Ogilvy can master Harbour Town Links
Firstly, I must apologise for this message being sent out a day later than usual. After a marathon trading day on Sunday after the Masters suffered rain delays, and with 17 days of hardcore snooker trading ahead, I needed a couple of days off. Inevitably, this does mean I've missed the best prices about some of the main contenders.
There are two tournaments this week, yet another overnight job from China and the regular PGA Tour fixture at Harbour Town Links, the Heritage Classic. As you can probably tell, I'm not exactly brimming with enthusiasm about the Volvo China Open, which is played on a brand new Nick Faldo designed course so we have no previous form to work from. My strategy of backing the favourites against a weak field in such events has had no luck at all recently, with NICK DOUGHERTY and David Howell blowing winning positions. This week's class acts are Dougherty, HENRIK STENSON and Paul Casey.
With no course form, I'm reliant on others like the Racing Post's Jeremy Chapman to describe the course characteristics. He thinks it will be a thinking man's golf course and one might presume that Faldo would design such a course. From that perspective, it doesn't seem particularly like the sort of course that a huge-hitting birdie machine like Casey would excel at, but he still commands enormous respect due to a terrific record in this part of the world. Stenson has to bounce back from two missed cuts amongst immeasurably superior fields at the Masters and Bellsouth Classic, but his form over the last year is so superior to anyone else in the field that he just has to enter calculations as at least a saver. At the best price of three, Dougherty has to be backed again as surely another win is around the corner. Nick may also benefit from missing the Masters last week, so there's no reason why he won't continue his excellent recent form.
Chapman also has it right, I think, about ALEX CEJKA, but because he has tipped him I'm afraid the price has shortened from 50/1 to 40/1. No matter, the German is always a threat at this level and still looks a cracking each-way bet.
In contrast, the American event is an absolute cracker - one of the few occasions on the PGA Tour where they play a links course. Naturally, this suits those who have refined the art of links golf while simultaneously meaning we can write off several players.
No better example of the importance of course form is DAVIS LOVE, whose record at Harbour Town is nothing short of amazing. DL3 has won this event five time, with four top-5 finishes and three other top-10s! Many pundits question whether Love is a player in terminal decline, but I'm not convinced. True, he's not such an obvious Major contender anymore, but he is still capable of world class golf. Less than 2 months ago, Love won 5 matches before succumbing in the World Matchplay final. 3 weeks ago, he opened up with a brilliant 65 at Sawgrass, only to miss the cut in shocking style. I place that disaster down to a disappointing temperamental reaction on a tough day rather than any evidence of him suddenly being a bad golfer, so it doesn't deter me from a bet back on his favourite course, where I'm sure Davis is determined to add to that awesome record.
Love's conquerer that day, GEOFF OGILVY, is surprisingly still available at 28/1 as it seems nobody else has tipped him. I've been going on about Ogilvy for about 5 years now without ever really profitting from his success but perhaps this is the week. Lets look at Ogilvy's form in the last year. As well as the career highlight WGC victory, he won his first PGA Tour event last summer, and his last three Major performances have been 5th at the British Open, 6th at the USPGA and another rock solid 16th at Augusta at the weekend. Straight after the win at La Costa, Geoff followed up with 2nd place at the Honda Classic. As an Aussie, he's comfortable with this sort of links golf and nearly won this event two years ago when a far less confident player than now.
Several other players look worth opposing after the Masters. Ernie Els is favourite, and is the best links player of them all, but struggled badly on Sunday and is apparently still suffering some negative reaction from the knee injury. Clearly, he can't be backed with confidence so soon after playing 27 holes badly on the same day. Chad Campbell has little form here, and might well suffer an immediate reaction to four days right in contention at Augusta. Stewart Cink has plenty of form here and just had his best weekend in ages, but his price is ridiculously short on all other recent form. Jose Maria Olazabal has now been right in the thick of it for three consecutive weeks and may need a rest.
Then there are players who must be fancied on this course but are such rare winners that we're better off backing them in speciality bets. Nick O'Hern and Scott Verplank fit this definition. Bay Hill winner Rod Pampling is also in fine form, but his price is nothing to get excited about. Under the circumstances, the man to beat this week is probably JIM FURYK. He has exactly the right profile of a Heritage winner, and seems to be getting better with every year, finishing second last year without ever threatening to win. Furyk must rate an each-way saver.
Finally, this looks a great opportunity for JUSTIN ROSE to finally land his first PGA Tour victory. A cracking links player famous for his exploits in the British Open as an amateur, Rose finished 7th on his course debut two years ago. 8th place three starts ago at Bay Hill was a fine effort, so he can be forgiven two missed cuts at Sawgrass and Sugarloaf since.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
VOLVO CHINA OPEN
3pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 14/1 (BETDIRECT, LADBROKES, SKYBET)
4pts win HENRIK STENSON @ 15/2 (SKYBET)
1pt ew ALEX CEJKA @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
VERIZON HERITAGE CLASSIC
3pts ew GEOFF OGILVY @ 28/1 (STAN JAMES, BETFRED)
2pts ew DAVIS LOVE @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew JIM FURYK @ 14/1 (TOTE)
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-84pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
There are two tournaments this week, yet another overnight job from China and the regular PGA Tour fixture at Harbour Town Links, the Heritage Classic. As you can probably tell, I'm not exactly brimming with enthusiasm about the Volvo China Open, which is played on a brand new Nick Faldo designed course so we have no previous form to work from. My strategy of backing the favourites against a weak field in such events has had no luck at all recently, with NICK DOUGHERTY and David Howell blowing winning positions. This week's class acts are Dougherty, HENRIK STENSON and Paul Casey.
With no course form, I'm reliant on others like the Racing Post's Jeremy Chapman to describe the course characteristics. He thinks it will be a thinking man's golf course and one might presume that Faldo would design such a course. From that perspective, it doesn't seem particularly like the sort of course that a huge-hitting birdie machine like Casey would excel at, but he still commands enormous respect due to a terrific record in this part of the world. Stenson has to bounce back from two missed cuts amongst immeasurably superior fields at the Masters and Bellsouth Classic, but his form over the last year is so superior to anyone else in the field that he just has to enter calculations as at least a saver. At the best price of three, Dougherty has to be backed again as surely another win is around the corner. Nick may also benefit from missing the Masters last week, so there's no reason why he won't continue his excellent recent form.
Chapman also has it right, I think, about ALEX CEJKA, but because he has tipped him I'm afraid the price has shortened from 50/1 to 40/1. No matter, the German is always a threat at this level and still looks a cracking each-way bet.
In contrast, the American event is an absolute cracker - one of the few occasions on the PGA Tour where they play a links course. Naturally, this suits those who have refined the art of links golf while simultaneously meaning we can write off several players.
No better example of the importance of course form is DAVIS LOVE, whose record at Harbour Town is nothing short of amazing. DL3 has won this event five time, with four top-5 finishes and three other top-10s! Many pundits question whether Love is a player in terminal decline, but I'm not convinced. True, he's not such an obvious Major contender anymore, but he is still capable of world class golf. Less than 2 months ago, Love won 5 matches before succumbing in the World Matchplay final. 3 weeks ago, he opened up with a brilliant 65 at Sawgrass, only to miss the cut in shocking style. I place that disaster down to a disappointing temperamental reaction on a tough day rather than any evidence of him suddenly being a bad golfer, so it doesn't deter me from a bet back on his favourite course, where I'm sure Davis is determined to add to that awesome record.
Love's conquerer that day, GEOFF OGILVY, is surprisingly still available at 28/1 as it seems nobody else has tipped him. I've been going on about Ogilvy for about 5 years now without ever really profitting from his success but perhaps this is the week. Lets look at Ogilvy's form in the last year. As well as the career highlight WGC victory, he won his first PGA Tour event last summer, and his last three Major performances have been 5th at the British Open, 6th at the USPGA and another rock solid 16th at Augusta at the weekend. Straight after the win at La Costa, Geoff followed up with 2nd place at the Honda Classic. As an Aussie, he's comfortable with this sort of links golf and nearly won this event two years ago when a far less confident player than now.
Several other players look worth opposing after the Masters. Ernie Els is favourite, and is the best links player of them all, but struggled badly on Sunday and is apparently still suffering some negative reaction from the knee injury. Clearly, he can't be backed with confidence so soon after playing 27 holes badly on the same day. Chad Campbell has little form here, and might well suffer an immediate reaction to four days right in contention at Augusta. Stewart Cink has plenty of form here and just had his best weekend in ages, but his price is ridiculously short on all other recent form. Jose Maria Olazabal has now been right in the thick of it for three consecutive weeks and may need a rest.
Then there are players who must be fancied on this course but are such rare winners that we're better off backing them in speciality bets. Nick O'Hern and Scott Verplank fit this definition. Bay Hill winner Rod Pampling is also in fine form, but his price is nothing to get excited about. Under the circumstances, the man to beat this week is probably JIM FURYK. He has exactly the right profile of a Heritage winner, and seems to be getting better with every year, finishing second last year without ever threatening to win. Furyk must rate an each-way saver.
Finally, this looks a great opportunity for JUSTIN ROSE to finally land his first PGA Tour victory. A cracking links player famous for his exploits in the British Open as an amateur, Rose finished 7th on his course debut two years ago. 8th place three starts ago at Bay Hill was a fine effort, so he can be forgiven two missed cuts at Sawgrass and Sugarloaf since.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
VOLVO CHINA OPEN
3pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 14/1 (BETDIRECT, LADBROKES, SKYBET)
4pts win HENRIK STENSON @ 15/2 (SKYBET)
1pt ew ALEX CEJKA @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
VERIZON HERITAGE CLASSIC
3pts ew GEOFF OGILVY @ 28/1 (STAN JAMES, BETFRED)
2pts ew DAVIS LOVE @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew JIM FURYK @ 14/1 (TOTE)
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-84pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 6:45 AM
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