Young Aussies can pass Sony test
After last week's PGA Tour curtain raiser invitational event for 2005 winners, the rest of the tour kick off this week with the first regulation tournament of the year. We're still in Hawaii for the Sony Open, but the test at Waialae is very different from the Kapalua Plantation. Whereas the Mercedes was played on extremely wide, exposed fairways with very strong winds as the course's main defence, Waialae is tree-lined with small greens and places a very strong emphasis on accuracy from tee to green though, being Hawaii, wind is still a major factor.
Very much like the Mercedes, this event has been dominated by the leading players in recent years, especially since the course was toughened up in 1999. One player above all others has an outstanding record here, Ernie Els, who has finished 1st, 1st and 2nd since 2003. Thankfully for the opposition the Big Easy has chosen not to interrupt his winter break and misses the event. Without wishing to sound like a lazy favourite backer, this has very much left the way clear for defending champion VIJAY SINGH.
We were very unlucky not to open the year with a winner at Kapalua where Vijay was touched off in a play-off by hat-trick seeking Stuart Appleby. Anyone who watched the final round will have been left in no doubt about the wellbeing of Singh's game. I know its early days, but I'll be surprised if we see a better round in 2006 than his closing 66 in gruelling conditions. It took Vijay a while to get the hang of Waialae before coming good last year, touching off Els and Shigeki Maruyama. 4/1 in a field of 150 is nothing to write home about compared to 5/1 in a field of 28 last week, but the Fijian superstar simply has to enter calculations.
There are several other leading challengers, but all have plenty to prove on this course. Jim Furyk won here 10 years ago but has done nothing since, while I would be astonished if Stuart Appleby repeated the sort of form that he only ever seems to show at Kapalua under these less suitable conditions. Adam Scott has done little on two previous visits. David Toms has shown promise here, but struggled over the weekend and I'm loathe to back anyone who played last week other than Singh as the difficulty of conditions may have affected players' confidence and swings. A better alternative to the favourite is SHIGEKI MARUYAMA, who looked every inch the winner last year before succumbing on the final day. That was his second top-10 at Waialae in three years and the Japanese star clearly possesses the skills required for this test. In particular, Maruyama plays windy conditions better than most which is crucial in Hawaii.
The accurate JERRY KELLY looks likely to add to his formidable bank of form on this course. Despite winning here four years ago, Jerry has never been the strongest of finishers so match and spread bets remain the most sensible format for him. Back in the outright market, I'd rather take a small chance at massive prices on a couple of Australians. When AARON BADDELEY lost in a play-off here in 2003 I don't think there was a single golf expert on the planet who would have predicted that he would still have failed to win three years down the line. Lets not forget this is a guy who won back to back Australian Opens as a teenager so clearly he possesses the mental skills needed for victory. In fact, I suspect overconfidence has been more of a problem as he was surrounded by a publicity machine immediately after the first of those victories. The talent hasn't gone away and there have been glimpses of form since, and last time out Aaron finished an excellent 5th in another Aussie Open. I'm certain he will win at some stage, and at 100/1 its worth chancing that this is the week.
Baddeley's compatriot MATTHEW GOGGIN makes his first start as a PGA Tour cardholder and is my final selection at a whopping 150/1. Apart from gaining that card, the clearest sign that this is a player on the up was Matthew's vastly improved form in Australia in December. In the past, he'd shown plenty of promise on the Nationwide Tour without producing the goods on the tougher courses at home. Tying with Baddeley in his national Open and following up with the runners up slot to an inspired Robert Allenby the following week represented a career peak. Having produced form on similarly tricky, windy courses where accuracy was at a premium, Goggin makes plenty of appeal at the odds.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
4pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 4/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew SHIGEKI MARUYAMA @ 40/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BETDIRECT, TOTE, BETFRED)0.5pts ew AARON BADDELEY @ 100/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BETDIRECT, BLUESQ, BETFRED)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 250/1 WITH TOTE!)
2006 STATISTICS (After Week 1): +7.75pts
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts
Very much like the Mercedes, this event has been dominated by the leading players in recent years, especially since the course was toughened up in 1999. One player above all others has an outstanding record here, Ernie Els, who has finished 1st, 1st and 2nd since 2003. Thankfully for the opposition the Big Easy has chosen not to interrupt his winter break and misses the event. Without wishing to sound like a lazy favourite backer, this has very much left the way clear for defending champion VIJAY SINGH.
We were very unlucky not to open the year with a winner at Kapalua where Vijay was touched off in a play-off by hat-trick seeking Stuart Appleby. Anyone who watched the final round will have been left in no doubt about the wellbeing of Singh's game. I know its early days, but I'll be surprised if we see a better round in 2006 than his closing 66 in gruelling conditions. It took Vijay a while to get the hang of Waialae before coming good last year, touching off Els and Shigeki Maruyama. 4/1 in a field of 150 is nothing to write home about compared to 5/1 in a field of 28 last week, but the Fijian superstar simply has to enter calculations.
There are several other leading challengers, but all have plenty to prove on this course. Jim Furyk won here 10 years ago but has done nothing since, while I would be astonished if Stuart Appleby repeated the sort of form that he only ever seems to show at Kapalua under these less suitable conditions. Adam Scott has done little on two previous visits. David Toms has shown promise here, but struggled over the weekend and I'm loathe to back anyone who played last week other than Singh as the difficulty of conditions may have affected players' confidence and swings. A better alternative to the favourite is SHIGEKI MARUYAMA, who looked every inch the winner last year before succumbing on the final day. That was his second top-10 at Waialae in three years and the Japanese star clearly possesses the skills required for this test. In particular, Maruyama plays windy conditions better than most which is crucial in Hawaii.
The accurate JERRY KELLY looks likely to add to his formidable bank of form on this course. Despite winning here four years ago, Jerry has never been the strongest of finishers so match and spread bets remain the most sensible format for him. Back in the outright market, I'd rather take a small chance at massive prices on a couple of Australians. When AARON BADDELEY lost in a play-off here in 2003 I don't think there was a single golf expert on the planet who would have predicted that he would still have failed to win three years down the line. Lets not forget this is a guy who won back to back Australian Opens as a teenager so clearly he possesses the mental skills needed for victory. In fact, I suspect overconfidence has been more of a problem as he was surrounded by a publicity machine immediately after the first of those victories. The talent hasn't gone away and there have been glimpses of form since, and last time out Aaron finished an excellent 5th in another Aussie Open. I'm certain he will win at some stage, and at 100/1 its worth chancing that this is the week.
Baddeley's compatriot MATTHEW GOGGIN makes his first start as a PGA Tour cardholder and is my final selection at a whopping 150/1. Apart from gaining that card, the clearest sign that this is a player on the up was Matthew's vastly improved form in Australia in December. In the past, he'd shown plenty of promise on the Nationwide Tour without producing the goods on the tougher courses at home. Tying with Baddeley in his national Open and following up with the runners up slot to an inspired Robert Allenby the following week represented a career peak. Having produced form on similarly tricky, windy courses where accuracy was at a premium, Goggin makes plenty of appeal at the odds.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
4pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 4/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew SHIGEKI MARUYAMA @ 40/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BETDIRECT, TOTE, BETFRED)0.5pts ew AARON BADDELEY @ 100/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BETDIRECT, BLUESQ, BETFRED)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 250/1 WITH TOTE!)
2006 STATISTICS (After Week 1): +7.75pts
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:57 PM
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