Masters Snooker Preview
Starting with next week's Masters event at Wembley, long suffering snooker fans can now look forward to our only decent spell of the year as there are several tournaments in the run-up to April's World Championship. The Masters is an invitational event for the World's top-16, with two wild card entries. I'm sure if the tournament organisers could have foreseen the result of December's UK Championship, Chinese prodigy Ding Junhui would have been granted one of those wildcards but while Ding is at Prestatyn this week trying to qualify for the big one in April, the alternative wild card entries are more than capable of making an impact. Ian McCulloch, a World semi-finalist in 2005, and in-form Stuart Bingham make up the field.
But shocks are not the usual order of the day at Wembley, and no doubt Ronnie O'Sullivan's legion of fans will be steaming into the 9/4 about the Londoner successfully defending his title. Don't be lured in. Of course the Rocket is always capable of winning, but its hard to think of a contestant in any sport who consistently represents worse value for several reasons. Firstly, and most obviously, the guy is a headcase. Since suffering a virtual nervous breakdown when in a seemingly unassailable position against Peter Ebdon at Sheffield, we've heard all the usual tiresome complaints about how sick he is of the game. In three events this year he's yet to win, beaten by the vastly inferior Joe Swail and Mark King, while a back to form JOHN HIGGINS trounced him in the Grand Prix final. Secondly, even at his best he's never been value. For a player whom the betting constantly rates as different class to the rest, his win ratio has never been impressive. Just 2 World Championships in 13 attempts tells its own story, especially when compared to the 13 won by his two predecessors at the game's summit, Steve Davis and Stephen Hendry. Thirdly, the draw is by no means straightforward. McCulloch is no pushover in the first round, and then he will face either Bingham or Sheffield nemesis Ebdon. Bingham has been in excellent form this year and would be a worthy recruit to the top 16, but Ebdon would be the tougher opponent. One of the last remaining old-style grinders, Ebdon has spooked Ronnie on more than one occasion during their careers by slowing the game down and will be relishing the contest.
Ronnie's short price, as always, means there is plenty of value elsewhere. The standout bet here for me is STEPHEN MAGUIRE at 9/1. 'On Fire' Maguire is available a double figures purely because his 2005-2006 season has yet to live up to its high expectations. I expected him to be the man to beat this season, but in the Premier League and the opening two ranking events his form was indeed very disappointing and the Glaswegian looked like he was struggling to cope with his World No 3 tag. But at York last month in the first 'Major' event of the year, he looked on his way back when trouncing Swail and then taking an 8-6 lead against Steve Davis. What followed was one of the most impressive comebacks in recent years, as the Nugget turned the clock back 20 years to win the last 4 frames. In the words of Maguire, "He played like God". That match was arguably the best of the competition and in my view, Maguire lost nothing. I'm a strong believer that, at his best, Maguire is the best player in the world. When in form and in the balls, he simply doesn't miss and is the best breakbuilder since Hendry at his peak. In three outings against Ronnie last year (in arguably O'Sullivan's best year), Maguire won 2 comfortably by scorelines of 6-1 and 9-6 before their memorable Sheffield clash. There, the Scot led 9-7 and needed only three straightforward pots before missing a sitter, and giving Ronnie the chance for a spectacular comeback. Sooner or later, Maguire will win again and double figure quotes will be a thing of the past. At the very least he looks a good trade, as first round opponent Stephen Lee has done nothing for ages.
In the bottom half of the draw, I fancy JOHN HIGGINS to emerge. The Wizard of Wishaw has been frustratingly inconsistent in recent years, struggling for concentration at key times though he has always looked like he retained his ability. But when winning the Grand Prix in October, he looked right back to his best, trouncing O'Sullivan in the final. Again, the draw has been kind with Jimmy White his first round opponent. You never know with Jimmy at Wembley and his fanatical support, but the Whirlwind hasn't looked up to the task lately and I expect Higgins to brush him aside. 13/2 for Higgins will probably look very big after that match.
Higgins will probably face either Stephen Hendry or MARK WILLIAMS in the semi-finals, should he reach that far. Williams' decline in recent years has been frankly unbelievable as the dual World Champ has slipped from World No 1 to provisionally No 25. The reason for backing him here is that his first round opponent is Paul Hunter, who is suffering from cancer and can't be expected to put up any sort of showing. In a potential quarter final against Hendry, Williams would be the outsider but Hendry's own form is terribly inconsistent and I could see the Welshman turning him over. Williams played much better at York last month before losing to Hendry to a scoreline that flattered the Scot a little. Throughout their careers in the many great matches between these two friends, Williams has often had the edge. Again at the very least he should trade much shorter than the 14/1 on offer.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
7pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 9/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BLUESQ, STAN JAMES)
5pts win JOHN HIGGINS @ 13/2 (SPORTING ODDS)
3pts win MARK WILLIAMS @ 14/1 (LAY BACK AT LESS THAN 5/1) (HILLS, TOTE)
But shocks are not the usual order of the day at Wembley, and no doubt Ronnie O'Sullivan's legion of fans will be steaming into the 9/4 about the Londoner successfully defending his title. Don't be lured in. Of course the Rocket is always capable of winning, but its hard to think of a contestant in any sport who consistently represents worse value for several reasons. Firstly, and most obviously, the guy is a headcase. Since suffering a virtual nervous breakdown when in a seemingly unassailable position against Peter Ebdon at Sheffield, we've heard all the usual tiresome complaints about how sick he is of the game. In three events this year he's yet to win, beaten by the vastly inferior Joe Swail and Mark King, while a back to form JOHN HIGGINS trounced him in the Grand Prix final. Secondly, even at his best he's never been value. For a player whom the betting constantly rates as different class to the rest, his win ratio has never been impressive. Just 2 World Championships in 13 attempts tells its own story, especially when compared to the 13 won by his two predecessors at the game's summit, Steve Davis and Stephen Hendry. Thirdly, the draw is by no means straightforward. McCulloch is no pushover in the first round, and then he will face either Bingham or Sheffield nemesis Ebdon. Bingham has been in excellent form this year and would be a worthy recruit to the top 16, but Ebdon would be the tougher opponent. One of the last remaining old-style grinders, Ebdon has spooked Ronnie on more than one occasion during their careers by slowing the game down and will be relishing the contest.
Ronnie's short price, as always, means there is plenty of value elsewhere. The standout bet here for me is STEPHEN MAGUIRE at 9/1. 'On Fire' Maguire is available a double figures purely because his 2005-2006 season has yet to live up to its high expectations. I expected him to be the man to beat this season, but in the Premier League and the opening two ranking events his form was indeed very disappointing and the Glaswegian looked like he was struggling to cope with his World No 3 tag. But at York last month in the first 'Major' event of the year, he looked on his way back when trouncing Swail and then taking an 8-6 lead against Steve Davis. What followed was one of the most impressive comebacks in recent years, as the Nugget turned the clock back 20 years to win the last 4 frames. In the words of Maguire, "He played like God". That match was arguably the best of the competition and in my view, Maguire lost nothing. I'm a strong believer that, at his best, Maguire is the best player in the world. When in form and in the balls, he simply doesn't miss and is the best breakbuilder since Hendry at his peak. In three outings against Ronnie last year (in arguably O'Sullivan's best year), Maguire won 2 comfortably by scorelines of 6-1 and 9-6 before their memorable Sheffield clash. There, the Scot led 9-7 and needed only three straightforward pots before missing a sitter, and giving Ronnie the chance for a spectacular comeback. Sooner or later, Maguire will win again and double figure quotes will be a thing of the past. At the very least he looks a good trade, as first round opponent Stephen Lee has done nothing for ages.
In the bottom half of the draw, I fancy JOHN HIGGINS to emerge. The Wizard of Wishaw has been frustratingly inconsistent in recent years, struggling for concentration at key times though he has always looked like he retained his ability. But when winning the Grand Prix in October, he looked right back to his best, trouncing O'Sullivan in the final. Again, the draw has been kind with Jimmy White his first round opponent. You never know with Jimmy at Wembley and his fanatical support, but the Whirlwind hasn't looked up to the task lately and I expect Higgins to brush him aside. 13/2 for Higgins will probably look very big after that match.
Higgins will probably face either Stephen Hendry or MARK WILLIAMS in the semi-finals, should he reach that far. Williams' decline in recent years has been frankly unbelievable as the dual World Champ has slipped from World No 1 to provisionally No 25. The reason for backing him here is that his first round opponent is Paul Hunter, who is suffering from cancer and can't be expected to put up any sort of showing. In a potential quarter final against Hendry, Williams would be the outsider but Hendry's own form is terribly inconsistent and I could see the Welshman turning him over. Williams played much better at York last month before losing to Hendry to a scoreline that flattered the Scot a little. Throughout their careers in the many great matches between these two friends, Williams has often had the edge. Again at the very least he should trade much shorter than the 14/1 on offer.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
7pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 9/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BLUESQ, STAN JAMES)
5pts win JOHN HIGGINS @ 13/2 (SPORTING ODDS)
3pts win MARK WILLIAMS @ 14/1 (LAY BACK AT LESS THAN 5/1) (HILLS, TOTE)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 7:43 AM
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