Tiger set to dominate again at Torrey Pines
Fresh from their winter breaks, the two leading attractions in world golf lead the cast for the best golfing week so far of 2006. Tiger Woods opens up with a title defence in the States but first of all, Ernie Els will attempt to defend a title of his own at the Qatar Masters, which kicks off in the early hours of Thursday morning.
Last year Els produced a magnificent final day charge, coming from five shots off the pace to land his second Middle East win in a fortnight, but previously this course has proved very hard to make up ground on. Of even greater importance is the fact that, due to notorious afternoon winds, early starters have usually enjoyed a significant advantage over the years here. For the latter reason I'm not backing Els from the outset as he has a late R1 tee-time, but he is bound to be there or thereabouts so keep an eye on his odds in-running. Challenging Ernie for favouritism is Vijay Singh, who does enjoy an early start. Having backed Vijay for the first three weeks of 2006 without success it would be typical if the Fijian delivers now, but I can't justify odds of 6/1 with Ernie also in the field, along with several top Europeans. Another factor that could count against Vijay is the lightning fast greens.
So in our search for early-starters at double figure odds, all paths lead to a pair of Englishmen, DAVID HOWELL and IAN POULTER. I make no apologies for sticking with ace putter Howell despite his missed cut last week. After his sensational form at the tail-end of 2005, its only fair to put that blip down to rustiness. At Doha, Howell has three consecutive top-10s to his name, and his price of 18/1 looks an each-way steal. As I've said countless times in recent weeks, Howell is moving into the game's elite fast, and must be perservered with until the bookmakers accept the fact.
2005 was the first in which Poulter finished without a victory, but don't expect that to continue for long either. Closing with three sub-70 rounds at the weekend, Ian very much took the eye as a likely winner over the next few weeks. Despite a missed cut on his most recent Doha appearance, 11th on his only previous visit confirms that he likes it here.
Another player likely to go well here is PAUL MCGINLEY, who has an early start and has bulit up a bank of course form over the years. However, despite the career highlight of winning the Volvo Masters recently, I still can't find the will to back a player in the outright market who has let himself down so many times when in contention, including on this course. It makes much more sense to side with the Irishman in speciality bets. Similarly, massive hitting RICARDO GONZALEZ has four consecutive top-20s here and played really well at Abu Dhabi last week, but his odds of 50/1 are plenty short enough for somebody who's never looked top class. Again, match bets and spreads look a better option for the Argentinian.
The US PGA Tour moves on to the regular fixture at Torrey Pines, the BUICK INVITATIONAL. Played on two courses, its worth remembering that the South course is considerably harder than the North, as it is being prepared for the 2008 US Open. Three out of four rounds are played on the South course, for which the word 'beast' is not an unfair description - especially when the weather is bad. Quality, long, accurate play from tee to green is essential.
Defending champion TIGER WOODS makes his seasonal debut and will take the world of beating once again. In his last eight Torrey Pines visits, Woods has managed three wins and only once was out of the top-5. Even on that occasion in 2004, Tiger showed just how well suited he is to the course by finishing 10th despite playing what was, by his standards, atrocious golf. The only question mark is that we are taking his preparation on trust, as he hasn't played competitive golf for over a month. But Tiger being the ultra competitive animal that he is, and with stats like that on offer, 3/1 looks a very reasonable price - even though he'll probably drift to a bigger price in-running at some stage.
The dangers to Tiger are obvious, but unappealing. Phil Mickelson also loves it here, but has been put in his place by Tiger in recent runnings of this and wasn't particularly impressive at the weekend. Sergio Garcia should, with his long game, love it here but his putting goes from awful to simply embarrassing. Chad Campbell is in the form of his life, but hardly represents value at 20/1 after two consecutive weekends in contention. The one rival with very obvious claims is LUKE DONALD, on his seasonal debut. His record here over the past three years is 7th, 2nd and 2nd. This impressive set of figures, along with his sole win of 2005 coming in the final event, means that bookies are taking no chances on the young Englishman. At 20/1 best price, we're better off sticking to the speciality markets with Luke, particularly in match and spread bets against his friend Garcia. In stark contrast, Stuart Appleby has started the season brilliantly but is bound to be over-estimated in speciality markets as this is really not his type of course, as a poor course record demonstrates.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
QATAR MASTERS
3pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 18/1 WITH CORALS)
1pt ew IAN POULTER @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS
SUPPORT PAUL MCGINLEY
SUPPORT RICARDO GONZALEZ
BUICK INVITATIONAL
10pts win TIGER WOODS @ 11/4 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 3/1 WITH VICTOR CHANDLER)
MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS
SUPPORT LUKE DONALD
OPPOSE STUART APPLEBY
2006 STATISTICS (After Week 3) (-21.25pts)
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts
Last year Els produced a magnificent final day charge, coming from five shots off the pace to land his second Middle East win in a fortnight, but previously this course has proved very hard to make up ground on. Of even greater importance is the fact that, due to notorious afternoon winds, early starters have usually enjoyed a significant advantage over the years here. For the latter reason I'm not backing Els from the outset as he has a late R1 tee-time, but he is bound to be there or thereabouts so keep an eye on his odds in-running. Challenging Ernie for favouritism is Vijay Singh, who does enjoy an early start. Having backed Vijay for the first three weeks of 2006 without success it would be typical if the Fijian delivers now, but I can't justify odds of 6/1 with Ernie also in the field, along with several top Europeans. Another factor that could count against Vijay is the lightning fast greens.
So in our search for early-starters at double figure odds, all paths lead to a pair of Englishmen, DAVID HOWELL and IAN POULTER. I make no apologies for sticking with ace putter Howell despite his missed cut last week. After his sensational form at the tail-end of 2005, its only fair to put that blip down to rustiness. At Doha, Howell has three consecutive top-10s to his name, and his price of 18/1 looks an each-way steal. As I've said countless times in recent weeks, Howell is moving into the game's elite fast, and must be perservered with until the bookmakers accept the fact.
2005 was the first in which Poulter finished without a victory, but don't expect that to continue for long either. Closing with three sub-70 rounds at the weekend, Ian very much took the eye as a likely winner over the next few weeks. Despite a missed cut on his most recent Doha appearance, 11th on his only previous visit confirms that he likes it here.
Another player likely to go well here is PAUL MCGINLEY, who has an early start and has bulit up a bank of course form over the years. However, despite the career highlight of winning the Volvo Masters recently, I still can't find the will to back a player in the outright market who has let himself down so many times when in contention, including on this course. It makes much more sense to side with the Irishman in speciality bets. Similarly, massive hitting RICARDO GONZALEZ has four consecutive top-20s here and played really well at Abu Dhabi last week, but his odds of 50/1 are plenty short enough for somebody who's never looked top class. Again, match bets and spreads look a better option for the Argentinian.
The US PGA Tour moves on to the regular fixture at Torrey Pines, the BUICK INVITATIONAL. Played on two courses, its worth remembering that the South course is considerably harder than the North, as it is being prepared for the 2008 US Open. Three out of four rounds are played on the South course, for which the word 'beast' is not an unfair description - especially when the weather is bad. Quality, long, accurate play from tee to green is essential.
Defending champion TIGER WOODS makes his seasonal debut and will take the world of beating once again. In his last eight Torrey Pines visits, Woods has managed three wins and only once was out of the top-5. Even on that occasion in 2004, Tiger showed just how well suited he is to the course by finishing 10th despite playing what was, by his standards, atrocious golf. The only question mark is that we are taking his preparation on trust, as he hasn't played competitive golf for over a month. But Tiger being the ultra competitive animal that he is, and with stats like that on offer, 3/1 looks a very reasonable price - even though he'll probably drift to a bigger price in-running at some stage.
The dangers to Tiger are obvious, but unappealing. Phil Mickelson also loves it here, but has been put in his place by Tiger in recent runnings of this and wasn't particularly impressive at the weekend. Sergio Garcia should, with his long game, love it here but his putting goes from awful to simply embarrassing. Chad Campbell is in the form of his life, but hardly represents value at 20/1 after two consecutive weekends in contention. The one rival with very obvious claims is LUKE DONALD, on his seasonal debut. His record here over the past three years is 7th, 2nd and 2nd. This impressive set of figures, along with his sole win of 2005 coming in the final event, means that bookies are taking no chances on the young Englishman. At 20/1 best price, we're better off sticking to the speciality markets with Luke, particularly in match and spread bets against his friend Garcia. In stark contrast, Stuart Appleby has started the season brilliantly but is bound to be over-estimated in speciality markets as this is really not his type of course, as a poor course record demonstrates.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
QATAR MASTERS
3pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 18/1 WITH CORALS)
1pt ew IAN POULTER @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS
SUPPORT PAUL MCGINLEY
SUPPORT RICARDO GONZALEZ
BUICK INVITATIONAL
10pts win TIGER WOODS @ 11/4 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 3/1 WITH VICTOR CHANDLER)
MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS
SUPPORT LUKE DONALD
OPPOSE STUART APPLEBY
2006 STATISTICS (After Week 3) (-21.25pts)
2005 STATISTICS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 6:13 PM
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