Rejuvenated Singh the Mercedes bet
Well rested after a lazy Christmas, I'm counting the hours until Sky's coverage of the 2006 golf season starts at Thursday midnight with the Mercedes Championship from the Kapalua Plantation in Hawaii. While the slightly earlier start than usual to the calendar is a bonus for us golf-starved punters, several of the world's top players have deemed it too intrusive of their winter break and withdrawn, most notably Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Retief Goosen. This tournament is reserved for winners on the PGA Tour in 2005 so the field is down to a bare minimum of 28, with Vijay Singh the only member of the world's top 5 and only six from the top 20 in attendance.
Previous form at Kapalua suggests that this course favours long hitters who can handle the usually windy conditions, while the wide open fairways place a higher premium than usual on the second shot. This all tends to favour the best players and make upsets very unlikely. Of the last ten Mercedes champions, only Appleby and Sergio Garcia are non-Major winners. The lack of strength in depth must further enhance the likelihood of World No 30 Stuart Appleby winning this for the third year in succession, but his price is suitably adjusted to 14/1 and represents no sort of value for such an improbable feat.
In such circumstances, the price of 5/1 for VIJAY SINGH deserves at least the raising of an eyebrow. Despite failing to win here in six attempts, the Fijian star has never been lower than 8th and only once out of the top 5 and the absent Woods and Els filled several of the positions ahead of him in many of those years. The downside is that Vijay's form tailed off in the second half of 2005 though he did finish with a couple of top-5s. Alternatively another upside is that this workaholic is the one player in the field that is guaranteed not to be rusty after the break. My guess is that Singh will at the very least trade quite a bit shorter over the weekend so he must be worth a saver.
Jim Furyk also holds some impressive Kapalua form including a victory in 2001, and won the Nedbank in Sun City only a few weeks ago. Like Appleby, though, Furyk's chances have not been missed by bookmakers and his odds of 6/1 make no appeal for such an infrequent winner. Sergio Garcia is also in single figures, and has won here before, but can't be backed at such odds while his putting remains in crisis.
Far better value lies in finding some each-way alternatives. With several rank outsiders in the field of 28, this week's terms of four places at a quarter of the odds should yield some value. US Open champion MICHAEL CAMPBELL continues to be underestimated by the bookies at 18/1 and looks the perfect case in point. A year ago his game was in total crisis but Cambo went from strength to strength after that first Major victory in June, winning the World Matchplay and cementing his place in golf's top division with a series of fine efforts in the highest company. Though hindered by the disadvantage of never having played Kapalua before, Michael looks exactly the type to prosper here and on his last outing at the Target Challenge played three rounds of sublime golf before a last day flop.
Even more obvious each-way value lies with BEN CRANE at 28/1. Crane was a revelation in the second half of 2005 and very much looks one of the Americans to follow in 2006. Interestingly, Crane finished a credible 8th here on his debut here two years ago, when nothing like the top-class performer that he has now become. Low scoring is highly likely so Crane's very hot putter should be a big asset this week.
Finally, at a much bigger price, I'm sticking VAUGHAN TAYLOR in the staking plan at 66/1. Similarly to Crane, Taylor finished eighth on his Kapalua debut with four solid rounds. Also like Crane, he is on my list of players to note for 2006, though still a division below.
For those of us prepared to do the full night-shift over the weekend, there is also a new team matchplay event in Asia starting in the early hours Saturday morning, the Royal Trophy. Two teams of eight represent Europe and Asia, with the format being the usual mixture of foursomes, fourballs and last day singles. There are probably too many of these team events nowadays, and at other stages of the year I'd probably completely ignore this event. But, probably because I'm just desperate for a golf bet after the break, I am going to have a bet on EUROPE here. Though the Asians do have home advantage, they regularly come out second best to the leading Europeans even in this part of the world and the difference in class between the teams is very obvious looking at the world rankings. The only potential handicap is the inclusion of old-timers Nick Faldo and Ian Woosnam, but this is more than compensated by the presence of rising world stars David Howell and Henrik Stenson.
With every player guaranteed three matches, there is less obvious value than usual in the top scorer markets. For an interest, I suggest a couple of small bets on GRAEME MCDOWELL and ARJUN ATWAL. McDowell is another name from my players for 2006 list, and has shown a liking for matchplay in the past, while Atwal has plenty of form on the US Tour that is in another galaxy to most of his team-mates.
Good Luck!
MERCEDES CHAMPIONSHIP
6pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 5/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 18/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew BEN CRANE @ 25/1 (HILLS, VICTOR CHANDLER, SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew VAUGHAN TAYLOR @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
ROYAL TROPHY
7.5pts win EUROPE @ 4/6 (BET365)
1pt win GRAEME MCDOWELL TO BE TOP EUROPEAN SCORER @ 13/2 (STAN JAMES)
1pt win ARJUN ATWAL TO BE TOP ASIAN SCORER @ 7/1 (BLUESQ, SPORTING ODDS)
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts
Previous form at Kapalua suggests that this course favours long hitters who can handle the usually windy conditions, while the wide open fairways place a higher premium than usual on the second shot. This all tends to favour the best players and make upsets very unlikely. Of the last ten Mercedes champions, only Appleby and Sergio Garcia are non-Major winners. The lack of strength in depth must further enhance the likelihood of World No 30 Stuart Appleby winning this for the third year in succession, but his price is suitably adjusted to 14/1 and represents no sort of value for such an improbable feat.
In such circumstances, the price of 5/1 for VIJAY SINGH deserves at least the raising of an eyebrow. Despite failing to win here in six attempts, the Fijian star has never been lower than 8th and only once out of the top 5 and the absent Woods and Els filled several of the positions ahead of him in many of those years. The downside is that Vijay's form tailed off in the second half of 2005 though he did finish with a couple of top-5s. Alternatively another upside is that this workaholic is the one player in the field that is guaranteed not to be rusty after the break. My guess is that Singh will at the very least trade quite a bit shorter over the weekend so he must be worth a saver.
Jim Furyk also holds some impressive Kapalua form including a victory in 2001, and won the Nedbank in Sun City only a few weeks ago. Like Appleby, though, Furyk's chances have not been missed by bookmakers and his odds of 6/1 make no appeal for such an infrequent winner. Sergio Garcia is also in single figures, and has won here before, but can't be backed at such odds while his putting remains in crisis.
Far better value lies in finding some each-way alternatives. With several rank outsiders in the field of 28, this week's terms of four places at a quarter of the odds should yield some value. US Open champion MICHAEL CAMPBELL continues to be underestimated by the bookies at 18/1 and looks the perfect case in point. A year ago his game was in total crisis but Cambo went from strength to strength after that first Major victory in June, winning the World Matchplay and cementing his place in golf's top division with a series of fine efforts in the highest company. Though hindered by the disadvantage of never having played Kapalua before, Michael looks exactly the type to prosper here and on his last outing at the Target Challenge played three rounds of sublime golf before a last day flop.
Even more obvious each-way value lies with BEN CRANE at 28/1. Crane was a revelation in the second half of 2005 and very much looks one of the Americans to follow in 2006. Interestingly, Crane finished a credible 8th here on his debut here two years ago, when nothing like the top-class performer that he has now become. Low scoring is highly likely so Crane's very hot putter should be a big asset this week.
Finally, at a much bigger price, I'm sticking VAUGHAN TAYLOR in the staking plan at 66/1. Similarly to Crane, Taylor finished eighth on his Kapalua debut with four solid rounds. Also like Crane, he is on my list of players to note for 2006, though still a division below.
For those of us prepared to do the full night-shift over the weekend, there is also a new team matchplay event in Asia starting in the early hours Saturday morning, the Royal Trophy. Two teams of eight represent Europe and Asia, with the format being the usual mixture of foursomes, fourballs and last day singles. There are probably too many of these team events nowadays, and at other stages of the year I'd probably completely ignore this event. But, probably because I'm just desperate for a golf bet after the break, I am going to have a bet on EUROPE here. Though the Asians do have home advantage, they regularly come out second best to the leading Europeans even in this part of the world and the difference in class between the teams is very obvious looking at the world rankings. The only potential handicap is the inclusion of old-timers Nick Faldo and Ian Woosnam, but this is more than compensated by the presence of rising world stars David Howell and Henrik Stenson.
With every player guaranteed three matches, there is less obvious value than usual in the top scorer markets. For an interest, I suggest a couple of small bets on GRAEME MCDOWELL and ARJUN ATWAL. McDowell is another name from my players for 2006 list, and has shown a liking for matchplay in the past, while Atwal has plenty of form on the US Tour that is in another galaxy to most of his team-mates.
Good Luck!
MERCEDES CHAMPIONSHIP
6pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 5/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 18/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew BEN CRANE @ 25/1 (HILLS, VICTOR CHANDLER, SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew VAUGHAN TAYLOR @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
ROYAL TROPHY
7.5pts win EUROPE @ 4/6 (BET365)
1pt win GRAEME MCDOWELL TO BE TOP EUROPEAN SCORER @ 13/2 (STAN JAMES)
1pt win ARJUN ATWAL TO BE TOP ASIAN SCORER @ 7/1 (BLUESQ, SPORTING ODDS)
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 6:08 PM
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