Stick with Singh at new Houston venue
Guesswork is once again the order of the day with another brand new course on show for the Shell Houston Open. David Toms was a consultant involved in its design but its far from clear he's done himself any favours with the course measuring a mammoth 7457 yards. Driving distance and greens in regulations look like the important stats, as there are plenty of hazards around. Everything therefore seems to favour clear market leader VIJAY SINGH, who bids for his fourth win in the last five runnings of the event.
Despite remaining a model of consistency, and being seen to best advantage on tough courses, 9/2 does look rather short at first for a player who hasn't won yet this year but looking down the field its hard to see who's going to beat him. Toms and Mike Weir don't look long enough off the tee, Irish raiders Padraig Harrington and Darren Clarke haven't shown nearly enough to warrant support in the States. Bearing in mind his extra motivation, and the fact that even on bad weeks in stronger company Vijay is clear odds-on to make the top-10, the Fijian has to be included in the staking plan, though perhaps the best value is in finding outsiders whose place terms are more than double his win odds.
It was a timely reminder of the strength in depth of the PGA Tour that a serious long-term prospect Aaron Baddeley could win his maiden event at huge odds, being universally overlooked by tipsters on a course that in hindsight played right to his strengths. Besides Singh, I suspect the most likely winner will be one of the many up and coming youngsters of Tour newcomers in opposition. Consistent Lucas Glover caught my attention but his odds are far too short for someone who, though clearly decent, doesn't strike me as a future Major winner. Monster hitting Bubba Watson could come into it if he can find enough fairways but for me the best prospect of the lot is Colombian CAMILIO VILLEGAS. This guy had looked a serious prospect on the Nationwide Tour and in the odd event in Australasia, but nobody expected him to make such a quick impact at the highest level. To come 3rd in the TPC at Sawgrass is quite a feat for a rookie, but I was even more impressed by his showing as runner-up to Tiger at Doral. On a similarly long course, Villegas traded blows with the world's greatest on equal terms and most importantly, never looked like shirking under pressure.
Mansfield's GREG OWEN has nowhere near the long-term potential of Villegas, but he has taken to the PGA Tour like a duck to water and warrants respect on tough courses. During an average career in Europe, Owen was always a class act from tee to green, and his stats in America confirm nothing has changed. 4 of his last 5 starts over here have been rock-solid efforts, so he must have each-way chances amongst a slightly weaker field on a course that suits.
The course being used for this week's BMW Asian Open in Thailand is also a long one, and previous history here suggests the Europeans will dominate. There was a considerably stronger European contingent set to play here, until Luke Donald and David Howell pulled out. Of those remaining, although I'm sure there will be a couple of big-priced players on the leaderboard, I've narrowed the likely winner down to 7. Of those 7, Henrik Stenson and Miguel-Angel Jiminez are left out on the basis of their price. Jiminez won here in 2004 and played well at Augusta, but all of this is factored into his price. 12/1 about Stenson in such company could look absolutely huge in a few months if the talented Swede gets back on track, but he's now put in three poor shows in succession.
There's no doubt in my mind who the best value is, England's PAUL CASEY. Ignore a poor effort here last year as his game was in turmoil, because this winter in Asia he has been by far the most consistent player with 1 win and 3 top-10s from five starts. Casey was right in the hunt again on Sunday until a poorly timed water visit on the back 9. He will relish the length of the course and could do some serious damage on the par-5s. Very similar comments apply to NICK DOUGHERTY, whose price is surprisingly big at 22/1. Certainly he hasn't looked half the player of Jiminez in recent months, though its clear he does owe me a few quid as I've probably tipped him a dozen times in the last year. With golf betting, you have to remain loyal when you think a player is a winner waiting to happen as the rewards will come eventually, and at nice odds.
These two make up half the team of IG's English Hotshots, which looks a very cheap buy at 34. The other two, David Lynn and Simon Dyson, both have claims as long as they can overcome psycholigical demons. Lynn from a very poor finish when primed to win at the weekend, and Dyson from this venue 2 years ago when he blew a six-shot lead on the final day. Otherwise, there's no reason to suggest they can't at least help towards getting the cut bonus, with Dougherty and Casey doing the main scoring.
For my other two outright selections, I'm choosing mainland European players. THOMAS BJORN is always a threat in this part of the world. True, you never know if this fragile character is about to self-implode but Bjorn is world-class on his day and oozes confidence in Asia. Recent form is better than it first appears from form figures too. He finished with a cracking 69 at Augusta to finish 32nd, with only Jiminez from this field ahead of him, and prior to that had been in contention at Sawgrass for the first two days. Finally, RAPHAEL JACQUELIN looks primed for a big week after working off some rust in his game with a solid down the field effort in China. Jacquelin is another who always fancies his chances in these co-sanctioned Asian events, and must be considered at 40/1.
BMW ASIAN OPEN
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 14/1 (BLUESQ, CORALS)
2pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 22/1 (SKYBET)
1.5pts ew RAPHAEL JACQUELIN @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
BUY ENGLISH HOTSHOTS @ 34 (IGSPORT)
SHELL HOUSTON OPEN
6pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 9/2 (STAN JAMES, VCBET)
1.5pts ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew GREG OWEN @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-101pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
N.B. ALEX CEJKA WAS A NON-RUNNER LAST WEEK
Despite remaining a model of consistency, and being seen to best advantage on tough courses, 9/2 does look rather short at first for a player who hasn't won yet this year but looking down the field its hard to see who's going to beat him. Toms and Mike Weir don't look long enough off the tee, Irish raiders Padraig Harrington and Darren Clarke haven't shown nearly enough to warrant support in the States. Bearing in mind his extra motivation, and the fact that even on bad weeks in stronger company Vijay is clear odds-on to make the top-10, the Fijian has to be included in the staking plan, though perhaps the best value is in finding outsiders whose place terms are more than double his win odds.
It was a timely reminder of the strength in depth of the PGA Tour that a serious long-term prospect Aaron Baddeley could win his maiden event at huge odds, being universally overlooked by tipsters on a course that in hindsight played right to his strengths. Besides Singh, I suspect the most likely winner will be one of the many up and coming youngsters of Tour newcomers in opposition. Consistent Lucas Glover caught my attention but his odds are far too short for someone who, though clearly decent, doesn't strike me as a future Major winner. Monster hitting Bubba Watson could come into it if he can find enough fairways but for me the best prospect of the lot is Colombian CAMILIO VILLEGAS. This guy had looked a serious prospect on the Nationwide Tour and in the odd event in Australasia, but nobody expected him to make such a quick impact at the highest level. To come 3rd in the TPC at Sawgrass is quite a feat for a rookie, but I was even more impressed by his showing as runner-up to Tiger at Doral. On a similarly long course, Villegas traded blows with the world's greatest on equal terms and most importantly, never looked like shirking under pressure.
Mansfield's GREG OWEN has nowhere near the long-term potential of Villegas, but he has taken to the PGA Tour like a duck to water and warrants respect on tough courses. During an average career in Europe, Owen was always a class act from tee to green, and his stats in America confirm nothing has changed. 4 of his last 5 starts over here have been rock-solid efforts, so he must have each-way chances amongst a slightly weaker field on a course that suits.
The course being used for this week's BMW Asian Open in Thailand is also a long one, and previous history here suggests the Europeans will dominate. There was a considerably stronger European contingent set to play here, until Luke Donald and David Howell pulled out. Of those remaining, although I'm sure there will be a couple of big-priced players on the leaderboard, I've narrowed the likely winner down to 7. Of those 7, Henrik Stenson and Miguel-Angel Jiminez are left out on the basis of their price. Jiminez won here in 2004 and played well at Augusta, but all of this is factored into his price. 12/1 about Stenson in such company could look absolutely huge in a few months if the talented Swede gets back on track, but he's now put in three poor shows in succession.
There's no doubt in my mind who the best value is, England's PAUL CASEY. Ignore a poor effort here last year as his game was in turmoil, because this winter in Asia he has been by far the most consistent player with 1 win and 3 top-10s from five starts. Casey was right in the hunt again on Sunday until a poorly timed water visit on the back 9. He will relish the length of the course and could do some serious damage on the par-5s. Very similar comments apply to NICK DOUGHERTY, whose price is surprisingly big at 22/1. Certainly he hasn't looked half the player of Jiminez in recent months, though its clear he does owe me a few quid as I've probably tipped him a dozen times in the last year. With golf betting, you have to remain loyal when you think a player is a winner waiting to happen as the rewards will come eventually, and at nice odds.
These two make up half the team of IG's English Hotshots, which looks a very cheap buy at 34. The other two, David Lynn and Simon Dyson, both have claims as long as they can overcome psycholigical demons. Lynn from a very poor finish when primed to win at the weekend, and Dyson from this venue 2 years ago when he blew a six-shot lead on the final day. Otherwise, there's no reason to suggest they can't at least help towards getting the cut bonus, with Dougherty and Casey doing the main scoring.
For my other two outright selections, I'm choosing mainland European players. THOMAS BJORN is always a threat in this part of the world. True, you never know if this fragile character is about to self-implode but Bjorn is world-class on his day and oozes confidence in Asia. Recent form is better than it first appears from form figures too. He finished with a cracking 69 at Augusta to finish 32nd, with only Jiminez from this field ahead of him, and prior to that had been in contention at Sawgrass for the first two days. Finally, RAPHAEL JACQUELIN looks primed for a big week after working off some rust in his game with a solid down the field effort in China. Jacquelin is another who always fancies his chances in these co-sanctioned Asian events, and must be considered at 40/1.
BMW ASIAN OPEN
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 14/1 (BLUESQ, CORALS)
2pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 22/1 (SKYBET)
1.5pts ew RAPHAEL JACQUELIN @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
BUY ENGLISH HOTSHOTS @ 34 (IGSPORT)
SHELL HOUSTON OPEN
6pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 9/2 (STAN JAMES, VCBET)
1.5pts ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew GREG OWEN @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-101pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
N.B. ALEX CEJKA WAS A NON-RUNNER LAST WEEK
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 4:15 AM
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