One last chance for 'On Fire' Maguire
One of my favourite sporting and gambling events of the year, the 888.com World Snooker Championship, starts at Sheffield on Saturday. Its hard to overstate the importance of the next 17 days for snooker fans, as these days we are deprived for all but about 9 weeks of the year. As the status of snooker has declined in recent years, perversely it has become more unpredictable and therefore entertaining. Long gone are the days of facile Davis or Hendry wins as most tournaments are wide-open affairs, a point hammered home last year when 150/1 shot Shaun Murphy became the first unseeded winner since 1979.
The indifferent form of so many top players this season means such outsiders cannot be ruled out. In fact, as far as betting on the outright market is concerned, the route to profit might actually not involve finding the winner. The draw is so lop-sided that it should pay to follow some decent priced players who have fairly straightforward tasks to reach the latter stages, before having the necessary savers at that time. For example the two players most likely to win the event, Ronnie O'Sullivan and John Higgins, are scheduled to meet as early as the quarter-final, presuming Higgins gets past double world champ Mark Williams, and thats before we estimate the chances of a dangerous floater like Ryan Day who also shares this top-quality quarter. The most sensible thing to do in the circumstances is leave them to carve each other up, while focussing on other areas of the draw.
The weakest quarter is probably the top section containing defending champion Murphy. Despite generally retaining cracking form all season, that triumph remains Murphy's only ranking title, and he has history against him here as no player has ever successfully defended their first title at the Crucible. His prohibitive odds reflect an apparently straightforward opening couple of matches against James Wattana, and then Steve Davis or Andy Hicks. At his best, Murphy would have little trouble with those games, but I can see him surrendering the championship in a potentially epic quarter final against 2001 champion PETER EBDON. I'm perfectly happy to overlook some disappointing results for Ebdon this year, as he comes right into his own over these longer, pressure cooker matches. As clearly the second best player in this quarter, he makes plenty of each-way appeal at 33/1, particularly with place terms of half the odds to reach the final.
Ebdon's second-round opponent will be the winner of the first week's most interesting matches - JIMMY WHITE versus David Gray. Both players need to win this match to stay in the top-32, which in Jimmy's case practically means saving his career. Both have been woefully out of form, but I strongly fancy White to produce the goods now it is desperately required. Year after year, Jimmy comes to the Crucible and at least puts up a decent showing for the fans in his opening match. I've no doubt he will be prepared for the match, which is usually enough for a natural talent like White to fend off limited players. Also, I understand these two have been practice partners over the years, and White holds a big psychological edge. There's a part of me that wants to back the Whirlwind each-way at 150/1 as he could improve as the tournament goes on, but its safer to back the first round match and take it from there.
So, I reckon either Murphy, Ebdon or at a push, White, will reach the semis where they will face the winner of another very tough quarter to call. Ken Doherty, three times a finalist here, is probably the one to beat here on the basis of a very consistent season, but the draw is far from easy. The Irishman's first match is against the most dangerous non-seed, Barry Hawkins, and then is scheduled to play another Crucible specialist, Matthew Stevens in the last-16. Again, the best strategy is to avoid these players until we know who has emerged. Instead, for my second selection in the top-half of the draw, I've just got to stay loyal to STEPHEN MAGUIRE. As I write this, I can hear the laughter of snooker afficionados that anybody could tip Maguire after such a poor season, but there is some method behind my madness.
The last time I tipped Maguire, at the Benson and Hedges Masters, he responded by producing arguably the most abject display by a professional player in a live match, losing 6-0 to an out-of-sorts Stephen Lee and registering a highest break of 23. His form in the Premier League was equally dire, and there was another first-round defeat in the last event in China. But lets rewind one year. Maguire came to the Crucible last year provisionally No.3 in the world and defending UK champ, tipped by everyone to be World No 1 sooner or later. He then lost a classic opener 10-9 to O'Sullivan, but left with a lofty reputation very much intact. I was, and still am, convinced that when in form there is no more devastating break-builder alive. Amongst the various losses this year, there have been some glimpses of form. He looked set for a big run at the UK before, in Maguire's words, "Steve Davis played like God" to win the last three frames. In Malta too, he looked in good nick only to lose the deciding frame of a fine match to Doherty. I'm hoping that Maguire is well prepared for Sheffield, because if he brings his A game, he has two fairly easy matches in which to find some form and confidence before taking on the big guns. It can only be speculative, and cannot really be justified from a value perspective, but I still recommend an interest at 16/1.
There is another uncompetitive quarter in the bottom-half of the draw, containing Stephen Hendry, GRAEME DOTT, NEIL ROBERTSON, ALI CARTER and Stephen Lee, along with three massive outsiders. Needless to say, Hendry dominates the market here but is well worth taking on. Though the greatest player ever to pick up a cue still retains tremendous break-building ability on his day, in virtually every tournament nowadays he seems to have one awful match which he loses. My suspicion is that he just doesn't have the patience for long-drawn out, tactical matches any more, and could definitely struggle if such a match develops over 25 frames. Hendry and Dott are both red-hot favourites for their opening matches so are likely to meet in the second round. Dott, though ultimately a limited player, is a very gritty competitor who will test Hendry and showed two years ago how these longer matches suit him when he reached the final here.
Lee is also worth opposing in my view, despite a recent victory in the Wales Open. The draw opened up for him there, and I wasn't convinced Lee played that much better than the other recent tournaments he'd failed in. I've fallen for the trap of backing Lee at the Crucible before, only to see him buckle under the pressure as his stamina wilts. By backing the other three players in this section, we're taking combined odds of over 20/1 to win and 10/1 to reach the final. The place price in particular will look huge value should any of them get past Hendry and Lee to reach the semis. The most likely of the trio is Robertson, a future champion for sure though still probably a bit inexperienced. He should win his first round match against Paul Hunter, who is still battling cancer. Carter is a player that has consistently flattered to deceive, but if he can beat Lee in the opener I could see him at last reaching the latter stages of a big event. Last year, Ali played very well in both of his matches, losing the second one to O'Sullivan in unbeatable form so might be another player better suited to the longer format.
And so what of the Rocket, and the other principles? Ronnie's form has been generally poor this season, mostly down to obvious disinterest but he also injured his hand before the Welsh Open. At Wembley, he showed that when in the mood he is still far too good for most opponents but not apparently for John Higgins, who denied him in a classic final. Higgins is without doubt the player of the year, and strikes me as the most likely winner. The reason I simply cannot advise him at odds of 4/1 is that if you backed Higgins match by match in a running accumulator, it would pay probably double those odds. In fact, if he were to draw Mark Selby, Mark Williams, Ronnie, Hendry and then Murphy, the odds of the running accumulator would pay something like 12/1.If you can be bothered laying out money and trading between markets on the exchanges, there's probably some free money here. If not, best to back the weak sections now before re-assessing at the quarter and semi final stages.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
4pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew PETER EBDON @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew GRAEME DOTT @ 80/1 (TOTE)
2pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ALASTAIR CARTER @ 100/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES)
1ST ROUND MATCH
10pts JIMMY WHITE TO BEAT DAVID GRAY @ EVS (SKYBET)
The indifferent form of so many top players this season means such outsiders cannot be ruled out. In fact, as far as betting on the outright market is concerned, the route to profit might actually not involve finding the winner. The draw is so lop-sided that it should pay to follow some decent priced players who have fairly straightforward tasks to reach the latter stages, before having the necessary savers at that time. For example the two players most likely to win the event, Ronnie O'Sullivan and John Higgins, are scheduled to meet as early as the quarter-final, presuming Higgins gets past double world champ Mark Williams, and thats before we estimate the chances of a dangerous floater like Ryan Day who also shares this top-quality quarter. The most sensible thing to do in the circumstances is leave them to carve each other up, while focussing on other areas of the draw.
The weakest quarter is probably the top section containing defending champion Murphy. Despite generally retaining cracking form all season, that triumph remains Murphy's only ranking title, and he has history against him here as no player has ever successfully defended their first title at the Crucible. His prohibitive odds reflect an apparently straightforward opening couple of matches against James Wattana, and then Steve Davis or Andy Hicks. At his best, Murphy would have little trouble with those games, but I can see him surrendering the championship in a potentially epic quarter final against 2001 champion PETER EBDON. I'm perfectly happy to overlook some disappointing results for Ebdon this year, as he comes right into his own over these longer, pressure cooker matches. As clearly the second best player in this quarter, he makes plenty of each-way appeal at 33/1, particularly with place terms of half the odds to reach the final.
Ebdon's second-round opponent will be the winner of the first week's most interesting matches - JIMMY WHITE versus David Gray. Both players need to win this match to stay in the top-32, which in Jimmy's case practically means saving his career. Both have been woefully out of form, but I strongly fancy White to produce the goods now it is desperately required. Year after year, Jimmy comes to the Crucible and at least puts up a decent showing for the fans in his opening match. I've no doubt he will be prepared for the match, which is usually enough for a natural talent like White to fend off limited players. Also, I understand these two have been practice partners over the years, and White holds a big psychological edge. There's a part of me that wants to back the Whirlwind each-way at 150/1 as he could improve as the tournament goes on, but its safer to back the first round match and take it from there.
So, I reckon either Murphy, Ebdon or at a push, White, will reach the semis where they will face the winner of another very tough quarter to call. Ken Doherty, three times a finalist here, is probably the one to beat here on the basis of a very consistent season, but the draw is far from easy. The Irishman's first match is against the most dangerous non-seed, Barry Hawkins, and then is scheduled to play another Crucible specialist, Matthew Stevens in the last-16. Again, the best strategy is to avoid these players until we know who has emerged. Instead, for my second selection in the top-half of the draw, I've just got to stay loyal to STEPHEN MAGUIRE. As I write this, I can hear the laughter of snooker afficionados that anybody could tip Maguire after such a poor season, but there is some method behind my madness.
The last time I tipped Maguire, at the Benson and Hedges Masters, he responded by producing arguably the most abject display by a professional player in a live match, losing 6-0 to an out-of-sorts Stephen Lee and registering a highest break of 23. His form in the Premier League was equally dire, and there was another first-round defeat in the last event in China. But lets rewind one year. Maguire came to the Crucible last year provisionally No.3 in the world and defending UK champ, tipped by everyone to be World No 1 sooner or later. He then lost a classic opener 10-9 to O'Sullivan, but left with a lofty reputation very much intact. I was, and still am, convinced that when in form there is no more devastating break-builder alive. Amongst the various losses this year, there have been some glimpses of form. He looked set for a big run at the UK before, in Maguire's words, "Steve Davis played like God" to win the last three frames. In Malta too, he looked in good nick only to lose the deciding frame of a fine match to Doherty. I'm hoping that Maguire is well prepared for Sheffield, because if he brings his A game, he has two fairly easy matches in which to find some form and confidence before taking on the big guns. It can only be speculative, and cannot really be justified from a value perspective, but I still recommend an interest at 16/1.
There is another uncompetitive quarter in the bottom-half of the draw, containing Stephen Hendry, GRAEME DOTT, NEIL ROBERTSON, ALI CARTER and Stephen Lee, along with three massive outsiders. Needless to say, Hendry dominates the market here but is well worth taking on. Though the greatest player ever to pick up a cue still retains tremendous break-building ability on his day, in virtually every tournament nowadays he seems to have one awful match which he loses. My suspicion is that he just doesn't have the patience for long-drawn out, tactical matches any more, and could definitely struggle if such a match develops over 25 frames. Hendry and Dott are both red-hot favourites for their opening matches so are likely to meet in the second round. Dott, though ultimately a limited player, is a very gritty competitor who will test Hendry and showed two years ago how these longer matches suit him when he reached the final here.
Lee is also worth opposing in my view, despite a recent victory in the Wales Open. The draw opened up for him there, and I wasn't convinced Lee played that much better than the other recent tournaments he'd failed in. I've fallen for the trap of backing Lee at the Crucible before, only to see him buckle under the pressure as his stamina wilts. By backing the other three players in this section, we're taking combined odds of over 20/1 to win and 10/1 to reach the final. The place price in particular will look huge value should any of them get past Hendry and Lee to reach the semis. The most likely of the trio is Robertson, a future champion for sure though still probably a bit inexperienced. He should win his first round match against Paul Hunter, who is still battling cancer. Carter is a player that has consistently flattered to deceive, but if he can beat Lee in the opener I could see him at last reaching the latter stages of a big event. Last year, Ali played very well in both of his matches, losing the second one to O'Sullivan in unbeatable form so might be another player better suited to the longer format.
And so what of the Rocket, and the other principles? Ronnie's form has been generally poor this season, mostly down to obvious disinterest but he also injured his hand before the Welsh Open. At Wembley, he showed that when in the mood he is still far too good for most opponents but not apparently for John Higgins, who denied him in a classic final. Higgins is without doubt the player of the year, and strikes me as the most likely winner. The reason I simply cannot advise him at odds of 4/1 is that if you backed Higgins match by match in a running accumulator, it would pay probably double those odds. In fact, if he were to draw Mark Selby, Mark Williams, Ronnie, Hendry and then Murphy, the odds of the running accumulator would pay something like 12/1.If you can be bothered laying out money and trading between markets on the exchanges, there's probably some free money here. If not, best to back the weak sections now before re-assessing at the quarter and semi final stages.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
4pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew PETER EBDON @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew GRAEME DOTT @ 80/1 (TOTE)
2pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ALASTAIR CARTER @ 100/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES)
1ST ROUND MATCH
10pts JIMMY WHITE TO BEAT DAVID GRAY @ EVS (SKYBET)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 2:40 AM
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