Wild Thing to smash short-hitting Leonard
Following intense rainfall the course at La Costa has been waterlogged, causing the postponement of Round 1. Aside the inconvenience for players, spectators and punters alike, the implications for betting could be profound. With the fairways drenched and rough extremely difficult, short hitters are now at a massive disadvantage.
I've already highlighted the advantage that Stewart Cink will have over his round 1 opponent Fred Funk, but with the Alabaman a best priced 4/7, a play on the outright market remains the best strategy. Equally, I expect Davis Love to make full use of his length advantage agaiinst Chris Riley but, in the lottery of 18 matchplay, can think of better ways of investing money than backing 8/13 shots.
The bet of the day looks to be JOHN DALY to beat Justin Leonard. The match seems to have been priced up on recent PGA Tour form with recent Bob Hope Classic winner Leonard a unanimous favourite. However, the length advantage should be more profound in this match than any other. Leonard is one of the shortest hitters on Tour while Daly is one of the biggest hitters ever to pick up a club. I expect 'Wild Thing' to enjoy a 30 yard advantage on every hole aside the par 3s, a priceless commodity in matchplay. This is Daly's first visit to the World Matchplay and, due to the nature of his game, he should be ideally suited to matchplay. The erratic dual Major winner's weakness has always been his propensity to ruin decent rounds with the odd disaster hole where his temperament falls apart. Whilst in strokeplay, this is a cardinal sin and destroys the scorecard, it only costs one hole in matchplay and the error can soon be atoned. To my mind, Daly should be clear favourite, making the widespread 6/5 enormous value.
ADVICE: 4pts JOHN DALY (vs JUSTIN LEONARD) @ 6/5 (5/4 with STANLEYBET, GOLFING GODS)
I've already highlighted the advantage that Stewart Cink will have over his round 1 opponent Fred Funk, but with the Alabaman a best priced 4/7, a play on the outright market remains the best strategy. Equally, I expect Davis Love to make full use of his length advantage agaiinst Chris Riley but, in the lottery of 18 matchplay, can think of better ways of investing money than backing 8/13 shots.
The bet of the day looks to be JOHN DALY to beat Justin Leonard. The match seems to have been priced up on recent PGA Tour form with recent Bob Hope Classic winner Leonard a unanimous favourite. However, the length advantage should be more profound in this match than any other. Leonard is one of the shortest hitters on Tour while Daly is one of the biggest hitters ever to pick up a club. I expect 'Wild Thing' to enjoy a 30 yard advantage on every hole aside the par 3s, a priceless commodity in matchplay. This is Daly's first visit to the World Matchplay and, due to the nature of his game, he should be ideally suited to matchplay. The erratic dual Major winner's weakness has always been his propensity to ruin decent rounds with the odd disaster hole where his temperament falls apart. Whilst in strokeplay, this is a cardinal sin and destroys the scorecard, it only costs one hole in matchplay and the error can soon be atoned. To my mind, Daly should be clear favourite, making the widespread 6/5 enormous value.
ADVICE: 4pts JOHN DALY (vs JUSTIN LEONARD) @ 6/5 (5/4 with STANLEYBET, GOLFING GODS)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 4:17 PM
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