Weekly Golf Column Update

As anyone who has been following my weekly golf column will need no reminding, I have been on a truly terrible run. After the glory days of 2008, where my annual profit topped 600 points, with just a few weeks left of the 2009 campaign I'm well over 200 points down. All I can do is apologise to those who have been following my tips, and to say that I genuinely do share your suffering. This has been my worst run of golf betting in over a decade, and most certainly since turning professional six years ago.

Now anyone who knows anything about gambling will surely understand that bad runs do happen, and with that in mind I'm trying to stay positive. However, I'd be lying if I didn't admit that last week in particular was an utterly depressing experience.

The right course of action is to constantly assess and scrutinise strategies while always keeping an eye on the longer term trends. Here are some of my current thoughts on the matter, and if anyone has any further opinions or constructive criticism to add, they'll be gratefully received.

I'm loathe to discuss luck, lest I sound like a whinging gambler. It is important, however, to accept that luck always plays a key part in gambling, whether good or bad. During that magnificent 2008 run, I had more than my share of good luck. Players winning close contests with a great putt on the final hole, or opponents making a critical mistake on the final green. I'm reminded particularly of Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano winning the British Masters at 80/1 after several play-off holes, having repeatedly looked looked down and out.

Such things make or break a season, and this time the worm has completely turned. See at the bottom of this article, my list of wins and second places from 2009. Then compare them to the 2008 list. I've backed 24 runners-up this time, so given that each winner is worth an average of about 60 points, four winners would have covered the entire annual loss.

Whereas Castano, or 150/1 winner Felipe Aguilar built my reputation, I've had no such luck with the big priced candidates this time around. 125/1 chance Ross McGowan led by two with five to play before getting caught, 80/1 Peter Lawrie by a similar margin. 125/1 Scott Piercy led by four at one stage in the FBR Open, yet ended up returning virtually nothing in a five-way tie for 5th. Equally, Gareth Maybin has twice approached the closing holes with a winning chance at a big price, only to collapse and finish 6th. Narrowly missing the places has been a regular frustration this year, and again over the year, it really adds up.

Its impossible to estimate the exact impact, but I reckon the 'luck differential' between 2008 and 2009 must have been worth at least 400 points. However, it can't explain everything.

Much more can be explained by some of the results this year. I would feel a lot worse if I was missing winners every week, but many of this year's champions have been completely unbackable, particularly in Europe which is bad for me as I tend to lay out more on the Euro Tour. All four major winners were 100/1+ outsiders, and I would defy anyone to say they picked any of Wen-Tang Lin, Anthony Kang, Shane Lowry, Jeppe Huhldahl, Christian Cevear, Rafael Cabrera-Bello or Michael Jonzon in the week they won at enormous odds.

All of this, though frustrating, is a lesser concern to me than the wider lack of players in contention. Last week, eleven selections failed to produce a single top-10, and that to me is indefensible. But why? Is there something I'm doing differently?

I don't think so. I'm still using the same selection techniques, the same in-depth statistical analysis of each venue and the players concerned, yet its not producing anywhere near the same number of contenders.

Some of this may be explained by course conditions. It seems that more than ever in 2009, we've had wet golf courses, producing softened conditions and target golf, most memorably in the US Open. Those conditions tend to produce putting contests, and critically from my perspective, previous course form in drier conditions becomes almost irrelevant. Hopefully, this is a blip and normality will resume before long.

I realise it must be very frustrating to see the repeated selection of players who have let us down; see for instance Ian Poulter, Ross Fisher and Danny Willett. This is a real conundrum; knowing when to abandon a player. Earlier in the year, I tipped the promising Rafael Cabrera-Bello several times before abandoning him, only to see him pop up at an enormous price a couple of months later. In this last case though, I have no regrets as he was completely out of form.

A player like Willett is different though. Not only is he an outstanding prospect, but he has a very good return this year in terms of top-10 finishes and is normally available at decent odds. We did get a place at 90/1 at Celtic Manor, and that pays for quite a few losing bets, but overall he definitely deserves a payout week. My feeling is that, on certain types of course that favour his low-scoring game, he must be perservered with.

Fisher and Poulter are less clear-cut. With the former, the market has responded to his progress, and while he will eventually win again, he's too short to stick with blindly. However, Poulter's career win ratio is impressive, and I do believe he's improved markedly in the last 18 months. So I expect that Ian will be retained as a regular pick for some time.

Likewise, we must remember Paul Casey. During the summer of 2008, I identified Casey as a big improver and backed him several times at decent odds without success. Almost as soon as I stopped, he won three times in a short space of time and shot up to No.3 in the world. Frustratingly, I only backed one of those three wins, and that was at a much shorter price than we'd been used to just a few weeks earlier.

The other key factor worth mentioning is 'confidence'. Some gamblers try to take a more rigid, mathematical outlook but my years of gambling experience has left me sceptical of too rigid an approach. If the answers can be found mathematically, bookmakers will soon learn the right techniques too. With golf betting in particular, one needs to have a 'feel' for a course, or a tournament, or whether a player is 'overdue' a change of luck and a place payout.

This last point is the hardest thing to address, because nobody is immune to positive or negative thinking. When all is going well in gambling, its easy to be positive and that tends to produce good results. Likewise, the opposite is true. I'm still tearing myself apart over the penultimate two events, won by Lee Westwood and Martin Laird. Both were on my final shortlist, and both had been selected very recently. Ultimately though, both ever so slightly missed out on the final staking plan. Inevitably, one goes through the psychological torment of constantly re-assessing those decisions.

So what now? Its critically important not to panic. Largely, I think I'm doing the right things, and that they'll pay off in the long-term. All I can really say is that; I will continue to put in the hours, scour the formbook and apply these previously very successful strategies.

2009 WINNERS

NEDBANK CHALLENGE - HENRIK STENSON 7/1
OPEN DE ANDALUCIA - SOREN KJELDSEN 33/1
AP INVITATIONAL - TIGER WOODS 13/5
BALLANTINES C'SHIP - THONGCHAI JAIDEE 33/1
PLAYERS C'SHIP - HENRIK STENSON 50/1
BMW PGA C'SHIP - PAUL CASEY 16/1
ST JUDE CLASSIC - BRIAN GAY 35/1
BRITISH SENIORS OPEN - LOREN ROBERTS 20/1
BUICK OPEN - TIGER WOODS 15/8
WGC-BRIDGESTONE - TIGER WOODS 7/4

2009 RUNNERS-UP
　
MEMORIAL - JIM FURYK 25/1
SINGAPORE OPEN - ERNIE ELS 12/1
HONG KONG OPEN - FRANCESCO MOLINARI 45/1
DUNLOP PHOENIX - GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO 25/1
WORLD CUP - SPAIN 16/1
JOBURG OPEN - ANDREW MCLARDY 28/1
MERCEDES - ANTHONY KIM 9/1
ABU DHABI - MARTIN KAYMER 20/1
HEINEKEN - ROSS MCGOWAN 125/1
INDONESIAN OPEN - SIMON DYSON 20/1
INDONESIAN OPEN - ALEXANDER NOREN 25/1
AP INVITATIONAL - SEAN O'HAIR 33/1
PORTUGESE MASTERS - GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO 25/1
ST JUDE CLASSIC - DAVID TOMS 16/1
US OPEN - PHIL MICKELSON 20/1
TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP - DAVID TOMS 25/1
US BANK CHAMPIONSHIP - JOHN MALLINGER 33/1
BRITISH SENIORS OPEN - FRED FUNK 25/1
US SENIORS OPEN - GREG NORMAN 14/1
RENO-TAHOE OPEN - MARTIN LAIRD 66/1
KLM OPEN - PETER LAWRIE 66/1
BARCLAYS CLASSIC - ERNIE ELS 40/1
BARCLAYS CLASSIC - PADRAIG HARRINGTON 22/1
BMW CHAMPIONSHIP - JIM FURYK 25/1

　

World Snooker Championship Betting Preview

Forget Christmas, Easter and the rest, the best 17 days of the calendar are at last upon us in the form of the Betfred.com World Snooker Championships.

To look at the betting, it would be easy to conclude that snooker was a one-horse race. Defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan starts his bid for a fourth title at just 9/4, which I'm pretty sure is the shortest that this perennially under-priced character has ever been at Sheffield.

The reality is very different, pointing to a sport that is as wide open as ever. The eight top-grade tournaments this season have produced seven different winners, 13 different finalists and 19 different semi-finalists.

In making Ronnie such a short price, no doubt people are thinking back to last year, when the Rocket swept all before him without breaking out of a sweat. But there is one very good reason to expect things to be different this time around; the draw. Last year, the only realistic threat he faced on route to the final came from Mark Williams, and even his opponent in the final, Ali Carter, had never previously won a ranking tournament.

Ronnie's trouble over the years at Sheffield has been maintaining his focus for the full 17 days, tending to ruin his chance by losing one session badly in one of the longer, latter-stage matches. While his attitude has generally improved from its lowest points, (such as walking out of the 2006 UK Championship quarter-final), he is still not totally reliable. Its only five months since he effectively gave up against Joe Perry in that same event, conceding one frame when only 20 odd points behind. Those weaknesses weren't an issue last year, arguably because none of his opponents put him under any serious pressure. Even if Ronnie had lost interest in one match, he would have been too far in front for it to make a difference.

This time, I'm sure he will be tested on more than one occasion. First round opponent Stuart Bingham seems unlikely to present too many difficulties, but the likely opponents in every round afterwards are more than capable of capitalising should Ronnie start giving them opportunities. Probable last-16 opponent Mark Allen is an outstanding prospect, and well capable of winning their match. In the quarters, Ronnie would likely meet either Ryan Day, conquerer of the defending champion last year and undisputed holder of the "Best player never to have won a ranking event' title, or PETER EBDON.

Ebdon is particularly interesting. The 2002 champion had looked finished as a top-class player until bouncing back to win last month's China Open. There are few players better suited to the long, high-pressure matches of the Crucible than Ebdon, who has reached the quarters here a hugely impressive eleven times. It seems that as he's got older, Ebdon has saved all his best snooker for the spring.

Furthermore there is no love lost between him and Ronnie and should they meet in the quarters, parallels will inevitably be drawn with their 2005 clash at the same stage. On that occasion, slow-playing Ebdon drove his opponent to distraction and ground out a 13-11 win.

In truth, even if Ebdon could represent a bit of value at a nice price, I expect O'Sullivan to come through these early tests, though the danger is that they might take a lot out of him. And that could be costly in the latter stages, with his main rivals yet to come. If the draw pans out as expected, he will face either Mark Selby or John Higgins in the semis, either of whom would present a massive obstacle over the longer matches. Indeed, Higgins ended Ronnie's challenge two years ago on the way to his second title, and again in China last month.

I find it very hard to take a strong view about which player will reach the final from that top half of the draw. All three of those big-names hold strong chances, and there are several other potential challengers. I've already mentioned Day and Ebdon in Ronnie's quarter, and in the next section Joe Perry, Jamie Cope, Graeme Dott and Ricky Walden are all well capable of springing an upset.

All of this points to focussing most of my attention, and cash, on the other half of the draw instead. Having made a fool of myself tipping him in the past, I'm wary of going in too heavily on STEPHEN MAGUIRE, but its hard not to be attracted by his 8/1 quote. Quite simply, I cannot see anybody stopping Maguire reaching the quarter-finals, by which stage he will be a shorter price and hopefully have played himself into form.

Maguire is too good to go through his career without ever winning this title. (OK, I know the same could have been said about Jimmy White). On his day, he is a breakbuilding machine; comparable to Ronnie and Hendry at their peak. I was fortunate enough earlier in the season to witness his destruction of NEIL ROBERTSON in the Masters from close up, and it was as good a performance as I can remember. That's not the first time he's annihalated Robertson; Maguire hammered the Aussie star 8-0 in one session here last year. On that form, only Ronnie and perhaps Higgins could live with him. And he won't meet either of them until the final, if at all.

For all his talent, Stephen has let himself down at crucial moments at the Crucible. After despatching Robertson in last year's championship, he never found the same fluency in the quarter-final, enabling Joe Perry to cause the upset of the round. A year earlier, he led Higgins 14-10 going into the final session of the semi, only to crumble under pressure. Nevertheless, you have to think that at some stage in his career, 'On Fire' Maguire will put it all together when it matters.

After what look like a couple of straightforward rounds, Maguire is scheduled to meet either Carter or Robertson. Its hard to see anyone else in this bottom quarter reaching the semis, as all the qualifiers look weak. On this year's form Carter would have to be the pick, but at twice the odds Robbo looks slightly better value.

After all, while the 'Melbourne Machine' has rarely impressed this year apart from when winning the Bahrain Championship, he is a class act and has produced the goods at the Crucible before. Three years ago, he was painfully unlucky to lose to eventual winner Graeme Dott, and was edged out in a classic last-16 match against O'Sullivan in 2007. The suspicion with Robertson is that he's perhaps not the most dedicated professional over the whole year, but its worth taking a chance at these odds that he's ready for the season's premiere event.

The third quarter contains at least four plausible winners. 2005 champion Shaun Murphy is the shortest price to add to his UK title, and is greatly respected given an excellent record at the Crucible, which is close to his home. However, while I expect he'll trade at shorter odds, and should have little trouble getting past Andrew Higginson in round one, Murphy hasn't been particularly impressive this season, even when winning that UK title.

My view is that he could come a cropper against MARCO FU in the last-16. When the pair met in the UK final, Murphy edged out the Hong Kong player in a decider, but that miniscule difference isn't enough to warrant the wide disparity in their odds. Fu is arguably the most under-rated player around; not flashy by any means, but a very effective break-builder with a solid temperament. 33/1 certainly seems a big price for the player at No.7 in the provisional rankings.

Its frankly an insult to Fu, and others for that matter, that he is a bigger price than Ding Junhui. Ding's 20/1 quote seems based on the hype a couple of years back, when he was widely predicted to challenge O'Sullivan for the No.1 spot. Since breaking down in tears in the 2007 Masters final at Wembley, Ding hasn't reached a single ranking event semi-final and he arrives in Sheffield with his top-16 spot seriously in peril. The best bet of the first round could be fellow Chinese prodigy Liang Wenbo to take out his more famous opponent at 2/1, an upset that would ensure the odds about Maguire, Robertson and Fu all tumble.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

12pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 8/1 (GENERAL, 10.0 BETFAIR)
3pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 25/1 (GENERAL)
3pts ew MARCO FU @ 33/1 (SPORTINGBET, STANJAMES, BETFRED, PADDYPOWER, CENTREBET)
1.5pts ew PETER EBDON @ 40/1 (GENERAL)

N.B. As well as several pre-tournament articles, I shall also be writing a daily tips column for the Betfair blog. They can be found at http://betting.betfair.com

Masters Snooker Preview

Despite the fact that it carries no ranking points, the Masters remains one of the most prestigious events in the snooker calendar, probably 3rd behind the World and UK Championships. Rightly so too, as this is the only tournament where all the top-ranked players are guaranteed to reach the last-16 stage. Normally, at least five or six bite the dust in the previous round, usually opening up the draw for lesser names to reach the latter stages. There's also the fact that there is only one table in use throughout, adding a further championship feel to the venue.

It all adds up to a tournament where the formbook has consistently stood up over the years. Nobody has won from beyond fourth place in the betting since the late Paul Hunter won the first of his three Masters titles in 2001, and that was hardly a massive surprise. Just as Stephen Hendry dominated this event when he ruled the snooker world back in the 1990s, RONNIE O'SULLIVAN has very much been 'Top Dog' at Wembley in recent years. Three times champion to date, Ronnie's last five Masters have produced two titles and two runners-up spots, losing deciding frames in the final on both occasions. Even last year's first-round exit was hardly a disgrace, as it came at the hands of World No.2 Stephen Maguire, again in a decider. This venue, near enough to enable him to return home between matches, generally seems to bring out the best of O'Sullivan in front of an adoring crowd.

As always, Ronnie is a very unreliable betting proposition. As far as I can recall, this is the first time I've ever tipped him before an event. Because of his massive popularity, Ronnie nearly always starts at terrible value odds. This was always the case in the 33 months that he went without winning a ranking title up until December 2007. However, on his form since then 3/1 is a perfectly reasonable price, with three ranking titles during that period including a third World Championship. Indeed had he defended his UK title last month, I doubt Ronnie would be starting at more than 2/1 now. He didn't win that event though, courtesy of a disastrous session that instantly rekindled memories of past misdemeanours. Having looked in quite awesome form in the first part of the match, he lost the last seven frames to Joe Perry, including one conceded when just 23 points down with several reds remaining.

That was indefensible, and has to be factored in as a possibility whenever considering a bet on O'Sullivan. And it doesn't help that he is drawn to meet Perry, who was quite outstanding in that session, in the first round at Wembley. This looks poised to be a great match, as even before the Telford result, their last two matches had gone to a deciding frame. I fancy Ronnie to win, playing impressively, and sparking a typically massive gamble. Remember the last time Ronnie let himself down in the UK Championships, when walking out of the 2006 quarter-final? His response was a determined, disciplined performance at Wembley, slaughtering Ding Junhui in the final. History could well repeat itself.

Though there are many other potential challengers, none have consistently shown their best form for a while. Maguire looks the main threat in Ronnie's half of the draw, and has at least reached a couple of semis this year, but still played some pretty erratic snooker when reaching that position in Telford. Nevertheless, he should reach the semis again at least.

Shaun Murphy turned a terrible run around to win that latest event, though again hasn't convinced me that he's at quite the consistent standard seen throughout 2007. Murphy's draw is anything but straightforward too, snared in a quarter that includes four plausible winners in the form of himself, Ding, Grand Prix champion John Higgins and Telford runner-up Marco Fu. Expect a series of close matches to determine that mini-race to the semi-final.

It would be easy to make a case for defending champion Mark Selby, were it not for single-figured odds. He's clearly a class performer bubbling under the surface, ready to return to his world-class best at any time. It may be of some relevance that Selby last week won the first group of the latest Championship League, so there is some very recent form in the book. And if he can repeat his superb performance in the Premier League semi when thrashing Hendry 5-0, I doubt anybody could live with Selby. But looking purely at results, he's simply not reliable enough to take such short prices about. After all, the Masters remains one of only two professional titles to his name. Even his first-round doesn't look entirely straightforward, as both potential opponents have beaten him in big matches recently; Ricky Walden in the Shanghai Masters semi-final and Mark King in the World Championship.

In the same top quarter, I prefer MARK ALLEN. I'm convinced this prolific break-builder is going to the very top, and am determined to stay loyal until he wins his first event. While he's available at 33/1 that remains a perfectly legitimate strategy. Moreover, I make him the bet of the first round to beat fellow prodigy Judd Trump at 8/11. The pair met in the penultimate ranking tournament in Bahrain, with Allen scoring a resounding 5-1 win. No doubt Trump is a star of the future, but for me he still looks very tactically naive. At this stage, Allen looks further ahead on their respective roads to the top.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

20pts win RONNIE O'SULLIVAN @ 3/1 (CORAL, BETFAIR, (11/4 BOYLESPORTS, REFUND IF MURPHY WINS)
3pts ew MARK ALLEN @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 35/1 BOYLESPORTS)

ROUND 1

15pts MARK ALLEN @ 8/11 (VS TRUMP) (GENERAL)

N.B. I shall also be writing a daily tipping column for the Betfair blog throughout the tournament, which can be found here http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/masters/

Weekly Golf Betting Column Latest

Just a quick reminder for fans of my weekly golf column that it can be viewed free of charge online at www.golf-monthly.co.uk every Wednesday. I am also writing for the Betfair blog at http://betting.betfair.com including two regular golf columns every Tuesday, plus a wide range of preview and in-running articles for all the Major tournaments as well as the big snooker events. Also starting today, I shall be writing a weekly preview of the golf speciality markets for www.puntingace.com

My best season to date recently got even better, when Gonzalo Fernandez Castano became my second 100/1+ winner of the 2008 campaign in the British Masters. The annual staking plan is now showing a profit of 564 points with just a few weeks to go. Highlights this season include:

GONZALO FERNANDEZ CASTANO WON 100/1 BRITISH MASTERS
CAMILO VILLEGAS WON 33/1 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP
DARREN CLARKE WON 40/1 KLM OPEN
PAUL MCGINLEY 2ND 40/1 KLM OPEN
LEE WESTWOOD 2ND 40/1 WGC-BRIDGESTONE INVITATIONAL
ANTONY KIM WON 28/1 A T & T NATIONAL
KENNY PERRY WON 12/1 BUICK OPEN
COLIN MONTGOMERIE 2ND 55/1 FRENCH OPEN
TIGER WOODS WON 11/4 US OPEN
JUSTIN LEONARD WON 33/1 ST JUDE CLASSIC
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH WON 20/1 AUSTRIAN OPEN
KENNY PERRY WON 33/1 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
OLIVER WILSON 2ND 33/1 ITALIAN OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 12/1 BYRON NELSON CHAMPIONSHIP
AARON BADDELEY 2ND 28/1 HERITAGE CLASSIC
GRAEME MCDOWELL WON 30/1 BALLANTINES CHAMPIONSHIP
JOHN SENDEN 2nd 80/1 HONDA CLASSIC
BRIAN GAY WON 80/1 MAYAKOBA CLASSIC
FELIPE AGUILAR WON 150/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH 2nd 33/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
MARTIN KAYMER WON 60/1 ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP
RICHARD STERNE WON 16/1 JOBURG OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 16/1 QATAR MASTERS
PETER LONARD WON 14/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
DAVID SMAIL 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
BRANDT SNEDEKER 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
AARON BADDELEY WON 10/1 MASTERCARD MASTERS
MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ WON 25/1 HONG KONG OPEN
ROSS FISHER 2nd 100/1 HSBC CHAMPIONS TROPHY
IAN POULTER WON 14/1 DUNLOP PHOENIX OPEN
SCOTLAND WON 25/1 WORLD CUP

And don't forget, I also offer a comprehensive subscription-based tipping service including a month's free trial to start. Anyone interested should contact me at paulmotty@hotmail.com

Golf Betting Column Update

Just a quick reminder for fans of my weekly golf column that it can be viewed free of charge online at www.golf-monthly.co.uk every Wednesday. I am also writing regular betting articles for the Betfair blog at http://betting.betfair.com including two regular columns on Tuesday, plus a wide range of preview and in-running articles for all the Major tournaments.

My season's statistics continue to thrive. After last weekend's success, when I advised Camilo Villegas to win the BMW Championship at 33/1, my annual staking plan is showing a profit of 573 points. Highlights this season include:

CAMILO VILLEGAS WON 33/1 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP
DARREN CLARKE WON 40/1 KLM OPEN
PAUL MCGINLEY 2ND 40/1 KLM OPEN
LEE WESTWOOD 2ND 40/1 WGC-BRIDGESTONE INVITATIONAL
ANTONY KIM WON 28/1 A T & T NATIONAL
KENNY PERRY WON 12/1 BUICK OPEN
COLIN MONTGOMERIE 2ND 55/1 FRENCH OPEN
TIGER WOODS WON 11/4 US OPEN
JUSTIN LEONARD WON 33/1 ST JUDE CLASSIC
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH WON 20/1 AUSTRIAN OPEN
KENNY PERRY WON 33/1 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
OLIVER WILSON 2ND 33/1 ITALIAN OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 12/1 BYRON NELSON CHAMPIONSHIP
AARON BADDELEY 2ND 28/1 HERITAGE CLASSIC
GRAEME MCDOWELL WON 30/1 BALLANTINES CHAMPIONSHIP
JOHN SENDEN 2nd 80/1 HONDA CLASSIC
BRIAN GAY WON 80/1 MAYAKOBA CLASSIC
FELIPE AGUILAR WON 150/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH 2nd 33/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
MARTIN KAYMER WON 60/1 ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP
RICHARD STERNE WON 16/1 JOBURG OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 16/1 QATAR MASTERS
PETER LONARD WON 14/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
DAVID SMAIL 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
BRANDT SNEDEKER 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
AARON BADDELEY WON 10/1 MASTERCARD MASTERS
MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ WON 25/1 HONG KONG OPEN
ROSS FISHER 2nd 100/1 HSBC CHAMPIONS TROPHY
IAN POULTER WON 14/1 DUNLOP PHOENIX OPEN
SCOTLAND WON 25/1 WORLD CUP

And don't forget, I also offer a comprehensive subscription-based tipping service including a month's free trial to start. Anyone interested should contact me at paulmotty@hotmail.com

Weekly Golf Betting Column Latest

Just a quick reminder for fans of my weekly golf column that it can be viewed free of charge online at www.golf-monthly.co.uk every Wednesday. I am also writing regular betting articles for the Betfair blog at http://betting.betfair.com including two regular columns on Tuesday, plus a wide range of preview and in-running articles for all the Major tournaments.

The latest weekend was a particular highlight of what has been a memorable year to date for the weekly column, as I tipped both winners either side of the Atlantic. Jeev-Milkha Singh was advised at 20/1 to win the Austrian Open, while Justin Leonard won the St Jude Classic at 33/1. Highlights this season include:

JUSTIN LEONARD WON 33/1 ST JUDE CLASSIC
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH WON 20/1 AUSTRIAN OPEN
KENNY PERRY WON 33/1 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
OLIVER WILSON 2ND 33/1 ITALIAN OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 12/1 BYRON NELSON CHAMPIONSHIP
AARON BADDELEY 2ND 28/1 HERITAGE CLASSIC
GRAEME MCDOWELL WON 30/1 BALLANTINES CHAMPIONSHIP
JOHN SENDEN 2nd 80/1 HONDA CLASSIC
BRIAN GAY WON 80/1 MAYAKOBA CLASSIC
FELIPE AGUILAR WON 150/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH 2nd 33/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
MARTIN KAYMER WON 60/1 ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP
RICHARD STERNE WON 16/1 JOBURG OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 16/1 QATAR MASTERS
PETER LONARD WON 14/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
DAVID SMAIL 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
BRANDT SNEDEKER 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
AARON BADDELEY WON 10/1 MASTERCARD MASTERS
MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ WON 25/1 HONG KONG OPEN
ROSS FISHER 2nd 100/1 HSBC CHAMPIONS TROPHY
IAN POULTER WON 14/1 DUNLOP PHOENIX OPEN
SCOTLAND WON 25/1 WORLD CUP

And don't forget, I also offer a comprehensive subscription-based tipping service including a month's free trial to start. Anyone interested should contact me at paulmotty@hotmail.com

Euro 2008 Portfolio

When Greece won the last Euros, it was widely interpreted as a massive shock. Of course they did start as rank outsiders so in that sense it was a shock, but I recall several shrewd characters who thought they were under-rated beforehand and duly profitted. They certainly weren't unbackable.

It has become an indisputable fact that international football, especially the final knockout stages of tournaments, is far more wide open than the betting suggests. Austria are completely out of their depth, but besides them and perhaps the other hosts Switzerland, there is very little to choose between the rest.

In my view, the main reason is that, in stark contrast to club football where the cheque book and transfer market dictate success, international football remains a test of coaching, strategy and team unity. Even the biggest countries are forced to pick from the players available, unable to dig themselves out of a hole with a multi-million pound signing. There are numerous examples over the last two decades - Greece, Czech Republic, Turkey, Denmark, Republic of Ireland - of teams that had very limited strength of depth on paper, but overachieved because of the continuity and spirit within their set-up.

As usual, my plan is to look for value trades on teams that have the ability to reach the latter stages and see their odds shorten dramatically. Examination of the draw is essential. One finalist will come from Groups A and B, one from C and D. The first of those halves contains Austria and Switzerland, who are hard to fancy. Austria are no-hopers, well worth taking on heavily in each game. Without being hosts, they wouldn't have had a prayer of qualifying. The Swiss are somewhat better - in fact I backed them in various forms to do well at the last world cup and they did qualify for the last-16. However, their supposed home advantage, (lets face it, the Swiss aren't known for creating a hostile atmosphere!), is more than adequately reflected in their odds.

Of the other six in that half, Germany stand out. Coach Joachim Low is widely credited as being the coaching brain behind their impressive 2006 World Cup campaign, which was headed by Jurgen Klinsmann. The pair added attacking brilliance to Germany's infamous efficient qualities, and saw massive improvement. Klose, Podolski and Ballack are all expected to make their mark on the scoresheet. In a group with Austria, Croatia and Poland, its very hard to see them not progressing to the latter stages. But are they any value at 4/1? Probably not, though they're a must for any combinations in the 'Name the Finalists' market. And I love the 4/5 available on Germany scoring 8 or more tournament goals with Betfair. They are capable of making that total in the group stages, let alone over the probable five or six games.

The other three fancied sides in that half - at least fancied by the market to progress - are Portugal, Czech Republic and Croatia. In all three cases though, any value may have gone. I did very nicely in 2004 out of trading Portugal and the Czechs at nice prices through till the semi-finals, though this time everyone rates them accordingly. Under Scolari, Portugal have become a very hard side to beat, and reliable in the major championships. However, they've also rarely turned on the style during his leadership. Christiano Ronaldo, in particular, has rarely looked a patch of his Man Utd self at international level. This side massively underperformed in the semis of both the last World Cup and Euros, so make no appeal to me at short-prices. Like Germany though, they must be taken seriously as potential finalists from this draw.

Under the brilliant stewardship of Karel Brueckner, the Czechs have become a major force in international football. In 2004, I felt they were the best team and a little unlucky, hitting the woodwork on several occasions against Greece in the semis. They qualified impressively again, and have never looked notably inferior when up against other top sides. However on the downside, there must be a danger that the Koller/Baros front-line is getting a bit long in the tooth and without Nedved, Rosicky or Poborsky I doubt they'll represent the same threat this time.

My lack of confidence in these two makes TURKEY a must-bet at 3.35 to qualify from Group A. Why they are more than whole a point higher than the Swiss is a mystery to me. Its six years since they reached the World Cup semis, and nobody would deny that they haven't matched that level since. But they remain a competitive force against any European side. Their record in qualification wasn't as impressive as some others, but then they were in a much more competitive group than most. Its not so much that I think Turkey are particularly brilliant, rather they rate as big value at the odds. Beyond just qualifying, 66/1 is a huge each-way price. No way on earth should the real odds on them reaching the final be 33/1. Theoretically to achieve that, they could be required to qualify from that group, followed by ties against Poland and the Czechs. If we can get them through to the last eight, that each-way bet will be a valuable position to hold.

Also with regard to Group A, I think there will be very few goals, making Boylesports 15/8 about less than 13 goals from the six group games a decent bet. Portugal and the Czechs both have miserly defensive records, and it is in this department that the Swiss and Turkey are at their best. Indeed, the latter pair's main weakness is an inability to score. I can see plenty of 0-0 and 1-0 scorelines here.

Group C is this year's 'Group of Death', with Italy, Holland, France and Romania. The last-named are no rags by any means, with a fine qualification record and rock-solid defence. Italy are seriously respected as potential winners, but France look to me the team to oppose. They no longer have Zidane and Henry is a pale shadow of his former self, and few coaches in the tournament instill less confidence than Raymond Domenech. If you take away a Zidane-inspired return to their best in the latter stages of the World Cup, France have been disappointing for several years. They only just qualified because Scotland failed against Georgia. I just cannot have them as 1.63 chances to qualify from that brutal group, and strongly recommend laying it.

Its in Group D where we find my main outright bet, RUSSIA. Spain are all the rage here, as short as second-favourites purely on the basis of the individuals in their squad. But how often has the team with the best individuals won these tournaments? Not many is the answer, though more times than the Spanish have produced their best at a major tournament. Any team with Torres, Fabregas and the rest deserves respect, but in my view they simply have to be opposed at those odds.

The other three teams in that group are Russia, Greece and Sweden. Greece have broadly the same outfit that won last time, and certainly have the capability to qualify again. It will surely be much harder second time around though. As for Sweden, they're a team that I urgently want to oppose. They are another ageing side, (that still includes Freddie Ljundberg!), and are rated too heavily on past performances and qualifying. Its worth noting that the group that Spain and Sweden qualified from was absolutely dire - Northern Ireland held a chance of qualifying close to the end.

Russia, who qualified ahead of decent sides in England and Israel, have a great chance of reaching the latter stages. They have the best coach in the event, Guus Hiddink, and remember its only a few weeks since a Russian side won the UEFA Cup. Should they qualify as expected, their odds of 28/1 would reduce dramatically and they would hold a decent chance against the rest.

Finally, as alluded to above, the 'Name the Finalists' market could also offer some trading value. I'm having four bets, covering permutations of Germany and Portugal from the top-half, plus Italy and Russia from the bottom at the combined odds of roughly 9/2. I'm confident that come the quarter-final stages and beyond this will offer a chance to close out for profit if desired.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

OUTRIGHT

10pts ew RUSSIA @ 28/1 (STAN JAMES, BETDIRECT, BETFRED, TOTE)
3pts ew TURKEY @ 66/1 (PADDY POWER, SKYBET)

GROUP A

15pts TURKEY TO QUALIFY @ 3.35 (BETFAIR)
8pts UNDER 13 GROUP GOALS @ 15/8 (BOYLES)

GROUP B

15pts GERMANY TO SCORE OVER 7.5 GOALS @ 4/5 (BET365)

GROUP C

LAY FRANCE 30pts TO QUALIFY @ 1.63 (BETFAIR) OR 6/4 NOT TO QUALIFY (HILLS)

NOMINATE THE FINALISTS

10pts GERMANY/ITALY @ 11/1 (STAN JAMES, BETDIRECT)
6pts PORTUGAL/ITALY @ 18/1 (TOTE)
2pts GERMANY/RUSSIA @ 55/1 (HILLS)
2pts PORTUGAL/RUSSIA @ 80/1 (BET365, HILLS, SPORTINGBET)