Lara can claim long overdue success
Bad runs at gambling can be an infuriating business, no more so than in golf. In recent weeks, my weekly selections seem to have either hit the woodwork (like Paul Casey), or in some cases like David Howell and Greg Owen, suffered terrible stage fright. The crucial thing to remember is that, because golfers are competing in fields of 150+, its very easy to go on a long losing run and very easy to turn it around. In both the previous years in which I've been doing this, I've managed to turn a profit with a relatively small number of winners.
With decent prize money and fields set for my favoured European Tour over the next couple of months, I'm confident a winning run is imminent. I was somewhat disappointed though to see that this week's Spanish Open has actually attracted an even weaker field than some of the Asian Tour fare of recent weeks. MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ starts favourite for the second week in a row, at a slightly bigger price due to a poor show in Thailand, but this time there is no Casey, Stenson and Dougherty in opposition. Question marks surround all of the market leaders. Jiminez's main rival in the betting is OOM champion Colin Montgomerie. Monty's quote is purely a result of his third place at the weekend, his first form of any description for a while. Certainly not justification to taking 10/1, especially considering the wind being a likely factor.
The course at San Roque club is yet another new one, though expected to be fairly similar to the short, narrow but exposed one on which only ten players broke par last year. Not the type of course one would normally consider favourable to big-hitters like Charl Schwartzel and Ricardo Gonzalez, thought the recent Euro Tour form of Gonzalez does warrant respect. Thomas Bjorn is always dangerous and played well on occasions last week, but is too unreliable and is showing signs of his notorious wayward temperament. The other obvious contenders, NICLAS FASTH and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano have more solid chances. If Castano hadn't won last week, I would definitely have tipped him this week on home turf but back-to-back wins are rare, especially at his age.
With those question marks, Jiminez might be expected to turn his home advantage to effect. Against him is a hectic globetrotting schedule, and last week's disappointing effort. Alternatively, a repeat of his previous performance at the Masters, or earlier efforts in Qatar and Dubai, would probably win this event by at least 5 shots. In the absence of alternatives, I must have a saver. The one obvious contender who its hard to make a case against is Fasth. Unlike most of the others, he swerved the Far East and hasn't played since a top-10 in Portugal which was better than the result suggests. Niclas often goes well in this part of the world, and is overdue a victory. The course is perfectly suitable, as he usually plays very well in the wind.
Though his price is not very reflective of the fact he has yet to win on Tour, I can't see JOSE-MANUEL LARA being too far away at this level on home turf at 33/1. Lara must surely win, or at least challenge strongly soon. His game from tee to green is too consistent not to. This course, along with home support, should play right to his strengths. I have to be honest and say it would come as no shock whatsoever to me if a huge priced winner popped up. Looking through the field at the 66/1 - 150/1 section though, none of them make any particular appeal, so instead I'm having one small, speculative punt on 250/1 shot FREDERICK WIDMARK. As I've said before, this Swede is one of the better recruits from the Challenge Tour, and he knows how to win when in contention. Also in his favour is a good record over the years in the Meditteranean region.
The US Tour event is much more attractive from a stars point of view, with Phil Mickelson making his first appearance since winning the Masters, along with Retief Goosen. Once you get beyond those two, out of form David Toms, Chris Dimarco and Padraig Harrington, there isn't a great deal of strength in depth. Stuart Appleby bids to follow up on last weekend's facile success, but again the rarity of back to back winners becomes an issue. Stephen Ames has very solid claims but two world-class efforts at Sawgrass and Augusta means Ames is at least half the odds than he would have been if this were played a month ago.
Mickelson is the man I just can't get right. For the many years when he seemed to possess no golfing brain whatsoever, opposing Lefty on hard courses and the climaxes to Major championships had become a decent source of regular income. I have a theory that, connected in some way to the years of massive hostility directed from me towards my television screen when he was playing, now Phil is the real deal circumstances will conspire to prevent me from winning anything on him. I'll say clearly what I've said time and again for the last 2 years. Now he has learnt the art of self-control and matured as a golfer, Mickelson is pretty much level with Tiger Woods. I had him lined up for a bet at Augusta for months when double-figure prices were widely available, but a runaway win at the Bellsouth Classic put paid to that plan. There seems little point in chasing losses at less than 4/1, when he will also be the subject of disproportionate crowd and media attention at English Turn this week.
Better value lies in trying to find some each-way value. I'd much rather take 20/1 about a top-five place on FREDDY JACOBSEN for instance. We're still waiting for the Swede to make the expected big impact in the States that he promised in his last year in Europe and a handful of US events. I'm sure it will happen soon as Jacobsen certainly possesses the ability. English Turn, with its emphasis on quality iron play, looks one of the most likely venues for such an emergence so I'm prepared to overlook a bad week in Houston and no previous course experience. Three of Freddie's last five efforts have been solid enough so he's not in bad form and believe me, once he wins we will not see 80/1 again in an event of this stature for a long time.
Similarly, 40/1 looks decent each-way value for the promising ZACH JOHNSON. A multiple winner on the Nationwide Tour, and a winner in his rookie season on the PGA Tour, Zach is long overdue. His 2006 form is rock solid, with the highlights being a distant runner-up to Mickelson at Sugarloaf, and 3rd place at the World Matchplay. On each occasion, Johnson has impressed with his accuracy and iron play, useful qualities here. In fact, speaking ahead, if Zach remains in consistent form, he is a certainty to be included in my staking plan for next month's US Open.
The other European who I am slowly running out of patience with is JUSTIN ROSE. Rose looked a certain winner in 2006 on the evidence of last summer, and of course from Euro Tour form that now seems age-old. Rose was a very impressive 5th on his debut at English Turn last year, so should fancy his chances. Again, we've got to overlook three consecutive poor efforts in his last three events, but the previous top-10 at Bay Hill suggests not everything is wrong with Justin's game at the moment. At 80/1, I can't afford to leave him out.
SPANISH OPEN
2pts ew NICLAS FASTH @ 20/1 (BETFRED, PADDY POWER, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts win MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 11/1 ON BETFAIR)
0.5pts ew FREDERICK WIDMARK @ 250/1(SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER)
ZURICH CLASSIC OF NEW ORLEANS
1.5pts ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew FREDERICK JACOBSEN @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 80/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-125.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
With decent prize money and fields set for my favoured European Tour over the next couple of months, I'm confident a winning run is imminent. I was somewhat disappointed though to see that this week's Spanish Open has actually attracted an even weaker field than some of the Asian Tour fare of recent weeks. MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ starts favourite for the second week in a row, at a slightly bigger price due to a poor show in Thailand, but this time there is no Casey, Stenson and Dougherty in opposition. Question marks surround all of the market leaders. Jiminez's main rival in the betting is OOM champion Colin Montgomerie. Monty's quote is purely a result of his third place at the weekend, his first form of any description for a while. Certainly not justification to taking 10/1, especially considering the wind being a likely factor.
The course at San Roque club is yet another new one, though expected to be fairly similar to the short, narrow but exposed one on which only ten players broke par last year. Not the type of course one would normally consider favourable to big-hitters like Charl Schwartzel and Ricardo Gonzalez, thought the recent Euro Tour form of Gonzalez does warrant respect. Thomas Bjorn is always dangerous and played well on occasions last week, but is too unreliable and is showing signs of his notorious wayward temperament. The other obvious contenders, NICLAS FASTH and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano have more solid chances. If Castano hadn't won last week, I would definitely have tipped him this week on home turf but back-to-back wins are rare, especially at his age.
With those question marks, Jiminez might be expected to turn his home advantage to effect. Against him is a hectic globetrotting schedule, and last week's disappointing effort. Alternatively, a repeat of his previous performance at the Masters, or earlier efforts in Qatar and Dubai, would probably win this event by at least 5 shots. In the absence of alternatives, I must have a saver. The one obvious contender who its hard to make a case against is Fasth. Unlike most of the others, he swerved the Far East and hasn't played since a top-10 in Portugal which was better than the result suggests. Niclas often goes well in this part of the world, and is overdue a victory. The course is perfectly suitable, as he usually plays very well in the wind.
Though his price is not very reflective of the fact he has yet to win on Tour, I can't see JOSE-MANUEL LARA being too far away at this level on home turf at 33/1. Lara must surely win, or at least challenge strongly soon. His game from tee to green is too consistent not to. This course, along with home support, should play right to his strengths. I have to be honest and say it would come as no shock whatsoever to me if a huge priced winner popped up. Looking through the field at the 66/1 - 150/1 section though, none of them make any particular appeal, so instead I'm having one small, speculative punt on 250/1 shot FREDERICK WIDMARK. As I've said before, this Swede is one of the better recruits from the Challenge Tour, and he knows how to win when in contention. Also in his favour is a good record over the years in the Meditteranean region.
The US Tour event is much more attractive from a stars point of view, with Phil Mickelson making his first appearance since winning the Masters, along with Retief Goosen. Once you get beyond those two, out of form David Toms, Chris Dimarco and Padraig Harrington, there isn't a great deal of strength in depth. Stuart Appleby bids to follow up on last weekend's facile success, but again the rarity of back to back winners becomes an issue. Stephen Ames has very solid claims but two world-class efforts at Sawgrass and Augusta means Ames is at least half the odds than he would have been if this were played a month ago.
Mickelson is the man I just can't get right. For the many years when he seemed to possess no golfing brain whatsoever, opposing Lefty on hard courses and the climaxes to Major championships had become a decent source of regular income. I have a theory that, connected in some way to the years of massive hostility directed from me towards my television screen when he was playing, now Phil is the real deal circumstances will conspire to prevent me from winning anything on him. I'll say clearly what I've said time and again for the last 2 years. Now he has learnt the art of self-control and matured as a golfer, Mickelson is pretty much level with Tiger Woods. I had him lined up for a bet at Augusta for months when double-figure prices were widely available, but a runaway win at the Bellsouth Classic put paid to that plan. There seems little point in chasing losses at less than 4/1, when he will also be the subject of disproportionate crowd and media attention at English Turn this week.
Better value lies in trying to find some each-way value. I'd much rather take 20/1 about a top-five place on FREDDY JACOBSEN for instance. We're still waiting for the Swede to make the expected big impact in the States that he promised in his last year in Europe and a handful of US events. I'm sure it will happen soon as Jacobsen certainly possesses the ability. English Turn, with its emphasis on quality iron play, looks one of the most likely venues for such an emergence so I'm prepared to overlook a bad week in Houston and no previous course experience. Three of Freddie's last five efforts have been solid enough so he's not in bad form and believe me, once he wins we will not see 80/1 again in an event of this stature for a long time.
Similarly, 40/1 looks decent each-way value for the promising ZACH JOHNSON. A multiple winner on the Nationwide Tour, and a winner in his rookie season on the PGA Tour, Zach is long overdue. His 2006 form is rock solid, with the highlights being a distant runner-up to Mickelson at Sugarloaf, and 3rd place at the World Matchplay. On each occasion, Johnson has impressed with his accuracy and iron play, useful qualities here. In fact, speaking ahead, if Zach remains in consistent form, he is a certainty to be included in my staking plan for next month's US Open.
The other European who I am slowly running out of patience with is JUSTIN ROSE. Rose looked a certain winner in 2006 on the evidence of last summer, and of course from Euro Tour form that now seems age-old. Rose was a very impressive 5th on his debut at English Turn last year, so should fancy his chances. Again, we've got to overlook three consecutive poor efforts in his last three events, but the previous top-10 at Bay Hill suggests not everything is wrong with Justin's game at the moment. At 80/1, I can't afford to leave him out.
SPANISH OPEN
2pts ew NICLAS FASTH @ 20/1 (BETFRED, PADDY POWER, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts win MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 11/1 ON BETFAIR)
0.5pts ew FREDERICK WIDMARK @ 250/1(SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER)
ZURICH CLASSIC OF NEW ORLEANS
1.5pts ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew FREDERICK JACOBSEN @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 80/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-125.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 2:11 AM
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