD CAMPBELL
OPPOSE JOSE MARIA-OLAZABAL
2006 STATISTICS (After Week 4): (-1.75pts)
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 4:51 PM
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