Back Ernie to end Masters jinx
Officially, the first Major of the season starts this Thursday at Augusta, but for me the US Masters is nowhere nearly as eagerly anticipated as the unofficial 5th Major that took place at Sawgrass a fortnight ago. I appreciate there are many golfing connoisseurs out there who would consider this to be sacrilege but ultimately, I'm a gambler, and I would rather see the lead change 19 times involving 8 players in the same round as we saw on the Saturday of Sawgrass. The chances of anything like that at Augusta are remote to say the least. The Masters is without doubt the Major where the difference between the big-hitting elite players and the rest is most profound. Year in year out, this is dominated by the big 5, and betting over the weekend can be a bit dull as there are rarely more than two or three players seriously in contention on the last day (though it does happen occasionally).
Consider the stats of the big 5 at Augusta. Tiger Woods bids for a 5th Green Jacket in 10 years. Phil Mickelson has 7 consecutive top-10s here, including one win and four 3rd placings. VIJAY SINGH has four top-7 finishes from 5 starts since winning in 2000. ERNIE ELS has yet to win but prior to a poor showing in 2005, had finished in the top 6 five years in succession. RETIEF GOOSEN hates the place in comparison, having only finished 2nd, 3rd and 13th twice in the last four years! Whats more, their dominance looks likely to be exaggerated further this year due to the considerable lengthening of an already long course. The message to punters is clear. Concentrate all your attention in the outright market on selections from these 5 players, and leave any other fancies to the usual wide array of interesting speciality markets where they don't have to take on all the superstars.
So who to pick from this elite? Obviously Tiger is a worthy favourite at his second home and better value than his skinny odds look at first glance. If you'd taken 7/2 about him every year since he turned pro in 1997, you'd be showing a handy profit. In 2005, he was back to his awesome best in the Majors, and despite persistent inaccuracy off the tee, Woods has won 3 times already this year on courses that suit his game. But then there is the added complication caused by his father's terminal illness, which might impact on Tiger's focus. Phil Mickelson has a blindingly obvious chance after an amazing performance at Sugarloaf over the weekend, but his price is now predictably in freefall with 13/2 the best left. Considering their fine course records, I'd prefer to back the other three each-way at place terms that pay the equivalent of Tiger's win odds.
Els is in danger of surpassing Greg Norman's unenviable tag of being the best player never to win a Masters. I don't think there was a person alive who didn't assume Ernie was at least guaranteed a play-off when he signed his card two years ago, before Mickelson started that miraculous birdie blitz to break his heart again. However, he did nothing badly wrong on any of his many near-misses here and I remain confident the Big Easy has at least a couple more Majors left in him. He hasn't started at these kind of odds at Augusta for years, based on an average set of finishes since returning to the PGA Tour after injury. Alternatively though, he only went down in a play-off to Woods in Dubai, and by a shot at Fancourt to Goosen. I also thought for a brief moment that he was going to nick the Players Championship recently when he shot up the leaderboard on the final day. It was only a couple of disasters chasing pins over those last few treacherous holes that sent him back to 8th place but he looked to be right back in the groove. A week off since to prepare won't have done any harm either, compared to Mickelson who might have trouble keeping the run going for a second week.
Goosen's chance is extremely obvious and surely better than his odds of 12/1 imply. He has increasingly looked a natural for Augusta in the last few years and comes here in fine form. He played brilliantly for the last 63 holes at Sawgrass but can hardly be criticised for not being able to catch the runaway winner, and followed up with a rock-solid fourth place. Goose seems to be a permanent feature on the leaderboard at all the Majors nowadays, and 3/1 for the top-5 finish looks particularly good. As for Vijay, we just have to hope for a decent putting week. It seems as if the Fijian has gone off the boil because he hasn't won for a while, but he still has eight top-10 finishes from his last 11 tournaments, having never finished lower than 24th. With that consistency on a course where his long-hitting advantage is accentuated, I just can't see him being far away and a 2nd Green Jacket is perfectly feasible.
And so to the speciality markets. The Masters is one of the best events of the year for these, as I can't think of a single course where previous course form is so important. Some players just never take to the heavily contoured, lightning fast greens, or aren't long enough off the tee, or just aren't good enough iron players. Augusta really seems to get to some players. On the other hand, aside the principles, the same old faces frequent the top-20 most years. Previous winners tend to build up a bank of course form, even late in their careers such as Jose-Maria Olazabal, who has big claims of a third Green Jacket, and even Bernhard Langer got into the thick of it here 2 years ago.
I was going to back ANGEL CABRERA for the outright at 100/1 but on reflection 40/1 without the big 5 looks much better value. Betfred, Skybet and Betfair have a market for this at the moment but others may well follow. The Duck has always looked the kind of player to do well here, with his great length off the tee and fine touch around the greens. Argentina's finest did manage three consecutive top-15s from 2001-2003, and could come into his own now the course has been lengthened. He also looks a cracking bet to beat Robert Allenby in a 72-hole match bet with Hills as Allenby has never prospered here in several visits. Again in this market, it should pay to stick with the obvious as LUKE DONALD looks rock-solid each-way value at 14/1. I have great doubts that Donald will ever win at Augusta, because he will always have to concede a lot of length off the tee to the biggest hitters. But to come 3rd on his debut here last year was a magnificent effort, and showed that his precision irons are exactly what is required on these greens. I think Luke looks a banker for the top-10 here, but am much happier taking 14/1 against the field than 33/1 against Tiger and co, of whom I'm sure one will finish ahead of England's best chance.
The bet of the week though has to be PAUL MCGINLEY to beat Fred Funk over 72 holes at 9/10 with Hills. I don't know why they've paired these two, as Funk has a catastrophic record at Augusta. The straightest hitter on tour is also one of the shortest, a death knell at Augusta at the best of times and even more so now. In eight visits, he's missed five cuts, with one 17th position the only noteworthy effort. McGinley finished a creditable 18th on his debut and has improved lots since. I quietly fancy McGinley to sneak into the fringes of contention, so he simply must be backed here in a bet that he might only need make the cut to win.
A couple of Betfred's groups don't look like they'll take much winning either. Group F contains serial Augusta failures Allenby, Rory Sabbatini and Michael Campbell, along with Tim Clark and KJ CHOI. Preference here has to be for the Korean, whose course form reads a solid 15th, 3rd and 33rd. Group H looks even weaker with Colin Montgomerie, Justin Leonard and Stewart Cink all highly unlikely to figure as is debutant Lucas Glover. ROD PAMPLING stands out in this company. There is a vague correlation between form at Augusta and Bay Hill, scene of Pampling's recent breakthrough victory. That win could represent a real turning point in the career of this previously under-achieving Aussie, who finished a highly impressive 5th on his Masters debut last year. Pampling must also be backed at 8/1 for a top-10 finish and in a 72 hole match bet against his compatriot Stuart Appleby, who has yet to make the top-20 here in nine visits.
Only a late bogey cost us a nice payout on TOM LEHMAN at Sawgrass on both the top-10 and top American without Tiger markets. Once again, the US Ryder Cup captain has been underestimated at a venue where he has prospered in the past. I recommend backing Tom in both markets at 9/1 and 40/1 respectively. It would have been better if the bookies had created a "Top American w/o Tiger and Mickelson" market, as Lefty will take the world of beating in this market. Nevertheless, once you get past Phil there isn't that much to beat. The most likely challenger for me is CHAD CAMPBELL who is enjoying his best year to date with a series of consistent performances including a win at the Bob Hope Classic. Augusta definitely takes some learning, so it was a positive to see Chad improve on two missed cuts on his first two visits with 17th place last year. There's no reason why he should't be suited by Augusta so a big run is expected.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
US MASTERS
OUTRIGHT
3pts ew ERNIE ELS @ 12/1 (HILLS, STAN JAMES, SPORTING ODDS)
3pts ew RETIEF GOOSEN @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
BETTING WITHOUT BIG 5
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 40/1 (BETFRED, SKYBET)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 14/1 (BETFRED)
TOP AMERICAN WITHOUT WOODS
1pt ew CHAD CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (LADBROKES)
1pt ew TOM LEHMAN @ 40/1 (LADBROKES, TOTE)
72-HOLE MATCH BETS
22pts PAUL MCGINLEY @ 10/11 (VS FRED FUNK) (HILLS)
11pts ANGEL CABRERA @ 10/11 (VS ROBERT ALLENBY) (HILLS)
11pts ROD PAMPLING @ 10/11 (VS STUART APPLEBY) (HILLS)
72-HOLE GROUP BETS
4pts KJ CHOI TO WIN GROUP F @ 7/2 (BETFRED)
3pts ROD PAMPLING TO WIN GROUP H @ 10/3 (BETFRED)
TOP 10 FINISH
2pts ROD PAMPLING @ 8/1 (SKYBET, PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES)
1pt TOM LEHMAN @ 9/1 (PADDY POWER, BETFAIR)
2006 STATS: (-117pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
Consider the stats of the big 5 at Augusta. Tiger Woods bids for a 5th Green Jacket in 10 years. Phil Mickelson has 7 consecutive top-10s here, including one win and four 3rd placings. VIJAY SINGH has four top-7 finishes from 5 starts since winning in 2000. ERNIE ELS has yet to win but prior to a poor showing in 2005, had finished in the top 6 five years in succession. RETIEF GOOSEN hates the place in comparison, having only finished 2nd, 3rd and 13th twice in the last four years! Whats more, their dominance looks likely to be exaggerated further this year due to the considerable lengthening of an already long course. The message to punters is clear. Concentrate all your attention in the outright market on selections from these 5 players, and leave any other fancies to the usual wide array of interesting speciality markets where they don't have to take on all the superstars.
So who to pick from this elite? Obviously Tiger is a worthy favourite at his second home and better value than his skinny odds look at first glance. If you'd taken 7/2 about him every year since he turned pro in 1997, you'd be showing a handy profit. In 2005, he was back to his awesome best in the Majors, and despite persistent inaccuracy off the tee, Woods has won 3 times already this year on courses that suit his game. But then there is the added complication caused by his father's terminal illness, which might impact on Tiger's focus. Phil Mickelson has a blindingly obvious chance after an amazing performance at Sugarloaf over the weekend, but his price is now predictably in freefall with 13/2 the best left. Considering their fine course records, I'd prefer to back the other three each-way at place terms that pay the equivalent of Tiger's win odds.
Els is in danger of surpassing Greg Norman's unenviable tag of being the best player never to win a Masters. I don't think there was a person alive who didn't assume Ernie was at least guaranteed a play-off when he signed his card two years ago, before Mickelson started that miraculous birdie blitz to break his heart again. However, he did nothing badly wrong on any of his many near-misses here and I remain confident the Big Easy has at least a couple more Majors left in him. He hasn't started at these kind of odds at Augusta for years, based on an average set of finishes since returning to the PGA Tour after injury. Alternatively though, he only went down in a play-off to Woods in Dubai, and by a shot at Fancourt to Goosen. I also thought for a brief moment that he was going to nick the Players Championship recently when he shot up the leaderboard on the final day. It was only a couple of disasters chasing pins over those last few treacherous holes that sent him back to 8th place but he looked to be right back in the groove. A week off since to prepare won't have done any harm either, compared to Mickelson who might have trouble keeping the run going for a second week.
Goosen's chance is extremely obvious and surely better than his odds of 12/1 imply. He has increasingly looked a natural for Augusta in the last few years and comes here in fine form. He played brilliantly for the last 63 holes at Sawgrass but can hardly be criticised for not being able to catch the runaway winner, and followed up with a rock-solid fourth place. Goose seems to be a permanent feature on the leaderboard at all the Majors nowadays, and 3/1 for the top-5 finish looks particularly good. As for Vijay, we just have to hope for a decent putting week. It seems as if the Fijian has gone off the boil because he hasn't won for a while, but he still has eight top-10 finishes from his last 11 tournaments, having never finished lower than 24th. With that consistency on a course where his long-hitting advantage is accentuated, I just can't see him being far away and a 2nd Green Jacket is perfectly feasible.
And so to the speciality markets. The Masters is one of the best events of the year for these, as I can't think of a single course where previous course form is so important. Some players just never take to the heavily contoured, lightning fast greens, or aren't long enough off the tee, or just aren't good enough iron players. Augusta really seems to get to some players. On the other hand, aside the principles, the same old faces frequent the top-20 most years. Previous winners tend to build up a bank of course form, even late in their careers such as Jose-Maria Olazabal, who has big claims of a third Green Jacket, and even Bernhard Langer got into the thick of it here 2 years ago.
I was going to back ANGEL CABRERA for the outright at 100/1 but on reflection 40/1 without the big 5 looks much better value. Betfred, Skybet and Betfair have a market for this at the moment but others may well follow. The Duck has always looked the kind of player to do well here, with his great length off the tee and fine touch around the greens. Argentina's finest did manage three consecutive top-15s from 2001-2003, and could come into his own now the course has been lengthened. He also looks a cracking bet to beat Robert Allenby in a 72-hole match bet with Hills as Allenby has never prospered here in several visits. Again in this market, it should pay to stick with the obvious as LUKE DONALD looks rock-solid each-way value at 14/1. I have great doubts that Donald will ever win at Augusta, because he will always have to concede a lot of length off the tee to the biggest hitters. But to come 3rd on his debut here last year was a magnificent effort, and showed that his precision irons are exactly what is required on these greens. I think Luke looks a banker for the top-10 here, but am much happier taking 14/1 against the field than 33/1 against Tiger and co, of whom I'm sure one will finish ahead of England's best chance.
The bet of the week though has to be PAUL MCGINLEY to beat Fred Funk over 72 holes at 9/10 with Hills. I don't know why they've paired these two, as Funk has a catastrophic record at Augusta. The straightest hitter on tour is also one of the shortest, a death knell at Augusta at the best of times and even more so now. In eight visits, he's missed five cuts, with one 17th position the only noteworthy effort. McGinley finished a creditable 18th on his debut and has improved lots since. I quietly fancy McGinley to sneak into the fringes of contention, so he simply must be backed here in a bet that he might only need make the cut to win.
A couple of Betfred's groups don't look like they'll take much winning either. Group F contains serial Augusta failures Allenby, Rory Sabbatini and Michael Campbell, along with Tim Clark and KJ CHOI. Preference here has to be for the Korean, whose course form reads a solid 15th, 3rd and 33rd. Group H looks even weaker with Colin Montgomerie, Justin Leonard and Stewart Cink all highly unlikely to figure as is debutant Lucas Glover. ROD PAMPLING stands out in this company. There is a vague correlation between form at Augusta and Bay Hill, scene of Pampling's recent breakthrough victory. That win could represent a real turning point in the career of this previously under-achieving Aussie, who finished a highly impressive 5th on his Masters debut last year. Pampling must also be backed at 8/1 for a top-10 finish and in a 72 hole match bet against his compatriot Stuart Appleby, who has yet to make the top-20 here in nine visits.
Only a late bogey cost us a nice payout on TOM LEHMAN at Sawgrass on both the top-10 and top American without Tiger markets. Once again, the US Ryder Cup captain has been underestimated at a venue where he has prospered in the past. I recommend backing Tom in both markets at 9/1 and 40/1 respectively. It would have been better if the bookies had created a "Top American w/o Tiger and Mickelson" market, as Lefty will take the world of beating in this market. Nevertheless, once you get past Phil there isn't that much to beat. The most likely challenger for me is CHAD CAMPBELL who is enjoying his best year to date with a series of consistent performances including a win at the Bob Hope Classic. Augusta definitely takes some learning, so it was a positive to see Chad improve on two missed cuts on his first two visits with 17th place last year. There's no reason why he should't be suited by Augusta so a big run is expected.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
US MASTERS
OUTRIGHT
3pts ew ERNIE ELS @ 12/1 (HILLS, STAN JAMES, SPORTING ODDS)
3pts ew RETIEF GOOSEN @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
BETTING WITHOUT BIG 5
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 40/1 (BETFRED, SKYBET)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 14/1 (BETFRED)
TOP AMERICAN WITHOUT WOODS
1pt ew CHAD CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (LADBROKES)
1pt ew TOM LEHMAN @ 40/1 (LADBROKES, TOTE)
72-HOLE MATCH BETS
22pts PAUL MCGINLEY @ 10/11 (VS FRED FUNK) (HILLS)
11pts ANGEL CABRERA @ 10/11 (VS ROBERT ALLENBY) (HILLS)
11pts ROD PAMPLING @ 10/11 (VS STUART APPLEBY) (HILLS)
72-HOLE GROUP BETS
4pts KJ CHOI TO WIN GROUP F @ 7/2 (BETFRED)
3pts ROD PAMPLING TO WIN GROUP H @ 10/3 (BETFRED)
TOP 10 FINISH
2pts ROD PAMPLING @ 8/1 (SKYBET, PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES)
1pt TOM LEHMAN @ 9/1 (PADDY POWER, BETFAIR)
2006 STATS: (-117pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 4:13 AM
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